Dowjonessignals
DOW JONES starting new rally to 36000.Dow Jones (DJI) has been correcting inside a Channel Down ever since the March 29 Top. This was the top of the March rally that broke emphatically much higher than the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), effectively confirming that this was the market bottom during the Ukraine - Russia war and the ongoing battle with inflation.
During uptrend technical structures, short-term Channel Down corrections are considered to be Bull Flags that serve as opportunities to buy for the continuation of the long-term bullish trend. The last such Bull Flag pattern, after a market correction of similar structured magnitude, was in May 2020 following the March 2020 correction due to the COVID pandemic market crash. Note that in both cases, the 1D Death Cross pattern (when the 1D MA50 crosses below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)) was formed on the market bottoms.
As you see, both Bull Flag patterns formed around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and corrected as low as the 1D MA50 inside the Red Ichimoku Cloud. In 2020, shortly after the Bull Flag broke to the upside, the 1W MACD formed a Bullish Cross. On the current (2022) pattern, the 1W MACD is very close to forming that Bullish Cross, potentially meaning that we are currently on an early buy signal.
When the Bull Flag broke to the upside, the 2020 pattern made its next Higher High just above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. On the current pattern, the 0.786 Fib is just below 36000. That is our target on Dow for the medium-term.
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DOW JONES key levels to watch that will determine the trendDow Jones has been trading within the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past 5 days. The rejection from the March 29 High came despite closing above the 1D MA200, on a move that caught the market off guard.
So far the price action resembles the blow-off top of January 05, which ended in a violent selling sequence. However this can be invalidated if the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (around 34000) holds, which is the new Buy Zone as mentioned on my previous analysis. If it holds, I expect Resistance 1 (35400) and Resistance 2 (35875) to be tested. If not, the January pattern will be confirmed and should test the Higher Lows trend-line of the February 24 bottom.
Short-term traders can keep scalping by taking advantage the 1D MA200 - MA50 range for short-term profits.
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DOW JONES broke its 1D MA200 but may consolidate for a whileDow Jones (DJI) broke today above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since February 16. However, as the Ukraine-Russia war isn't yet over, this rally will seek reassurances from this week's high impact macro-economic reports, namely Wednesday's GDP and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls.
If the index closes a 1D candle above Resistance 1 (35150) then the next target will be Resistance 2 (35875). If not and the price shoots back below the 1D MA200, look for a multi-week consolidation within the 1D MA200 and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which will be a good scalping opportunity.
The new long-term buy Zone is around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level but a closing below it should seek support on the bottom's Higher Lows trend-line. However I have to give the advantage to the long-term bullish case, as the RSI just broke above a multi-month Lower Highs trend-line, which is an indication of a long-term rally for 2022.
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DOW JONES testing the top of its Channel and 1D MA50My last Dow Jones update on the 1D time-frame was on a fractal comparison between the Ukraine - Russia war and the 2018/19 U.S. - Chine trade war:
So far it looks like the fractal works out quite well and may have a potential bottom. However as the index has come its closest to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since February 10, it is time to look into today in more detail, as a rejection may invalidate the bullish case.
As the chart shows, the dominant pattern is a Channel Down, meaning that the sentiment remains bearish. If the price gets rejected somewhere within the Resistance of the 1D MA50 and the top of the Channel Down (its Lower Highs trend-line), then most likely we will revisit the 32240 Support and potentially even a Lower Low on the -0.236 Fibonacci extension.
The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is also a Resistance, having a rejection on February 16. Practically, a clear buy is only a break above the 35150 Resistance (1), which will set in motion a test of the 35875 Resistance (2). See how those two Resistance levels match exactly the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels respectively.
At this point we have to mention that the 1D RSI is about to break its Lower Highs since November, giving an extra edge to the bullish case. Also note that the RSI is showing a hidden Bullish Divergence as it has been on Higher Lows since January 21 as opposed to the Lower Lows of the price action.
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US30 Dow Jones Prediction H1Here is my view for US30 on H1. The price should go up, you can put a pending order on the Order block or find an entry on LTF within OB Zone. Trade Safe!
