Dowjones
US30So wrong or just too early.
Mid way we were moving following our analysis and the bulls just gained energy but that's okay. I did have quite a bad week so it would have affected my thoughts.
Currently 39450, were we anticipated the major drop is where we can adjust and rework our analysis from 1W down to 15min.
Weekly we have a strong bearish candle, which looks to be engulfing the previous week. It's cause of sign because it is happening at the top of the trend.
Daily we had an evening star, that further adds to our analysis and believe of the bears.
4H we had a double top, indicating the fall (39900 being the ceiling). If we get a neckline (39300) break then we off to the races.
1H we'll wait for 39260.
Trade Idea: Wait
Weekly Momentum On Major Pairs (Week 13/2024)
First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up.
XXX/USD: Neutral
Gold & Silver: Very Bullish
XXX/JPY: Neutral
Stock Indexes: Neutral
BitCoin/ETH: Very Bullish
Week 13 (31/03/2024)
US30 Bulls still holding strong (buys potentially from 39400.0)US30 remains in a strong bullish stance, and I'm still on the lookout for long opportunities. Last week, we witnessed a retracement in price to fill the previous imbalance, although some imbalances remain. This was adequate for initiating a new rally, as we're currently observing.
Now, I anticipate two possibilities: either price will break past the newly formed high, or it will retrace to address a significant demand level. In the event of a retracement to the demand level, I'll wait for lower timeframe confirmation before preparing long setups, targeting either new highs or significant liquidity points.
Confluences for US30 Buys are as follows:
- Price broke structure to the upside once again.
- Lower and higher time frame remains extremely bullish.
- Clean nearby demand zone on the 18hr or 21hr.
- New high is close by which is a strong level of liquidity tat is lying there.
- After this imminent retracement we can expect a new rally.
P.S. I strongly favor the bullish trend due to several recent breaks of new highs. Additionally, there are several demand zones that have yet to be mitigated. However, given the impulsive nature of price movements, I wouldn't be surprised if we witness further upward momentum, potentially breaking the high once again.
Have a great trading week guys!
Bitcoin - BTCUSD 4hrUPDATE:
Head and shoulder patterns continue. BTC is following a 1hr trend (blue lines). Pay attention to the lower high BTC is about to create. The USD markets are on a holiday break, if the USD news is bullish for GoodFriday then BTC will continue to drop.
***Fed Powell is speaking as well.
This could be the start of the biggest pullback in BTC History.
I am looking for BTCUSD to continue falling as it respects the lower highs.
Tp1: 61500
Tp2: 51500
Tp3: 47500
Tp4: 37749
🔥 XAU/USD - First LONG , Then SHORT (READ THE CAPTION)With the new review of gold in the 1-hour time frame, we see that the price rose to $2200 last day and then it was corrected! Now, in my opinion, gold can be associated with a growth up to the range of $2203 to $2210 and after that we can have a SELL position with the right trigger! As I said before, the first supply zone is between $2203 and $2210, and the next is the Rejection Block zone between $2212 and $2222!
Please tell me in the comment section that do you think what price gold will close at by the end of the week!?
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
DOW JONES At the edge of the cliff.Dow Jones (DJI) is approaching the top of the 1.5 year Channel Up, while at the same time holding the Inner Higher Highs trend-line. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) Support is getting increasingly weak as it is now on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, the closest it has been to the price action since the the November 2023 break-out.
Technically this is as overbought as it can get on the 1D time-frame and the 1D CCI gives a clear sell signal that is consistent with the late July and January 2023 peaks. On this scale, the time to buy is far from the current prices, quite the contrary, the RR favors selling on the short-term.
We are expecting 38050 (Support 1) to be tested on the 0.618 Channel Fib level. Even though the previous two corrections made -9.25% dips, the time to buy would be when the 1D CCI posts a Higher Low on oversold territory. That was a solid buy signal in 2023. The ideal price level for that would be as close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as possible, although it is not necessary.
Profit by selling short-term and buying the dip long-term.
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Looking for US30 to rise back upWaiting for a internal liquidity sweep of today's low for a possible buying opportunity up to march 21st high. There is liquidity on lower time frames more visible (30min,15min & 5min). I'm personally using 1Hr and 5 min combination for this entry. When there is confirmation on the 5 min chart I'll enter around 39345- 39336 area located in the discount. That huge dump was distribution, we've consolidated in a range monday through tuesday, then made a lower low and got a market structure shift to the upside showing reversal signs. Good luck!
Dow Jones Index (US30): Classic Bullish Pattern
As we discussed on a live stream today,
US30 index tested a recently broken horizontal resistance
that turned into a solid support.
The market formed a double bottom formation and successfully violated its neckline.
We can anticipate a bullish continuation at least to 39744 now.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
🔥 XAU/USD - Another LONG ? (READ THE CAPTION)With the new review of the gold chart in the 1-hour and weekly time frame, we can see that after the price was able to grow up to $2180 and hit the first two targets, it was accompanied by a price correction and corrected to the demand level of $2156 to $2159 and then It was accompanied by demand again and we saw its growth up to $2178! The total efficiency of this analysis has been more than 300 pips and I hope you have made the most of it! If the price stabilizes above $2165, we can expect more growth from gold, whose possible targets are $2173, $2180, $2183, and $2203 (SHORT TERM SCENARIO) , respectively! If the price moves and penetrates below $2146 in the weekly time frame, we can expect price correction in the mid term!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
US30We are on track and going very nicely to what we wanted before we go with the market. Keep holding that patience and stop those fingers from executing any trades.
