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DXY: Dollar Index About to turn back downDollar Index DXY Update The dollar is still in a medium term downtrend and currently making a small continuation pattern inside an inverted flag before falling away again. It should halt here at 93.78 and at very best as it reaches 93.99 and spikes into the upper parallel controlling this little consolidation period for the dollar. Gold becomes a buy at this point, looking to increase long positions aggressively on a break below the lower small parallel of the inverted flag. DXY should fall to 92.75 -92.62 range where will look to close out XAU longs, only going long gold again once 92.62 breaks on DXY. Look to use the dollar counter-rally as an opportunity to build gold longs, turning aggressively bullish once that lower parallel gives way.
TVC:DXYShort
by sumastardon
DXY: Dollar Index Game changer for PairsDXY: Dollar Index Game Changer Really thought DXY would hold up off the lower parallel one more time by drifting sideways to meet it and then bouncing. But it hasn't and today's price action is the final straw that's broken the Greenback's back. This 2 month long continuation pattern is at an end and the dollar's downtrend resumes from this point. Look to sell dollar against pairs on next rally now. DXY looks likely to fall back down to 94, make a failed rally from here (giving a second chance to set-up dollar shorts v Eur) and then to fall away to 92.70, bounce again, likely fail again, and then fall away to 91. Use the first rally on DXY towards 94.25-94.30 as a last chance to short go short of USD across all pairs, if we are lucky enough to see it. Today's price action is a game changer. We can no longer look to buy USD on declines - instead, the chart is telling us to sell USD rallies until further notice. As usual about 3 people will bother to read this. I know that those 3 are the most switched on, most sensible traders of all ! And another strange thing you may have noticed too: because this wonderful website relies on 'likes' to gain 'reputation', what it actually relies on is confirmation bias. If you agree with the comment, maybe you 'like' it. As 80 to 90% of all traders lose money all this confirmation bias actually does is lead the blind towards the equally blind. Often the comment with the most likes is the one that's going to be most wrong, not right. But that's how it works, counter intuitively, just like markets themselves sometimes. So I asked the guys who run the site if perhaps they could analyse the forecasts and set-ups of just the so-called top 10 writers and maybe run a new idea: Top 10 most accurate writers by results (a call is either right or wrong, must hit given target to be right, not very complicated or even very time consuming if just 10 writers are being monitored) - but no. They thought about it and dropped it. So, to moral of this tale: Just because a comment gets a load of likes it doesn't in reality mean a thing. It's more likely the comment that gets no likes is going to be more accurate. Just like with markets, sometimes the exact opposite applies to conventional 'wisdom'. The wisdom of the crowd. Mmmm. You mean the same crowd who adored Hitler or Mao ...or even Hillary Clinton? You'll get more sense from talking to your dog most of the time. Just sayin'
TVC:DXYShort
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD On the brink of breaking down againBITCOIN: BTCUSD OWN IT Momentarily neutral with negative undertone taking over Just realised what looks a very costly mistake on my part, definitely not the chart's, which hasn't really given a bad/false signal for while now. This is my bad, so I have to own it, like sack-cloth... I said in an earier comment (here,left) that we could move the stop up on longs to ''about 6490 and just under'. Firstly, this was just straight-out dumb, knowing that the key support and pivot for the day is 6450 (it extends as high as 6477 but 6450 is the pivot, by look of chart). Since then the low 6477, so if you happened to stick a stop right under 6490 it will have been taken. Abject apologies. I'd been updating on the cryptocurrency page on Tradingview and had mentioned 6450 as key support and and this carried over into the last comment which assumed (in slightly wired state due to lack of sleep chasing this monster) that everyone already knew that 6450 was the last-gasp support for bulls today. So, conflicting comments with the last one assuming stops were under 6450. Just dumb, overtired idiocy. Will try to be more accurate/thoughtful with wording regarding stops (as previously mentioned the bane of all traders). Day traders will have exited on the break below the lower parallel and other longs with stops anything up to the usual 50 points under a key support level will still be long but sweating now. So now we need to redress matters. It looks to be deteriorating again and will have to scramble higher from here quickly now to escape unravelling again. The 6450 Pivot has already been violated and it's struggling to get back above that old dynamic that's still hanging above at 6537. It's weak whilst under here. Any stops on longs placed 50 points under 6450 are in danger of getting blown. They are in a sensible place, but we need to be prepared for them to get taken if Bitcoin cannot scramble higher quickly from here..if so, tough. We look to reverse short again looking for lower prices as per comment at top of page. This could be a nasty sloping continuation patter, which is why we can't give up on longs and just turn tail here. we have to wait for the signal.. ...a break below last stop (if not already out for 50 point loss) at 6400 will signal that the counter-rally game is up, buying power spent, so look to short as above, top. Sorry for so much typing covering the chart. It's so Twitter and Stocktwits can read the all the BS off screen too. Clean chart coming next
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
1
EURUSD case study after fomc 2 day DROPPING - OVERBOUGHTI have been follow fomc event and after trade and it is very interesting of seeing how change it process each day but i will say that it is mostly ending up trend according to the slowly pace in this morning most likely move this is the highest high or if it higher I think it should not be more than 100 points the most as the previous high 1.19600 is the highest high OR if people are more crazy to buy more at overbought price it can be 1.19700 the max now, today you will see the drop whole way If you like my analysis please help to like and follow Thank you Enjoy trade
Short
by putdejudom