US30 - Monday Starting Chart w/ circuit breakers Seems like we will have a turbulent Monday with IG trading already at -3.09% as I am writing this post. This might be a very short trading day. If nothing changes in the next 8 hours expect futures to be halted immediately after open at circuit level 1.
Scenario A: We hit circuit breaker 1 and then continue downwards breaking the lower channel line. If this happens it is very likely that we continue down further because of long liquidations and hit level 2 or even 3 and take the Monday off.
Scenario B: We get some of the "good" news we were waiting for before market open and shoot up hitting 19.8XX before crashing down again. It would be another perfect opportunity to place a better short if you went in in the middle of the channel.
People who hold longs over the weekend better make sure that your margin can support a drop up to 15.000, otherwise you might get liquidated.
Dowjonesindustrial
Dow Jones 50% Fibonacci Retracement TestDow Jones futures are currently locked limit-down as trading was halted after a -954 point drop at the open of trading. Price fell -5% to a new selloff low of $18,086. Price as now fallen nearly -40% from the all-time high in what continues to be the fastest and steepest stock market decline on record.
Price is now testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level after falling below the lower line of the broadening wedge pattern which failed to act as support and is a bearish technical breakdown. The 50% Fib level represents the halfway point between the 2009 global financial crisis low of $6,460 and the recent all-time high of $29,543 made in February of this year. Should price fail to hold above the 50% Fib level, which looks likely given that we have yet to see the worst of the coronavirus pandemics economic impact, it would indicate that the bear market has lower to go as well as half of the gains since the global financial crisis now being erased. We’ve lost in 5 weeks what took 11 years to gain.
The next level to watch for potential support should the 50% Fib level fail is the 61.8% Fib which currently rests at the same level as the 2015 lows and is another -15% lower from current price. That level also represents a -50% pullback from the all-time high(not to be confused with the 50% Fib level) and statistically, based on the -50% decline in 2000 and -57% in 2008, would be a good level to begin averaging in to stocks. The 2008 peak is indicated by the red, horizontal line and rests just below the 61.8% Fib level and should add additional price support from a technical perspective. Hard to believe that we are looking at 2008 price levels after the 11-year bull market that was the longest and greatest in history, but the bigger they are the harder they fall I suppose. While traditionally technical levels of support are good areas to do some dip-buying for short-term trades or averaging down in long-term investments, we may see those levels taken out as every support level on the way down so far has been blown through. Have to admit that I’ve never seen anything like this before with absolutely no significant bounces at what should be support levels, nor has any other trader.
The Relative Strength Indix(RSI) is below the 20 level which indicates that price momentum is in oversold territory, and is at its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. While the RSI is technicaly in oversold conditions, it can go lower and remain oversold going forward and is not an indication to start buying. It is merely an indication to pay attention and lookout for signs of a reversal ahead.
The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) is in a steep decline indicating extreme downward price momentum and is also at its lowest level since 2009 as prices were making their lows before reversing. This also is not a signal to begin buying as the PPO can still head lower.
While the momentum indicators are showing extreme oversold conditions, I have little faith in them indicating a price reversal any time soon as the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. is just getting started from a health perspective. I’m still anticipating a federal government order for all states to enter lockdowns which will increase the number of business closures as well as the number of people going unemployed thus not having disposable income to help stimulate economic activity. There are now 8 states under complete lockdown representing 1 out of 3 Americans, or 30% of the total U.S. population(101 million citizens in lockdown out of a total U.S. population of 327 million). My guess is that the national lockdown will come after the coronavirus economic relief bill is passed, which is expected to occur tomorrow. A complete lockdown of the country will only add to the number of businesses closing as well as the number of people filing for unemployment, which is estimated to hit over 2,000,000 in this week’s jobs number report.
The U.S. has a long fight ahead in not only battling the current coronavirus pandemic, but also fixing the damage already done to the economy, let alone what is still in store. Many businesses will be forced to shutter and may not survive a few weeks, or months. of no sales. Even the ones that do survive, there is no way to calculate at this point in time what the impact will be to their revenue and earnings going forward which is what is needed in order for investors to determine share value.
