DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 08/01/2024We made a new ATH in the DOW JONES so the bullish sequence in the higher time frame continues. We believe we are now working on a wave ((3)). Alternatively, the wave ((1)) might still be ongoing as a leading diagonal. In the lower time frame, we are observing a potential WXY corrective structure.
Dowjones
US30This big boys came to play with NFP but was equally sorted out without regret.
4H
-Serious Doji
- Hanging man as the closing candle
* Evening Star
1H
* 3 touches on either side of the channel
* Bearish channel confirmation
* Rection and close under 37500
- 37400 can be the next resting place
- 37300 is the next significant level should it fall
15Min
- Price in a squeeze, we should be expecting a breakout next (one that will be very impulsive)
- 37327 area around where double/triple bottom happened
- 37520 break = Shoot up (bullish momentum)
S&P500: Moving to the DowOverview
I decided it was time to start taking control of my own retirement account. For years my account has been pulling in mediocre gains and the only reason I've put up with it for so long is because: 1) it took me years to hone my trading skills and 2) my employer matches my contributions.
Well, after reviewing my available fund allocations and performing a quick technical analysis of the respective funds, I decided to pull completely out of the S&P500 ( SP:SPX ) and placed them into the Dow Jones ( DJ:DJI ).
Technical Analysis
SP:SPX
A double top has appeared on the 1W chart. Combined with dwindling volume on top of increasing value, I think it's ready to fall. Utilizing Fibonacci retracements I believe a good time to re-enter the S&P 500 will be in the range of $2200-$3200 USD.
DJ:DJI
While it is still slightly early to confirm, it appears that the Dow Jones has escaped the double-top and in my opinion looks coiled up and ready to spring. Utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels -- supported by increasing volume with rising value -- $56.8K appears to be a practical price target.
DOW JONES - Incoming Global Crash - Larger Degree Wave 4...In this video, I elaborate on my anticipation of a significant downturn in global markets and discuss how it might usher in a new era in the financial system. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), central banks have consistently deferred addressing underlying issues, but it seems we have reached the end of that road. The only viable path forward appears to be allowing the market to undergo a proper correction, facilitating the potential for renewed growth in the future. Exploring the emerging landscape, it will be intriguing to observe the shape of the new financial system, especially with the emergence of technologies that could form its foundation. My comprehension of market trends and waves has played a crucial role in leading me to this conclusion after years of dedicated research.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 05/01/2024We made a new ATH in the DOW JONES so the bullish sequence in the higher time frame continues. We believe we are now working on a wave ((3)). Alternatively, the wave ((1)) might still be ongoing as a leading diagonal. In the lower time frame, we are observing an ending impulse. The high could hold or alternatively, we might see a fifth wave to end the impulsive structure.
DJI Dow Jones Fell 8.60% After the Last U.S. Credit DowngradeOn Tuesday, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US debt rating from the highest AAA rating to AA+, citing concerns over "a steady deterioration in standards of governance."
This downgrade occurred in the wake of last-minute negotiations among lawmakers to secure a debt ceiling deal earlier this year, which posed a risk of the nation's first default.
Following a similar credit downgrade in the past, the DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced an 8.60% decline over a period of 3 months. The downgrade by S&P, one of the three major credit rating firms, took place on Aug. 5, 2011, after another significant debt ceiling battle.
As of today, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, reaching its highest level since November 2022.
If we are to fell -8.60%, the Price Target for DJI is $32500.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Bull market correction pattern? End of Impulse PatternHello there,
I hope you're having a great start to the new year. I wish you all the best in your trading ventures and a happy new year with your loved ones.
I'm a fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find interesting and useful for market analysis. I've developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market.
Although I'm going to share my analysis with you, please note that I won't be providing a buy or sell signal. My goal is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To give you confidence in my analysis, I'll always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you the best.
I'm waiting to hear from you. Finally, I'd like to remind you that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely,
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 04/01/2024 (+ HTF)We made a new ATH in the DOW JONES so the bullish sequence in the higher time frame continues. We believe we are now working on a wave ((3)). Alternatively, the wave ((1)) might still be ongoing as a leading diagonal. In the lower time frame, we are observing an ending impulse.
TARGET REACHED Dow Jones at 37,242 - Still bullishReverse Cup and Handle formed on Dow Jones.
The price broke up and since then has been rocketing to its first target at 37,242.
Now that it is the new year generally we can expect the January Effect to kick in with enhanced optimism and positive buying.
I don't like the USD looking to strengthen though, that might change the course.
RIght now I don't have a setup or pattern line up. SO we will just go with the momentum and trend.
Let's see if we can hit 40,000.