DOW JONES enters decade long volatility when inflation happensThis is a long-term macro-economic chart on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, displaying Dow Jones (top chart) and the U.S. inflation rate (bottom chart). An interesting, yet alarming, correlation can be found on a decade-long horizon by comparing those two.
As you see, the three previous times that the inflation rate made a Higher Highs pattern, Dow entered a +10 year consolidation phase of very high volatility where at least once, the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) was touched. Interestingly enough, those decades coincided with the biggest wars after WW1. If this is indeed a pattern to follow, could this mean that the new volatile decade ahead will be marked by yet another big war (the Russia - Ukraine perhaps)? Will the 1M MA200 be hit again before 2030? History certainly seems to agree.
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DOW JONES fractal from China trade war points to a slow recoveryThis chart shows a lot of similarities of the current Ukraine - Russia war and the build up to it, with the 2018 fractal of the U.S. - China trade war.
As this 1D chart illustrates, Dow Jones' build up to the peak of the U.S. - Russia trade war was on a Higher Highs trend-line supported by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Then the index declined rapidly on Lower Lows, forming the bottom just after a Death Cross (crossing of the 1D MA50 below the 1D MA200). It was exactly then that Xi and Trump called a truce at the G20 summit.
At the moment, the Ukraine - Russia war is displayed on those exact same Lower Lows, having broken below the 1D MA200 and with the 1D Death Cross pending (perhaps 1 - 2 days away). Notice how even the MACD fractals are fairly similar. Can the current peach-talks bring an end to the war and a bottom on DJI, the same way Xi and Trump did at G20? This week will certainly shows us.
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Dow Jones naked price action.. Good evening from The Netherlands my Friends.
Fasten your seatbelts for a nice week of opportunities.
The America markets will be tested ahead of Russia and the Ukraine news..
When it comes to naked price action this is what I good get out of it..
My biggest lesson i have learned is to think in probabilities and possibilities..
The chart can be bearish now and all the favors will favor the bears but when the market opens tomorrow it can all be blown away and move it's own way..
Always be objective and never trade out of fear..
The pattern we see is a double top. These patterns have a good ratio of being true.
Even with the confirmation it can turn the other way.
We will see.. I begin the week with this picture and will steer in starting the week..
Dow Jones US30 Chart H1Here is my view for US30 on H1. The price should go up, you can put a pending order on the Order block or find an entry on LTF within OB Zone. Trade Safe!
DOW JONES about to complete a handle to new All Time HighDow Jones has bee forming peculiar Cup & Handle (C&H) patterns since June 2021. Every time the price broke above the Handle, new All Time High (ATH) followed. As you see DJI is right now on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and about to break above the latest handle. If it breaks, the formation should target the 1.236 Fibonacci extension by mid March. The time-frame is such because the previous Higher High was formed halfway the red Ichimoku Cloud.
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DOW JONES The RSI on 1D and 1W signal rally ahead.This is Dow Jones on the 1D time-frame. The price made a bottom just before the 33040 Support of the June 21 2021 Low and is rebounding, about to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Resistance.
Below the chart, I've placed the RSI both on the 1D and 1D time-frames. On 1D, the RSI hit the multi month Support and rebounded and on 1W it hit the bottom of a 5 month Channel Down and rebounded. All these indicate that the market has formed a bottom and is at the early stages of a rally towards the Higher Highs trend-line. My target is just below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension at 37000.
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DOW Target doneWe have shared detailed DJI chart that you can see below in the link.
After breaking trend line support DJI met both the target and took support lower trend line and closing above the same trend line.
FED meeting ahead and we can expect high volatility near future.
Based on chart and price action a bounce back from current level is on the card.
Dow Jones: Superman to the Rescue! 🦸As we all clearly feel these days, the markets are knee-deep in a phase of correction. We know, this can be alarming, but never fear! There is hope for rescue! It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s Superman! Like Superman rushes down to catch his crush Lois Lane in free fall, Dow Jones has rushed down into the orange-colored zone between 33518 and 32614 points. And just like Superman caught Lois Lane before she hit the ground, we expect Super Jones to end wave C in green within the orange-colored zone and before hitting 32500 points. The index should then fly up again, his red cape fluttering behind, and aim for 35221 points. From there, its superpower should be strong enough to shoot it to 36446 points and higher.
