distribution on Weekly chartAll I have to say is.
R.I.P US economy.
I don't care about the fundamentals only that the effects of the fundamentals are forecasted into price.
Price tells mee all I need to know about the fundamentals and I don't even need to look at the news to tell you that we're in for a rough time.
Look so very like Wyckoff distribution on the weekly.
6monthly chart looks like a super bearish inverted hammer and tweezer top (albet 2 more months to go on this current candle)
1 monthly chart again showing me signs of a weakening trend, simple bearish divergences on all 3 of my oscillators, RSI, fast and slow all in tandem, stars are aligning.
2W, Weekly again all are looking weak.
Technically, we're still considered to be "bullish" since the bullish market structure is not yet invalidated (recent swing low has remained intact).
But what's worrying for the bulls is that on the weekly and 2W chart RSI has failed just below 70 (the upper limit of bullish territory, from what I've seen RSI divergence SFPs forming between 60-70 is bloody terrifying.) is scaring me. On the monthly chart, the fast oscillator just failed at the 0 line, that's very scary again.
Technically we're not bearish yet, but unless I see otherwise, I'm going to be a contrarian and say we're bearish.
feel free to open up the indicators to see what I'm talking about.
targets marked on the chart.
Dowjonesanalysis
Dow Jones Nearing Completion of 5 Waves ImpulseDow Jones Futures Elliott Wave view suggests that the pullback to 24227 low on 5/29/18 ended in red wave 4 pullback. Above from there, the rally is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure with extension in the 3rd wave higher.
As an impulse, the internal of Minute degree wave ((i)), (( iii )) and ((v)) should also unfold as an impulse with 5 waves structure.
Up from 24227 low, black wave ((i)) ended in 5 waves structure at 24715. Down from there, the pullback to 24342 low ended black wave ((ii)).
The rally from there shows a strong reaction to the upside which ended black wave ((iii)) at around 25418 high. The subdivision of black wave ((iii)) is showing an impulse structure where blue wave (i) ended at 24863, blue wave (ii) ended at 24709 and blue wave (iii) ended at 25327. Blue wave (iv) ended at 25093 and blue wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 25418 high. Near-term cycle from 06/11/18 peak can be completed in black wave ((iv)) at 25255 low and ideally, it should now continue higher in black wave ((v)). However, as long as it stays below black wave ((iii)) peak a double correction lower in black wave ((iv)) can't be ruled out. Anyway, the right side remains to the upside.
As far as a pivot from 24337 low stays intact, we expect the Index to see another push higher in black wave ((v)) to end a 5 waves impulse structure from 5/29/18 low. We don’t like selling the index and the right side remains to the upside.
Medium term uptrend on Dow JonesdowjonesThe index is on a symmetrical Channel Up on 4H (RSI = 55.713, MACD = 53.000). Given the overbought levels on both 5H & 1D (STOCH, STOCHRSI, Williams), I expect a pull back to 24,582 before reaching 24,996.70 again and 25,226.56 towards the end of the month. With a Higher High on 1D (Highs/Lows = 152.8571), I believe the long term downtrend came to an end. However, if 24,541.60 (EMA20/50) breaks, then the index will look for support at 24,035.92 (SMA200).
IS THE US STOCK MARKET READY FOR ITS CORRECTION (S&P ANALYSIS)This is the scenario we are currently looking at (EXPLAINED BELOW):
As you know, we recently had the WORST Dow Jones single-day drop in history. (That's the last I'll speak of the DOW, now lets analyze a true index).
The S&P has shown us signs that maybe it's ready to correct too. We see the weakly chart giving us a STRONG bearish engulfing candle at a top with extreme agreement across many indicators. We then see it make an attempt (arguably) at lower lows on the daily chart, confirmed by downward momentum.
SO WHAT'S NEXT?
Well of course we don't know- but here's my outlook based on the technical analysis. We will see a pullback SOON. This pull back will take us up in to the area I have labeled POSSIBLE RANGE. From here- the market will decide what it wants. If it wants to remain bullish we may see it get stuck in a range for some time, before breaking the ranging ceiling and achieving new highs. IF it decides to go bearish, the pullback will result in a selloff and we will fall down to the levels listed on the chart.
HAPPY TRADING. QUESTIONS WELCOMED BELOW.
Idea on the DJILooking at the moving average we can see that it is trending hard to the down side. A few days of recovery and considerable buying power has yet to stop the MA trend. We may see an attempt to bring the market back up for a rally, however, all things considered the market had a great run in 2017 and we may have hit an all time high and look to start a correction to the downside.
We will see what the next few weeks has in terms of media FUD and FOMO.
I do believe we might see another 6-10% to the downside.
Thoughts or feedback?
Please understand this is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
DJI (CBOT)B&B Pattern. Trade setup with Buy Limit position (EP) at 25387 Stop Loss (SL) at 24531 and Take Profit (TP) at 26186.
Money Management
I have 22,800 USD in my portfolio. I can lose 10% of the port which is 2,280 USD. I will Trade MINI DOW JONES ($5)
Position Sizing
1 Tick = $5
1 Contract size need IM = $3,685 (I can open not more than $22,800 / $3,685 = 6.187 Cons)
It is 856 Tick from EP to SL, with 1 Con, I will lose 856 * $5 = $4,280
To lose 2,280 USD I need to open 2,280 / 4,280 = 0.53 Con
Then I will put 1 Contract
If I win, I will gain (26186 - 25387) * $5 * 1 Con = $3,995
P.S. I will not trade this position because stop loss is beyond my acceptable number
short at 25030 for target 24870 in 24-48hi short at 25030 psychological level and also overbought + a bit of euphoria ..maybe the last rally before the big correction as small crashlie aout 2015 or februar 2016 but for now i just short on old resistance who become support
short at 25030
target 24870
gain = 160pts
Dow Jones Long SetupHello Guys,
We hope your trading week is successful so far.
I have a short term long setup for you guys in the Dow Jones future.
If the market stays below 22034 i like to buy it at around 21866 with a stop loss below 21685 and an initial target of 22229.
I will only buy the market at 21866 when it stays below the high of 22034, if it breaks that high without reaching our entry level we will delete the setup. I will update you here. WE ONLY LIKE TO BUY WE DONT ADVISE TO SELL!
Hope that helps and trade safely
Has the Dow Recovered?To me this is pretty simple, the Dow was provided with support by the 50 Moving Average and appreciating, but the Coppock curve is still negative so I would wait till the 20,700 make to buy. Also the ADX Green Line has finally crossed over representing a new trend change. So I would buy until the Trendline resistance.
Update on Dow Jones: expect correction lowerThis is an update on this earlier forecast from 28-01-2017:
We have seen a retrace below the 19925 followed by a surge up to 20250 as predicted.
See snapshot below:
It looks like the Dow Jones is topping.
Notice how (on balance) volume and price start to diverge. This is a clear sign of weakness.
The previous analysis is still valid: Expect a notable correction in the days ahead. First target is 19275.