How to set-up alternatives in your portfolio to dampen volTo start off, diversification is an investor's best friend and most handy tool. When thinking about long-term investing or even if you are a day trader trying to protect all your gains without just sitting on the sidelines, one must implement alternative investment strategies in order to stay afloat and provide some stability to their portfolio.
To do such a thing, I would have 5 to 15% of your overall account value in cash ready to place these hedges. I will list 4 options to improve your portfolio's downside protection with #1 being the least risky and the most highly recommended for all types of investors, #4 being the riskiest and only recommended for those with large risk appetites.
1. A market-neutral fund:
This is a fund that tries to hedge risk with an investment mix consisting of short and long positions. I would suggest this to every single investor no matter your risk tolerance. I suggest a 5% position. BTAL is a good option that I use. If you have mutual funds, CVSIX is the way to go.
2. An income-generating alternative fund:
This is a fund that not only employs an alternative strategy but also pays a monthly dividend to allow for you to make new moves each month, padding other positions that have reached new lows as the bearish market conditions and turbulence continues. Now mind you, this is still giving you exposure to big holdings that have downside potential but you are in it for the dividends and strategies outside of equity. I would suggest a 5% position. JEPI is the best option, OUSA is the second-best in my opinion. JEPI sells call options in its strategies allowing for additional horsepower on the downside without you having to be monitoring a put or call option constantly.
3. Inverse ETFs:
These are ETF's that are inversely correlated to the overall index. When the market zigs, these zag. For example, SPXS is 3x leveraged to the downside of the SPX while SQQQ is triple leveraged to the NDX, so when the index is down 1%, the etf is up 3%. I would only suggest 1 to 2% in each of these. I would avoid shorting the DJI because the average yield of the Dow Jones is still safe in comparison to the 10-year treasury bill.
4. Selling Calls against existing holdings/buying puts
If you have holdings you really like but do not want to get rid of, you can sell call options against them. You have to have at least 100 shares for each single contract you sell. This is much more advanced and is only recommended to those who are savvy or fearless. Essentially, you say "Sure, if this stock hits this price, I will sell you my 100 shares at that price". The higher a strike price of the call that you sell, the less premium you will collect because the probability of it actually reaching that price is much lower. So for instance, if you bought 100 shares of a stock at $20, and it's now trading at $30, you sell a call at the $35 strike price for those $100 shares for $50 bucks; now there's two ways this plays out. (1) the stock hits the $35 strike and you get $3,500, locking in a $1,500 gain on your stock ($20x100=$2000) or you can always chose to buy it back if you think the stock is still going higher. OR (2) you collect that $50 bucks upon expiration if the stock doesn't hit $35.
Buying a put would be to profit from a stock going down; so for a really easy example, a put on the QQQ would be extremely similar to buying the inverse etf SQQQ because in both scenarios, the investment vehicles go up when the Nasdaq goes down. You essentially are placing a bet that the stock is going down. The nice thing about this is you don't have to put up a 100 shares as collateral for each contract and that your loss is predefined. So if you buy a put option expiring April 1st on the QQQ for $150, you max loss is $150 bucks. On the other hand; the market crashed and the option hit in the money; you could be looking at anywhere from 100 to 600% return. This in turn is used as dry gun powder on that terrible red day; same with your other alternatives. They can be thought of as placeholders of your buying power for when the sh*t hits the fan. What's worse than seeing a firesale day full of top-notch opportunities and having no buying power? Nothing. Be very cautious with buying puts and even more cautious with selling calls.
I'm still long the market! Btw if you want to play the DJI which should outperform the other two major indices; check out UDOW for 3x and DDM for 2x leverage. Happy trading
Downside
The nasdaq has a slight bubble, protect the downside with SQQQThis is not investment advice, do your own homework and evaluate how much you can tolerate risking.
SQQQ is triple leveraged to the downside on the QQQ, which is the ETF that directly tracks the NASDAQ. As 2021 has begun to play out, it has become more and more apparent that these overvalued tech and software companies are out way past their skis in terms of multiples.
SQQQ provides the perfect protection to these lofty tech stocks as VOLQ is not available on most platforms. VOLQ is the NASDAQ's Vix, which would be my preferred way of protection for the downside but unfortunately is not available for trade on the brokerages I use.
