Dowjonesindustrial
Dow Jones Potential Flat Corrective Structure Intact:?The 4H chart view for Dow Jones might be suggesting that an A-B-C potential flat still remains intact, even after intraday highs at 25720/30 levels today (futures). Looking at the entire wave structure from Jan-Feb 2018, the indie had dropped lower 5 waves to 23,000 levels, forming an impulse. The expected corrective rally turned out to be a complex A-B-C flat as labelled here, after consolidating for several months. Please note that prices can still test up to 25800 levels, where wave A potentially terminated. If the above wave count holds true then we could see a potential bearish reversal from around 25650/750 levels. Probable direction could remain on the south side until prices stay below 26700/800 levels.
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DJI has a nice level to goDJI looking for the blue line (not a trend line). Targets very clear.
Keep in mind: Corrections remain in place until a new high is made.
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Dow Jones: WARNINGWe are at predictable resistance in DJIA. Last Thursday saw the break of a rising wedge, but Friday offered little follow-through. We are now falling moderately in early Sunday trading (at the time of writing).
I was aiming for a test of trendline resistance within the purple box. We can still test this area; either way, I'm betting on a wholesale decline in equities.
THIS IS NOT A CRASH! US equities will not crash. We are simply in a consolidation period of multiple months, possibly years, which will eventually lead to an explosive rally.
My targets are the two trendline support lines. Should we break the second, I will be able to better judge where a buyable low will form - and there WILL be a great buying opportunity. This is a multi-month trade, lasting over the Summer, and possibly beyond.
For now, I'm short, and will add on any intraday rally on Monday, and possibly Tuesday.
Only a solid daily close above the previous swing high in the 25300 area would shift me into neutral. The market is would have to rally beyond the 25800 to make me bullish.
Dow Jones Index (24200 - 24259 is a very important region)Dow Jones,
The market is definitely moving on the sentiment right now, without a proper fundamental backing. The fear of trade war.
I am expecting we might see some rebound near 24250.
In summary, we might be late to short as we have potential rebound on the card.
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s0nic
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Dow Jones 1 Hour Elliott Wave AnalysisHello Traders,
In this analysis, we will have a look at the Dow Jones 1 hour Elliott Wave chart.
Dow Jones ended cycle from 04/02 low (23311) at the peak of 06/11 peak (25417). Below from that peak, the instrument is currently correcting the cycle from 04/02 in 7 or 11 swings before the rally resumes or bounce in 3 waves at least.
Down from 06/11 peak, the decline is unfolding as Elliott Wave double correction, where sub-division of red wave W unfolded also in a double correction and ended at 06/19 (24564). Up from there, it ended red wave X pullback at the peak of 06/20 (24861).
Below from that peak, a 5 wave’s structure can be completed soon in red wave v of blue wave (a). Once the blue wave (a) is complete, the index should bounce in blue wave (b) in 3, 7 or 11 swings before the decline resumes towards the equal legs area of red W-X cycle which comes at around 24010-23810.
Dow Jones Nearing Completion of 5 Waves ImpulseDow Jones Futures Elliott Wave view suggests that the pullback to 24227 low on 5/29/18 ended in red wave 4 pullback. Above from there, the rally is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure with extension in the 3rd wave higher.
As an impulse, the internal of Minute degree wave ((i)), (( iii )) and ((v)) should also unfold as an impulse with 5 waves structure.
Up from 24227 low, black wave ((i)) ended in 5 waves structure at 24715. Down from there, the pullback to 24342 low ended black wave ((ii)).
The rally from there shows a strong reaction to the upside which ended black wave ((iii)) at around 25418 high. The subdivision of black wave ((iii)) is showing an impulse structure where blue wave (i) ended at 24863, blue wave (ii) ended at 24709 and blue wave (iii) ended at 25327. Blue wave (iv) ended at 25093 and blue wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 25418 high. Near-term cycle from 06/11/18 peak can be completed in black wave ((iv)) at 25255 low and ideally, it should now continue higher in black wave ((v)). However, as long as it stays below black wave ((iii)) peak a double correction lower in black wave ((iv)) can't be ruled out. Anyway, the right side remains to the upside.
