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DOW JONES Does this rally still surprise you?Two months ago (October 11) we made a bold statement calling for "the start of a new Bull rally under our nose" on Dow Jones (DJI) (see chart below): Many traders/ investors/ market participants have been surprised by the current November - December rally but in reality they shouldn't as the index is methodically repeating the 2016 - 2017 Rising Wedge pattern, as we've shown on that analysis. We are now at the level where the price is breaking above that pattern (blue circle), which comes after the 1W RSI makes a fake-out break breach below the Higher Lows and then rebounds. On the current analysis we expand the chart more, in order to show you that the very same Rising Wedge also emerged from May 2011 to December 2012. We are therefore on a +10 year cyclical pattern which the all three Wedges not only displaying identical break-outs/ fake-outs but also similar duration. The 2011/12 pattern peaked on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, the 2015/16 a little higher on the 3.0 Fib ext. We can assume that this progression could give a new top on a higher Fib, but if we take the worst case scenario of the model (2.618 Fib), we can expect a High around 42900. Check out also how the Sine Waves grasp fairly accurately the cyclical movement on those bottoms and peaks during these past +10 years. Another important observation is that after the index broke above the Rising Wedge in 2016, it didn't offer any significant dips to buy. Rare buy entry opportunities existed only on the middle trend-line (orange) of the Bollinger Bands. The 2013 break-out gave significantly more dips buy opportunities, 7 in total all marginally below the Bollinger middle, before the 2.618 Fibonacci peak. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
US30: Thoughts and Analysis Pre-FOMCToday's focus: US30 Pattern – N/A Support – 36,280 Resistance – 36,900 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at US30 on the daily chart. Today's video asks if US30 will continue to track higher despite being well off its moving average. This can be a warning if you believe in mean revision. The other point we are looking at in today's report is whether we will see a stall at resistance and previous highs if the price continues to increase. A key driver could be tomorrow's FOMC; traders will be looking to see if rates remain on hold as expected and what we will hear from the FED in the statement and projections. Ideas are that we could see an end to aggressive rate policy, and what could be coming next? If it's dovish, we will look for stocks to rally; if it's hawkish, we will look for stocks to decline. Expectations are already in for May rate cuts to be priced in. Will we hear anything from the Fed to substantiate this? The FOMC will be held at 6:00 am AEDT, and the FOMC press conference will be held at 6:30 am Thursday. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by Eightcap
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 12/12/2023We made a new high in the DOW JONES and this has some implications. The wave ((2)) low could be in after a triple three correction or WXYXZ structure. This would mean that we are now working on an impulse. The upward structure is strong and we start to see 5 waves. It becomes less likely that the upward move is corrective. In case the upward move is corrective, it could be that we are still working on the wave ((2)) but as an expanded flat.
OANDA:US30USD
by AndyCuckoo
A corrective pattern to the side of the big waveHello! I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market. While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision. To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand. I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best. I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you. Sincerely,
OANDA:US30USDLong
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
DOW JONES Channel Up still holding, aiming at All Time Highs.Dow Jones (DJI) maintains its bullish trade within the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 27 Low. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting since November 01 and as long as it continues to do so, the index is more likely to test the 36975 All Time High (Jan 05 2022). Especially since it is currently on a 4H MACD Bullish Cross. The previous two MACD Bullish Crosses have delivered rises of around +2.70% to the top of the Channel Up. Another +2.70% rise will send the price above 37000 and that is our target. If however the index closes below the 4H MA50, we will take the long's loss and reverse to a short immediately, targeting the bottom of the Channel Up. If the price closes below it, we will re-sell and target Support 1 at 35300, where potentially contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) can be made for the first time since November 02. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
US30 DOW JONES Technical Analysis And Trade Idea The US30 has exhibited a strong upward movement, recently reaching a significant resistance level on both the daily and weekly charts. This video provides a detailed analysis of this trend, meticulously examining price movements and identifying possible trading opportunities by thoroughly assessing multiple timeframes, ranging from weekly to as short as 15 minutes. Anticipate an in-depth review covering price variations, market trends, trend evaluations, and crucial technical analysis components. It's crucial to emphasize that the insights shared here are purely educational and should not be interpreted as financial advice.
