Combined US Equities Lousy Breakout means BreakdownThe combined US equities chart failed to push significantly and is consolidating. when it does this, it looks like it is rolling over to fall off a cliff.
IF we look carefully, besides the weakening technical indicators, there is also weakening price action, with the second or third lower high in the hourly time frame.
That said, the decision box needs to be broken out of, and then the critical support (red line).
Once these give way, it would be too obvious and there should be a sizeable retracement to the previous support, now being the downside target.
Dowjonesindex
DOW JONES (US30) Trend Following Setup Explained
Dow Jones Index is currently retesting a recently broken horizontal resistance.
Because the trend in strongly bullish, a buying wave may initiate from the underlined
blue area.
Our confirmation will be a bullish breakout - 4H candle close above a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated to 39080 / 39200 levels then.
If the price drops and sets a new lower low, the setup will become invalid.
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US30 IDEASo far the overall movement of US30 is bearish.
Price might be heading to the HTF LH, meaning that the current bullish trend is because price is reaching for the HTF LH and until it breaks it then the overall bearish trend will be broken.
I'm trading the bull run on the LTFs.
Predicted movements:
wave 1, 2 and 3
Dow Jones 4hr TF I anticipate an impending retracement for the Dow Jones index, as it has recently reached its target of 12,756. We should begin witnessing a decline from this point onwards.
The Dow Jones index has recently established a new lower low, and I am awaiting a price break below 12,745, which would further confirm the bearish sentiment.
Dow Jones: Breather 😮💨Dow Jones is taking a breather near the resistance at 34 363 points, showing (again) a distinct response to this mark. Soon, though, the index should resume the ascent to develop the top of wave (i) in blue, which should then initiate a prominent downward movement. However, there is a 30% chance that Dow Jones could drop below the support at 32 246 points, plunging into the orange zone between 31 675 and 29 939 points to already expand wave alt.(ii) in blue. From this low, the index would then start a fresh upward movement.
Dow Jones: Spring Fever 🥱Has Dow Jones caught spring fever? At the moment, the index seems to lack the necessary drive to continue expanding wave (i) in blue. However, we expect Dow Jones to pull itself together soon and to summon up enough momentum to make it above the resistance at 35 521 points. The index should not surmount the higher mark at 36 446, though, but finish the current movement and turn downwards again. There is also still a 35% chance that Dow Jones could slip below the support at 28 635 points, heading for a new low in the form of wave iv in magenta.
Dow Jones: Periscope 👀Like a periscope, Dow Jones is craning its neck upwards, watching waves v in orange and (i) in blue unfolding before its eyes. To finish the current movement, the index should climb above the resistance at 35 521 points but ideally stop just short of the next mark at 36 446 points. Wave (ii) in blue should then lead Dow Jones decidedly back below 35 521 points. A 35% chance remains, though, for the index to turn downwards and to drop below the support at 28 635 points. In that case, Dow Jones would develop a new low in the form of wave alt.iv in magenta first before heading upwards again.
Honeywell: Into the Honeypot 🍯Honeywell should push its fingers deep into the green honeypot between $194.17 and $178.41, breaking through the support at $196. There, the share should gain new strength by finishing wave 2 in green and turn upwards again. First, it should climb back above $196 and then take off from this mark, aiming for the resistance at $222.56. Once above this level, the course should gather further momentum and continue the ascent.
Walgreens Boots Alliance: Take Your Medicine 💊Walgreens Boots Alliance should take its medicine as the share needs some more strength to make it above the resistance at $42.29. From there, the course should rise into the green zone between $52.38 and $59.29 to conclude wave 3 in green before we anticipate a countermovement. A 38% chance remains, though, that WBA could drop below the support at $32.70 instead, subsequently slipping below the support at $30.39 as well.
Dow Jones: Defenses 🍵When it’s cold outside, it’s always important to strengthen your body’s defenses. To boost its own immune system, Dow Jones is currently taking an invigorating sip of hot turmeric-ginger tea in the form of the orange zone between 33 283 and 31 689 points. We expect the index to expand this healthy swig to finish wave iv in orange. Afterwards, it should be bolstered enough to tackle the resistance at 34 707 points. There’s a 30% chance, though, that the warm beverage might relax Dow Jones too much so that the index could slip through the orange zone. In that case, it should drop into the blue zone between 30 955 and 29 934 points first before climbing upwards again.
