US30 weekly analysis. October month was extremely bullish. In-fact, it was the single most bullish month is all of US30.. at 4350 pips!... Successfully taking out Septembers highs just last week. It could possibly make a reversal this week or continue to take out Augusts highs as well since that's only about 600 pips away. Will watch Monday and see how it plays out. probably will push to take out August high and then reverse on Friday for NFP.
Dowjonesindustrial
US30 28/10/2022The price currently moving in an uptrend channel while its also facing support at 31851 & resistance at 32125. Now a breakout of the support could mean a breakout of the uptrend channel. so if price continue to respect the resistance & closes below the support on a 30m TF atleast, then it could continue pushing down to the next support zone at 31612.
Similarly if price respects the support & closes above the resistance then it could continue pushing up to the previous high at 32307.
Dow Jones ( DJI ) Next MoveDOW JONES INDUSTRAIL AVERAGE ( DJI )
Time Frame - H1
We have ELLIOT IMPULSIVE WAVE ( Bearish ) in Long Time Frame #LTF
Completed " 123 " Wave and Forming " 4th " Impulsive wave will Reject from Fibonacci Level ( 50% - 61.80% )
BULLISH CHANNEL Pattern in Short Time Frame #STF need Rejection from the Upper Trend Line #UTL
ELLIOT TRIPLE WAVE COMBO in Short Time Frame #STF and completed the " Y " Wave
Sell After Rejection from the Demand Zone ( 31908 - 32176 )
Dow Jones Analyze( Road Map/Scenarios)!!!🗺️Dow Jones Industrial Average Index technical analysis (DJI) moved as I expected it 👇✅.
DJI was pushed back from the resistance zone & SMA 20 (monthly TF) as I expected.
Now, we have Two Scenarios here:
Scenario 1: DJI will make the Expanding Leading Diagonal.
Scenario 2: DJI has passed the corrective waves by Double Zigzag Correction, and We have to wait for breaking the Resistance Zone by DJI (Low Possible).
❗️ Note ❗️: If DJI touches 31885$ , we can verify the first scenario.
Dow Jones Analyze (DJIUSD), Timeframe Daily⏰( Log Scale )
🔴Resistance zone: 33700$ until 33260$
🟢Heavy Support Zone: 31260$ until 29680$
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US30 20/10/2022US30 currently ranging in between 30793 as its resistance & 30266 as its support while also retesting a HTF downtrendline. Now a breakout of the ranging Phase might determine whether US30 will continue moving down in respect to the downtrendline or make a breakout of the trendline to continue pushing up.
So if the price makes a break & close below the Support zone of the ranging phase, atleast on 1HR TF, then we can start to look for trades on the short side in short TF like 15 to 30 MIN TF in hopes of price continue to push down in respect to the downtrendline to retest the next support level at 29620.
However if price respects the support of the ranging phase & closes above the resistance, then it would be a breakout of the downtrendline & we can look for trades on the long side expecting price to continue pushing up all the way to retest the next HTF key zone at 31660.
Dow Jones: Bar ExercisesOur athletic Dow Jones! After it has hopped from line to line, all the while finishing not only the overarching downwards movement in the course of wave iv in magenta but also waves (i) and (ii) in blue, the index has continued its fitness training with some bar exercises at the resistance line at 30513 points. We expect it to upswing from this mark, rising into the blue zone between 32567 and 33685 points to complete wave (iii) in blue, before starting a countermovement. However, there is a 45% chance that Dow Jones could lose its grip and drop below the support at 29640 points, thus triggering further descent below the next mark at 28635 points.
DOWJONES this week?!We saw on Thursday the market broke the structure and on Friday went for a retracement so I think we have a nice buy entry between 29400 - 29100 price it might go lower than that for stop loss hunt aka sell side liquidity smart money is Going to fill their bags at 30900-31200 levels.
US30 Analysis and Trade IdeaCPI Data on Thursday will clear things up.
A hot inflation report will bring the market tumbling down.
The FED is signaling they will continue their hawkishness... so the USD will remain bullish . A cooler CPI report may get them to consider an adjustment
to their data driven decision making.
We'll see.
Expect some sideways action until Thurs.
I am looking for sell setups, as this is the prevailing trend, personally. Waiting until news day to enter this market is best, imo.
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Will Dow Jones fall to 27k this year?My outlook for the stock markets this year is bearish and, in fact, I have expected a fall for around 6 months now. Although it didn't happen, YET, let's try to see the bigger picture and understand what's happening.