BLACKBULL:US30
by fxtraderanthony
A clear risk on event is taking placeI multiplied the less risky Dow and Spy while dividing it with a multiple of bio, the Russel and Ark. This shows a clear shooting star candle in development this month which should signal much greater future gains in higher risk stocks and an end to this pullback in the market. You can see that we had nice rallies the last two times that this has happened on this chart at March 2020 and Feb 2016. I also noticed some more supporting evidence that this is near the bottom from the dark orange wedge breakout. If you measure the bottom to the peak in 2015-16 you can get an ideal exit target for the wedge breakout. Typically, you would measure from the breakout point, which it hasn't reached at this time, but if you measure from the bottom, you can see that the target has interestingly been reached to an almost exact amount. We also have the yellow resistance and the peak at March 2020 as a pivot point for all of these lines. Not too critical of a point, I just found that interesting haha. We also have institutions like black rock capitulating on growth twitter.com Many institutions were bearish on the market at the bottom of the covid dip. Finally we have a heavily overbought RSI and stoch on the monthly that also signals a top. Now the short term future outlook looks bullish on risk to me but I was thinking on potential long term possibilities from there: I believe that the yellow trajectory is more likely to happen over the blue one at this point to be honest. The blue option just requires too much competence in all global leaders to pull off so it seems unlikely to me and would be frankly miraculous. But it could still happen. The yellow one would basically give investors an opportunity to exit growth at more reasonable prices before the market continues its tank fest again. And while I have this pivot point at Jan 2024, it could happen much steeper and faster and pivot later this year. The yellow support line and the blue breakout line are most important to watch and see what option it'll be.
AMEX:SPY
by Lynxys
3
US Economy Has Entered A Potential Parabolic Phase End I think this is the most important macro trend to pay attention to in our economic history, I see many 1930 comparisons with 2023 saying we are at the "1931" collapse point but all economic data is pointing that we are most likely at the 1927-1928 stage and crazy enough when you compare the macro trends they make the same giant symmetrical wedge pattern. Now I'm going to share some archives of The New York Times from the same period to see where the mentality is. -------- November 17, 1927 "98 and interest, to yield about 5.75%" "temporary bonds" -------- October 30, 1928 "London Paper Predicts Crash on Change There It Speculation Goes On. LONDON, Oct. 29.—Speculative activity on the London Stock Exchange which sent prices of certain shares of doubtful value bounding upward, led the Daily Express to issue a solemn warning that a crash was certain to come unless the stock-gambling mania ceased." -------- November 3, 1929 "SEES WALL ST. REACTION. Stock Decline Will Aid Real Estate, Says Mandelbaum." -------- November 25, 1929 "ASKS STATE INQUIRY ON STOCK RECESSION Senator Hastings Wants the Governor to Name Committee of Business Leaders. MENTIONS SHORT SELLING But Finds Law Passed to Prevent It Failed of its Purpose and Was Repealed in 1857. Sees Short Selling a Factor Doubt As to Remedy." -------- Here we are again different stages, different cycles. But the main difference is our system bailed out our crashes since 2001 starting with interest rate cuts, we can clearly see the ups and downs are more violent when the FRED intervenes in the market. Do I suspect we get a giant crash in a few years? unlikely the FRED will not debase / change the rules but stopping a new parabolic run up is much harder to stop. They printed too much currency in 2020 now that inflation is halted via the fastest rate cycle in history where is all this capital going to flow into? correct equities and crypto. Best to remember the 1929 quote of the thought of "Banning Short Selling" my guess is IF this starts to turn into a parabolic secular cycle ending the FRED will start to control the markets and limit ability to sell / short sell or QE / YCC the market during the final stage. We will know if this is repeating if the wedge breaks out from now to early 2024.
