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Dowjonesindustrial

Dow Jones - Waiting to bottomThe Dow Jones has already fallen over 10,000 points as investors derisk and "buy cash" due to the ensuing economic shutdown. The Coronavirus has begun to ripple through the United States. Medical supply shortages and overfilled hospitals are just the beginning especially as we wait for the U.S. government to take action. I am short until the U.S. has seen the worst of coronavirus and until the Dow can maintain the 15k area. However, Once the Dow can find a new bottom I am in for the long of a lifetime.
TVC:DJILong
by DeAngeloLT
3
Dow Jones Best Day Since 1933The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw the best percent gain today since 1933 and its largest 1-day point gain ever, up $2,113 today with a close of $20,704 from an opening price of $19,722. This move comes after price held support yesterday at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the total Fibonacci range from the 2009 low and the recent all-time high, which was pointed out in the previous chart shared. With today’s record bounce, price has risen back inside of the broadening wedge pattern, but hit resistance right at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. In order to regain a positive trend on the weekly timeframe, price needs to rise above the 38.2% Fib so we need to see continuation tomorrow with a further rise in price before becoming too optimistic about today’s rally. Today’s bounce can be attributed to technical support levels holding which are the 50% Fib as well as the 2015 price level(red) which was a previous resistance level. In technical analysis, previous resistance tends to become support when/if it is tested again. These two levels were likely being watched by many technical traders as areas to begin buying in anticipation of a bounce. Today’s move was also news-based as news that a coronavirus economic relief package is close to being passed, as well as President Trumps remarks in regard to him anticipating a reopening of the U.S. economy by Easter, or one month from now. Considering that Republicans and Democrats continue to debate measures within the bill and have so far failed to come to an agreement, hopes that a deal will be reached and the bill will be passed this week are still speculation. As for Trump’s remarks that the economy will reopen next month, that also seems unlikely seeing as how U.S. case counts are still rising and more U.S. states are entering complete lockdowns. New York is the hotspot of outbreaks in the U.S. and a sign of what’s to come for other states, and New York’s governor today stated that they will not reach a peak in cases for another 2-3 weeks meaning we are still over a month away from seeing a total peak in the U.S. President Trump still appears to be more concerned about the stock market and economy than the health of the public since he has an election coming up in November and has touted the stock market as his main measure of success as president. While today’s bounce in the stock market was a much needed relief rally after the worst decline for stocks in U.S. history, bear market rallies are more extreme than those seen in actual bull markets, meaning that this jump today was more than likely a counter-trend rally in what is still an overall bear market. If a relief package isn’t passed by Thursday, I’m anticipating a return to selling based on the fact that job numbers are due to be released on Thursday and they are forecast to show the worst monthly unemployment numbers in U.S. history with an estimated 2,000,000 people filing for unemployment due to business closures resulting from the coronavirus and states going into lockdown. This is certainly to have a negative impact on investors’ view of the health of the economy right now as well as place doubt on President Trump’s expectation that we will return to business as usual next month. Trump likely knows just how bad the job numbers are supposed to be seeing as how his administration has asked states not to report unemployment numbers head of the official Thursday report. At this point, even if the coronavirus economic relief package is passed by Thursday it is likely going to be overshadowed by the grim outlook on economic activity based on unemployment numbers as well as the fact that more states are going into lockdown, which will only increase the numbers of those filing for unemployment. The overall impact of the coronavirus on the U.S. economy is still a guessing game, and right now all hope is being placed on a relief package, of which the amount may be too small to have a significant impact by the time all is said and done. We also still need to see the impact to company revenue and earnings before we will have a better picture as to how hard they have been impacted by the coronavirus. The overall trend in the stock market remains bearish, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see bounces here and there as traders attempt to pick the bottom. Going forward we need to see price hold above the low made yesterday on any pullback in order for a positive trend to form. A breakdown below yesterdays low would be an indication that more losses are likely and that today’s bounce was just a reactionary bounce due to significant technical levels being reached and hopes that an economic relief package will be passed. My personal opinion is that we need to see a peak in coronavirus cases and a clearer picture as to the extent of the damage done to companies before a bottom can be made. My guess is that it will be another 2-3 months at the earliest before an actual bottom is made.
