4 Winning Years Ahead for Traders Under TrumpOn November 5, 2024, the markets made it loud and clear—they’re excited about Donald J. Trump’s return to office. Stocks, the dollar, and other key assets all responded with strong moves that reflect investor confidence in what his policies might bring. Compare this to the last few years under Biden, and the difference is striking. The market barely budged during Biden’s presidency; even when he contracted COVID-19, it was business as usual. With Trump back, though, there’s an undeniable surge of optimism. Let’s look at what’s happening across the major assets and what it could mean for us traders in the days ahead.
S&P 500 (SPX)
The S&P 500 spiked from $5,704 to $6,018 on election night—a powerful rally that signals investor optimism. It seems the market is embracing Trump’s expected focus on tax cuts and pro-business policies. This kind of jump doesn’t happen without a reason; investors are clearly betting that Trump’s return will be good for corporate America and, by extension, for the economy.
Gold (XAU/USD)
In times of uncertainty, gold usually rallies as investors look for safe havens. But on election night, we saw the opposite: XAU/USD dropped from $2,750 to $2,643 per troy ounce. This decline tells us that investors feel less inclined to hedge their bets with gold, opting instead for assets tied to economic growth. When people pull out of safe havens, it's often a sign they’re feeling pretty good about what’s ahead.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar had its own rally, with the DXY climbing from 103.3 to 105.4. This spike reflects confidence in the U.S. economy’s potential under Trump’s leadership. With the dollar gaining strength, it’s clear that investors expect strong economic fundamentals and possibly higher interest rates—both of which could keep the dollar in demand.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
The Dow also rallied, jumping from $41,649 to $44,173. This boost is especially interesting because it reflects optimism in sectors like manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure—industries Trump has supported in the past. Investors are likely betting on policy moves that could provide a lift to U.S. industries, potentially driving corporate profits higher.
WTI Crude Oil (WTI)
Looking forward, I’m expecting WTI prices to come under pressure as Trump likely revisits his focus on domestic oil production. If he revives the “drill, baby, drill” approach, we could see supply levels increase, which would weigh on prices. This potential shift in energy policy is something to keep an eye on, as it could create fresh trading opportunities.
The Big Picture
From stocks to the dollar, the market’s reaction seems to signal that Trump’s return is seen as positive for growth and stability. Reflecting on his previous term, I remember trading seemed almost simpler—beyond economic reports, following Trump’s statements (especially on Twitter) often gave insight into market sentiment. We might be looking at a similar environment now.
Final Thoughts for Traders
Trump’s re-election sets the stage for market dynamics we’ve seen before, with a familiar blend of optimism and volatility. For traders, this could mean more straightforward strategies, particularly by keeping an eye on policy shifts and economic indicators. With Trump’s leadership back in play, I believe the next four years could be some of the best trading years we’ve seen. Whether you’re in stocks, commodities, or forex, it’s clear the market is responding—and as traders, there’s a lot we can take away from that.
Dowjones
TRUMP is the 47th President! Is this bullish for the markets?Donald Trump is the new (47th) President of the United States, coming into office for his 2nd time. The practical question on the investor's mind is of course how will the stock markets react?
Even though there is no definitive way to approach this, the fact that Trump will resume power for a 2nd term, gives us a historic data set to have grounds for comparison. Fundamentally anything can be discussed on policies and strategies etc but technically the picture is more objective.
As you can see on this Dow Jones (DJI) chart displayed on the 1W time-frame, Trump's 1st Presidential win was on November 08 2016. At that time, the market was trading within a Channel Up that started after a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) double test on January 19 and February 08 2016. Right before the Elections, the index experienced a natural 'Pre-election volatility' phase.
The picture during the current election period isn't very different from 2016. As you can see, Dow started a Channel Up pattern after a 1W MA200 test and half-way through the year started to experience the usual 'Pre-election volatility' phase. During that time both in 2024 and 2016, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting and stayed intact. Notice how even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are similar from the time the Channel Up started until the elections.
So naturally you are asking what does that mean for us moving forward? Well after the November 08 2016 elections and Trump's 1st win, Dow started to rise aggressively immediately and by March 2017 it almost reached the patterns top (Higher Highs trend-line) before the new medium-term relief pull-back. The post-election Bull Phase was concluded in January 2018, upon completing a +71% rise from the Channel's bottom and 7.0 Fibonacci extension from the volatility phase.
So if symmetry acts its part, we may see 47000 by March 2025 and 55000 (+71% from the October 2023 bottom) by the end of 2025. Is this projection definitive? Of course not, nothing is 'absolute' in investing/ trading. But history has shown that the stock market has reacted more than positively after the U.S. elections, particularly in the case of a Trump win.
