A simple RSI Point Of ViewAnalyzing RSI Divergence in US30: Is a Bear Market or Crash on the Horizon?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) is a key indicator for global markets. Recently, a warning sign has emerged with a divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) observed from July 16, 2024, to September 27, 2024. This divergence, along with high trading volume, raises concerns about a potential market shift. Analysts are comparing this situation to past financial crises, leading to questions about a possible bear market or crash.
Understanding RSI Divergence in US30
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures price momentum. A bearish divergence occurs when prices make a new high but the RSI does not, indicating weakening momentum. Between July and September 2024, US30 showed this divergence: prices reached a higher high, but the RSI formed a lower high, suggesting a loss of buying strength and potential price declines. Additionally, the daily chart shows a lower high in US30 price and a higher low in the RSI, reinforcing the notion of weakening upward momentum.
Is a Bear Market or Another "Black Thursday" Looming?
The current divergence in US30, along with historical comparisons, signals warning signs. However, it remains uncertain whether this will lead to a bear market (a sustained decline of 20% or more) or a major market crash. Several factors could influence the outcome:
- Macroeconomic Conditions: High inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical tensions may exacerbate the divergence.
- Investor Sentiment: Panic among investors could lead to increased selling and sharper declines.
- External Shocks: Global events like financial instability or political turmoil could further destabilize the market.
Conclusion and Daily Chart Analysis
The RSI divergence in US30 from July to September 2024 is a significant development that warrants attention. The daily chart reveals weakening momentum, with a lower high in price and a higher low in the RSI, indicating a higher risk of market correction or downturn. While it is uncertain whether this will lead to a bear market or crash, traders and investors should stay alert and consider adjusting their portfolios.
This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Dowjonesanalysis
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 23-27: S&P NAS GOLD SILVER US&UK OILThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast SEPT 23-27th.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL
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Dow Jones in correction rangeConsidering the price gap that has been created, which has not been filled from any side, as well as touching the ceiling of the upward movement, we expect the price to be corrected until the price gap is filled. According to the chart, short trades can be entered in two ranges
US30 (Log Chart)- firstly i want to explain what is US30, you can google it :
- US30 is a stock market index designed to measure the performance of 30 large industrial companies based on the average stock price of the components "during a specified period".
- So basically...when u have a Top30, if one company fail, this company is replaced by number 31.
- it's same in football or tennis, if you are in the top30 and u fail to win, you lose your rank and down to 31 right? Then u are not in Top30 anymore ?
- So you are replaced in the Top30 list (but sport is not a Ponzi, it's a real effort to be on the Top of the chain).
- Just made this text to explain how a big Ponzi works.
- Companies in US30 are not Ponzi because they work hard to stay in the Top30.
- but in matter of " Efforts", if you have the power to create your own money, you can do everything, and also buy your own stocks.
- Hope u get it.
- So when i read some peoples speak Bitcoin is a Ponzi, it makes me smile.
- it's clear that they didn't read at all Satoshi's White paper, or they are hypocritical.
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- Thirteen years ago today, Satoshi released the Bitcoin genesis block - block 0.
- Embedded in it was a quote, “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks".
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To be a precursor, you need to know the future, Satoshi knew the future.
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- So let's back to the chart :
- from 2009 to 2020. 11 years. DowJones was just perma bullish all the time with some small ridiculous dips.
- you can see how US30 Reacted during Covid worst pandemic situation in the world.
- after a fast dip in 2020 caused by Covid news.
- US30 went up for 672 days ( annotated in chart ) during a 2 years frustrating and painful lockdown.
- so it means those Top30 companies weren't affected by this pandemic situation.
- Really Weird.
- Actually imho, i think they were just preparing the actual dip, but this is just my own view.
- honestly, i just hope my US30 analysis fails.
- it would means that this time, governments are starting to be honest.
Happy Tr4Ding !
US30 / DJ30 / DJI Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideMy Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Newbies,
This is our master plan to Heist US30 / DJ30 / DJI Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Dow Jones to be bullish next 2 daysDJ is expected to be bullish today and test the order block on D1 at 50%Fib level. The expected move is demonstrated in the chart.
The last D1 candle was a bullish engulfing candle which finished the two day consolidation and now the price is expected to target an order block on D1 which is expected to be a strong one as it is coming off from a previous order block. Next two days is expected to be bullish on DJ and we will see some bearish move on coming Friday.
Good luck and use proper risk reward
This idea is for educational purpose only and not a financial advise .
Dow Jones Surges on Surprising Jobs Data, Rebounding from LossesThe Dow Jones Industrial Average staged an impressive rally on Thursday, soaring more than 650 points as positive economic data injected fresh optimism into the markets. The blue-chip index reclaimed its 50-day moving average, providing a much-needed boost after a week of significant losses.
Jobs Data Sparks Market Rally
The unexpected drop in initial jobless claims, which fell to 233,000 for the week ended August 3rd, well below the anticipated 240,000, fueled the market's surge. This sharp decline in unemployment claims eased concerns of a looming recession, pushing investors to return to the market with renewed confidence. The strong jobs report was particularly encouraging given the previous week's claims hit a one-year high of 250,000, stoking fears of economic slowdown.
As a result, the Dow Jones jumped 2.24% in late trading, with key gainers including Intel ( NASDAQ:INTC ) and Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ), which saw gains of over 6% and 3%, respectively. The S&P 500 followed suit, surging 2.3%—its best day of the year—while the Nasdaq Composite rebounded 2.8%, finding support well above its 200-day moving average.