Today, Federal Reserve official James Bullard said that the unemployment rate my jump to 30% and GDP may fall -50% in the second quarter which are scary numbers coming from a Fed official. Those numbers are more bearish than even what major US banks such as JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are predicting which in themselves are extremely bearish numbers. The selloff we are seeing now could be just the beginning of a much larger contraction going forward and indicate that it’s not a recession that we are facing, but a depression.
DJI - ForecastFib time zones show that the next cycle starts in March 2021 and it will last for 6 years.
Dow Jones Tweezer Bottom At SupportThe Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA, average of top 30 US stocks by market capitalization) closed back above the psychological level of $20,000 today and logged a gain of roughly 1%. Price also closed above the lower broadening wedge line(shared in previous charts) for the second day in a row which indicates that this level is still acting as a technical support level for price.
A popular candlestick pattern has also appeared on this two day hold above the lower wedge line which is called a Tweezer Bottom Candlestick Pattern. A tweezer bottom involves two price candlesticks that can signal a market bottom and are reversal patterns that occur when two or more candlesticks touch the same bottom level after an extended downtrend, indicating that a reversal may soon occur. Tweezer bottoms are considered to be short-term bullish reversal patterns and indicate that sellers were not able to push price any lower. Each price candle in a tweezer bottom consists of a long lower wick which represents the low of the day, while the candle bodies are relatively small and are located near the upper end of the total daily candle range.
This candlestick pattern is forming at a price level that was already expected to act as support(lower wedge line) which could indicate that the level will hold as support in the short-term leading to a relief rally in stock prices, which given the speed and magnitude of the selloff a relief rally is due, but not guaranteed. The lower wicks of each candle in the tweezer pattern are also holding above the 2015 support level highlighted in green. This is a secondary level of support stemming from historic levels of interest stretching back to 2015, which can also be found in previous charts shared.
It would appear that a combination of technical support levels with added fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve intervention are leading to a pause in the downtrend while showing the potential for a bullish reversal back to the upside, at least in the short-term. Technical and fundamental traders views are aligning right now with a bullish bias in hopes that technical support and fundamental news will remain positive for price going forward.
If a rebound in markets is to come, we can look to overhead resistance levels in the Fibonacci retracement range for an idea of where price may bounce to. This Fibonacci range stretches from 100%(all-time high) down to the current lows(0%), and in between are levels based on the ratios found in the Fibonacci sequence. The first Fib level to watch for is the 23.6% which would represent price regaining 23.6% of the losses seen in during the recent decline and is the first level that price needs to rise above in order to add more bullish/positive bias. As long as price is currently below this 23.6% level the overall trend for price will remain down as price trading below it’s 23.6% Fib is the most bearish/negative level to be below. The most important level for price to move back above is the 50% Fib level which would represent price regaining 50% of the losses seen during the decline. Price trading above the 50% is considered bullish, while trading below the 50% is considered bearish. The ultimate level for price to beat to signal a return to an uptrend is the 61.8% fib level, which is the main ratio in the Fibonacci sequence, and also referred to as the Golden Ratio.
While the 50% and 61.8% are a long way off from price regaining, we can look for short-term movements for signals of trend reversal or downtrend continuation. For now our short-term movements that signal a possible trend reversal are the tweezer bottom candles, technical support holding at the lower broadening wedge line, as well as fundamental support coming from the Federal Reserve and U.S. government in the form of lower interest rates, bailouts for banks/corporations as well as fiscal stimulus for the American workers being affected by the coronavirus outbreak.
While these bullish signals are a good indication that we could see a bounce in the short-term, the overall outlook remains bearish since we are only in the early stages of the outbreak in the U.S. It is yet to be seen if the current intervention by the Federal Reserve and government will be enough to combat the coronavirus, which is still spreading at an exponential rate within the U.S. Bearish fundamentals are also abound as the US State Department issued a ‘Level 4 Do Not Travel’ advisory for U.S. citizens today. They are advising that all U.S. citizens avoid all international travel due to the coronavirus, and are stating that those currently outside of the U.S. should return immediately unless they are prepared to remain outside of the U.S. for a prolonged period of time. This is likely an indication that the U.S. is about to go into lockdown and halt all international and domestic travel, which would be an even larger burden on the US economic system.
