Downside
METX, Some downside to come? It's looking like METX might be heading down to under .3600, The day chart doesn't look the best, and the cracks are starting to show on the smaller time frames.
I'd probably look to sell tomorrow (Nov 19th) or next week (NOV 22nd), hopefully around .4820-.4900, HOWEVER, I really have no idea if it will get there, and that's more of a personal opinion.
Here are some key numbers to watch for
SHORT TERM KEY NUMBERS
.4333-.4336
.4585-.4595
SELL RANGE 1
.4900-.5100
BUY RANGE 1 (SHORT TERM)
.3699-.3777
SELL RANGE 2
.4225-.4333
OR
.4444-.4585
BUY RANGE 2 (LONG ENTRY)
.3444-.3600
APPLE DISTRIBUTION SCHEMATICS!Hello my beauties.
Apple is in a distibution phase, right before the markdown. I will wait on a successful retest of the trading range, and sell. The arrow doesn't indicate the actual price target, rather an idea of the direction of the upcoming trend.
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Luca, TrickleDownFX
Confluence Re - distributionAs promised here i have the confluence on this exact level.
- Weekly level
- CC fibonacci .66-.618
- POC of the range
- 1.618 Fib extension
-1/1 Fib extension
-1.414 fib extension
- Daily level ( Not marked )
- Market structure Level ( Not market )
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Re distribution Next event!Welcome to thunderboy21 technical analysis,
Here you see 2 parts on the chart that are very similar to each other, as i have said is my previous Post i was looking at this fractal from above distribution and projected it on this price action.
i shorted the top via this fractal for a 20% move down ( Did not expect that fast )
i think this is just going to play out, first on the rise up to 49k ish everyone gets ultra bullish and fomo longs, only to sell into the bigger sell orders that are waiting at these levels.
in the next post i will post the picture of this .618 - .66 fib with all the confluence i found! Make sure you check it out!
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ADAUSD Stagnant At SupportSo I am currently neutral on ADA at the moment. We are sitting at a point where ADA is showing bearish signals but there has not been a confirmation of a lower low yet. The price is sitting at a support which normally brings buying power from bulls, yet we see nothing. The problem is the lack of a higher high. Bulls do not feel comfortable buying at the highest support level with no confirmed higher high and because of this bears are starting to take control. However, this can always change, but there will need to be a signal to the bulls that brighter days are ahead. I believe a price move is right around the corner. Obviously, I have alerts set all over the place just in case I miss something and you should too. Personally, I think we are going to see a lower low soon. However, there is always the chance that news will come out and change the sentiment and give the bulls revitalized momentum. The important things to note from this chart are: there is less and less buying power at the support level, the price is riding the slumped 200MA, the price is trading sideways, we have lower highs, a price move is likely around the corner. If you want more details on why I feel this way, take a look at my breakdown of the 1D chart in my last post. Keep in mind this isn't the end of the world for ADA, pullbacks happen all the time and trends shift. This is completely normal for the price movement of any asset. To be quite honest, I look forward to new buying opportunities. I plan on holding ADA for at least 5 years so if I can add to my collection at a decent price, so be it. I should also mention that the crypto market as a whole does not look bad at all. I believe the bearish sentiment towards crypto has been weakening as time passes by, but I will get more into that at another time.
Now for some good news. As a person who follows ADA closely, I know that the adoption of the platform will happen very quickly with the release of smart contracts on the 12th of September. In fact, I think it was built with such a great foundation, I might just do an entire post on the fundamentals of Cardano sometime in the future. Pretty soon, we will see NFTs being created, DeFi, applications being developed, and overall strong adoption of the ADA blockchain platform as a whole. If there will be any immediate reason for ADA to move higher, it will likely be news coming from the summit on the 25-26 of September. So I would keep an eye on their twitter accounts around that time.
Again, I apologize for having less time to post at the moment, but that will change in a couple weeks.
I am going to make a video soon teaching everyone my approach to charting. I will cover the entire workflow process I go through. I hope you enjoy it.
Tell me what you think?
This is not financial advice. DYODD.
Current Downside TargetThe hash ribbons indicator which is very rare to happen has already lit up into buying signal and after days of green candles,
I suspect and hope (actually) for a better leg up in a retracement of BTC's current price.
My good case retracement scenario is BTC testing the 41K level as it is the price where the blue downward slope and as 41K price level is around 0.5 Fibonacci level from the newest daily low (37.3K-ish) up to the highest point (45.3K-ish).
(This price might be a good time to go long in trades and take profit quickly after meeting the resistance around 42k-43k). #Not a Financial Advisor
If it broke down, we will see a test around 36K level, and from that point, it's best to continue watching BTC price movement as this is the second to last support level.
The last support level in a very worst-case scenario according to my analysis is around 32.2K which is accidentally the same as the 1.6 fib level and CME level.
So yeah, This is my current price analysis of the downside level that BTC can put its leg up to...
Looking forward to seeing your comments and what you think will likely happen according to your analysis... THX
DOGE - Risk Management CommentaryOn average, the Cost Basis for DOGE Coin is less than $0.02.