Earnings Hits and Misses
While the broader market celebrated the positive economic news, not all stocks were so fortunate. McKesson (MCK) and Monster Beverage (MNST) were the worst performers in the S&P 500, both diving on disappointing earnings reports. Conversely, Parker Hannifin (PH) and Eli Lilly (LLY) led the S&P gainers, posting strong results that sent their shares higher. Over in the Nasdaq, semiconductor stocks such as Arm Holdings (ARM) and On Semiconductor (ON) led the charge, contributing to the index's impressive rally.
Volume and Market Sentiment
Despite the bullish price action, trading volume was lower on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq compared to Wednesday's session. However, market breadth was decidedly positive, with advancers outpacing decliners by nearly 4-to-1 on the NYSE and slightly less than 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq.
The DOW Jones stock index displays a long-term rising wedge pattern subsequent to an extensive consolidation phase. The support point at December 2023 now serves as a pivot, with any movement below it indicating a bearish reversal pattern. Despite prevailing market conditions, the DOW Jones stock index has exhibited substantial growth.
Investor sentiment, as reported by Investors Intelligence, reflected the market's mixed emotions. The ratio of bullish advisors dropped to 46.9% from 59.4% over the past two weeks, while bearish sentiment increased to 18.7% from 15.6%. The report highlighted concerns about elevated market risk and limited cash on the sidelines to fuel further gains.
Treasury Yields and Oil Prices
In bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose by four basis points to 4%, reflecting the market's cautious optimism following the jobs report. Meanwhile, oil prices also ticked higher, with West Texas Intermediate futures trading around $75.30 a barrel, indicating ongoing strength in the energy sector.
Looking Ahead
As the Dow Jones and other major indexes continue to recover from recent losses, investors will be closely watching upcoming economic data and earnings reports for further signs of market direction. The surprising strength in the labor market has provided a temporary reprieve from recession fears, but with inflation concerns and interest rate hikes still looming, the road ahead may be bumpy.
For now, however, Thursday's rally offers a glimmer of hope that the worst may be behind us, as Wall Street looks to build on this momentum in the days ahead.
Expect an upward correction for the Dow JonesIt seems that we have an upward correction ahead for the Dow Jones index. This rise can occur from the current areas or a little lower and from the overlapping range of the previously broken ceiling in the daily time frame and EMA20 of the same time frame. The purpose of this rise of the Dow Jones index can be the purple box in the first step. And in the final step up to about 41,000
Dow Jones surges to record highs on Fed easing expectationsThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ascended to record highs on July 16th, 2024, fueled by mounting expectations of a Federal Reserve policy shift towards a more accommodative stance.
Fundamental Drivers:
Federal Reserve Policy: The CME FedWatch Tool currently suggests a near-certain likelihood of at least a 25-basis point interest rate cut by September, with the upcoming July FOMC meeting potentially maintaining current rates. This anticipated monetary easing is bolstering investor confidence, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, such as industrials and small-caps.
Economic Data: Recent economic data releases, including stable retail sales figures, point towards a potential "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. This reinforces optimism and supports the ongoing market rally.
Sector Rotation: Investors appear to be strategically shifting away from large-cap technology stocks, which have thrived in a low-interest-rate environment, and allocating capital towards sectors anticipated to outperform under rising interest rates.
Confirmation: The significant rise in UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) on July 16th (up 6.11%) exemplifies the strength in non-technology sectors.
Looking Forward: The Dow Jones' momentum remains robust, and further upward potential exists if upcoming economic data continues to align with the Fed's potential easing narrative. Investors will be keenly focused on forthcoming economic releases and the July FOMC meeting for any insights regarding the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts.
US30 ( CPI ) ( 4H )US30
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency the price trade above turning level at 39,480 , indicates is under bullish pressure
TURNING LEVEL : a black line between resistance and support level around 39,480 , indicates if the price stabilizing above this level reach resistance level , if the breaking turning level reach a support level
RESISTANCE LEVEL : there is a black line above turning level around 39,713 , indicates selling have already increase this level , so if the price trade above turning level reach this level
SUPPORT LEVEL : there is a black line below turning level around 39,137 , indicates buying have already increase this level , so if the price breaking turning level reach this level
PRICE MOVEMENT : first the price will trying to dropping a turning level around 39,480, after rising to the resistance level around 39,713 , then stable above this level reach 39,931 , if the price breaking turning level reach a support level by 39,137 , then stable by open 4h candle above this level reach a 39,734
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 39,713 , 39,931
SUPPORT LEVEL : 39,137 , 38,734
DOWJONESDow Jones analysis
2 hour and daily time frame
Dow Jones is near the 2-hour supply zone. After entering the zone, seeing the confirmation in the 15-minute time frame, we can enter sell positions with a stop just above the zone. If this area is lost, we will wait until it enters the daily supply area. If the ceiling of the daily supply area is touched, downward reversals give us the position of buying trades. to enter the daily latitude zone.
If the 2-hour supply area is maintained, the first target of the midline trading range and the second target can be the 2-hour demand area, which is formed above the daily demand area.
US30 / DJ30 / DJI Market Robbery Plan to heist moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist (US30 / DowJones30) based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned 2 Plans with target in the chart focus on whether Long or short entry. Our target is Red Zone for Bulls and Green Zone for Bears that is High risk Dangerous level market is overbought & Oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan,
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.