TVC:DJIShort
by PrepForProfit
Dow Jones Holds 50% Fibonacci RetracementThe Dow Jones continues to hold above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level which is the midpoint between the 2009 global financial crisis low and the all-time high made in February of this year. Stocks saw early gains today as the Federal Reserve announced unlimited Quantitative Easing to prop up banks and the financial system, but then prices retreated as US leaders failed to pass the coronavirus economic relief bill and pushed the next vote back to Friday. Traders will be hard-pressed to defend the 50% retracement level with 4 more days of waiting until the next vote, which in the meantime we will likely see a further deterioration of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. with a rising case count, more deaths and even more states going into lockdown putting further stress on the U.S. economy, businesses and an inevitable continued rise in unemployment. The next round of unemployment numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is due out on Friday, and the projected number is 2,000,000 layoffs which will be the worst monthly number ever recorded. A number this high is most certainly to spook traders ahead of Friday’s vote on the economic relief bill, which cold give our politicians the motivation that they need to pass the bill. Short-term view remains bearish.
TVC:DJIShort
by PrepForProfit
US30 - Monday Starting Chart w/ circuit breakers Seems like we will have a turbulent Monday with IG trading already at -3.09% as I am writing this post. This might be a very short trading day. If nothing changes in the next 8 hours expect futures to be halted immediately after open at circuit level 1. Scenario A: We hit circuit breaker 1 and then continue downwards breaking the lower channel line. If this happens it is very likely that we continue down further because of long liquidations and hit level 2 or even 3 and take the Monday off. Scenario B: We get some of the "good" news we were waiting for before market open and shoot up hitting 19.8XX before crashing down again. It would be another perfect opportunity to place a better short if you went in in the middle of the channel. People who hold longs over the weekend better make sure that your margin can support a drop up to 15.000, otherwise you might get liquidated.
U
by absente
Dow Jones 50% Fibonacci Retracement TestDow Jones futures are currently locked limit-down as trading was halted after a -954 point drop at the open of trading. Price fell -5% to a new selloff low of $18,086. Price as now fallen nearly -40% from the all-time high in what continues to be the fastest and steepest stock market decline on record. Price is now testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level after falling below the lower line of the broadening wedge pattern which failed to act as support and is a bearish technical breakdown. The 50% Fib level represents the halfway point between the 2009 global financial crisis low of $6,460 and the recent all-time high of $29,543 made in February of this year. Should price fail to hold above the 50% Fib level, which looks likely given that we have yet to see the worst of the coronavirus pandemics economic impact, it would indicate that the bear market has lower to go as well as half of the gains since the global financial crisis now being erased. We’ve lost in 5 weeks what took 11 years to gain. The next level to watch for potential support should the 50% Fib level fail is the 61.8% Fib which currently rests at the same level as the 2015 lows and is another -15% lower from current price. That level also represents a -50% pullback from the all-time high(not to be confused with the 50% Fib level) and statistically, based on the -50% decline in 2000 and -57% in 2008, would be a good level to begin averaging in to stocks. The 2008 peak is indicated by the red, horizontal line and rests just below the 61.8% Fib level and should add additional price support from a technical perspective. Hard to believe that we are looking at 2008 price levels after the 11-year bull market that was the longest and greatest in history, but the bigger they are the harder they fall I suppose. While traditionally technical levels of support are good areas to do some dip-buying for short-term trades or averaging down in long-term investments, we may see those levels taken out as every support level on the way down so far has been blown through. Have to admit that I’ve never seen anything like this before with absolutely no significant bounces at what should be support levels, nor has any other trader. The Relative Strength Indix(RSI) is below the 20 level which indicates that price momentum is in oversold territory, and is at its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. While the RSI is technicaly in oversold conditions, it can go lower and remain oversold going forward and is not an indication to start buying. It is merely an indication to pay attention and lookout for signs of a reversal ahead. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) is in a steep decline indicating extreme downward price momentum and is also at its lowest level since 2009 as prices were making their lows before reversing. This also is not a signal to begin buying as the PPO can still head lower. While the momentum indicators are showing extreme oversold conditions, I have little faith in them indicating a price reversal any time soon as the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. is just getting started from a health perspective. I’m still anticipating a federal government order for all states to enter lockdowns which will increase the number of business closures as well as the number of people going unemployed thus not having disposable income to help stimulate economic activity. There are now 8 states under complete lockdown representing 1 out of 3 Americans, or 30% of the total U.S. population(101 million citizens in lockdown out of a total U.S. population of 327 million). My guess is that the