DOW JONESHello traders. In case of failure of the set level and return of the price or pullback, 38% of the previous move will be corrected
DOW30 support levelsThe DOW30 went even lower from the strong support that it should hold and now will either do a small bounce, if not go lower and visit the key support area.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
DOW JONES hit its 1W MA50, 1st time since the U.S. elections!DJIA hit the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since November 02 2020 and the U.S. elections. At the time, this was the final bottom of the post COVID Channel Up, the index never saw this level again and the strong 2021 rally started.
Besides the 1W MA50, Dow also made a direct hit on the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the long-term Channel Up that started early in 2021. The 1D RSI also just entered its long-term Support Zone, which provided 3 out of 3 accurate buy signals before.
As long as this pattern holds, the next long-term target and Higher High for Dow Jones is the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP just below at 37000).
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Dow Jones analysis As I mentioned in previous chart of DJI closing below 36000 will trigger strong selling.
You can see in the current chart that the index treded multiple time below 36000 but did not close even a single day.
Just wait for one closing below 36000 and get ready for a big red candle.
DOW JONES on the short-term buy zoneDow hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since December 22. Within the 2021 Channel Up, this is a symmetrical support level both on RSI terms and from a price perspective with the Support Zone being within the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The sequence resembles a lot the July 08 - 19 fractal. The bottom was achieved exactly when the Ichimoku Cloud started to squeeze. I treat this as a short-term buy opportunity with a 37100 Target (0.236 Fibonacci extension).
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Dow Jones (Over Bought) Shorting chance Jan 2021Hi
This index seems to be over bought to us as it is recovering from the Corona pandemic Crisis and the way it has rallied, we may have a chance to short it at its correction or so called retracement.
we can see bearish divergence of Price and MACD and combining this flow with Price Action Analysis it gives us more confluences of a down fall and a trend reversal or at least a retracement or market correction
we have specified some support levels which can be used as some target areas and some trend lines as the most fall levels
truly speaking we don't have any concrete fundamental reasoning behind such a fall but some how we can relate it to the upcoming chaos in the USA political and FinTech industry and giant MNCs who can be an other reason for an other crisis...
please bring some reasoning for this fall if you have any in mind...
DOW JONES could enter an accumulation cylinder if the MA50 holdsEverything went according to plan since my last update on Dow Jones as we accurately caught the December 20 bottom and today the 37000 target has been almost hit, so it might be a could idea to book medium-term profits:
I have to update our outlook now as a new pattern may emerge as per the late 2020 price action. That is an Accumulation Cylinder (as per Livermore's speculative model) that technically leads to a new High. The technical condition for this to arise is for the 1D MA50 to hold. In fact there are so far many similarities with November 09 2020, which was when the last Accumulation Cylinder took place:
a) The price is near the 0.236 Fibonacci extension. It was at that level that the rise stopped, the price took a relief break but the 1D MA50 held and the cylinder started.
b) The Ichimoku Cloud squeezed right before the Cylinder started.
c) Both rises that preceded the Cylinder started on a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) rebound
d) Both were at the end of a long-term Channel Up.
e) The sequence that completed the Channel Up and started the Cylinder was a Zig Zag Higher Highs/ Higher Lows displayed by the bold black arrow.
On the other hand, if the 1D MA50 fails, we should most likely see an extension of the Channel Up. In that case Dow should hit at least the 1D MA200. Basically the most optimal buy entry in the past 6 months within the Channel Up has been the 1D RSI's Buy Zone (green zone).
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DOW JONES hit the 1D MA200. Buy fractal spotted.Dow Jones has had a very sharp two-day pull-back, which hit today the 1D MA200 (orange-trend-line). That came off an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S) that continues to resemble that of June - July. With the 1D RSI hitting the Symmetrical Support level of the July 19 low which initiated the strong rebound to the 0.236 Fibonacci extension, I expect the same sequence to be replicated and hit 37000 by the end of next month.
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