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
DOW JONES Next stop 37000Dow Jones held the MA50 (4h) today after the initial NFP decline. This keeps the Channel Up intact on its upper layers, aiming for a new Higher High. Trading Plan: 1. Buy as long as the MA50 (4h) holds. 2. Sell if it breaks. Targets: 1. 37000 (Fibonacci 1.78 extension, like the Nov 15th Higher High). 2. 35700 (bottom of Channel Up). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) rebounded exactly on the level (Support 1) the Nov 9th did. The two legs are so far very symmetrical and promt to the extension of the Channel Up. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingBrokersView
🔥 XAUUSD : Targets Below $2000 ? (READ THE CAPTION)By examining gold in the weekly time frame, we see that the price is still below the range that we have determined based on the latest analysis, and until the price can be stabilized below $2072, our bearish view is still valid! The overall yield of this analysis has been more than 600 pips so far and we have to see if the price can penetrate below $2000 by the end of the week! (more details in the next analysis in the daily time frame) The Main Analysis : Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
17
DOW JONES Channel Up showing the way to All Time Highs.Dow Jones (DJI) hit the top of the Channel Up without a pull-back, which as we noted (see chart below), was a bullish break-out signal above Resistance 1 (35700) So you might be wondering, what about Santa's rally? Is it still feasible? It is technically, even if the index breaks lower next week. So far the short-term Channel Up on the 4H time-frame is holding, with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting right on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). As long as this holds, we remain bullish, targeting the 36960 All Time High (ATH). If it breaks, we will short-term target 35300 (first level of the dashed Support range) and then get on the reversal. Ideally we would like to see the RSI oversold on the 30.00 mark before entering a low risk buy. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
SDOW a Dow Shorting ETF Long from an Intermediate Term BottomSDOW has leveled off at a near-term bottom after a downtrend as confirmed by bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD while the price went sideways in consolidation. Volatility has contracted as have trading volumes. I see this as a buying opportunity with a stop loss of 20.5 below the low pivot in consolidation and the first target at 22 underneath a standard retracement with the final target at 25 in the area of the early November pivot high. A call option set at a strike of $22 expiring in 4-7 months is a supplement to the idea. I expect that interest rate fades or any lessening of geopolitical tensions may affect things throughout the trade and perhaps force trade management along the way. Overall, I have an expectation of 18% for the shares and about 100% for the call option.
AMEX:SDOWLong
by AwesomeAvani
DIA DOW ETF ShortDIA tracking the DOW widely in an ETF format on the two hour chart had a 7% rise in the past month which was widely followed in the investment media. I believe that it was a bull trap. In the past week price action has been sideways while the Stochastic RSI shows bearish divergence as does the zero lag MACD. Tradign Volumes has fallen off since burst of buying volume in mid and late November which pushed the price up 7%. In the past week, relative volatility has fallen off in general and now negative volatility exceeds positive. I believe that this is a top for the time being. A short position will be taken of 10 shares with a stop above the top at 363 The target is 342 just above the POC line, where high liquidity and volatility will return as long positions, would pile back in there and get a bounce or even a squeeze. This would be about a reward of 8 for a risk of 2, which seems reasonable. I will however take a 1/3 partial at 350 where the Fibonacci retracement comes into play. The SDOW ETF would be another way to play this idea.
AMEX:DIAShort
by AwesomeAvani
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 06/12/2023We made a new high in the DOW JONES and this has some implications. The wave ((2)) low could be in after a triple three correction or WXYXZ structure. This would mean that we are now working on an impulse. The upward structure is strong but so far we are only seeing three waves. Therefore, we cannot exclude the possibility that the upward move is corrective. As long as the upward move is corrective, it could be that we are still working on the wave ((2)) but as an expanded flat. If we start to turn down from the current area without making 5 waves up, we will favor the expanded flat scenario.
OANDA:US30USD
by AndyCuckoo
DOW JONES Sell signal at the top of the 1 year Channel UpDow Jones hit the top of the 1 year Channel Up, achieving an unprecedented High of overbought conditions on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 75.323, MACD = 557.860, ADX = 77.014). The first signs of exhaustion are given by the Stock RSI, which is pulling back. So far this can only be a short term sell signal so we are only aiming for the minimum retrace of the 0.236 Fibonacci level (TP = 35,550). Beyond that we need to see a closing under it in order to make an extension to the 1D MA50 (technically) but that would negate a seasonal Christmas rally. So for now take we keep only a short term horizon. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by InvestingScope
3
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 05/12/2023We made a new high in the DOW JONES and this has some implications. The wave ((2)) low could be in after a triple three correction or WXYXZ structure. This would mean that we are now working on an impulse. The upward structure is strong but so far we are only seeing three waves. Therefore, we cannot exclude the possibility that the upward move is corrective. As long as the upward move is corrective, it could be that we are still working on the wave ((2)) but as an expanded flat. If we start to turn down from the current area without making 5 waves up, we will favor the expanded flat scenario.
OANDA:US30USD
by AndyCuckoo