Dowjonesindustrial
Possible Crash Mid 2019The DJI clearly has a hard time to build support on current levels. I wouldn't initiate a long-term trade just yet. There is a possibility of breaking through and achieve new highs, but I think that's very unlikely to due to the bearish divergence on the monthly chart. I would suggest waiting for a cross of the 8 EMA through the 21 EMA on the monthly chart, since that was the key indicator for the 2008 crisis. We haven't had such a situation since. To be even more safe i would initiate 50% on the first cross and then another 50% on the bear cross of the 21 EMA crossing the 50 MA.
It's not a juicy short term gain trade, but at least something to keep in mind and to stay ahead of the masses.
MARKET COMMENTARY: WHAT CANNOT GO DOWN MUST GO UPIn my last commentary I noted that the Euro could bounce. The Dollar has just broken significant support as I write. I have short EURUSD positions remaining, but I'm strongly hedged with a DXY short.
I'm also long Gold and Silver, as a counter-trend short Dollar play.
I also noted that political confusion concerning Trump could make the US markets 'choppy' - this is not happening!
Two things are going on: Firstly, Trump is proving to be resilient, as attempts to discredit him and his supporters seem to come to nothing. Second, the rest of the world is falling apart. Investors outside of the USA are buying up blue chip stocks to hedge their own political and economic risk.
Consequently, the Dow has done nothing but rise since February. Taking out the January high would project a move to over 30,000. I see no possibility of a technical pause in the long-term trend, unless the February low is taken out - this seems impossible at this point. As it stands, the current pattern is nothing but bullish.
I'm long DJIA and S&P500.
Dow Jones ElliottWave Analysis: Inflection Area Called The RallyHello Traders,
Dow Jones Elliott wave view suggests that the cycle from 08/15/18 (24946) low ended at the peak of 08/29/18 (26186) in red wave 3.
Below from there, it ended the pullback in red wave 4 at 09/11/18 low (25767) and already broke to new highs confirming that the next extension higher has started.
The internals of the red wave 4 pullback unfolded as an Elliott Wave double correction which ended black wave ((w)) at 09/11/18 low (25817), black wave ((x)) pullback at 09/11/18 (26102) and finally black wave ((y)) of red wave 4 at 09/11/18 low (25767).
After breaking red wave 3 peak confirming that the next extension higher has started, it ended the short-term cycle from 09/11/18 low (25767) at the peak of 09/14/18 (26262) in black wave ((i)). Below from there it reached our equal legs extreme (blue box) towards $26061-25963 area, which was the 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of blue wave (a)-(b) where it ended black wave ((ii)) pullback and also where we like to stay long with a risk free position targeting higher targets.
As long as pullbacks stay above 25767 low we expect the index to see more upside. We don’t like the selling.
DIA speculation over the next 10 daysPeak on 9/07 then a dip starting the following monday?
What do you think??
My view on mid-term price action of the DJIAs you may expect, there is always a bullish or a bearish scenario to bet on.
Upside breakout is needed to encourage the bulls to push price higher. However, resistance is evident. 10-year treasury bond is above 3%. There is no new hype around that may inspire positive sentiment, only Trump, tariffs and trade war.
On rule of thumb it is more probable that stocks rise rather than decline. Nevertheless, "being a bear" is always a more risky way of trading.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Short on DJIPullback is here.
A lot of positive news published over the last week pushing stocks up. Time to save profits by the big money and for us to go short.
Broadening Top Inside a Broadening Top? That Can't Be Good...The Dow just made a smaller version of the pattern it was already in to complete the formation. I found it interesting, so here it is:
Dow Jones Potential Flat Corrective Structure Intact:?The 4H chart view for Dow Jones might be suggesting that an A-B-C potential flat still remains intact, even after intraday highs at 25720/30 levels today (futures). Looking at the entire wave structure from Jan-Feb 2018, the indie had dropped lower 5 waves to 23,000 levels, forming an impulse. The expected corrective rally turned out to be a complex A-B-C flat as labelled here, after consolidating for several months. Please note that prices can still test up to 25800 levels, where wave A potentially terminated. If the above wave count holds true then we could see a potential bearish reversal from around 25650/750 levels. Probable direction could remain on the south side until prices stay below 26700/800 levels.
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Where is DOW Jones heading? Buy?Index is safe until 24935 is not breached on closing basis. At current level one should long near the lows with tight SL placed around 24875. A close above 25050 would be a safe indication and bulls may come in soon.
DJI has a nice level to goDJI looking for the blue line (not a trend line). Targets very clear.
Keep in mind: Corrections remain in place until a new high is made.
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Market recapSome important macro events that went on for the week with a weekly performance report for the 4 major indices on the US stock market. If you would like anything else added to the chart comment below.