So essentially for every 1% that the QQQ (proxy for the NASDAQ:NDX ) falls, SQQQ rises by 3%. Since it is so heavily inversely correlated, it makes for a great hedge.
When implementing a strategy such as this into your portfolio, I would recommend starting with a meager 1-3% position and no more than 5%. Another solid alternative strategy that is a good permanent piece of a stable portfolio is a market neutral fund.
GBP/NZD - Break of Ascending Structure Will we see further downside movement on this pair?
We saw a break of structure last week after price tagged the top of our ascending channel around a key long term level in the market. Will we see price cycle down to the bottom of previous structure?
This pair indicates strength vs strength in the forex markets at the moment. Want to know what this means? Drop me a message?
AQBAQB seems to be posting a pretty solid HAS pattern. The right shoulder has yet to really play out, but it looks inevitable. Assuming the HAS pattern does play out fully, I'm expecting AQB to ultimately test a support around $6.90, and maybe even as low as $5.90. As always, Only Time Will Tell. *NFA
EUR/USD - Range broken to the DownsideBears continue to take control of this market as price breaks to the downside. Could we see a retest of previous support before further movement to the downside?
We forecasted a break to the downside because it was in line with our HTF directional bias on the pair. For more - just drop me a private message!
EUR/USD - Break of Range to the downside?Good Morning Traders and welcome to a new trading week! I appreciate every single one of my followers and I really hope you enjoy my daily analysis!
On this pair we can see price trading in a range, potentially heading lower to test the support zone of our range. This week we could see a break to the downside in line with my longer term directional bias.
Any questions just drop me a private message. I will do my very best to reply!
Have a great trading week!
GBP/USD - Price flirting with 1.37 Price currently residing below 1.37 after a break above and break back under our whole level.
Are we going to see more downside movement during the week?
Or will price continue to test the upside?
Remember this pair is very fundamental - keep an eye on the news surrounding both currencies!
Why btc dump isn't over yetVolatility on the weekly has expanded considerably, which coupled with a red week(which we currently have) marks local tops, I expect further downside to 30k, and if it doesn't double bottom, expecting the previous orderblock at 22 to 24k to hit. Btc also tends to backtest the last weekly ath after breaking it, which currently is at 19-20k.
If it indeed plays out like this the dump will probably be over by january 20-25, and expect the uptrend to resume and gradually pump to 41k and then an explosive move up.
If instead it consolidates at 30-36k for the next few days it will probably not dump. The safe play is to wait out the storm. But current market conditions offer great day trades. This idea is invalidated if there's continued movement above 38k.
NZD/USD - Evolved Structure and LevelsWe can see price has now reversed - we expected dollar strength and this is what we're continuing to see through London this morning. Lets see how price develops on the pair through New York in around 4 hours time.
Identify key trends, key breaks, key structure levels. We're expecting more downside movement on the pair.
Happy Trading! Hope you all have a great week. Remember, any analysis questions drop me a message!
Strong Bearish Divergence
Strong bearish RSI divergence on 4hr
If candle closes in a shooting star I expect mega correction
Remember however BTC is the boss and does what it wants to, this bull run IS NOT over whether it corrects now or not. BTC has easily been breaking RSI patterns and it may do it now. just be prepared for either way it goes, but if shooting star closes, I'm shorting in the short term
Let me know what you guys think!
BTC possible forming of Head & Shoulders [12/01/21]I'm posting this idea so I have a record of my ideas and hopefully start a discussion. This is not to be blindly followed or taken as investment advice... please please please DYOR!
Line of Thinking:
We are forming a potential Head & Shoulders pattern on the 4hr. We are currently moving down forming the right side of the right shoulder after having a failed IH&S on the 1hr. If we close this 4hr candle anywhere bellow $34121 Stoch will turn down, and ADX is currently strong with DI- positive and DI+ negative, which makes me think we will at least testing the neckline.
There is some big hidden divergance on most indicators, including the DMI which I often find does not show as much divergance as the others, which leads me to think this divergance should be given good weight in the trade decision. We used up so much momentum to get down here there's nothing close to it on the charts, but we did not make a lower low, which shows the bears are struggling.