Aside from the State of Emergency declaration made last Friday by President Trump, this travel advisory by the State Department is the most bearish fundamental news to come out arising from the coronavirus outbreak in regard to the U.S. economy and stock market. There has also been a report released by the U.S. government stating that the current outbreak could last 18 months, which mirrors a recent report by scientists at the Imperial College London with both entities stating that we could see waves of outbreaks meaning that even if we manage to successfully slow this virus via quarantines it will likely continue to keep coming back until a vaccine is found. I view these statements as bearish enough to negate any short-term bounces in markets as the overall outbreak appears to be a long-term event rather than short-term event. Markets have priced in a short-term pandemic in this -40% drop from all-time highs with hopes that the government will have it contained and gone by summer. If it becomes apparent that they do not have the situation under control, traders will begin to price in the 18-month prediction by health and government officials meaning we will most certainly see further declines in markets and not enter just a recession, but a depression. Companies can weather a 2-3 slowdown/shutdown in business with the current bailout packages coming, but 18 months of being shutdown means more layoffs and more company doors that will likely never reopen again. If 18 months is the real number we are looking at, we shouldn’t be worried about a recession, but rather a depression.
The short-term view on markets remains neutral, with the potential for a bounce in markets due to technical support being reached and fundamental news via bailouts. Intermediate to long-term view remains bearish due to the fact that this outbreak is still in early stages and still spreading at an exponential rate.
18 months of potential quarantines and businesses not being open with more likely to close. Keep that in mind before you hit that buy button on your trading screen.
Broadening Wedge Support TestThe Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) closed at $19,989, down -6.3% today and fell below the $20,000 level for the first time since 2016 meaning that stocks have now given back all of the gains made in the past 4 years. The market is now down -32% from the all-time high of $29,568 made on February 12th meaning that it has taken a little over a month to wipe out four years of gains. This is a massive move and the steepest, fastest decline in market history.
Traders sold price down below the lower line of the broadening wedge, but ended up closing price above the wedge line indicating that this lower line is acting as a technical price support level as expected in previous charts highlighting this wedge pattern. The lower wick of the candle today shows that traders also sold price below $19,000 during the trading day, but ultimately enough buyers stepped in to keep price above the lower wedge line, indicated by today’s candle body being above the wedge line. There is also added support at the lower red line which stems from an historic level of interest by traders back in 2015 which was pointed out in the previous price chart shared.
The hold above these technical levels comes as the US government announced a $1.2 trillion stimulus package which includes company bailouts as well as financial support to US citizens via a $1,000 check in April and a $1,000 check in May. In my previous chart, I expected both a test of the lower wedge line and bounce due to technical traders buying this level, as well as fundamental traders buying stimulus news.
Now that we have witnessed both the technical levels being reached and the fundamental stimulus news, I’m expecting more selling as the stimulus package appears to be too small, and arriving too late, in the face of an outbreak that is still growing exponentially. Until more extreme measures are taken to control the outbreak, thus limiting the long-term affect to the economy, traders will remain fearful due to the ongoing hit to company revenue and earnings as case counts rise. The current stimulus package is enough to float markets for two months, but nothing is being done from a health perspective in order to ensure that the virus is slowed, let alone stopped, within two months. We may see a bounce tomorrow and Friday as this technical level and stimulus provide some short-term hope to traders, but the bounce will likely not last as the underlying issue is not being dealt with in a forceful enough manner. As case counts continue to rise, so will traders fear of the governments ability to contain the outbreak with just money. As I mentioned before, if the only tool the government has to fight a crisis is money, then every problem has to look like a money problem. This coronavirus is most certainly not a money problem, it is a public health problem that needs a cure or extreme containment countermeasures to combat.
The most important level to watch this week is the lower wedge line as a close below this level would be bearish/negative from a technical point of view and indicate that it is no longer a support level. Traders may also flip back to being fearful that the government’s stimulus is not enough to prevent further hits to the economy.
Overall view remains neutral with the expectation of a short-term bounce due to technical support levels being reached and fundamental support via massive Federal Reserve and government bailouts. View will switch back to bearish if lower support levels are breached which is expected as US coronavirus case counts rise.