national lockdown will come after the coronavirus economic relief bill is passed, which is expected to occur tomorrow. A complete lockdown of the country will only add to the number of businesses closing as well as the number of people filing for unemployment, which is estimated to hit over 2,000,000 in this week’s jobs number report. The U.S. has a long fight ahead in not only battling the current coronavirus pandemic, but also fixing the damage already done to the economy, let alone what is still in store. Many businesses will be forced to shutter and may not survive a few weeks, or months. of no sales. Even the ones that do survive, there is no way to calculate at this point in time what the impact will be to their revenue and earnings going forward which is what is needed in order for investors to determine share value. Today, Federal Reserve official James Bullard said that the unemployment rate my jump to 30% and GDP may fall -50% in the second quarter which are scary numbers coming from a Fed official. Those numbers are more bearish than even what major US banks such as JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are predicting which in themselves are extremely bearish numbers. The selloff we are seeing now could be just the beginning of a much larger contraction going forward and indicate that it’s not a recession that we are facing, but a depression.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by PrepForProfit
4
Dow Jones Tweezer Bottom At SupportThe Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA, average of top 30 US stocks by market capitalization) closed back above the psychological level of $20,000 today and logged a gain of roughly 1%. Price also closed above the lower broadening wedge line(shared in previous charts) for the second day in a row which indicates that this level is still acting as a technical support level for price. A popular candlestick pattern has also appeared on this two day hold above the lower wedge line which is called a Tweezer Bottom Candlestick Pattern. A tweezer bottom involves two price candlesticks that can signal a market bottom and are reversal patterns that occur when two or more candlesticks touch the same bottom level after an extended downtrend, indicating that a reversal may soon occur. Tweezer bottoms are considered to be short-term bullish reversal patterns and indicate that sellers were not able to push price any lower. Each price candle in a tweezer bottom consists of a long lower wick which represents the low of the day, while the candle bodies are relatively small and are located near the upper end of the total daily candle range. This candlestick pattern is forming at a price level that was already expected to act as support(lower wedge line) which could indicate that the level will hold as support in the short-term leading to a relief rally in stock prices, which given the speed and magnitude of the selloff a relief rally is due, but not guaranteed. The lower wicks of each candle in the tweezer pattern are also holding above the 2015 support level highlighted in green. This is a secondary level of support stemming from historic levels of interest stretching back to 2015, which can also be found in previous charts shared. It would appear that a combination of technical support levels with added fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve intervention are leading to a pause in the downtrend while showing the potential for a bullish reversal back to the upside, at least in the short-term. Technical and fundamental traders views are aligning right now with a bullish bias in hopes that technical support and fundamental news will remain positive for price going forward. If a rebound in markets is to come, we can look to overhead resistance levels in the Fibonacci retracement range for an idea of where price may bounce to. This Fibonacci range stretches from 100%(all-time high) down to the current lows(0%), and in between are levels based on the ratios found in the Fibonacci sequence. The first Fib level to watch for is the 23.6% which would represent price regaining 23.6% of the losses seen in during the recent decline and is the first level that price needs to rise above in order to add more bullish/positive bias. As long as price is currently below this 23.6% level the overall trend for price will remain down as price trading below it’s 23.6% Fib is the most bearish/negative level to be below. The most important level for price to move back above is the 50% Fib level which would represent price regaining 50% of the losses seen during the decline. Price trading above the 50% is considered bullish, while trading below the 50% is considered bearish. The ultimate level for price to beat to signal a return to an uptrend is the 61.8% fib level, which is the main ratio in the Fibonacci sequence, and also referred to as the Golden Ratio. While the 50% and 61.8% are a long way off from price regaining, we can look for short-term movements for signals of trend reversal or downtrend continuation. For now our short-term movements that signal a possible trend reversal are the tweezer bottom candles, technical support holding at the lower broadening wedge line, as well as fundamental support coming from the Federal Reserve and U.S. government in the form of lower interest rates, bailouts for banks/corporations as well as fiscal stimulus for the American workers being affected by the coronavirus outbreak. While these bullish signals are a good indication that we could see a bounce in the short-term, the overall outlook remains bearish since we are only in the early stages of the outbreak in the U.S. It is yet to be seen if the current intervention by the Federal Reserve and government will be enough to combat the coronavirus, which is still spreading at an exponential rate within the U.S. Bearish fundamentals are also abound as the US State Department issued a ‘Level 4 Do Not Travel’ advisory for U.S. citizens today. They are advising that all U.S. citizens avoid all international travel due to