Options Blueprint Series: Protective Puts for Market DefenseIntroduction to Protective Puts: Safeguarding Your Investments with Options
In the ever-fluctuating world of finance, protective puts emerge as a strategy for investors aiming to shield their portfolios from unexpected downturns. This options blueprint series delves into the intricacies of protective puts, presenting them as a pivotal component in the arsenal of market defense mechanisms.
Understanding Gold Futures
Before we navigate the strategic utilization of protective puts, it's essential to grasp the fundamentals of Gold Futures traded on the COMEX exchange. Gold Futures are contracts to buy or sell a specific amount of gold at a predetermined price on a set future date. These contracts are standardized in terms of quality, quantity, and delivery time, making them a popular tool for risk management.
Contract Specifications:
Contract Size: One Gold Futures contract represents 100 troy ounces of gold.
Point Value: Each point move in the gold price equates to a $100 change per contract.
Margin Requirements: Initial and maintenance margin requirements vary (currently $8,300 per contract), providing leverage to traders but also increasing risk.
Trading Hours: Gold Futures trading hours extend beyond the traditional market hours (currently 23 hours of trading per day), offering flexibility to traders across the globe.
In addition to standard Gold Futures, investors and traders can also consider Micro Gold Futures as a more granular tool for their trading and hedging strategies. Micro Gold Futures represent 10 troy ounces of gold, offering a tenth of the size of a standard Gold Futures contract. This smaller contract size allows for greater precision in position sizing, making it easier for individual investors to tailor their investment strategies to their specific risk tolerance and market outlook. Micro Gold Futures follow the same trading hours and quality standards as their standard counterparts, providing the same level of liquidity and access but with added flexibility.
These specifications underscore the liquidity and accessibility of both Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures, making them attractive instruments for a diverse range of trading strategies, including protective puts. The addition of Micro Gold Futures to your trading arsenal can offer more precise control over your investment exposure, enhancing your ability to implement protective measures like puts effectively.
Implementing Protective Puts with Gold Futures
The protective put strategy entails purchasing a put option for an asset you own, in this case, Gold Futures. This approach effectively sets a floor on the potential losses should gold prices plummet, while still allowing for unlimited gains if gold prices soar.
This graph illustrates the payoff of a put strategy. Combining such outcome with a Long Gold Futures Positions would present a loss limitation below the put option's strike price, reflecting the insured nature of the investment against significant downturns. Conversely, the graph indicates the potential for unlimited gains, minus the cost of the put premium, as gold prices rise.
Why Use Protective Puts?
The allure of protective puts lies in their ability to provide a safety net for investors, particularly in the volatile realm of Gold Futures trading. This strategy is akin to purchasing insurance for your portfolio; it's about preparedness, not prediction. In an unpredictable market, protective puts are a testament to the adage, "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst."
Cost of Protection
The cost of purchasing a put option, known as the premium, is the price paid for downside protection. While this cost can impact overall returns, the premium is often viewed as a reasonable fee for the insurance it provides against significant losses. Savvy investors consider this cost an investment in portfolio stability and risk management.
How Protective Puts Work
Understanding the mechanics of protective puts is crucial for effectively employing this strategy in the context of Gold Futures trading. This section demystifies the process, guiding investors on how to leverage protective puts for market defense.
The Mechanics of Protective Puts
Purchasing the Put Option: The first step involves buying a put option for the Gold Futures contracts you own. This put option grants you the right, but not the obligation, to sell your futures contracts at a specific strike price up to the option's expiration date.
Choosing the Strike Price: The strike price should reflect the level of protection you desire. A strike price set below the current market price of the Gold Futures offers a balance between cost (premium) and the degree of protection.
Determining the Premium: The cost of the put option, or premium, varies based on several factors, including the strike price, the duration until expiration, and the volatility of the gold market. This premium is the maximum risk the investor faces, as it represents the cost of protection.
Scenario Outcomes:
If Gold Prices Fall: Should the market price of Gold Futures drop below the strike price of the put option, the investor can exercise the option, selling the futures contracts at the protected strike price, thereby minimizing losses.
If Gold Prices Rise: In the event that gold prices increase, the protective put option may expire worthless, but the investor benefits from the rise in the value of their Gold Futures contracts, less the cost of the premium.