For the past 9 months, Dow30 was trading in a range. You may argue that we have higher highs in place, but this, in my opinion, is window dressing. In fact, Dow was trading at an average of 35500. Yes, indeed, 34k support held for 6 times, but recoveries after touching it are anemic, highs are marginal and this support held not because there was much buying power there, just lack of selling by big players.
My true opinion is that in this past 9 months we have had a large distribution, when " they" are done distributing is hard to say though...
In conclusion, I expect a drop for Dow (and indices in general) this year, and my target is 27k
Dow Jones Industrial Average relative strength on the riseThe overall US equity market is still having a hard time stabilizing and catching its footing, however, if we examine the major US indices closer we do notice more and more relative strength coming out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
This past week it never took out its September lows, the MACD momentum oscillator continues to climb aggressively, and on Friday we remained in the top 1/3 of Thursday's bullish engulfing bar.
I started a position on Thursday and will keep a tight leash risk managing it going forward. More notes on the chart.
US30 (HIGH PROBABILITY BUY SETP SOON)On Tuesday, U.S. indices closed in greens for the second consecutive session as Treasury Yields fell & investors grow hopeful that the Feds will decrease its aggressive tightening policy amidst jobs data, US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) rose 825.43pts (2.8%) to 30316, we believe the UPTREND move will be resuming this coming days & weeks due to the November 08/2022, midterm elections in the U.S.
At the mean time, Here we can see clearly the next move for US30 in H1 time frame, we have our EP & our TP, keep a close eye US30, happy pip hunting traders.
DJI - God Help Us All... Welcome to the Great depression 2022 Dow Jones industrial average index has lost its February 2020 support. As this support did not hold i am convinced that the oldest US index has begun the great depression, not recession but depression. You can already see what fiat pairs with the USD are doing.
The run up was just phenomenal to say the least. We've been essentially parabolic since 2009, with the total run up since 1987 flash crash. Since then economy was on steroids.
The first sign of realism came with the dot.com bubble. It was especially hard on the S&P 500 index which lost more than 80% back then. Then came 2008 financial crisis which was seen predominant in the DJI. After that it was just up up up, sideways and up.
Covid dump just showed how laveraged this market is and sparked asset inflation on steroids. .... NOW ... Will see what happens.
DJI could still drop by 1k points, but not much lower for now as it is expected to go into a retracement first, if it doesn't go already. This retracement could drag out for year or two before continuation down. Where you might think?... below 2008 bottom is quite realistic, but for that it can take 10-30 years to play out. Again its a depression not recession, remember that. We are clearly not dropping like in the 1929-1932, therefore i think we will bleed slower.
Aftermath could be ... who knows... 20-30% of people out of job.... in 1930s there were around 25-30% of them on the streets.
During DJI retracement there could still be a rotation in the stock and crypto market, with little projects reaching new ATHs, but still lets not expect to much, and rather realize that the US economy has POPPED.
DISCLAMER:
I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
TVC:DJI
Dow emini stops@20% bear mkt with mma50 & GANN line supportDow e-mini officially entered bear market territory breaking below 20% decline limit & the weekly wma200 line. It is the only major index that made a lower low & confirmed by the transports DJT. Dow, with a lot of defensive stocks, has been holding the strongest all this time & I think it will be the last to capitulate before the market bottoms. (After market takes out the weak hands & stop losses)
However, it is still uptrend in the monthly chart with mma50 & my GANN line as support. It took only 7 weeks for it to drop 14% from the August top…exactly from 1 GANN line to the next one below. (Looks like a capitulation)
The moves this week will determine if current support will hold as Dow consolidates before the 4Q2022 rally up to December. (This may technically still be a double bottom…only a little below the 0.386 Fib retracement zone from pandemic low to ATH)
The monthly mma50 must hold to be bullish. Otherwise the next support will be the next GANN line below around the 27k to 28k zone…near the 0.50 Fib retracement zone.
Not trading advice
Dow Jones Now Aligned To 1929 - People just don't listenWall ST. IN PANIC AS STOCKS CRASH
History lessons from
“The Great Crash”?
Galbraith described these 1920s investment companies as “more wonderous than the South Seas Company” in that “they were undertakings the nature of which was never to be revealed”. Perhaps present-day “special-purpose acquisition companies” (SPACs) – “blank-cheque” companies – match them in lack of transparency.
Beginning in 1928, additional market support came from optimistic commentary: the “process of reassurance … (which) eventually achieved the status of a profession” … “For effective incantation, knowledge is neither necessary nor assumed.” Today, as then, optimistic seers get more airplay than spoilsports predicting an end to the good times.