the coronavirus, and are stating that those currently outside of the U.S. should return immediately unless they are prepared to remain outside of the U.S. for a prolonged period of time. This is likely an indication that the U.S. is about to go into lockdown and halt all international and domestic travel, which would be an even larger burden on the US economic system. Aside from the State of Emergency declaration made last Friday by President Trump, this travel advisory by the State Department is the most bearish fundamental news to come out arising from the coronavirus outbreak in regard to the U.S. economy and stock market. There has also been a report released by the U.S. government stating that the current outbreak could last 18 months, which mirrors a recent report by scientists at the Imperial College London with both entities stating that we could see waves of outbreaks meaning that even if we manage to successfully slow this virus via quarantines it will likely continue to keep coming back until a vaccine is found. I view these statements as bearish enough to negate any short-term bounces in markets as the overall outbreak appears to be a long-term event rather than short-term event. Markets have priced in a short-term pandemic in this -40% drop from all-time highs with hopes that the government will have it contained and gone by summer. If it becomes apparent that they do not have the situation under control, traders will begin to price in the 18-month prediction by health and government officials meaning we will most certainly see further declines in markets and not enter just a recession, but a depression. Companies can weather a 2-3 slowdown/shutdown in business with the current bailout packages coming, but 18 months of being shutdown means more layoffs and more company doors that will likely never reopen again. If 18 months is the real number we are looking at, we shouldn’t be worried about a recession, but rather a depression. The short-term view on markets remains neutral, with the potential for a bounce in markets due to technical support being reached and fundamental news via bailouts. Intermediate to long-term view remains bearish due to the fact that this outbreak is still in early stages and still spreading at an exponential rate. 18 months of potential quarantines and businesses not being open with more likely to close. Keep that in mind before you hit that buy button on your trading screen.
TVC:DJI
by PrepForProfit
Broadening Wedge Support TestThe Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) closed at $19,989, down -6.3% today and fell below the $20,000 level for the first time since 2016 meaning that stocks have now given back all of the gains made in the past 4 years. The market is now down -32% from the all-time high of $29,568 made on February 12th meaning that it has taken a little over a month to wipe out four years of gains. This is a massive move and the steepest, fastest decline in market history. Traders sold price down below the lower line of the broadening wedge, but ended up closing price above the wedge line indicating that this lower line is acting as a technical price support level as expected in previous charts highlighting this wedge pattern. The lower wick of the candle today shows that traders also sold price below $19,000 during the trading day, but ultimately enough buyers stepped in to keep price above the lower wedge line, indicated by today’s candle body being above the wedge line. There is also added support at the lower red line which stems from an historic level of interest by traders back in 2015 which was pointed out in the previous price chart shared. The hold above these technical levels comes as the US government announced a $1.2 trillion stimulus package which includes company bailouts as well as financial support to US citizens via a $1,000 check in April and a $1,000 check in May. In my previous chart, I expected both a test of the lower wedge line and bounce due to technical traders buying this level, as well as fundamental traders buying stimulus news. Now that we have witnessed both the technical levels being reached and the fundamental stimulus news, I’m expecting more selling as the stimulus package appears to be too small, and arriving too late, in the face of an outbreak that is still growing exponentially. Until more extreme measures are taken to control the outbreak, thus limiting the long-term affect to the economy, traders will remain fearful due to the ongoing hit to company revenue and earnings as case counts rise. The current stimulus package is enough to float markets for two months, but nothing is being done from a health perspective in order to ensure that the virus is slowed, let alone stopped, within two months. We may see a bounce tomorrow and Friday as this technical level and stimulus provide some short-term hope to traders, but the bounce will likely not last as the underlying issue is not being dealt with in a forceful enough manner. As case counts continue to rise, so will traders fear of the governments ability to contain the outbreak with just money. As I mentioned before, if the only tool the government has to fight a crisis is money, then every problem has to look like a money problem. This coronavirus is most certainly not a money problem, it is a public health problem that needs a cure or extreme containment countermeasures to combat. The most important level to watch this week is the lower wedge line as a close below this level would be bearish/negative from a technical point of view and indicate that it is no longer a support level. Traders may also flip back to being fearful that the government’s stimulus is not enough to prevent further hits to the economy. Overall view remains neutral with the expectation of a short-term bounce due to technical support levels being reached and fundamental support via massive Federal Reserve and government bailouts. View will switch back to bearish if lower support levels are breached which is expected as US coronavirus case counts rise.
