Mid-Week Market Report: Post-FOMC Results, Forecast UPDATES!Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024
This video will cover the updates to the Weekly Forecasts videos posted last Saturday.
With the Fed deciding to cut the rates 50 basis points, there was some volatility injected into the markets, resulting our targets being achieve!
Also, we will forecast the SP500, NAS100, DJI, GOLD, SILVER, US & uk OIL markets! So watxh until the end of the video!
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Dowjones
"Hindenburg's Omen" to predict a stock market crash."Hindenburg's Omen" to predict a stock market crash.
"Hindenburg's Omen" is a technical indicator in financial analysis designed to predict a potential significant decline or a stock market crash.
Here are the main things to remember about this indicator:
Definition and origin
Introduced by Jim Miekka in the 1990s.
Named after the Hindenburg airship disaster in 1937, symbolizing an unexpected disaster.
How it works
- Hindenburg's Omen is triggered when several conditions are met simultaneously on a stock market:
- A high number of stocks reaching both new highs and lows over 52 weeks (usually more than 2.2% of stocks).
- The number of new highs must not exceed twice the number of new lows.
- The stock index must be in an upward trend (positive 50-day or 10-week moving average).
-The McClellan Oscillator (sentiment indicator) should be negative.
Interpretation
-When these conditions are met, the Omen suggests underlying market instability and an increased risk of a significant decline.
-The signal remains active for 30 trading days.
Reliability
-The indicator has correctly signaled some historical crashes, such as the one in 1987.
-However, its reliability is questionable as it also produces many false signals.
Usage
-Generally used in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis to confirm sell signals.
Traders can use it to adjust their positions or as an alert for increased market monitoring.
It is important to note that, like any technical indicator, the Hindenburg Omen is not infallible and should be used with caution, in conjunction with other analytical tools.
In the following photos, a harmonic "BLACK SWAN" pattern was detected on the DOW JONES, announcing a stock market crash or a strong correction!
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to resistance area 41687. Dear colleagues, I believe that the correction in the wave “2” has already taken place and therefore the impulse wave “3” has started, which according to the rules of wave analysis should reach the resistance area 41687.
This is possible in 2 cases:
1) wave 1 has not been formed yet
2) after wave 2 in wave 3 (then this level will be reached 2 times).
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Dow Jones Index (US30): What to Expect from FOMC?
Dow Jones Index is very weak ahead of FOMC today.
The market is stuck within a horizontal range on a 4h time frame.
Depending on the reaction of the price to its boundaries,
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If the price breaks and closes above 41820 - the resistance of the range,
we can expect a bullish continuation at least to 42000 level.
Bearish Scenario
A bearish breakout and a candle close below 41440
will push the price lower at least to 41200 level.
Wait for FOMC and then follow the market after a breakout.
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XAU/USD : Will Gold Fall More ? (READ THE CAPTION)As observed, gold fluctuated within the supply zone of $2579 to $2589 yesterday and finally managed to close and stabilize below $2579. Afterward, gold experienced an 80-pip decline, correcting down to $2572, and is currently trading around $2574. If the price stabilizes below $2577, we can expect further declines in gold, with potential targets at $2571, $2565, and $2555, respectively. (This analysis will be updated)
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
DOW JONES Is a post Fed decline valid before an October rally?The day has come when the Fed will finally cut the Interest Rates for the first time since the early 2022 hike cycle and the question in the market is whether it will be by -0.25% or -0.5%.
High volatility is expected intra-day but technically Dow Jones (DJI) remains within an uptrend (Channel Up) both medium-term (5-months) and long-term (2 years). The last support and bounce was offered by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on September 11 and that broke the remarkable symmetry that the index had so far with the March - August 2023 fractal.
That fractal suggested that after a (dotted) Channel Up, the index should make a correction below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but on September 11 instead of breaking below the 1D MA50, the index rebounded (as mentioned above) and diverged from the fractal.
This means that the Bullish Led (green Channel Up) may this time start earlier and the rally may break above the 2-year Channel Up and finally deliver a new long-term pattern, possibly more aggressive.
Seasonality however is a big factor for investors and as we can see, the last two Septembers (2023, 2022) have been bearish, extending corrections that started in August but eventually managed to price a bottom in October.
As a result, any remark by Chair Powell during the press conference that isn't well received by the market, can initiate a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA200, ranging from -5.07% to -6.90%.
