NZDUSD Setting Up for a Potential Downside Move With NZDUSD finally breaking below the demand zone at around .66400-.66200 the market has confirmed that it intends to move lower. Since breaking below this demand zone, price action has found a bit of support at around.65750 and ran up to retest the demand zone. This tells us that the previous support has now turned resistance. I would like to see the market push below .65700 with some good momentum before taking on my short position. If price action can break below this level with some decent momentum we could potentially see a significant downside move. The .65000 even level might give some support because of the psychological aspect of it. However, if price action can break below that level it could signify a move even lower and potentially retest previous structure lows.
Please note the following rules below for entry to the downside:
Price action remaining below .66500
Price action picking up some bearish momentum
Enter on bearish momentum breaking below the .65750 support level, ideally at around .65700
Profit whatever you can get, the initial target is .65000 even as it is a large psychological level and can therefore act as support. As mentioned above, if momentum pushes below there we could potentially see a retest of previous lows.
Stop loss just above the .65000 level
This trade will lose its potential if the first rule becomes no longer applicable. For example if bullish momentum pushes price action substantially above the .65000 level.
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Down-trend
GBP/USD Analysis 01.05.2013Background:
Price found enough demand to halt its current downmove @1.46300 where the current minor rally
broke the (red) supplyline indicating that demand outweight supply at this moment , the rally stopped near
the current high @1.5552 which can bee seen as current resistance which needs to be overcome in order to speak
for returning strenght to the market , if we break the (green) demandline we may head down to at least 1.50280
which is the 50% retracement level of the current rally, any buying occuring at that level can bee seen as a further
sign of strenght , however if we fail to hold this level we head back to the support @1.4630 and any rejection at this
level can be seen as strenght yet again , however we may form a trading range between res.1.55520 and sup.
1.4630 for the time beeing .
Signs of Strenght:
Downmove came to an halt
Broken Supplyline
Signs of Weakness:
Price failed to take out the actual high
Key Levels above current price:
1.5520
1.5870
Key Levels below current price:
1.5028
1.4630
sidenote:
A downmove can only last for so long till their is a change in demand, and the balance of supply and demand
changes in the favour of demand , ie. the buyers are at least heads up with the sellers and stop price from going any
lower , if price then is in equibilirium ie., going sideways most traders agree on the same price "fair value"
value = price over time , this balance(cause) aswell only goes on so long till there is a change in demand and supply
and we have an imbalance(effect) and a new trend establishes till we find balance again..