The Fake Trump Economy 2019/20, SPX,DOW short scenario.We have a nice opportunity to sell SPX and DOW in the next Months. WHY?
FED will let rates at the current position, because NFPs are well good, semms so... :D
Gold still rising, Oil is wage.
Problems with trade negotiations with Europe and China, here don't forget the Brexit, its still there.
Overbought indicators on SPX and DOW.
Tripple Top formation with possible huge breakout like 2000 or 2008.
Ans so on...
What speaks for a coming crash?
-Overbought formation since the year 2000.
-State dept of the US is enormous, even here the US is still in a recession.
-Even China own the whole US in Bonds, think of that. :D
-Word economy is still damaged at this point, even if we get an trade deal.
And, what Donald did the most in his being? He failed, even if it fits on economy.
Stay prepared for the next big short.
Dowjonesindustrial
DJIA HIGH P/E READY TO FALL OUT OF BROADENING TOP - SHORT ITThe Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is selling for a P/E of 19.3. This is quite high historically. Everyone is buying the hype of lower interest rates boosting stocks. Well, in 2000 and 2007 rates were falling with a falling stock market. Cutting rates is a sign somethings wrong. Anyway, the first rate cut scenario is factored in by now, I don't expect a boom after the cut. Rather it is a situation of buy the rumour, sell the fact. Look at Coke KO, a Dow Industrial. It's earnings and sales have gone nowhere and down over the last 5 years, yet, it's selling for an outrageous P/E of 36. The DJIA and S&P500 are hitting all time highs, a real danger in my opinion. I can see a correction coming, how severe I'm not sure. But, for those adventurous you could short sell the DJIA and S&P500 or SPY. I think a 10% fall is going to happen, possibly more. This will probably happen in sync with the decline in bitcoin and ether. Many assets are overvalued now, cutting rates to prop it all up is not going to work.
The RSI, ROC and stochastic are all measuring overbought. A sign of the decline to come.
US30 Dow Jones Re-testPossible retest to 27,000 ish area . Fib retrace to possible 50% or 61.8; retest of trendline. Descending channel
This is for demonstration and educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. This pair is very very volalite. Join my team and engage with a community of traders, get 24/7 support, and an educational platform to teach you how to trade. Inbox me for more information. Also please feel free to like and comment. Also see my links below to follow me on Facebook and Instagram.
Daily DJI Dowjones index forecast analysis08-JUL
Price trend forecast timing analysis based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength.
Investing position: In Rising section of high profit & low risk
S&D strength Trend: About to begin an adjustment trend as a upward trend gradually gives way to a slowdown in rises and falling fluctuations
Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand strength has changed to a strengthening selling flow when stock market opening.
READ MORE: www.pretiming.com
D+1 Candlestick Color forecast: RED Candlestick
%D+1 Range forecast: -0.1% (HIGH) ~ -0.5% (LOW), -0.3% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of rising: 0.8% (HIGH) ~ -0.2% (LOW), 0.6% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of falling: 0.2% (HIGH) ~ -0.7% (LOW), -0.3% (CLOSE)
The DJI is Going To Make a Move SoonThe DJI has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern, a break above the neckline will signify a pretty big move to the upside. However, it also is showing a Bearish Divergence on the RSI. If we fail to breakout, I believe we could see a sharp move down. It is also interesting to see Gold breakout recently, proceed with caution.
Elliott Wave View: Dow Jones Futures (YM_F) Has Resumed HigherDow Jones Futures (YM_F) broke above June 10 high (26289) suggesting that the next leg higher has started. The Index is now showing an incomplete sequence from June 3 low (24610), favoring further upside. Short term Elliott Wave view calls the rally to 26289 on June 10 as wave 1 and pullback to 25898 as wave 2. This indicates that the entire rally from June 3 low is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave 2 unfolded as a double zigzag where wave ((w)) ended at 26050, wave ((x)) ended at 26261, and wave ((y)) of 2 ended at 25898.
Wave 3 is currently in progress and subdivides as an impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2 low at 25898, wave (i) ended at 26153 and wave (ii) ended at 26001. Expect the Index to see a few more highs to end 5 waves up from 25898 low. This 5 waves up will end wave ((i)) of 3. Index should then pullback in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from June 13 low before the rally resumes. We do not like selling the Index and expect buyers to appear as dips continue to hold above 25898 in 3, 7, or 11 swing
DOW/DJI Market Analysis - Entering Consolidation PeriodDOW/DJI graph looks like it's in consolidation.The blue lines (solid and dotted) represent areas where I expect the price to go up/down to. They are the support and resist.