In our opinion, if that takes place, it will be a tremendous buy opportunity until at least the end of the year. If however Powell delivers what the market is expecting (and more), we expect the pattern to continue its divergence from the 2023 fractal and enter the more aggressive bullish pattern earlier. If the more aggressive pattern prevails, a 46000 target is very probable by the end of the year.
Notice that this divergence is also evident when comparing the 1D RSI sequences of the two fractals.
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The U.S. Markets are likely to have one last push before....The U.S. markets have been inflated to the point of near exhaustion, propped up by nothing more than a money printer that goes brrr... brrrr... brrrrrrrrrrr. However, this seemingly never-ending run is coming to an end.
Trump will most likely be elected president again. His first term (45) and his second term (47) will likely mark the greatest market crash of all time—the end of the everything bubble! 4 + 5 = 9; 4 + 7 = 11; 9 + 11 = 20. They will likely prop the market up until his administration takes power, then...
Shorting these markets will be the opportunity of a lifetime!
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
DOW JONES: Is it forming a BLOW OFF TOP??Dow Jones isn't just having a strong bullish momentum on the 1D timeframe but also on its 1W technical outlook where it maintains a steady bullish overall indicator score (RSI = 64.010, MACD = 036.840, ADX = 29.553). However there are growing concerns coming from the 1W chart as the 1W RSI is posting a Bearish Divergence, trading on a Channel Down while the actual price is on a Channel Up.
This is alarming because last time this showed up was in late 2021 and as we all know led to the bear market of 2022. However the Bearish Divergence prior to that (mid 2017) was false and Dow continued to rise instead for another 4 months before a correction to its 1W MA50. And that is the level that plays the most important role here, the 1W MA50. As long as it continues to support, we will have a bullish trend.
Actually, Dow seems to be attempting a breakout over the Channel Up this month, unlike December 2021. Failure to break though can result into a blow off top.
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Combined US Indexes - Bullish Flip?Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support.
Current flip to Bullish
Confirms with breakout of trendline (after Gap closure)
Watch these week's price action...
Dow Jones in correction rangeConsidering the price gap that has been created, which has not been filled from any side, as well as touching the ceiling of the upward movement, we expect the price to be corrected until the price gap is filled. According to the chart, short trades can be entered in two ranges
NDQ (US 100 Index) 1W analysis - Sep 12 2024Weekly chart of US 100 index is suggesting that the possibility of a crash in US stock market is rather high!
In fact the index is already in the heavy resistance zone of 19,000 - 20,400 and bearish divergence can be seen (both mid-term and long-term)
While the index is inside the resistance zone, breaking below the blue trendline is the confirmation for the huge drop and will lead to a huge sell pressure in the market.
The reason for this possible crash is probably weak data related to the labor market. Having a Buy position in US stock market is indeed risky these days as the index can even touch Oct 22 low and probably even lower levels if the drop is confirmed!! #NDQ #US100
DOW JONES: Aiming at 42,300 if the 1D MA50 keeps supporting.Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.462, MACD = 83.230, ADX = 39.913) as it has recovered exactly 50% of last week's pullback. The rebound started exactly on the 1D MA50, empowering the bullish sentiment inside the Channel Up, despite the fact that the price is trading over its median.
If the 1D MA50 keeps supporting, the 1D MACD is near a Bull Cross, which inside the Channel Up, is the trigger signal for more upside. This is a strong bullish case for us and within October we are expecting a new HH (TP = 42,300).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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XAU/USD : First Long, Then SHORT ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around $2496. If the price manages to hold above $2485, I expect it to rise first to the $2507 to $2518 range to fill the existing liquidity gap. After that, we can anticipate further declines in gold, with potential targets at $2484, $2472, and $2460.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to 38.2%-50% Fibo lvl`s 40137.Dear colleagues, after I realized that the price is in the upward impulse of wave “1” I realized that we should look for the beginning of the correction of wave “2”.
At the moment I expect the price to rise a little more to the resistance area of 41379 and then start a corrective movement to the area of 38.2%-50% Fibonacci levels (40137).
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Dow Jones Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 40750 zone, US30 was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 40750 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Traders Turning to Traditional Stocks and Dow Jones In July, most markets reached their peak, followed by a three-day global meltdown after the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike. Since then, all have recovered, but only the Dow Jones has surpassed its July high, while the others have not.
AI and tech stocks, particularly those in the Nasdaq, have lost their shine compared to traditional stocks like those in the Dow Jones.
We will explore which sectors investors are gravitating towards this time and why they favor the Dow Jones over the Nasdaq this season.
Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
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