Because, no more than around 10% of DOGE capitalisation has been actively traded, downside can be as low as $0.02 - with very little resistance straight down to the 'floor'
The tell-tale sign of a break is when existing long traders (at their current break-even point or currently experiencing losses ) - finally throw in the towel and square-up their positions, or worse case, miners etc., those who have a cost basis at much lower prices, dump their inventory - for them at the current price, that's still a very attractive return and still a very real possibility.
Of course the inverse is also true - but subject to 'tweet risk' - a different risk driver.
So be aware, and plan your risk management accordingly! Good Luck !
CHF/JPY - Rollercoaster Ride Last Week🎢We took advantage of the downside movement last week on this pair. Check out how 4HR levels have been violated. Another bearish week?
We have seen the JPY reverse last week after lockdown restrictions have eased for the majority of cities in Japan.
We are currently at a key long term level in price - a break of this level will mean further downside movement this week!
Gold - Price Testing Long Term Ascending TrendlineAre we going to see some bearish PA if we break this ascending trendline?
Check out what happened last time we broke an ascending trendline!
If we do see a break and downside movement, keep an eye on our marked shorter term key levels for potential bounce points and areas of support.
BTCUSD- Downside Projection 21K If we take a look back at the 2017-2018 Crypto run up and sell off the similarities in price action are eerie. I went through studying all the moves trying to find a proper price target based on measured moves with little success. However, today I had a realization, once BITSTAMP:BTCUSD was unable to rally, and a large liquidation through $30000, I realized that we could be on track for another 50% downturn from this level as distribution continues.
Comparison -
Here is an image of the 2018 drop and as we can see their similarities are glaring. Bitcoin made a new high moving up 492% from a swing low. Dominance fell off sharply right before this high was made topping out around 71. This was followed by a sharp drop in dominance. Despite this, the price of Bitcoin continued its rally finally running out of gas at 19666. Here is where things really become interesting. Ethereum the second most popular cryptocurrency at the time (coinmarketcap.com), began to go on an insane rally. After making all time highs with bitcoin, it pulled back with bitcoin but from its swing low of 501, it pumped 183%. ETH just completed an identical pattern putting in a swing low and rallying 125%. As the ETH high was put in, Bitcoin continued to oscillate in a small range and began to lose dominance at a very rapid rate. From the ATH to the bottom of dominance bitcoins price dropped 36%. Today's measurements show a 34% drop but the pattern between highs and in dominance in price are identical. Once Ethereum put in new highs, It sharply dropped and the crypto market was all downhill from there. Bitcoins dominance finally bottomed out yet prices across the crypto market continued declining rapidly. If today is the bottom of Bitcoins dominance (beginning to look that way) I wholly expect for the market to continue lower. Bitcoin regained a dominance of over 60 after 241 days down trending The price change during this time was a drop of 58%. I expect for BTC.D to be able to top 60 in half of that time as this bear cycle pans out.
Key Differences -
While theoretically, history would suggest that Bitcoin drops 80% off highs however, this seems unrealistic without major fundamental shift. Integration into businesses and money transferring apps gives Bitcoin lots more value than it had during 2018. People are interested in Cryptocurrency but the liquidity retail has brought into the market is a double edged blade. On the one hand, there is more money going into a product with a cap on supply which will always raise price, on the other hand there is more liquidity for short sellers to take advantage of. Another aspect that has changed is institutional investing. With larger interests now holding bitcoin due to incredible alpha and versatility such as protection against inflation (something that has not been present recently but I will save it for another post) is a huge win for Bitcoin. Many institutions would likely find Bitcoin a steal at 21K as it continues to grow mainstream. These differences are the main reason I only project a 50% drop in price for bitcoin. That being said, these are only my thoughts and there could be a drastic change in Bitcoin in the near future that completely changes the market, I will update this idea if that is the case.
Conclusion -
I hope whoever is reading this was able to take something away from it. Feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts or a conflicting view.
Meaning of Lines
Red Dashed- Dominance Low
Green Dashed- Dominance High
Gold- Price High
AUD/USD - Range Breakout Imminent?First analysis of the week we cover AUD/USD!
Price has been range bound (100 pip range). Will we see a USD resurgence, breakout to the downside of this range and a bearish impulsive move?
This 0.77 level is key and price is approaching out support zone highlighted in this analysis. A potential price forecast has been identified by the red path!
BABA Head and Shoulders- Watch for break in supportA head and shoulders pattern has formed on Alibaba and the neckline is perfectly aligned with the firmly established support line that has been tested numerous times since October 2018. The head and shoulders pattern on BABA has been forming since September 2019 and if the neckline/support is broken I think we could see a very significant drop from here.
FSLY Death Cross + Break in Support could bring big downsideFSLY is down approximately 50% since January 27th and unfortunately it looks like the bleeding may continue. As you can see from the chart the retest of support is occurring in unison with the occurrence of the moving average death cross. I think there is a good chance support will be broken here in which case I believe we would likely see a further drop in price to $40-$50 level.
Ethereum head and shoulders breakEthereum has recently broken the neckline on a 4hr chart head and shoulders pattern slicing though support at 1720USD. The downside target for the head and shoulders pattern is 1499USD. The target for a developing bear flag is 1660USD. Before we test 1499USD I expect a retest of 1720USD acting as resistance.