🔥 XAU/USD - First LONG , Then SHORT (READ THE CAPTION)With the new review of gold in the 1-hour time frame, we see that the price rose to $2200 last day and then it was corrected! Now, in my opinion, gold can be associated with a growth up to the range of $2203 to $2210 and after that we can have a SELL position with the right trigger! As I said before, the first supply zone is between $2203 and $2210, and the next is the Rejection Block zone between $2212 and $2222!
Please tell me in the comment section that do you think what price gold will close at by the end of the week!?
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
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Dowjones
DOW JONES At the edge of the cliff.Dow Jones (DJI) is approaching the top of the 1.5 year Channel Up, while at the same time holding the Inner Higher Highs trend-line. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) Support is getting increasingly weak as it is now on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, the closest it has been to the price action since the the November 2023 break-out.
Technically this is as overbought as it can get on the 1D time-frame and the 1D CCI gives a clear sell signal that is consistent with the late July and January 2023 peaks. On this scale, the time to buy is far from the current prices, quite the contrary, the RR favors selling on the short-term.
We are expecting 38050 (Support 1) to be tested on the 0.618 Channel Fib level. Even though the previous two corrections made -9.25% dips, the time to buy would be when the 1D CCI posts a Higher Low on oversold territory. That was a solid buy signal in 2023. The ideal price level for that would be as close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as possible, although it is not necessary.
Profit by selling short-term and buying the dip long-term.
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Looking for US30 to rise back upWaiting for a internal liquidity sweep of today's low for a possible buying opportunity up to march 21st high. There is liquidity on lower time frames more visible (30min,15min & 5min). I'm personally using 1Hr and 5 min combination for this entry. When there is confirmation on the 5 min chart I'll enter around 39345- 39336 area located in the discount. That huge dump was distribution, we've consolidated in a range monday through tuesday, then made a lower low and got a market structure shift to the upside showing reversal signs. Good luck!
Dow Jones Index (US30): Classic Bullish Pattern
As we discussed on a live stream today,
US30 index tested a recently broken horizontal resistance
that turned into a solid support.
The market formed a double bottom formation and successfully violated its neckline.
We can anticipate a bullish continuation at least to 39744 now.
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🔥 XAU/USD - Another LONG ? (READ THE CAPTION)With the new review of the gold chart in the 1-hour and weekly time frame, we can see that after the price was able to grow up to $2180 and hit the first two targets, it was accompanied by a price correction and corrected to the demand level of $2156 to $2159 and then It was accompanied by demand again and we saw its growth up to $2178! The total efficiency of this analysis has been more than 300 pips and I hope you have made the most of it! If the price stabilizes above $2165, we can expect more growth from gold, whose possible targets are $2173, $2180, $2183, and $2203 (SHORT TERM SCENARIO) , respectively! If the price moves and penetrates below $2146 in the weekly time frame, we can expect price correction in the mid term!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
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US30We are on track and going very nicely to what we wanted before we go with the market. Keep holding that patience and stop those fingers from executing any trades.
As we move lower, think of possible moves which could invalidate the forecast:
Bull momentum taking over
New rejection level
Fake outs to the downside
Major news announcements
Wrong psychology
Wait, hold, plan, wait some more
🔥 NASDAQ - Ready for more FALL ? (READ THE CAPTION)By checking the Nasdaq chart, we see that the price after collecting liquidity above the level of 18420 has faced selling pressure and is currently trading in the range of 18250! If the price stabilizes below 18360,there will be a greater and heavier fall from the index! Its targets are 18200, 18090 and 17950 respectively!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
US30 Waves AnalysisHello Traders, Base on technical and wave analysis we see this scenario for #US30 #DowJones for next move. let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
DJ: US30 Assessing Reversal Potential Amidst Historical HighThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ - US30) faced downward pressure after reaching historical highs around 39910 on Friday. As US markets conclude the trading week, the DJIA's downward testing suggests a potential reversal and retracement before a possible bullish move.
On Friday, most major sectors of the US equity market experienced losses, with Real Estate down approximately 1.25% and the Financial Sector falling 1.21%. However, the Communications Services Sector showed resilience, closing up around 0.85% as telecoms rebounded from recent selling pressure.
Traders are eyeing next Thursday's release of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which are expected to hold steady at 3.2% growth for Q4. Additionally, attention will be on the latest Federal Reserve's (Fed) inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, scheduled for release next Friday. Market forecasts predict a slight decrease in the MoM Core PCE for February, from 0.4% to 0.3%.
With anticipation of these economic indicators, a reversal is anticipated, prompting consideration for a Sell limit on DJ.
USStraight forward, this is bullish and has no reason to stop being bullish. HH and HL are the indications of the strength of this trend. Within the channel is where the action is. Current price we bearish.
For now stay away from the trade idea but rather on the movement of price. We melting downwards, which resembles the supply but not the demand because it could still be up. For now hold and wait for consolidation before wanting to enter sells.
LET CONSOLIDATION BE MIMUMUM 5-10 CANDLES, this is a better confluence as this will give us a price squeeze and better direction predictions.