What do you think? Will Trump's 2nd term be bullish?
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US30 H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 42,767.06, a pullback resistance close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 42,175.76, a pullback support.
The stop loss will be placed at 43,368.92, which is a swing-high resistance."
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US30 Outlook: Bearish Below 41,970 Amid U.S. Election VolatilityUS30 Technical Analysis
Sustained stability below 41,970 will reinforce the bearish trend, potentially driving the price toward 41,750. Further stability below this level could extend the decline to 41,560.
Bearish Scenario: A firm hold below 41,970 signals a continuation of the bearish trend, with targets at 41,740 and subsequently 41,560.
Bullish Scenario: Conversely, a breakout above 42,130 would indicate a shift to a bullish trend, aiming for 42,290 and 42,450.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 41970
Resistance Levels: 42130, 42290, 42450
Support Levels: 41750, 41560, 41340
Trend Outlook:
- Bearish by stability below 41970
- Bullish by breaking above 42130
previous idea:
DOW JONES Quick sell signal before the elections result.Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Down since October 21st.
Following the rejection on the MA200 (1h), it started the new bearish wave.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 41400 (-2.70% decline like the first bearish wave of the Channel).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is also printing a Rising Support pattern like the one during the previous bearish wave.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Dow breaks key 42,000 supportThe Dow has broken key support around 42000 as per the hourly chart above. The breakdown could lead to more selling pressure as we near the US presidential election, which is finally weighing on sentiment given how close the polls are. The DJIA has already broken a bullish trend line, so the path of least resistance in the next 24-48 hours is likely to be to the downside.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
DreamAnalysis | Dow Jones Focus Key Levels and Strategic Moves✨ Today’s Focus: Dow Jones (US30) – A Major Market Influencer
We’re diving into the latest NASDAQ price action to pinpoint crucial levels, assess potential trends, and uncover strategic trading opportunities.
📊 Market Overview:
Currently, Dow Jones is positioned in a Discount. The price has broken through significant Seel-side liquidity levels, including the Relative Equal Lows Taken and now is having a retracement back higher, setting the stage for a potential move toward the Previous Week High ( PWH ). A Bullish Smart Money Technique (SMT) signal also aligns with the SPX500 (ES), hinting at possible headwinds.
🔴 Short- and Long-Term Outlook:
We’ll explore both bullish and bearish setups, equipping day traders with insights to approach both short-term and long-term trends effectively.
🗣 Short-Term Outlook:
In the short term, two scenarios could play out: either a push into the Buy Side Liquidity targeting the Previous Week High ( PWH ) and after that leading to a lower move. Lower timeframes will be crucial for monitoring these moves—drop down to spot key market movements in real-time.
🗣 Long-Term Outlook:
Looking long term, there’s potential for a pullback into a Premium level. For entries, tracking lower timeframes is essential. The Bullish SMT divergence with SPX500 (ES) reinforces the possibility of a Upward expansion.
🕓 Key Levels to Watch:
These levels will likely shape price movement:
- PMH: Previous Month High
- PML: Previous Month Low
- PWH: Previous Week High
- PWL: Previous Week Low
- BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity
- SSL: Sell-Side Liquidity
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) serve as pivotal retracement zones, potentially guiding the next price movement.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
In a bullish setup, watch for Low-Resistance Sell-Side Liquidity sweeps on lower timeframes (LTF). Look for entry signals targeting higher levels, including a potential move toward the all-time high (ATH).
📉 Bearish Scenario:
For bearish trades, focus on lower timeframes such as the 15-minute chart. Short entries within the 4-Hour Imbalance or a breakdown of Low-Resistance Buy-Side Liquidity provide further confirmation.
📝 Final Thoughts:
Stay adaptable as market dynamics shift. By monitoring these key levels and setups, you’ll refine your strategy and increase the potential for high-probability trades.
🔮 On the Radar:
We’re also tracking NASDAQ, DXY, EUR/USD, and other major markets for evolving insights and timely updates.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
XAU/USD : Another Bullish Move Ahead? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Gold chart in the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that, as expected last night, gold showed an upward movement with the market opening. After maintaining its position above the noted support level, it reached the targets of $2739 and $2744. Currently, gold is trading around $2742, and we’ll need to watch over the next two hours to see if it can stabilize above this level.
The key demand zones are $2738.6-$2739.7 and $2727-$2733, while the important supply zones are $2747, $2752, and $2757.
SasanSeifi| Where is the Next Support?Hey there, ✌ In the 10-hour timeframe, the Dow Jones Index has been correcting from the 43,300 price range. With a structural break around the 42,700 to 42,500 zone, the price entered a corrective phase, reaching down to 41,700. Currently, it is trading around 42,000.