Dow Jones IND. 10 years channelWe are looking at DJI 10years channel, and the price is currently sitting on the bottom of it.
We can expect a short term price increase, but later the most probable situation will be the re-test of 2015 all time high support.
DOW sparks will flyCatalysts for bull runs have been seen including symmetrical triangles, and three clear bullish divergences. A broadening wedge within a broadening wedge is present, these 52% of the time (according to bulkowski's chart patterns) result in a breakout downwards. Most often this chart pattern is found in bull markets. A clear cut case is the DOW. Going off purely TA a breakdown is likely from these high levels back towards the mean of the wedge , possibly even forming a symmetrical triangle or a falling wedge within the wedge to hold it. Monthly chart. If you are looking to buy, entering is fine as long as you are prepared for downsides and want to go long, as you can see the chart is clearly bullish .
Dow Jones March 2020 $DJI. Touches Trend Line for 3rd time. After a week of strong selling the Dow Jones has touched the 12 year trend line for the 3rd time. Had not had a touch for 4 years. In this Channel is a good sign. At some point I would expect a third touch of the upper trend line. No need to panic sell everything in my opinion. Just think, a vaccine is being created for Covid19, do you really think that billionaires aren't buying at these levels.
S&P and world markets signs of a short term bottomThe world is going crazy, countries in lockdown, flights being stopped, but at least we have people buying toilet paper from retailers to give this quarter a boost in profit numbers hey?
But really this is a short term bottom, Looking at the chart here it is very hard to see further falls right now. The candle has over extended the LinReg and the Stochastic RSI has turned around, while the bottom finder has pointed out a possible bottom. I am looking for a 25% recovery to give us time to exit our stocks and crypto etc. Selling now is not a good time.
Than in May and June is when we will see the real crisis. From it's peak I am looking for at least a 50% - 60% correction
So I am long for about 4-6 weeks here. taking it day by day.
DJI, The FALL of the GIANT.We need to wait to the last candle, if the last candles finish under our supply, we will wait the retest because we need the retest in this broken structure to conitnue with the fall, so be focused in this value because it could give us an entry there.
Dow Jones Trading Plan going into next Week Trading WeekDow Jones showed some signs of strength in the last couple of hours of trading on Friday afternoon. Will look for buys above the blue level going into next weeks trading session. After selling off after Fed Cut Rates I expect to see some recovery next week after positive NFP release on Friday. Would like to see Gold come down to correct as well which should help push the Dow back to some upside relief.
Higher low on dow? With long legged Doji reversal?The dow has put in a higher low on the hourly chart. Combined with the long legged doji reversal pattern and MACDH uptick it looks like an OK long to take, considering the bullishness of the daily charts. We had a big gap down today so I would expect a gap fill tomorrow.
Decent trade with a stop just below the Doji, nice profit potential to test up to the resistance.
Dow Jones: The importance of the 1W MA200. Bull Cycle intact.This is a long term approach on DJI after the price hit the Higher Low trend line of the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 44.081, MACD = 142.400, ADX = 38.014) following the worst weekly sell-off since the Subprime Crisis. The 1W RSI also just hit the 34.000 level which is a Support since 2016 and last time it visited that level was on the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up in December 2018 (bottom of the U.S. - China trade war tensions).
On such a long term analysis, we want to emphasize the importance of a key marker that is behind this +10year Bull Cycle and how it is keeping the bullish sentiment on stocks alive.
That is the MA200 on the 1W chart. During the 2008 mortgage crisis, the 1W MA200 acted as a Resistance. It first broked convincingly in October 2010 and was immediately tested (and successfully held) as a Support. That was unofficially the start of the new Bull Cycle on Dow Jones, as since then the 1W MA200 has held as a Support on four occasions after sharp market sell-offs (Aug 2015 China's slowdown, Feb 2016 Oil decline, Dec 2018 trade war etc), keeping the multi year uptrend alive.
Last week the index came close again to the 1W MA200, which successfully held. As long as 1W candles close above this trend line, the multi year Bull Cycle will continue and every pull back is a long term buy opportunity. In fact based on the current 1W Channel Up, Dow's next Higher High target is 32,000.