Implementing Protective Puts in Your Portfolio
To effectively implement protective puts in your investment strategy, consider the following steps:
Assess Your Risk Tolerance: Determine the level of downside protection you need based on your risk appetite and investment goals.
Select the Appropriate Put Options: Choose put options with strike prices and expiration dates that align with your desired level of protection and market outlook.
Monitor the Market: Stay informed about market conditions and adjust your protective put strategy as necessary to align with changing market dynamics and investment objectives.
Scenario Analysis: Protective Puts in Action
Let's explore how protective puts would work out in the current Gold Futures market scenario.
In a bullish market, where Gold Futures prices are rising, the protective put option may expire worthless, but the investor benefits from the increase in the value of their Gold Futures contracts. The cost of the put option (the premium) is the only loss, considered an insurance expense against downside risk.
In a bearish market, Gold Futures prices decline. If the price falls below the strike price of the put option, the investor can exercise the option to sell the futures at the strike price, thus minimizing losses.
In a market where Gold Futures prices remain relatively stable, the protective put option may expire worthless. The investor retains ownership of the futures contracts, which have not significantly changed in value, losing only the premium paid for the put option.
Considerations and Best Practices
Cost-Benefit Analysis: Weigh the cost of the put option premiums against the potential benefits of downside protection. Protective puts are an investment in peace of mind and should be evaluated as part of a broader risk management strategy.
Diversification: While protective puts offer specific risk mitigation for Gold Futures, consider diversification across different asset classes such as WTI Oil Futures, Yield Futures, etc. and strategies as a comprehensive approach to portfolio risk management.
Conclusion
Protective puts are a powerful tool for investors in Gold Futures, offering a methodical approach to safeguarding investments against adverse market movements. By thoughtfully implementing protective puts, investors can achieve a balanced portfolio, characterized by reduced risk and preserved potential for growth. As we move forward in our Options Blueprint Series, the importance of a disciplined approach to risk management and strategic planning cannot be overstated in the pursuit of investment success.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Downsideprotection
How to set-up alternatives in your portfolio to dampen volTo start off, diversification is an investor's best friend and most handy tool. When thinking about long-term investing or even if you are a day trader trying to protect all your gains without just sitting on the sidelines, one must implement alternative investment strategies in order to stay afloat and provide some stability to their portfolio.
To do such a thing, I would have 5 to 15% of your overall account value in cash ready to place these hedges. I will list 4 options to improve your portfolio's downside protection with #1 being the least risky and the most highly recommended for all types of investors, #4 being the riskiest and only recommended for those with large risk appetites.
1. A market-neutral fund:
This is a fund that tries to hedge risk with an investment mix consisting of short and long positions. I would suggest this to every single investor no matter your risk tolerance. I suggest a 5% position. BTAL is a good option that I use. If you have mutual funds, CVSIX is the way to go.
2. An income-generating alternative fund:
This is a fund that not only employs an alternative strategy but also pays a monthly dividend to allow for you to make new moves each month, padding other positions that have reached new lows as the bearish market conditions and turbulence continues. Now mind you, this is still giving you exposure to big holdings that have downside potential but you are in it for the dividends and strategies outside of equity. I would suggest a 5% position. JEPI is the best option, OUSA is the second-best in my opinion. JEPI sells call options in its strategies allowing for additional horsepower on the downside without you having to be monitoring a put or call option constantly.
3. Inverse ETFs:
These are ETF's that are inversely correlated to the overall index. When the market zigs, these zag. For example, SPXS is 3x leveraged to the downside of the SPX while SQQQ is triple leveraged to the NDX, so when the index is down 1%, the etf is up 3%. I would only suggest 1 to 2% in each of these. I would avoid shorting the DJI because the average yield of the Dow Jones is still safe in comparison to the 10-year treasury bill.
4. Selling Calls against existing holdings/buying puts
If you have holdings you really like but do not want to get rid of, you can sell call options against them. You have to have at least 100 shares for each single contract you sell. This is much more advanced and is only recommended to those who are savvy or fearless. Essentially, you say "Sure, if this stock hits this price, I will sell you my 100 shares at that price". The higher a strike price of the call that you sell, the less premium you will collect because the probability of it actually reaching that price is much lower. So for instance, if you bought 100 shares of a stock at $20, and it's now trading at $30, you sell a call at the $35 strike price for those $100 shares for $50 bucks; now there's two ways this plays out. (1) the stock hits the $35 strike and you get $3,500, locking in a $1,500 gain on your stock ($20x100=$2000) or you can always chose to buy it back if you think the stock is still going higher. OR (2) you collect that $50 bucks upon expiration if the stock doesn't hit $35.