The general outlook leans more towards a bearish scenario. One potential scenario is that after some slight upward fluctuations or sideways movement, if the 42,500 supply zone doesn’t break, we may see further correction to lower levels around 41,400 and 41,300. Following this, a range-bound movement is possible upon reaching these levels.
Should there be a correction in the price trend, it’s important to watch the price reactions in these zones to better understand the continuation of the movement. Additionally, if demand picks up and the critical 42,500 level breaks and holds, we could see a further price rise toward the 42,700 and 43,000 levels.
💢This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
US30Regarding Us30 two situations may take place however the end is the same ( falling)
Situation one : retracement from 41848 or 41452 level
To 42494 and continue to fall
Situation two : retracement from above mentioned levels
To higher high at 43389 forming a double top pattern and end up to fall .
The accending channel is broken so situation two is acceptable for me .
The Walt Disney Company - monthly (log)Hello community,
A look at the Walt Disney stock in monthly, still in log.
Bullish channel since 1970.
The trend is really magnificent, price respects its regression channel, a textbook case.
The trend is your friend as they say in Trend Following.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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Dow Jones Index (US30): Support & Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest support & resistance analysis for US30.
Resistance 1: 42450 - 42720 area
Resistance 2: 43280 - 43310 area
Support 1: 41616 - 41886 area
Support 2: 40850 - 41182 area
Support 3: 40000 - 40240 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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DOW JONES Channel Up near its bottom. Solid buy.Dow Jones / US30 is trading inside a Channel Up since late August.
The price is about to enter the buy zone of the pattern.
The previous bearish leg made a -3.81% correction before it bottomed and initiated the bullish leg to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
We expect a strong rebound from the current prices, so buy and target 44100 (just under the 1.618 Fib).
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US30 / Dow Jones Buys!!!Analysis Confirmation
1. Fibonacci Levels: I’ve marked the 0.618, 0.786, and 1.618 Fibonacci levels, which align well with potential reversal and target areas. The 0.618 level at approximately 42,327 acts as support, while the 0.786 level around 42,479 provides additional confirmation near the breakout point.
2. Descending Triangle Breakout: Your chart shows a descending triangle with the resistance trendline below the 42,500 area, indicating a potential breakout if the price can close above it. This pattern suggests bearish exhaustion, so a breakout above the trendline could initiate a bullish move.
3. Target Levels: You’ve set the 1.618 and 2.618 Fibonacci extension levels as potential targets, at approximately 42,884 and 43,374 respectively. These strong resistance zones give realistic take-profit levels if the breakout occurs.
4. Moving Averages and Support: The price is supported by the 200-period moving average (black line) and is currently testing the 50-period moving average (blue line). A break and hold above the 50-period moving average could signify bullish strength.
Trade Description
Entry:
- Enter a buy position on a confirmed breakout above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level around 42,479. Look for a strong close above this level to confirm momentum.
Stop Loss:
- Set a stop loss below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, around 42,340, to manage risk in case of a pullback or false breakout.
Take Profit:
- First target: 1.618 Fibonacci extension level around 42,884, which could serve as the initial resistance.
- Second target: 2.618 Fibonacci extension level around 43,374, if bullish momentum continues.
Risk Management:
- Keep your risk per trade low, ideally around 1-2% of your account balance, especially if this is part of your account growth strategy.
I see the Dow Jones index going down soon!Considering the political developments in the world as well as the upcoming American elections, and on the other hand, according to the economic data published in the last few weeks, it seems that the Dow Jones index will start to move downwards from this price point! The long-term target is specified in the chart
Dow Jones IndustrialHello community,
A short daily analysis of the famous Dow Jones Industrial.
As long as we stay above the red line at 41832 points, there is not much to worry about.
However, if we break this level, it is another story.
I drew a Fibonacci, to have the levels.
The market is nervous with the Trump and Kamala duel.
The trend is still bullish, because we are above the simple average of the 200 periods!
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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Dow Jones Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 41900 zone, Dow Jones is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 41900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
DOW JONES Bottom is being formed. Buy for 44000 immediate TargetDow Jones (DJI) eventually made a bullish break-out on our last analysis (October 08, see chart below) and hit our 43200 invalidation Target:
The 3-month Channel Up is still holding and the price is now on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and near the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern. The 4H RSI has completed a bottoming sequence similar to the September 11 Higher Low.
As long as the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) supports (closes 1D candles above), this will be a buy opportunity. Our Target is 44000, which is the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, similar with the previous Higher High.
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