US30 Intra-Week Analysis Jan 2nd, 2023Us30 has been on a steady uptrend over the holidays which typically host a lot irregular movement entering a new year and business quarter. With that being said we've been creating new All-Time-Highs for the past 2 week, representing the optimism still in the market with hopes for continued rate cuts. We could likely see buyers begin taking profits at these new price points causing volatily to slow and potential signs of a slight pull back leading us to look for some sells. Otherswise we'll continue our bullish bias if price action continues to show signs of more bullish momentum.
DOW JONES: Under the 4H MA50 for the first time in 2 months.Dow Jones has turned neutral on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 55.920, MACD = 42.900, ADX = 19.367) as today it crossed under the 4H MA50 for the first time since November 1st. Even though the price remains inside the two month Channel Up, this 4H MA50 crossing constitutes the first validated sell signal coming off the big Bearish Divergence on the 1D RSI which is trading inside a Channel Down.
Even though the S1 level is the first level of Support, we expect the pullback to correct a sizeable portion of that rally and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 36,000) around the S2 level with a relative tolerance range up to the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
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US30I've been excited about this, when I saw it I wanted to take out my laptop and post immediately🤣🤣🤣
We had impulsive moves down, melting out all the positions and stops that were set.
I respect that we met part of our analysis, the other half was wrong.
Now we look for buys or support levels and ride this wave.
NFP week is also one to be careful of as it is a sh*t show.
Dow Jones Gap Fill TradeHow many gaps get filled?
Gaps in the chart fill 80% of the time .
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We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature.
and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations.
Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing.
This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
US30Here is an alternative view.
If you understand the different phases of market movements. I should not have to explain this.
I just have to make you aware that this actually is a possibility and one that has a great RR (about 6). Which follows my trading plan and follows my triggers.
* 3 touches at the top of the channel
* 3 touches at the bottom of the channel
* Break of the main trend that was following the bullish momentum
* Currently in Phase of retest and rejection before it falls
* The bearish candlesticks had more power going down than the bullish ones moving up
I've got 5 confluences
This is now on my considerations
US30We need to be decisive here.
US30 has no exact direction from my eye from 4H going down
Yet it is still in a bullish trend from overall momentum, which is 1 out of 3 indications we have that we should be looking for buys.
Moving deeper:
The opening of the market and closing of the opening candlestick will help direct us to look out for specific moves by the market.
Watch for 37640:
- if it breaks straight through here, wait till it gets to 37600 before the next move
- if it bounces/retests here we can assume the continuation of the bigger bullish trend and break of the current trend
DOW JONES Key trade focused on the MA50 (4h).Dow Jones has been trading inside a Channel Up since the October 27th Low.
The MA50 (4h) has been the main support throughout this time, having stayed unbroken since November 1st.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price as long as the MA50 (4h) holds.
2. If the MA50 (4h) breaks, sell.
Targets:
1. 38550 (+4.06% rise, the lowest throughout the Channel Up).
2. 36400 (the MA200 4h).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) has been trading under a Falling Resistance, which indicates a potential Bearish Divergence. It favors a break under the Channel Up.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
US30 LongsUS30 is breaking All-Time-Highs.
Trend is still Bullish.
Market opened with bullish momentum; waiting for retracement to enter long positions.
Aggressively enter new long positions once original position is in profit and has found support.
Avoid entering new positions if original position is negative.
Stop loss placed under bullish breakout.
SPX LongsMarket has been breaking All-Time-Highs.
Overall Market Trend is still bullish.
Same sized retracements (indicated by green trend-lines) have printed, along with a subsequent bullish breakout, confirm continuation of uptrend.
Invalidation at 4733.3 (stop loss placed)
No profit target (new highs cannot be accurately determined at this time).
Aggressively enter new positions once original position is in profit and has found support.
Avoid entering new positions if original position goes negative.
Look for similarities in US30, NAS100, FTSE, DAX & NIKKEI.
DOW JONES Huge Bearish Divergence on 4HDow Jones (DJI) is trading within a very aggressive Channel Up since the October 27 bottom that has seen it rise almost by +17%, making new a All Time High (ATH) in the process. In the meantime it is about to hit the Higher Highs trend-line that has been acting as a Resistance, rejecting similar Channel Up patterns since April 14.
What is more alarming than this Resistance, is the Channel Down that has emerged on the 4H RSI. The other two similar Channel Down patterns that emerged after the RSI got overbought, did so right before the index peaked on the Higher Highs trend-line, starting two corrective Bearish Megaphone patterns. Those structures reached at least the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the previous Higher Low, and the 0.618 Fibonacci level from the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up.
Based on this occurrence, we expect yet another Higher Highs rejection that will test at least the 0.618 Fib at 36750, which is our current sell target. Potentially, if the selling pressure is pilled up and transitions to the 1D time-frame, it can reach as low as the 0.5 Fibonacci from the October bottom at 35150.
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