Dow Jones: WARNINGWe are at predictable resistance in DJIA. Last Thursday saw the break of a rising wedge, but Friday offered little follow-through. We are now falling moderately in early Sunday trading (at the time of writing).
I was aiming for a test of trendline resistance within the purple box. We can still test this area; either way, I'm betting on a wholesale decline in equities.
THIS IS NOT A CRASH! US equities will not crash. We are simply in a consolidation period of multiple months, possibly years, which will eventually lead to an explosive rally.
My targets are the two trendline support lines. Should we break the second, I will be able to better judge where a buyable low will form - and there WILL be a great buying opportunity. This is a multi-month trade, lasting over the Summer, and possibly beyond.
For now, I'm short, and will add on any intraday rally on Monday, and possibly Tuesday.
Only a solid daily close above the previous swing high in the 25300 area would shift me into neutral. The market is would have to rally beyond the 25800 to make me bullish.
Dow Jones (US30) - Bearish Intermediate (C)The question is not if it's going to drop that hard, the question is if it's gonna honor the fibs and provide a good entry.
When it hits the fan, don't say you weren't warned.
DOW Daily PictureI'm expecting the completion of a larger correction on the DOW before we see the move up. This could come in the form of 3 or 5 waves.
Direct message me for any assistance
Best regards
Linton
Dow Jones Index (24200 - 24259 is a very important region)Dow Jones,
The market is definitely moving on the sentiment right now, without a proper fundamental backing. The fear of trade war.
I am expecting we might see some rebound near 24250.
In summary, we might be late to short as we have potential rebound on the card.
Press "like" and Follow for accurate and free trade signals.
s0nic
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Dow Jones 1 Hour Elliott Wave AnalysisHello Traders,
In this analysis, we will have a look at the Dow Jones 1 hour Elliott Wave chart.
Dow Jones ended cycle from 04/02 low (23311) at the peak of 06/11 peak (25417). Below from that peak, the instrument is currently correcting the cycle from 04/02 in 7 or 11 swings before the rally resumes or bounce in 3 waves at least.
Down from 06/11 peak, the decline is unfolding as Elliott Wave double correction, where sub-division of red wave W unfolded also in a double correction and ended at 06/19 (24564). Up from there, it ended red wave X pullback at the peak of 06/20 (24861).
Below from that peak, a 5 wave’s structure can be completed soon in red wave v of blue wave (a). Once the blue wave (a) is complete, the index should bounce in blue wave (b) in 3, 7 or 11 swings before the decline resumes towards the equal legs area of red W-X cycle which comes at around 24010-23810.
Dow Jones Nearing Completion of 5 Waves ImpulseDow Jones Futures Elliott Wave view suggests that the pullback to 24227 low on 5/29/18 ended in red wave 4 pullback. Above from there, the rally is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure with extension in the 3rd wave higher.
As an impulse, the internal of Minute degree wave ((i)), (( iii )) and ((v)) should also unfold as an impulse with 5 waves structure.
Up from 24227 low, black wave ((i)) ended in 5 waves structure at 24715. Down from there, the pullback to 24342 low ended black wave ((ii)).
The rally from there shows a strong reaction to the upside which ended black wave ((iii)) at around 25418 high. The subdivision of black wave ((iii)) is showing an impulse structure where blue wave (i) ended at 24863, blue wave (ii) ended at 24709 and blue wave (iii) ended at 25327. Blue wave (iv) ended at 25093 and blue wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 25418 high. Near-term cycle from 06/11/18 peak can be completed in black wave ((iv)) at 25255 low and ideally, it should now continue higher in black wave ((v)). However, as long as it stays below black wave ((iii)) peak a double correction lower in black wave ((iv)) can't be ruled out. Anyway, the right side remains to the upside.
As far as a pivot from 24337 low stays intact, we expect the Index to see another push higher in black wave ((v)) to end a 5 waves impulse structure from 5/29/18 low. We don’t like selling the index and the right side remains to the upside.
Dow jonesDow jones index on a daily chart finds itself on a resistance area. MACD pointing upwards showing potential bullish move, but we have to take into consideration average directional index which shows us the strenght of the current trend which is very low. Let's see what happens next. Have patience
Medium term uptrend on Dow JonesdowjonesThe index is on a symmetrical Channel Up on 4H (RSI = 55.713, MACD = 53.000). Given the overbought levels on both 5H & 1D (STOCH, STOCHRSI, Williams), I expect a pull back to 24,582 before reaching 24,996.70 again and 25,226.56 towards the end of the month. With a Higher High on 1D (Highs/Lows = 152.8571), I believe the long term downtrend came to an end. However, if 24,541.60 (EMA20/50) breaks, then the index will look for support at 24,035.92 (SMA200).