Trade Idea : Buy Limit
SL - 38680
Entry - 38835
TP - 40010
US 30 FALLThe analysis suggests a potential selling opportunity for US 30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) on the daily and 4-hour timeframes.
On the daily timeframe, a selling entry zone is identified between 39,800 to 39,950 points. This range represents a level where significant selling interest has historically emerged, potentially acting as a resistance zone for the index. Traders often look for such areas to initiate short positions, anticipating a downward movement in price from these levels.
Additionally, on the 4-hour timeframe, a fresh selling zone is noted between 39,590 to 39,650 points. This zone represents a recent area where selling pressure has been observed, indicating potential renewed bearish momentum for US 30.
The trading strategy includes setting a target of 130 pips, representing the expected downside movement in US 30 from the identified selling zones. This target suggests the anticipated decrease in price from the entry zones to the desired profit level.
Furthermore, two target prices are set to manage the trade effectively. Setting multiple targets allows traders to lock in profits at different levels and adjust their positions accordingly as the trade progresses.
In summary, the analysis indicates a potential selling opportunity in US 30, with selling entry zones identified on both the daily and 4-hour timeframes. Traders may consider entering short positions with the expectation of a 130-pip downside movement, aiming to capitalize on the potential price decline from the identified selling zones.
DOW JONES: Short term decline started.Dow Jones is still on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.232, MACD = 275.500, ADX = 55.346) but today's red 1D candle, being the strongest since February 13th, is a first hint that a short term correction is starting. The price has almost made a HH at the top of the 18 month Channel Up, so the probabilities of a technical pullback are getting stronger. Both prior HH touched the 1D MA200 and the middle of the Channel Up. As a result a -6.90% decline (like December 20th 2022) seems a modest target (TP = 37,300) as it will hit the middle of the Channel Up, even approach the S1 level.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Average Price to BuyThe current trading price is above 01/08/21 to current average after news of investors turned their attention to middle east crisis and "Chevron Hauls workers out of Iraq" the follow up on this story will give general consent of investors in the DJI stocks and so far the current price is above Average weighting for this segment, Stop loss for safe investing would be at average price (35233.26833)
The right shoulder of the Dow’s Inv H&S is its own inv h&S!!We are looking at the Dow jones on the daily here and can see 2 distinct inverse head and shoulder patterns have formed here. The larger one I have indicated with a lavender neckline and the smaller one with a green neckline. Price action is currently above both of them and overall this is looking very bullish, however we must remember that the daily timeframe is less effective in traditional stock markets than in the crypto market because the market is much more mature. That being said , I’m pretty certain the larger of the 2 inverse head and shoulder patterns would qualify as a weekly pattern or possibly even a monthly timeframe pattern so if we can get a few weekly and maybe a coupe monthly candle closes above the lavender neckline this will be a very bullish development for the Dow and greatly increase the likelihood of these patterns validating their breakout. For now though, it’s looking awfully ripe. *not financial advice*
Dow Jones getting closer to hitting first inv h&s targetAn update from a previous Dow Jones chart. I will post a link to the previous as well. We are getting very close to the smaller inverse head and shoulders breakout target here. Always a chance it corrects before continuing up to the second larger inv h&s target but then again always a chance it just keeps going to reach the 2nd target without a correction first(less probable) Best to consider both outcomes. *not financial advice*
An update to my Dow Jones chart I posted July 18th 2023The original chart was on a much larger time frame, but we are getting so close to the second measured move target now I figured I’d make this update on the daily chart. We are now about 3 pips away from hitting the 2nd bigger invh&s pattern’s full measured move breakout target. Always amazes me how these things come to fruition, and in this case I was able to predict with macro chart patterns it would reach these heights 7 months before it happens. That’s not to say it wasnt happening this whole time because it essentially was, just had to not fall for the initial break above the necklines and also the follow up break back below the neckline….classic head fakes I expect to see this higher target hit in February, where the market will go from there I’m really not sure..this could indeed be a fulcrum point but it could also behave like solana just recently did and just blast well above the target or after reaching the target continue to pump. Either way I expect this will at least reach within a half pi of the target but think probability is high of it hitting the target 100% still. *not financial advice* I will post a link to the original chart from last July down below. Thanks for reading, following, and rocket boosting my charts. Much respect.
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to target is the area of 39297.Dear colleagues, despite the fact that the price is in a downward movement, I believe that the five-wave movement has not been completed. I expect that the price will not update the minimum of wave 4 38463, but will approach it, and then the upward movement in wave 5 will begin. The nearest target is the area of 39297.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
DOW JONES: Make or break at the top of the Triangle.Dow Jones rebounded on the 4H MA200 and the HL trendline of the Triangle pattern and turned bullish again on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 61.324, MACD = 179.870, ADX = 45.459). As the 4H MACD is on a Bullish Cross, we have a clear sequence to follow, bullish if it closes over the LH trendline (TP = 39,450) and bearish if it doesn't (TP = 38,700). The targets are the 1.5 Fibonacci extension and the HL trendline respectively. From a fractal point of view, the MACD looks much like the January 19th 2024 bullish breakout.