The target from this pattern is pretty crazy and sits around $18200. I'm not sure if we will get down that low, but the 21 week EMA is just above that area and I think the old ATH will act as very strong psychological support. If we do make our way to the target, id expect bounces at the levels highlighted (which are also where I would scale out (see TP1)), like we have seen the past 2 days, some of which were around 10%.
Volatility is still redlining and will have to come down at some point, which would imply sideways with a slight upwards skew. I've not been able to find a stretch of PA with volatility sustaining this level, so in not sure how to use that. It could mean that due to its mean reverting nature the more it prints red the higher chance we contract and slow down for some time, or it could be a warning as it shows that the market is still going crazy. Maybe its all the new investors who don't have super strong crypto hands pulling funds back out?
I've adjusted my risk due to this huge divergence and the volatility. If the R:R was not 1:4.58 and I didn't have a spot position that I do not touch, I probably would not take this trade. Since I do, its basically a hedge on any further downside.
Trade Details:
Entry - $30769 On retest of neckline after breaking through. If the retest moves back above the neckline, depending on the signals at the time I may add on slightly.
SL - $33125 Reasonably big to avoid any stop hunts ruining the fun.
TP1 - $26500 / $24000 / $22600 I will scale out of the trade on the way to the target at the levels in-between.
TP2 - $20000 I don't think we will go lower then the 2017 ATH and I prefer to take profit before the pattern target.
ETH heading for retracement?Ethereum has an extended run up with no corrective wave.
Ascending wedge forming with price contracting, logically there should be a break to the downside from here - I have marked the highest level of resistance.
I will set a pending order here (risking 1-3%) and I will just hold this position for years. I think Crypto assets, like the S&P500, will just continue to increase in value over a 10 year period. We're only at the start of their growth.
CLEAR DOWNTREND WHICH STARTED JANUARY 3RD (3 validation points)Please go ahead and hit that like button for me if you appreciate the content I bring to the crypto trading community 👍
As you can see in the visuals above (TA) we've started a downtrend just after Q4 (quarter 4) ended in 2020. I think that big investors wanted to have significant results in terms of % gains over the total year and in most cases Q4 is the most important Q. Now that we've entered Q1, it's the perfect time for bitcoin to start a downtrend and print the macro yearly low (which could be printed by the end of Q1 imo)
We'd have to get a breakout above $32,920 for things to gain momentum to the upside again, in other words if you're in a short position I'd place my s/l right above this level for maximum ROI % gains.
Please leave a comment if you have any questions, also I've created a 2000 words trading guide, "Yurlo's Trading Guide" would you guys be interested if i released it to the public in 2021? It features TA (technical analysis), trading psychology, risk management, market structure, and trading rules. All of these categories are very important to know in depth and detail, however some of the wisdom included only stems from losses and gaining insight on how to outperform the subject next time.
UPWORK is a Great SHORT OpportunityNASDAQ:UPWK
UPWORK was a major benefactor from the lockdowns earlier in the year, beating their most recent earnings by +59%. Although I do like the business structure of UPWORK and thing long-term this company will scale immensely, I also think that this most recent run was driven by the euphoric earnings beat.
From a technical standpoint, the 200 Day SMA is all the way down at $15.50 and has gone untested for quite sometime, meaning a mean reversion may be due. We also broke out above that red rising trend line and never retested it to become proper support.
My downside target is $22.50 which would put us right at the retest of the rising red trend trend line (almost like its really important). Although my downside target is $22.50, the risk of $15.50 isn't too farfetched to consider a true possibility.
Good luck and be safe.
- PennyBag
analysis NAS100Hello traders, sorry about the delay, been going through personal issues. Now I'm back and better currently.
We here to talk is the market is making pullback AKA retracement before moving to the upside of the market. Doing these times you would think the market will be currently crash for a long while but surprisingly the nas100, US30, and SPX are doing good right now even along the run-off election.
I have provided entries and targets and patterns for you guys. Feel free to messages for the free group chat helping you to success the path of your trader experience. Never give up! Thanks for reading! Have a Blessed day!