Buying a put would be to profit from a stock going down; so for a really easy example, a put on the QQQ would be extremely similar to buying the inverse etf SQQQ because in both scenarios, the investment vehicles go up when the Nasdaq goes down. You essentially are placing a bet that the stock is going down. The nice thing about this is you don't have to put up a 100 shares as collateral for each contract and that your loss is predefined. So if you buy a put option expiring April 1st on the QQQ for $150, you max loss is $150 bucks. On the other hand; the market crashed and the option hit in the money; you could be looking at anywhere from 100 to 600% return. This in turn is used as dry gun powder on that terrible red day; same with your other alternatives. They can be thought of as placeholders of your buying power for when the sh*t hits the fan. What's worse than seeing a firesale day full of top-notch opportunities and having no buying power? Nothing. Be very cautious with buying puts and even more cautious with selling calls.
I'm still long the market! Btw if you want to play the DJI which should outperform the other two major indices; check out UDOW for 3x and DDM for 2x leverage. Happy trading
S&P 500 could check back to 3,700 levelSPX could correct all the way to the 3,683 level, which is the 100-day moving average on the daily chart. 200-day MA would be the 3,466 level, but I don't think there's that much air in the market.
The last 3/4 times the SPX has hit the 100-day MA on the daily chart it has bounced back. Seems the probability is higher than it falling below.
P.S. you can protect the downside of the S&P by using SPXS, which is triple leveraged to the downside of the S&P. So if you see the SPX begin to freefall again on bad news or the 10-year treasury yield surging higher again, it might be worth a trade.
This is not investment advice, always do your homework, and gauge your risk properly. Be careful out there traders, cheers!
Here is a chart of SPXS compared to the SPX on a 15m chart.
The nasdaq has a slight bubble, protect the downside with SQQQThis is not investment advice, do your own homework and evaluate how much you can tolerate risking.
SQQQ is triple leveraged to the downside on the QQQ, which is the ETF that directly tracks the NASDAQ. As 2021 has begun to play out, it has become more and more apparent that these overvalued tech and software companies are out way past their skis in terms of multiples.
SQQQ provides the perfect protection to these lofty tech stocks as VOLQ is not available on most platforms. VOLQ is the NASDAQ's Vix, which would be my preferred way of protection for the downside but unfortunately is not available for trade on the brokerages I use.
So essentially for every 1% that the QQQ (proxy for the NASDAQ:NDX ) falls, SQQQ rises by 3%. Since it is so heavily inversely correlated, it makes for a great hedge.
When implementing a strategy such as this into your portfolio, I would recommend starting with a meager 1-3% position and no more than 5%. Another solid alternative strategy that is a good permanent piece of a stable portfolio is a market neutral fund.
use BTAL as a form of protection and stability.BTAL combines a strategy of going long on low-beta stocks and shorting high-beta stocks. It is a market-neutral strategy that helps to balance a portfolio. A 5% position of your overall holdings in a market-neutral is a good rule of thumb.
It is a very simple and easy way to give your portfolio downside protection without having to worry about selling calls or buying puts. It is something that should always be a part of your portfolio, so don't shy away when you see red! Beef up the position or top it off when it's down. It will hit $27.85 again when the market has its next drop. It is actively managed and a 5 star Morningstar fund the last I checked.
Basically, when the market goes down, this goes up. It acts as a buffer for your portfolio.
Long Kingfisher - strong fundamentals and down-side protectionAmazing stock that has started to rally 10% since new CEO has been appointed.
The stock had dropped from a few years support due to under-performance by previous CEO. The stock is ready to pick-up again and reach the old support channel.
The stock has strong down-side protection. The real estate of the company is valued almost as much than the current market cap while no debt. Therefore, even in the very worst case you keep huge part of your money. However, the up-side is huge a recent sum-of-the-part valuation indicated that the stock should fundamentally be worth 2.5x current share price