Dow Jones: Bar ExercisesOur athletic Dow Jones! After it has hopped from line to line, all the while finishing not only the overarching downwards movement in the course of wave iv in magenta but also waves (i) and (ii) in blue, the index has continued its fitness training with some bar exercises at the resistance line at 30513 points. We expect it to upswing from this mark, rising into the blue zone between 32567 and 33685 points to complete wave (iii) in blue, before starting a countermovement. However, there is a 45% chance that Dow Jones could lose its grip and drop below the support at 29640 points, thus triggering further descent below the next mark at 28635 points.
E-mini Dow Jones Futures (YM1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 33432
Pivot: 31862
Support : 30966
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and breaking above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 31862 where the pullback support is to the 1st resistance at 33432 where the overlap resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci retracement sits
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 30966 where the swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Due to the easing treasury yeilds and oil prices, we have a bullish bias on the Dow Jones Index
E-mini Dow Jones Futures (YM1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 33432
Pivot: 31862
Support : 30966
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and breaking above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 31862 where the pullback support is to the 1st resistance at 33432 where the overlap resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 30966 where the swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Due to the easing treasury yeilds and oil prices, we have a bullish bias on the Dow Jones Index.
Dow Jones: Jello 🍮What’s your favorite kind of jello? Cherry? Lemon? Raspberry? Dow Jones seems to prefer woodruff, as the index has been munching through the green jello between 30576 and 31689 points quite efficiently. Now that it has finished wave 2 in green, Dow Jones is already on its way to the next green jello between 37669 and 39249 points, where it should complete wave 3 in green. To take a bite there, it has to climb above the resistance at 34246 points first, though. Also, there is still a 42% chance that Dow Jones could wobble downwards below the support at 30109 points and thus below the next one at 29639 points as well.
E-mini Dow Jones Futures (YM1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 32600
Pivot: 31872
Support : 30974
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from pivot at 31872 where the pullback resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st support at 30974 where the swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and rise to 1st resistance at 32600 where the pullback resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: Due to the easing treasury yeilds and oil prices, we have a bullish bias on the Dow Jones Index. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
E-mini Dow Jones Futures (YM1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 31860
Pivot: 31240
Support : 30417
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price breaking the ascending trendline and moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to pivot at 31240 where the swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Once there is downside confirmation that price has broken pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 30417 where the pullback support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 31860 where the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Due to Powell's Hawkish Remarks about monetary policy at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, we have a bearish view on the Dow Jones Index.
E-mini Dow Jones Futures (YM1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 32591
Pivot: 31864
Support : 30432
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price breaking the ascending trendline and moving below the ichimoku indicator, ,we have a bearish bias that price will drop from pivot at 31864 where the pullback resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are to 1st support at 30432 where the pullback support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and rise to 1st resistance at 32591 in line with pullback resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection.
Fundamentals: Due to Powell's Hawkish Remarks about monetary policy at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, we have a bearish view on the Dow Jones Index.
Micro Dow Jones Futures (MYM1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 32606
Pivot: 31864
Support : 30405
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price breaking the ascending trendline and moving below the ichimoku indicator, ,we have a bearish bias that price will drop from pivot at 31864 where the pullback resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st support at 30405 where the pullback support is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and rise to 1st resistance at 32606 in line with pullback resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: Due to Powell's Hawkish Remarks about monetary policy at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, we have a bearish view on the Dow Jones Index .
E-mini Dow Jones Futures (YM1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 32603
Pivot: 31862
Support : 30417
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price breaking the ascending trendline and moving below the ichimoku indicator, ,we have a bearish bias that price will drop to pivot at 31862 where the pullback support, 100% fibonacci projection, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension are. Should price break pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 30417 where the pullback support is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 32603 in line with pullback resistance.
Fundamentals: Due to Powell's Hawish Remarks about monetary policy at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, we have a bearish view on the Dow Jones Index.
E-mini Dow Jones Futures (YM1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 33435
Pivot: 32609
Support : 31851
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price breaking out of the ascending trendline and moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to pivot at 32609 where the pullback support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is downside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 31851 where the pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 33435 where the pullback resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Due to fears of aggressive interest rate hikes ahead of the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, we have a bearish view on the Dow Jones Index.
Micro Dow Jones Futures (MYM1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 33432
Pivot: 32605
Support : 31852
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price breaking out of the ascending trendline and moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to pivot at 32605 where the pullback support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is downside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 31852 where the pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 33432 where the pullback resistance is.
Fundamentals: Due to fears of aggressive interest rate hikes ahead of the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, we have a bearish view on the Dow Jones Index.