“Organised support” was mobilised when the boom faltered in 1929. Financiers made coordinated efforts to shore up the market, although there was more show than substance.
In today’s world, “organised support” has been replaced by the “Greenspan put” – the US Federal Reserve’s readiness to prop-up sharply falling financial markets, pioneered by the chairman Alan Greenspan in 1987, repeated by his successors Ben Bernanke in 2008 and by Jerome Powell in 2018 and 2020. This has proved more substantive than in 1929, but at some cost. Each time the market has been saved, this was taken as endorsement of the speculation.
As prices fell in 1929, balance sheets were cross-infected, with prime stocks sold at fire-sale prices because non-prime stocks in the same portfolio were illiquid. This phenomenon re-emerged in 2008 and in March 2020.
The Shiller cyclically-adjusted Price/Earnings ratio for US stocks is currently twice its historical average and well above its peak before the 1929 crash. It is just short of the peak which foreshadowed the 1999 tech-wreck. Does history rhyme?
Instead of Billion this time its Trillions.
DJI - World's End Scenario
I published this privately a while ago - I think it might be fitting to republish with the current macro ecomnomic and political situation as we have reached the forecasted BIG DROP. Maybe we will see $13k BTC afterall.
....
Why are people still obsessed with 1929? Whether they are right or wrong that Bearish Divergence doesn't look good!
While you can easily argue the world is very different to 100 years ago the market fractals do present similar structure and we have slipped into similar macro environments both political and economic. DJI looks like it has topped so worth taking a look.
- Current Day based on Monthly Chart, 200 Monthly MA
- Crash time frame in 1929 to 1932 was about 3 years - Today I would estimate this as 10 year period based on the fractal.
Interesting outcomes from the experiment assuming the DJI has topped:
- DRAWDOWN: 1929-1932 drawdown was 90% setting market back 14 years. From Point A to C, this will take us to $3,500. That sets us back by 25 years (no clear correlation).
- FRACTAL: The fractal is close to the present day formation assuming the DJI has topped out (close correlation).
- MA: The MA is pacing at a relatively similar trajectory - from the touch in 2009 to today's position at $18,000. Coincidently $18,000 is the bottom of the March 2020 crash at point B. (Interesting coincidence)
- SUPPORT: The immediate crash period from point A to Point B would take place around September this year (2022) - this lines up with my crypto forecasts. (Interesting coincidence)
- BEARISH DIVERGANCE : The RSI structure is very similar on lead up and localised formation. In 2020 we had the covid pandemic which delivered the recent low point on the RSI but the 1929 has the same strucue, just a more stable price. Can we trust the 1929 data? (Interesting coincidence)
- TRADING: Whilst a crash of this magnitude (common in crypto) would require some form of major catalist resulting in horror for average Joe and destroy a generation of wealth, it offers amazing trading conditions both ong and short for swing traders on longer timeframes. There are about 6 swing long opportunities during the 10 year crash, each lasting over 1 year and offering 40-50% upside
Is it likely, of course not. It's only happened once in a century :)
Is it possible, well it has happened before :)
... hmm, that bearish divergence don't look good... it might be time to look at shorts again?
Best, Hard Forky
Dow Jones Technical Analysis ahead of FOMCThe US headline CPI data released last week surprised the market with a smaller drop than expected. As such, a higher chance is being given to a 75-basis-points rate hike in the upcoming September FOMC meeting. The US stock market reacted with a major sell-off last week, signalling that the summer rally has overstayed its welcome.
The Dow Jones plunged by 1,300 points or 4.2% last week. The S&P500 dropped by 5.2%, while the NASDAQ declined by 6.0%.
The interest rate decision from the Fed due this Wednesday (UTC -4) will be a significant event for US markets this week. The market is currently pricing in an 85% chance of a 75bps rate hike and a 15% chance of a 100bps hike.
Looking at the current price action for the Dow Jones in combination with the Schaff Trend Cycle indicator, indicates that the downside's strength still present and may continue to stick around. The Schaff Trend Cycle is currently sitting far below the 25 level at 7.6.
However, this indicator’s current condition may also be a sign that the Dow Jones may be oversold. In such a case, we might expect the index to perform a reversal and retest the 31,200 level, before continuing the downtrend. Traders looking for a counter-trend trade might want to watch and wait for the Schaff Trend Cycle to close above the 25 levels.
With the upcoming FOMC meeting and the expectation of a 75bps or greater rate hike, we may expect a reaction to the downside during the day and a hitting of the 30,000-support area. Breaking below the 30,000-demand zone will open up the 29,500 to 29,000 targets.