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Dowjonesindustrial

The Trade Desk Short Setup Trade the Range until it breaks and here we have a classic example . TTD has been inside this range since Nov 2020 and has respected the Top , Bottom and mid range of this descending channel . We are currently approaching a key resistance at the top of the Descending channel . Hitting the very top Fib level that I have marked and rejecting there would add to the pattern thus far of another lower high. This of course can claim that resistance and hold but keeping things simple and trading the range until it breaks is the best play. SL placement is straight forward here and depending on your appetite for risk the widest option is above the ATH or the alternative lower highs depending on your entry and risk management . Know your invalidation and Like and Follow for regular analysis .
NASDAQ:TTDShort
by SJTRADESFUTURES
US30 UptrendUS30 is in a strong uptrend right now but rejected at 36600. No break of trend yet nor incomplete order-block that needs to be filled so uptrend still strong and valid. We can expect it to rally back up to 36600 and catch a few points but chances of a strong rejection possible again so I don’t suggest a hodl through the 36600 area, a reversal/counter-trend trade could be valid at the 36600 area again if there are enough confirmations and you know how to execute the style. Good luck
OANDA:US30USDLong
by pappidel
Wall Street - Surpasses another extensionHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: To see more information - review the linked ideas for more reading upon the suppressed VIX and S&P500. The addition of the overlay of the SPX does not provide a clear 100% correlation as the top 30 companies in the US and the SPX comparison does not 100% move in parity despite both being within the same country. There are differences where sectors perform worse in Health care, energy, consumer goods, automotive as opposed to the 30 individuals who can out perform. Fibonacci extension - using the inverse method, I'm aware I use the inverse extension tool but this methodology aligns with pivot points and price reacts clearly upon this method. Idea tracking at the bottom is in progress - not much data is compiled, but will be added as we go, but for full scope, the charts are available to keep up to date for those who do not follow multi-assets. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Firstly why has the SPX and US30 become so bullish? Simply put, as the FED Funds have been slashed - and with yields being key to movements of both institutional and retail - credit deposits provide a little return so if the trend is up and to the right, then a standard metric is sure, keep on investing regardless of the high value. This keeps the Shiller ratio and price earnings ratio are seen as "this seems fine" (to view the website to review these metrics, click the link below) - www.multpl.com . To further understand this, the use of the cross-asset comparison shows a simplistic view but also a reality. US yields Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and Yields shows an opportunity where imbalances have established for longs where the dollar will show some strength. Why the Stock market didn't crash was due to the FED, with the correction to the 50-61.8% Fibonacci zone, this was due to the movement of money in outflows changing hands to new influx of buyers - the need for liquidity is everything. In a generalistic term - buying bonds from institutions and buy backs are generating cash, where will this be placed? Not into CDs as the yield is cut based on the cash generation. The feedback loop allows the movement of cash is within the Stock market hence the indices movement towards the overextension targets. The representation of said loop cycle is visualised below. Monthly Imbalance Looking back on the monthly chart - select areas have been found for longs, additional longs and further longs as the market refused to dead cat bounce during the pandemic resurgence. The monthly ray has been used to plot the higher lows which have failed to close outside the ray. Even though price did break the ray - it actually reverted to a pivot point which will be shown in the following chart image . The monthly low formation aligned and created an equal low - which matches a three consecutive which occurred Aug, Sept, Oct 2016. Monthly US30 FIBO chart* The Fibonacci had shown a deep correction which pivoted to continue the uptrend - but at the same time triggered a large change of hands back in February 2020. Whilst this happened, it did discount the market heavily through to the 0.786% Fibonacci, but the important factor is where it aligned upon the three consecutive bearish candles. Now refer to the QTR chart The quarterly chart is clean just removes all noise and provides clear information of the uptrend from creating imbalances along the way to revert from. The net closing out from buyers exhaustion to a selling change of hands offered a close out from a correction to rest on the new imbalance to add a new position upon or longer term investors who use funds or hedge FX, this would indicate profit taking on a selling imbalance. Please note - the current Sequence may not reach the full extension or may, but a sell imbalance has yet to be clearly identified, but what is beginning to show on the monthly and weekly timeframe has provided a clear opportunity to create at least a correction impending as the weekly channel has become steep and is showing a tail off as a wedge would normally suggest. Weekly Imbalances The overall trend is your friend, clearly shows a multiple buying opportunities to keep pivot points on the Fibonacci extension pattern to completed the overextended pattern. The newly formed which has rested upon the -0.27% Fibonacci has indicated the pivot level has withstood (refer to white box) where three valid wicks have provided a key upper zone to remove early sellers. The two key purple zones fit perfectly at both the "0" Fibonacci full retracement to the previous market structure high and also before this, the 0.236% . SPX Chart Refer to link below. Here is the weekly chart for the SPX500 - which shows the extension target -0.618 or 4,465 points, price has reacted in favour of an extended bullish move where price corrected on a five week consolidation phase before securing a "resistance turned support" but in reality the overextended market phase had not yet completed, so the probability was in favour of longs. The Daily chart Note: this is only valid on a bearish scenario where the -0.618 or 1.1618 Extension is no longer clear of buying pressure and looks to correct. Invalid if data is bullish towards continued growth of the Index. The daily has provided a great build up on creating higher highs to test the rising channel with three consistent tops within the white boxes, but only twice tested the channel bottom, which has provided two major lower high formations. With a possible third forecasted on the chart - this will indicate a sell off whereby