As we move lower, think of possible moves which could invalidate the forecast:
Bull momentum taking over
New rejection level
Fake outs to the downside
Major news announcements
Wrong psychology
Wait, hold, plan, wait some more
🔥 NASDAQ - Ready for more FALL ? (READ THE CAPTION)By checking the Nasdaq chart, we see that the price after collecting liquidity above the level of 18420 has faced selling pressure and is currently trading in the range of 18250! If the price stabilizes below 18360,there will be a greater and heavier fall from the index! Its targets are 18200, 18090 and 17950 respectively!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
US30 Waves AnalysisHello Traders, Base on technical and wave analysis we see this scenario for #US30 #DowJones for next move. let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
DJ: US30 Assessing Reversal Potential Amidst Historical HighThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ - US30) faced downward pressure after reaching historical highs around 39910 on Friday. As US markets conclude the trading week, the DJIA's downward testing suggests a potential reversal and retracement before a possible bullish move.
On Friday, most major sectors of the US equity market experienced losses, with Real Estate down approximately 1.25% and the Financial Sector falling 1.21%. However, the Communications Services Sector showed resilience, closing up around 0.85% as telecoms rebounded from recent selling pressure.
Traders are eyeing next Thursday's release of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which are expected to hold steady at 3.2% growth for Q4. Additionally, attention will be on the latest Federal Reserve's (Fed) inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, scheduled for release next Friday. Market forecasts predict a slight decrease in the MoM Core PCE for February, from 0.4% to 0.3%.
With anticipation of these economic indicators, a reversal is anticipated, prompting consideration for a Sell limit on DJ.
USStraight forward, this is bullish and has no reason to stop being bullish. HH and HL are the indications of the strength of this trend. Within the channel is where the action is. Current price we bearish.
For now stay away from the trade idea but rather on the movement of price. We melting downwards, which resembles the supply but not the demand because it could still be up. For now hold and wait for consolidation before wanting to enter sells.
LET CONSOLIDATION BE MIMUMUM 5-10 CANDLES, this is a better confluence as this will give us a price squeeze and better direction predictions.
Trade Idea : Buy Limit
SL - 38680
Entry - 38835
TP - 40010
US 30 FALLThe analysis suggests a potential selling opportunity for US 30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) on the daily and 4-hour timeframes.
On the daily timeframe, a selling entry zone is identified between 39,800 to 39,950 points. This range represents a level where significant selling interest has historically emerged, potentially acting as a resistance zone for the index. Traders often look for such areas to initiate short positions, anticipating a downward movement in price from these levels.
Additionally, on the 4-hour timeframe, a fresh selling zone is noted between 39,590 to 39,650 points. This zone represents a recent area where selling pressure has been observed, indicating potential renewed bearish momentum for US 30.
The trading strategy includes setting a target of 130 pips, representing the expected downside movement in US 30 from the identified selling zones. This target suggests the anticipated decrease in price from the entry zones to the desired profit level.
Furthermore, two target prices are set to manage the trade effectively. Setting multiple targets allows traders to lock in profits at different levels and adjust their positions accordingly as the trade progresses.
In summary, the analysis indicates a potential selling opportunity in US 30, with selling entry zones identified on both the daily and 4-hour timeframes. Traders may consider entering short positions with the expectation of a 130-pip downside movement, aiming to capitalize on the potential price decline from the identified selling zones.
DOW JONES: Short term decline started.Dow Jones is still on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.232, MACD = 275.500, ADX = 55.346) but today's red 1D candle, being the strongest since February 13th, is a first hint that a short term correction is starting. The price has almost made a HH at the top of the 18 month Channel Up, so the probabilities of a technical pullback are getting stronger. Both prior HH touched the 1D MA200 and the middle of the Channel Up. As a result a -6.90% decline (like December 20th 2022) seems a modest target (TP = 37,300) as it will hit the middle of the Channel Up, even approach the S1 level.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Average Price to BuyThe current trading price is above 01/08/21 to current average after news of investors turned their attention to middle east crisis and "Chevron Hauls workers out of Iraq" the follow up on this story will give general consent of investors in the DJI stocks and so far the current price is above Average weighting for this segment, Stop loss for safe investing would be at average price (35233.26833)
The right shoulder of the Dow’s Inv H&S is its own inv h&S!!We are looking at the Dow jones on the daily here and can see 2 distinct inverse head and shoulder patterns have formed here. The larger one I have indicated with a lavender neckline and the smaller one with a green neckline. Price action is currently above both of them and overall this is looking very bullish, however we must remember that the daily timeframe is less effective in traditional stock markets than in the crypto market because the market is much more mature. That being said , I’m pretty certain the larger of the 2 inverse head and shoulder patterns would qualify as a weekly pattern or possibly even a monthly timeframe pattern so if we can get a few weekly and maybe a coupe monthly candle closes above the lavender neckline this will be a very bullish development for the Dow and greatly increase the likelihood of these patterns validating their breakout. For now though, it’s looking awfully ripe. *not financial advice*
Dow Jones getting closer to hitting first inv h&s targetAn update from a previous Dow Jones chart. I will post a link to the previous as well. We are getting very close to the smaller inverse head and shoulders breakout target here. Always a chance it corrects before continuing up to the second larger inv h&s target but then again always a chance it just keeps going to reach the 2nd target without a correction first(less probable) Best to consider both outcomes. *not financial advice*