The green circle represents a period of time where I think the consolidation will come to an end.
What is consolidation? It's when the market is undecided if it will go up or down.
What happens when the consolidation comes to and end? We will see a move that will "break" the blue lines and head up or down.
The way current conditions are, this consolidation period will come to and end between January 2020 and May 2021. We could then see a crash or break-out. The move up or down, when we come out of consolidation, might be slow as well.
The lowest the price will go (before the end of consolidation) is around 22000, the highest around 26500.
This is not financial advice. Remember that everything is dynamic and up to interpretation of the trader and the tools they use. I will keep updating this graph every so often as conditions change.
Elliott Wave View: Dow Jones Futures Correction to Find BuyersElliott wave view in Dow Jones Futures (YM_F) suggests that the decline to 24604 ended wave ((W)) on June 3. This decline ended the cycle from May 1 high as a 3 waves zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((X)) bounce is currently in progress to correct the cycle from May 1 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing. The internal of wave ((X)) rally is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. A zigzag is an ABC with 5-3-5 structure. Wave (A) of ((X)) is now in progress as a 5 waves impulse.
Up from 24604, wave 1 ended at 24938 and wave 2 pullback ended at 24684. Rally then resumes in wave 3 to 26085, wave 4 ended at 25974, and wave 5 ended at 26289. The 5 waves move higher ended wave (A) of higher degree. Short term, Index is in wave B pullback to correct cycle from June 3 low (24604) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before turning higher again in wave (C). We don’t like selling the Index. As the rally from June 3 low is impulsive, expect wave (B) pullback to hold above 24604 for at least 1 more push higher in wave (C).
I advise caution...Many believe that we are going to test the highs of 26,700, and that may happen based off the momentum we gathered from the recent rally, but I don't like the smaller (grey) fractal you can see inside the larger (white).
Head and Shoulders is still in play IMO.
The weekly and daily RSI's are both showing divergence.
I think 3rd quarter is going to be nasty.
Dow Jones: Lower Buy opportunity and continuation level.Having successfully hit both of our bearish targets on the MA20 1D sell signal:
, the index is trading inside a 1D Descending Head and Shoulders pattern (RSI = 30.952, MACD = -335.400, Highs/Lows = -556.4643) with clear sell/ buy pressure points. We are currently approaching the strongest buy level (24,600) which is for us an automatic long order to 25,070. If 25,200 breaks and gets re-tested successfully as a Support, it will be a long continuation signal towards 25,800.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
DOW BULL MARKET IS OVERThe dow bull market is over, the coming recession will cause the initial dip in the Dow which will correspond nicely with the upward lower bound trend and fibonacci retracement of around 22000. Then I'd expect a lower target of around the 50% retracement level of 16000 which will be at the height of the next US recession.
Elliott Wave View: DJIA Futures (YM_F) Should Extend HigherShort term Elliott Wave view on Dow Jones Future (YM_F) suggests that rally from March 9, 2019 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the chart above, we can see wave (2) ended at 25448. Now wave (3) ended at around 26507.
Up from 25448, wave 1 ended at 25823, wave 2 ended at 25744, wave 3 ended at 26289, and wave 4 ended at 26126 and wave 5 of (3) ended at 26507. Below from there it is in the wave (4) pullback before more upside afterwards should be seen. We don’t like selling the Index as the right side is to the upside against 25448 low.
Dow Jones: Sell Opportunity on 1D.The index is now testing the 1W Resistance (26,280 - 26,300). 1D has been trading on an Ascending Triangle pattern (RSI = 62.583, MACD = 150.200, Highs/Lows = 229.6786) and upon reaching this 1W Resistance zone on overbought stochastics (STOCH = 98.665, STOCHRSI = 90.823, Williams = -0.392) a sell window opportunity emerges. The SL however should be tight primarily because the index is on a long term bullish trend and secondly due to the Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow which can cause volatility spikes above this level. TP1 = 25,980, TP2 = 25,820 (essentially the 4H Support Zone).
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
ym dow jones industrial average , sell trade 1.Price did come to important resistance level.
2.Price did break major trendline
3.Price did break short term trendline
4.Price create pulback to 61.8 - 78.6% fibo retracements , 3rd wawe of eliot start
5.Price close 2 times below the pivot, 2 red large candles.
Possible targets half 38.2% and 50% fib levels .
Good luck! :-)