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What is Dow Theory?The Dow Theory is a financial concept based on a set of ideas from Charles H. Dow‘s writings. Fundamentally, it states that a notable change between bull and bear trend in a stock market will occur when index confirm it.
The trend that is recognized is considered valid when there is strong evidence supporting it. The theory states that if two indicators move in the same way, the primary trend that is identified is genuine.
However, if the two indicators don’t align, then there is no clear trend. This approach mainly focuses on changes in prices and trading volumes. It uses visual representations and compares different indicators to identify and understand trends.
Dow Theory:
The Dow Theory originated from the analysis of market price movements and speculative viewpoints proposed by Charles H. Dow. It served as a fundamental building block for technical analysis, especially in a time when modern software-based technical analysis tools did not exist.
Robert Rhea’s book “The Dow Theory” thoroughly explores the evolution and significance of the theory in speculative endeavours, closely examining the Wall Street Journal editorials written by Charles H. Dow and William Peter Hamilton in the 19th century.
This theory represents one of the earliest efforts to comprehend the market by considering fundamental factors that provide insights into future trends.
The main version of the theory primarily focuses on comparing the closing prices of two averages: the Dow Jones Rail (or Transportation) (DJT) and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI). The premise was that if one average surpassed a specific level, the other average would eventually follow suit. Dow used an analogy to illustrate this concept, likening the market to the ocean.
He explained that just as waves rise to a certain point on one side of the beach, waves on another part of the beach will eventually reach that same point. Similarly, in the market, different sectors are interconnected, and when one sector shows a particular trend, others tend to follow suit as they are part of a larger whole.
The Paradigms of Dow Theory:
To comprehend the theory, it is essential to grasp the various rules formulated by Dow. These principles, often referred to as the tenets of Dow theory, serve as guiding paradigms
Three major market trends:
The tenets of Dow Theory classify trends based on their duration into primary, secondary, and minor trends. Primary trends can be either upward (uptrend) or downward (downtrend) and can last for months to years.
Secondary trends move in the opposite direction to the primary trend and typically last for weeks or a few months. Minor trends, on the other hand, are considered insignificant variations that occur over a shorter time span, ranging from a few hours to weeks, and are considered less significant than the primary and secondary trends.
Primary trends have three distinct phases:
Bear markets can be divided into three distinct phases: distribution, public participation, and panic.
In the distribution phase, there is a gradual selling off of assets by investors.
The public participation phase occurs when more individual investors start selling their holdings, leading to a broader decline in the market.
The panic phase is characterized by widespread fear and selling pressure, often resulting in a sharp and rapid decline in prices.
On the other hand, bull markets experience three phases: accumulation, public participation, and excess.
During the accumulation phase, astute investors start buying assets at lower prices, anticipating an upward trend.
The public participation phase occurs as more investors join the market and buy assets, contributing to the market’s upward momentum.
The excess phase represents a period of exuberance and speculative buying, often marked by overvaluation and unsustainable price increases.
Stock market discount everything:
Market indexes are highly responsive to various types of information. They can reflect the overall condition of an entity or the economy as a whole.
For example, any significant economic events or problems in company management can impact stock prices and cause movements in the indexes, either upward or downward.
Trend confirms with volume:
When there is an uptrend, trading volume rises and decreases while a downtrend starts
Index confirm each other:
When multiple indices move in a consistent manner, following the same pattern, it indicates the presence of a trend.
This alignment among indices provides a strong signal of market direction. However, when two indices move in opposite directions, it becomes challenging to determine a clear trend. In such cases, conflicting signals make it difficult to deduce a definitive market trend.
Trends continue until solid factors imply the reversal:
Traders should be careful of trend reversals, as they can often be mistaken for secondary trends. To avoid this confusion, Dow advises investors to exercise caution and verify trends with multiple sources before considering it a genuine reversal.
How Does Dow Theory Work in Technical Analysis?
The Dow Theory played a crucial role in the development of technical analysis in the stock market and served as its foundational principle. Which, approach to analysis highlights the importance of closely observing market data to identify trends, reversals, and optimal entry and exit points for maximizing profits.
As the market is considered an indicator of future performance, the application of technical analysis based on the Dow Theory helps investors make profitable trading decisions by identifying established long-term, mid-term, or short-term trends. By using this approach, investors can gain insights into market dynamics and make informed decisions to enhance their trading outcomes.
In conclusion:
The Dow Theory has significantly influenced technical analysis in the stock market, serving as a cornerstone for its development and advancement. By analysing the careful examination of market data, this theory helps traders to identify trends, spot reversals, and determine optimal buy and sell points for maximizing profits.
The market itself is considered a reliable indicator of future performance, and technical analysis aligned with the Dow Theory assists investors in making profitable trading decisions by detecting established long-term, mid-term, or short-term trends. By using this analytical framework, investors can gain valuable insights into market behaviour and make well-informed choices to improve their trading outcomes. The Dow Theory’s enduring impact continues to guide traders in their pursuit of success in the dynamic world of stock market investing.
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