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Dow Jones | Retracement in Ascending ChannelPlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.
We can initiate a Long position, because price reformed the Ascending Channel so that we have a retracement. Also we have Gaps to fill
But if we lose current support trendline the decline can continue.
Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advice.
Vista cierre semanal indices americanosVista cierre semanal de los indices DOW S&P Nasdaq y RUT. Corrección más del 10%
DOW JONESDow Jones is the oldest index in the world.
This index always shows what is happening with the US economy - the largest economy in the world.
Soon can be a new crisis and the question why this is happening? people will have many answers
But I'm not talking about that
Each crisis created new technologies and new companies, and the people who created or invested or participated in this are rich.
Companies created in crisis 2007-2008
Blizzard
Whatapp
Airbnb
Uber
During the dot-com crisis and the Russian crisis
Amazon
Ebay
Netflix
Google
EXON
1991
Idex
Eccenture
1980-1982
AT&T
Adobe
1973-75
Apple
Microsoft
1969-71 Starbucks
1960-61 Humana
1937-38 Macdonalds
The crisis is changes, changes in the consumption model, transition to a new stage of evolution,
in the next crisis, someone will lose their jobs, and someone will create large multi-billion dollar companies
2008-2009 and Bitcoin are very good examples of this. I’m sure that Satoshi understood the flaws of the financial system.
and created bitcoin which is devoid of these flaws.
Create whatever
Best Regards EXCAVO
And thank you Kris Kacher
DJI retesting 200MA on dailyDow is retesting the 200MA on the daily. This has been support for over a year since the last major breakage in late 2018. If we can't hold, we will see more downside.
#DOW JONES FALLS DRAMATICALLYOn the chart you can see the fibonacci channel obtained by combining two bottoms (pointed as 1 and 2 on the chart) and the peak between these two bottoms (pointed as 3). This channel should had been drawn and had been started to be followed just after 16th August,2019.
According to the interpretation of this fibonacci channel, it can be expected that dow jones will probably test the next channel line which is the bottom line of the red area in the fibonacci channel. This shows us approximately 27650. If it slides below this level, it can continue to fall toward 27110.
Something must be remembered: These dramatic falls in the indexes worldwide is mainly because of the news about Coronavirus (Covit-19). If the news about treatment comes into the scene, prices can rapidly rise again at least in order to fill up the gap shown on the chart.
The Final Phase Of The Bull Market Begins (Fractal Update)My previous posts on this subject were much longer, but I'll keep this short and sweet. You can check out my other posts (linked below) for more in-depth analysis and my overall perspective.
I actually DID NOT want to see the stock market continue up here. It's just further confirmation that we're still following this fractal from 1929. I drew the yellow speculative line a while ago, showing that if we continue up from here, we can indeed reach as high as 40-50,000, even by Fall 2020, when we could also hit the long term channel resistance (red). It's interesting that this may easily coincide with the U.S. Presidential election.
This, I believe, is a seller's rally. I expect the DJI to eventually AT LEAST test the long term trendline (purple) and the 200 Month Moving Average (light blue). A catastrophic financial collapse could result in the loss of the long term trendline and a decline just as severe as the Great Depression. The technical setup is there for this to happen, but the question is: What are the underlying similarities and the warning signs that have led to such similar market behavior? Feel free to discuss.
Here's a closer view and comparison. You can see certain features marked for structural comparison:
Anyway, this is not financial advice. As always, my posts are speculative and based purely upon my own opinions and observations.
-Victor Cobra
US30 sell Target met.Market opened with fundamental corona virus risk on to the downside.
took a 1 contract sell with 1:6.2 Risk reward
Position faked out sellers, however it reached a liquidity zone on the 1 hour and pushed back up.
Position closed with target met.
Awaiting next move
A wave ending?I count five waves, although they aren't the most symmetrical.
I can't get a handle on in the pink zone but whatever. Impulsive selling has been taking place. Wouldn't be surprised to see hopeful things in the news and then the virus spreading somewhere else majorly to start taking markets down more... I might wait for that golden (0.65-0.618fib) pocket, and then long the vix with TVIX or something similar.
Let me know if you all have any opinions. Would love to talk about it.