As far as a pivot from 24337 low stays intact, we expect the Index to see another push higher in black wave ((v)) to end a 5 waves impulse structure from 5/29/18 low. We don’t like selling the index and the right side remains to the upside.
Dow jonesDow jones index on a daily chart finds itself on a resistance area. MACD pointing upwards showing potential bullish move, but we have to take into consideration average directional index which shows us the strenght of the current trend which is very low. Let's see what happens next. Have patience
Medium term uptrend on Dow JonesdowjonesThe index is on a symmetrical Channel Up on 4H (RSI = 55.713, MACD = 53.000). Given the overbought levels on both 5H & 1D (STOCH, STOCHRSI, Williams), I expect a pull back to 24,582 before reaching 24,996.70 again and 25,226.56 towards the end of the month. With a Higher High on 1D (Highs/Lows = 152.8571), I believe the long term downtrend came to an end. However, if 24,541.60 (EMA20/50) breaks, then the index will look for support at 24,035.92 (SMA200).
DJI Bearish Pattern close to breakI've told you and I hope you're still in it with a nice profit. If you want to celebrate do it with respect, because do not forget, millions of people, most of them Americans are losing their money. At the same time think about this pattern "descending triangle", which looks very nice to go for and bears will push and takes action on. Monday or Tuesday?
This trade was based on risk and remember what I said about it:
While big investors start to jump out of the train they kick off a bearish move... Why?
The answer is harder than you think, but at the same time, it has a logical decision. Since some months ago I shared with some friends about this risk, but the market just went higher over and over.
You know I like to apply maths to my trading, but at the same time history, actually economy is a social science, so as history repeats itself economy do as well.
Watch out, I'm not talking about will happen tomorrow or next week, but is something to keep in mind...
A crash could come pretty soon because factors are more than one.
1. History
2. Currency War
3. War as the worst way we know
4. Real Correction
1. History: I already said history tends to repeat itself over and over. In 1928 everyone was very enthusiastic and even taxi drivers and shoeshine boys bought stocks without any preliminary knowledge, except by some conversations with Wall Street's people. Economy was growing to massive pace, but with an overpriced market. Calvin Coolidge as pro-business President, he went for Anti-regulation and TAX CUTS. Sounds familiar?.
2. Currency War: Currently happening.
3. War as the worst way we know: War is absolutely possible if Trump makes a mistake with North Korea, I hope not, but it definitely will hit American economy and with less budget for tax cuts, less money for the government and American society.
4. Real Correction: Real correction is based on the cyclical economy in my case, I support the cyclical adjusted price-earnings ratio, which is coming higher from last 10 years.
However, I love America and I hope to be wrong.
While your broker is telling you, don't worry actually we are buying more, even me! Well, it's because they are broken if everybody takes their money out.
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IBM Pullback?In my humble opinion there was a sort of overreaction triggered by short selling yesterday upon IBM's earnings call. Numbers were not great and guidance was lowered. Nevertheless, the blue chip has created a stronger position to capture growth in the IT business related to cloud computing, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence technologies (15% yoy growth).
I predict a short-term movement upwards shortly after the consolidation period or even today. Do not miss the rally to the support/demand zone, which serves as moderate price level for the IBM stock. The average lowest price target by analysts is $152.00.
However, there is also a strong possibility of decline if bears attack again. Evaluate a stop loss that take into account a false break out scenario that may likely bust the upward breakout in direction to the support zone.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Bear Market Bounce? Descending Triangle Short TargetI think the pattern is more evident here on the Dow Jones, when compared to SPX. The next leg down (when measured from peak to baseline) has us right at "bear market" territory. From the current high (open/close) a close beneath 21293.368 puts us below the 20% threshold, and while we may dip to this area, I'm not so certain we will close a session beneath this spot (not yet, anyways). I see two possible scenarios, the 1st is if the market caves fast and we begin the next leg immediately, the 2nd includes a possible bounce within the descending triangle formation before completion of the pattern. I would like to point out, that if there is a bounce at the 22.5k area which retraces higher than 50% of the immediate fall, that would indicate a possible reversal due to the weakness of the pattern breakout. The latest I see this playing out by is mid-June, though it could happen at any time before then.
DJI Still shagging the screens?You already know the main idea on DJI so this is just a reminder to hold your position, laugh and walk away.
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Main Idea: