US30Here is an alternative view.
If you understand the different phases of market movements. I should not have to explain this.
I just have to make you aware that this actually is a possibility and one that has a great RR (about 6). Which follows my trading plan and follows my triggers.
* 3 touches at the top of the channel
* 3 touches at the bottom of the channel
* Break of the main trend that was following the bullish momentum
* Currently in Phase of retest and rejection before it falls
* The bearish candlesticks had more power going down than the bullish ones moving up
I've got 5 confluences
This is now on my considerations
Dowjones
US30We need to be decisive here.
US30 has no exact direction from my eye from 4H going down
Yet it is still in a bullish trend from overall momentum, which is 1 out of 3 indications we have that we should be looking for buys.
Moving deeper:
The opening of the market and closing of the opening candlestick will help direct us to look out for specific moves by the market.
Watch for 37640:
- if it breaks straight through here, wait till it gets to 37600 before the next move
- if it bounces/retests here we can assume the continuation of the bigger bullish trend and break of the current trend
DOW JONES Key trade focused on the MA50 (4h).Dow Jones has been trading inside a Channel Up since the October 27th Low.
The MA50 (4h) has been the main support throughout this time, having stayed unbroken since November 1st.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price as long as the MA50 (4h) holds.
2. If the MA50 (4h) breaks, sell.
Targets:
1. 38550 (+4.06% rise, the lowest throughout the Channel Up).
2. 36400 (the MA200 4h).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) has been trading under a Falling Resistance, which indicates a potential Bearish Divergence. It favors a break under the Channel Up.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
US30 LongsUS30 is breaking All-Time-Highs.
Trend is still Bullish.
Market opened with bullish momentum; waiting for retracement to enter long positions.
Aggressively enter new long positions once original position is in profit and has found support.
Avoid entering new positions if original position is negative.
Stop loss placed under bullish breakout.
SPX LongsMarket has been breaking All-Time-Highs.
Overall Market Trend is still bullish.
Same sized retracements (indicated by green trend-lines) have printed, along with a subsequent bullish breakout, confirm continuation of uptrend.
Invalidation at 4733.3 (stop loss placed)
No profit target (new highs cannot be accurately determined at this time).
Aggressively enter new positions once original position is in profit and has found support.
Avoid entering new positions if original position goes negative.
Look for similarities in US30, NAS100, FTSE, DAX & NIKKEI.
DOW JONES Huge Bearish Divergence on 4HDow Jones (DJI) is trading within a very aggressive Channel Up since the October 27 bottom that has seen it rise almost by +17%, making new a All Time High (ATH) in the process. In the meantime it is about to hit the Higher Highs trend-line that has been acting as a Resistance, rejecting similar Channel Up patterns since April 14.
What is more alarming than this Resistance, is the Channel Down that has emerged on the 4H RSI. The other two similar Channel Down patterns that emerged after the RSI got overbought, did so right before the index peaked on the Higher Highs trend-line, starting two corrective Bearish Megaphone patterns. Those structures reached at least the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the previous Higher Low, and the 0.618 Fibonacci level from the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up.
Based on this occurrence, we expect yet another Higher Highs rejection that will test at least the 0.618 Fib at 36750, which is our current sell target. Potentially, if the selling pressure is pilled up and transitions to the 1D time-frame, it can reach as low as the 0.5 Fibonacci from the October bottom at 35150.
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Fed's Hope in 2024 - Their Projection & PlanDuring the December FOMC conference, the fed said the appropriate level for interest rate or the fed funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of 2024 from current 5.5%, 3.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026.
Many reporters take that as Fed’s hint to cut rate in 2024, but the Fed added saying these projections are not the committee decision or plan.
So what is the difference between a projection and a plan? And how will the market performance in 2024?
Dow Jones Futures & Options
E-mini Dow Jones
Ticker: YM
1.00 index point = $5.00
Micro E-mini Dow Jones
Ticker: MYM
1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Probably correction is waiting for Dow JonesHello guys,
The Dow Jones recently broke through its all-time high.
My prediction is that at least for the short term, there is a correction ahead of the Dow Jones.
After correction, you can think about buying in the specified areas.
long at current prices is very very dangerous, Take care.
Wave (3) or wave (C)?Hello!
I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market.
While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand.
I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely
Dow Jones:H4According to the stock index chart, it has succeeded in breaking out of its historical ceiling. It is now breaking even to the broken level. The movement path is plotted in the chat.
📉Based on the chart: Important levels are marked
.📢 Please follow your strategy, , this is just my idea
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Market Dynamics: Large Players Enter as Price Reaches Highs
The price has been on a significant bullish rally, breaking historical highs. This suggests that the price has encountered strong buying interest, indicating the presence of buy-side liquidity. From a technical perspective, this suggests that a retracement may be imminent.
As further confirmation, on the daily chart, we can see that the price reached the liquidity of its previous high and swiftly reversed, creating a breaker pattern. If the price continues to decline, it is likely to experience a shallow retracement to prevent buyers from recovering all their losses.
Additionally, in the highlighted area, we can clearly observe a decrease in buying activity and an increase in aggressive short positions. This could be an indication of the involvement of institutional or large traders, and it's something to keep a close eye on.
Furthermore, the catalysts scheduled for tomorrow add more weight to the possibility of a correction. In my experience, this type of price action often occurs before significant market-moving events. A significant correction is highly probable.
For setting stop-loss (SL) levels, I've shared both aggressive and conservative ideas. I've also provided take-profit (TP) levels based on Fibonacci retracement levels at -272 and -618, with the last one indicated by the white line on the chart.
Please note that trading involves risks, and it's essential to use proper risk management techniques and consider your own trading strategy and risk tolerance when making trading decisions. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.
DOW JONES Correction expected due to insanely overbought RSI.Dow Jones (DJI) easily hit last week's (December 12) target (37000) at the top of the 2-month Channel Up (see chart below) with the price grinding ever since on its top:
That was a short-term signal, today we shift our attention to the medium-term and the 1D time-frame where the 1D RSI is 'insanely' overbought near 87.50, a level it hasn't touched since January 2018. In fact if we look a little longer, we can see a perfectly fitting sequence with today's price action in late 2016. The 1D RSI got hugely overbought at 87.40 on December 13 2016 and pulled-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before resuming the uptrend.
This overbought 1D RSI peak was made after two straight Channel Downs leading to approximately +9.58% and +14.50% rises, which is quite similar to what's been happening since April. This tells us not to engage in any buying any more, even though due to being on the end of year euphoria and post Fed rate cut anticipation, it can rise some more. But the risk is higher now than buying near the 1D MA50 again.
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⚠️ XAUUSD : Important Weekly Update (Read The Caption)By checking the gold chart in the weekly time frame, we can see that the price is still in the trading range of $2000, and if the price stabilizes below $2049, we can expect more fall from gold! Note that in order to continue and stabilize the downward trend, the price must penetrate below $1974 and the weekly candle closes below this price! The price is currently in a very important range for decision-making, which can determine the medium-term trend!
Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments.
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
DOW JONES has entered the SELL ZONEDow Jones / US30 has broken into the 0.786 - 1.000 Fibonacci zone, which is the top range of the Channel Up since September 2022.
That is the most efficient range to start adding shorts as a corrective Channel Down is expected to start in January.
Wait for the 1day MACD to form a Bearish Cross.
Target 35450, which is the 0.236 Fibonacci level and has been touched by both previous Bearish Waves of the Channel Up.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES - If This Count Is Accurate, The Last Wave Has Begun.While the channeling doesn't align entirely with my preferences, the symmetry resulting from the alternation, particularly between major Wave 2 and Wave iv of Wave 3, effectively constrains the price action. Notably, the correction spanning from 2018 to 2022 is identified as major Wave 4, which, in my assessment, appears relatively minor due to prior alternation patterns.
I'd like to draw attention to the expanded corrections, predominantly observed at the upper end, each validated by AriasWave counts in terms of wave identification. It appears that we are currently in the conclusive phase of major Wave 5, expected to conclude around the 54,000 mark if its length is approximately akin to that of Wave 1. The upcoming months will be intriguing to observe developments in this vicinity.
It is worth noting the characteristic nature of Wave 5 as a perceived weak final move, a fitting observation given the prevailing market conditions and the absence of significant strength in other markets.