price can pivot from as it has now created an all time high. The probability of pivot levels may not occur with a change of hands in the short term, but a correctional in accordance with other major pivot levels have all provided a consolidation zone to allow an imbalance to form, so using the historic data, price >50% probability will look to 36055* est as a reference pivot. What can the chart also indicate that buyers were still in control? Within the inner channel construct lays a rising wedge, but this only took price to form a short term correction for buyers on the four day as well as the two chart to pick up a discounted long addition and . Note - the red lines which identify the four day channel align with the one day channel, but remove noise of lower timeframe candles. [ Reference four day ]** The four day chart shows a clearer image of showing where the wicks show the same highs as does the two day which follow the same pattern but again remove consolidation phases and simple show a larger candle in a bearish or bullish candlestick - where the wick forms a shorter wick or none - as per candlestick analysis, this indicates that the movement can provide a change of hands. Reference Two day VIX (Volatility Index) please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. There are multiple talking points here which are noticeable. The corrective channel is ever present upon the weekly and two day whereby the channel has created opportunities for longs in a bearish scenario but has been rejected upon numerous occasions. The VIX has been leaving multiple wicks above the 10.00 zone and is drifting currently between 14 lows to 28 highs which relate back to the 15th September. See the full chart to track here; VIX VS SPX Inverse correlation at its finest - but not causation? or is it? Read the US Yields - this can indicate why the corrective state of play is not present as yet. Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established. To see a tracking of the full chart on the weekly timeframe - this is possible to view as part of a full analysis scope. Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! Keep aware of a bullish weekly formation that the channel never stops to corrects, based on the vicious cycle of printing the Trillion dollar coin and also ever moving the debt ceiling., plus the cycle of money being put back in the market on repeat. We all win Bearish the cycle completes and the fun stops in order to reset at a pivot point to continue growth. Not an advocate, but it seems the right thing to do. Everything must come down right at some point? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
U
by LupaCapital
2
US30 - Where we can see Buy Pressure 😋 / Smart Money TradingTechnical Overview: - Dow Jones We like to see price react to our buy zones providing intraday/scalps as they are not meant to be strong as the lower zone marked :) Simple, whoever tells you short is selling you lies, you want to be on the safe side? stay bullish on US markets simple as that. Wait for dips if they happen don't chase the market :) Analysis is only 1 piece of the puzzle 🧩 Our analysis is a sentiment for the upcoming week, month. Use this as a weather forecast, you are the person that has to put on a jacket when it’s raining. Trade this sentiment based off your own entry strategy at the right time. Flow with the Devil 😈 Trade with the manipulation👾
ULong
by FlyDownX
3
$DJI Dow Jones heading to Waterfall - WEEKLY CHARTHi traders! It's thatsBuck @twitter. I'm changing my prediction on a DOW jones LONG. After more analysis of the charts I found the DOW jones to be in a tricky triangle ending point. I painted the triangle green instead of red. Let's just say that I'm predicting massive sell off by the end of December 2021. Expecting 2 year swing in favor of Bears. Updates to follow with Gannzilla take profit points? Keep an eye on the USDCHF and USDCAD to confirm the devaluation of the US dollar. USA is BROKE and asking for more stimulus to try to dodge the debt waterfall.
TVC:DJIShort
by tazerfleece
Dow Jones 2021 vs Dow Jones 1929Hi there, Comparing the charts (before 1929 to 1929) and (before 2021 to 2021), they are scarily similar, with many similar patterns, from the perspective of only purely TA, this could be the scenario playing out, but we need some strong fundamental reason for this to happen, what could it be? Since the start of the covid 19, we saw the market crashed, but in the end, we found out it was purely a correction, but there is one reason, that could be the consequence of the next global depression (?), that is the printing money, cannot just solve a recession. Imagine this scenario: Where the only good in the economy is rice and rice costs $1 a pound, and imagine you and all others earn $100 a month. Each month you buy 100 lbs of rice exchanging $1 for 1 lb of rice; so the real value of $1 is 1 lb of rice. Now suppose the government simply prints more dollar bills and gives you and everyone else an additional $100. If you want to eat more than 100 lbs of rice a month, now you can do so, but, since others like you also want to do the same, the demand for rice in the economy would go up and very likely its price as well. Now you would have to give up, say $2 for each lb of rice . This, is inflation , and it is decreasing the real value of your dollars, you are getting less rice for every dollar than you used to. This would be the perfect example, but there is a problem in 2021, which is that the wages are not following the massive increase of inflation , due to the massive printing we had, so instead of having $200 to buy 100 pounds of rice, you still have $100 to try to buy 100 pounds of rice($2 each pound of rice now). In conclusion with this scenario, this will have consequences in the long term to the bad numbers of the unemployment and which will cause trouble in the economy, and thats when we start heading for a recession. Back to the charts, all of this bearish price action, can it be the top of this bull market? It looks like it, we could still have another rally, another top, but the top I would say its very close, and this last bearish price action is very similar to a top out back in 1929. I will short Dow jones to the targets mentioned in the charts, but remember, its a long term investment.
DJ:DJIShort
by fernandoc17
9
US30 - Would like to buy every dip 😋(order-blocks)Technical Overview: - Dow Jones We like to see price react to our buy zones providing intraday/scalps as they are not meant to be strong as the lower zone marked :) Simple, whoever tells you short is selling you lies, you want to be on the safe side? stay bullish on US markets simple as that. Wait for dips if they happen don't chase the market :) Analysis is only 1 piece of the puzzle 🧩 Our analysis is a sentiment for the upcoming week, month. Use this as a weather forecast, you are the person that has to put on a jacket when it’s raining. Trade this sentiment based off your own entry strategy at the right time. Flow with the Devil 😈 Trade with the manipulation👾
ULong
by FlyDownX
6