TVC:DJI
by PrepForProfit
DOW sparks will flyCatalysts for bull runs have been seen including symmetrical triangles, and three clear bullish divergences. A broadening wedge within a broadening wedge is present, these 52% of the time (according to bulkowski's chart patterns) result in a breakout downwards. Most often this chart pattern is found in bull markets. A clear cut case is the DOW. Going off purely TA a breakdown is likely from these high levels back towards the mean of the wedge , possibly even forming a symmetrical triangle or a falling wedge within the wedge to hold it. Monthly chart. If you are looking to buy, entering is fine as long as you are prepared for downsides and want to go long, as you can see the chart is clearly bullish .
TVC:DJI
by Bixley
S&P and world markets signs of a short term bottomThe world is going crazy, countries in lockdown, flights being stopped, but at least we have people buying toilet paper from retailers to give this quarter a boost in profit numbers hey? But really this is a short term bottom, Looking at the chart here it is very hard to see further falls right now. The candle has over extended the LinReg and the Stochastic RSI has turned around, while the bottom finder has pointed out a possible bottom. I am looking for a 25% recovery to give us time to exit our stocks and crypto etc. Selling now is not a good time. Than in May and June is when we will see the real crisis. From it's peak I am looking for at least a 50% - 60% correction So I am long for about 4-6 weeks here. taking it day by day.
ULong
by GlobalTrader_
3
Dow Jones: The importance of the 1W MA200. Bull Cycle intact.This is a long term approach on DJI after the price hit the Higher Low trend line of the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 44.081, MACD = 142.400, ADX = 38.014) following the worst weekly sell-off since the Subprime Crisis. The 1W RSI also just hit the 34.000 level which is a Support since 2016 and last time it visited that level was on the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up in December 2018 (bottom of the U.S. - China trade war tensions). On such a long term analysis, we want to emphasize the importance of a key marker that is behind this +10year Bull Cycle and how it is keeping the bullish sentiment on stocks alive. That is the MA200 on the 1W chart. During the 2008 mortgage crisis, the 1W MA200 acted as a Resistance. It first broked convincingly in October 2010 and was immediately tested (and successfully held) as a Support. That was unofficially the start of the new Bull Cycle on Dow Jones, as since then the 1W MA200 has held as a Support on four occasions after sharp market sell-offs (Aug 2015 China's slowdown, Feb 2016 Oil decline, Dec 2018 trade war etc), keeping the multi year uptrend alive. Last week the index came close again to the 1W MA200, which successfully held. As long as 1W candles close above this trend line, the multi year Bull Cycle will continue and every pull back is a long term buy opportunity. In fact based on the current 1W Channel Up, Dow's next Higher High target is 32,000. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
TVC:DJILong
by InvestingScope
4
Dow Jones | Retracement in Ascending ChannelPlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. We can initiate a Long position, because price reformed the Ascending Channel so that we have a retracement. Also we have Gaps to fill But if we lose current support trendline the decline can continue. Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable. Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts. The information given is not a Financial Advice.
TVC:DJILong
by Anpu
13
DOW JONESDow Jones is the oldest index in the world. This index always shows what is happening with the US economy - the largest economy in the world. Soon can be a new crisis and the question why this is happening? people will have many answers But I'm not talking about that Each crisis created new technologies and new companies, and the people who created or invested or participated in this are rich. Companies created in crisis 2007-2008 Blizzard Whatapp Airbnb Uber During the dot-com crisis and the Russian crisis Amazon Ebay Netflix Google EXON 1991 Idex Eccenture 1980-1982 AT&T Adobe 1973-75 Apple Microsoft 1969-71 Starbucks 1960-61 Humana 1937-38 Macdonalds The crisis is changes, changes in the consumption model, transition to a new stage of evolution, in the next crisis, someone will lose their jobs, and someone will create large multi-billion dollar companies 2008-2009 and Bitcoin are very good examples of this. I’m sure that Satoshi understood the flaws of the financial system. and created bitcoin which is devoid of these flaws. Create whatever Best Regards EXCAVO And thank you Kris Kacher
TVC:DJIEducation
by EXCAVO
39