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Downside

Adobe Trend Reversal or Buy Opportunity? Adobe (ADBE) exploded upwards on Friday, March 16th after reporting their earnings. At the same time, a huge reversal bar formed on the daily chart with the close at $126.94.  The following trading day’s bar closed just below the low confirming a possible reversal of a pretty massive uptrend the stock has been under over the last months. Not to mention, Adobe and Microsoft (MSFT) have announced a joint venture in customer engagement and marketing, as well as an Adobe announcements of new cloud services.  The cloud services could become a new commercial source of revenue, especially with Adobe’s niche in the creative marketplace as opposed to cloud service providers like Amazon’s (AMZN) AWS. But is it time to go short and sell? Well, for now, yes, or with less capital risk, fade the reversal.  Fundamentals for the company are strong, with growth showing in the long term. But our strategy is a swing strategy to take advantage of lower risk opportunities.  This trade with a stop loss above the high of the reversal bar at $130.30 is definitely not the lowest risk of them all, but a credit spread might suffice before a high potential for bullish continuation in the long run. If you’re an options player like myself or a straight underlying trader, then here’s a few sets of trades depending on your investment style. 1)      Short the stock Entry: any price today Stop: $130.31 on market close Trail it after two more days of closing bars until breakeven. If the trend has started in the downward direction, trail it to our middle moving average and follow it until the bulls take over 2)      Credit Spread Sell X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 130 Strike Buy X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 135 Strike Max Profit: ~13% Return on Risk/Investment 3)      Stay on the sidelines, and wait for a buy signal fractal for medium/longer term trade Buy X Amount of Calls, 20 Oct 17 Exp, 115 Strike Again, from a technical standpoint, we currently rate Adobe (ADBE) a Sell in the short term, but the bullish uptrend has a high likelihood of continuing in the medium to longer term due to the fundamental outlook and growth opportunities for the company. Until our next article.
NASDAQ:ADBE
by EdgeAnalytics
Elliott Wave Analysis: CADJPY Could Be In For A ReversalAs you might know, we are looking higher on stocks based on Elliott Wave structure after only three waves of decline on E-mini S&P500 from 2400 highs. So more upside on stocks is normally bearish for Japanese yen, in risk-on environment. At the same time we see Oil prices in bullish mode as well which can be supportive for the Canadian dollar. What all that said, CADJPY can be an interesting pair in the coming sessions and days. Not only because of those market correlations, but also because of the wave structure which shows wave C) down to be an ending diagonal; this is a reversal pattern which can already be pointing to the upside if we consider five waves up on 30min chart.
by ew-forecast
EURUSD start fallingEURUSD is going to start falling or never. We are now heading to March US debt ceiling and French election One of the Candidate Marine Le Pen launched her presidential campaign, promising to put France first by freeing it it from the “tyrannies” of globalisation, Islamic fundamentalism and the European Union. If French election is favour Le Pen, EURUSD will cascade down. further more, UK will start Brexit in March so Europe is full of uncertain. Moreover, the Greece debt problem will be due on July this year. Although Greece has suffer along and have achieve Fiscal surplus for 1% of GDP, some IMF offical still insist Greece have to achieve fiscal surplus of 3.5% in 2018 in order to get aid. Weekly Chart of EURUSD is showing a rebound to previous support line and also 20 week moving average and hit resistance. Stochastic is showing overbought means it is a bit difficult to get further rally. if EURUSD break below 1.05 then it will open up the way to parity.
Short
by bruceyam
NZDUSD: More Downside?!Hi Traders, Doing my pre-week analysis and came across and interesting trend continuation setup on Kiwi. After moving within an ascending channel for the past two weeks, this pair has broken to the downside and printed new monthly lows. Trend continuation traders may find an opportunity to short this pair on a retest of the breakout. I have marked the sell zone in red on the chart. I would be looking to enter short in the 38.2% - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone, and targeting the 127.2% - 161.8% Fibonacci extension for profits. Stops would be placed ~50 pips above entry, ideally above 0.73350 (channel midpoint). We may not get any pullback to this level, and in that case I would not pursue the trade with aggressive (lower) entries. Let the market come to you and don't chase price! Luke
Short
by Beebags