Downtrend
USD/JPY- Correction Phase with Potential TargetsThe main trend for USD/JPY is down, but the price is currently in a correction. We expect the secondary trend to continue. In the H1 timeframe, the wave structure suggests a higher high is likely.
Target areas:
T1: 141.64
T2: 142.28
H4 Target: 143.04
Stop Loss: 140.30
TOTAL Market Cap Faces Rejection at $2TCurrent Market Activity: This morning, the TOTAL market cap was rejected at the $2T level, the top of the range, and has begun retracing, potentially testing the bottom of the range at $1.85T once again.
Key Levels:
Top of Range: $2T (Rejected)
Bottom of Range: $1.85T (Potential test)
Previous High: $2.25T (Late August)
Bearish Signals: TOTAL has not created a higher high since reaching $2.25T, suggesting that the higher timeframe trend remains to the downside. A break below $1.85T could lead to a retest of the $1.7T level, which was last tested in early August.
Market Outlook: Watch for a decisive move at $1.85T for clues on the next direction.
#CryptoMarketCap #TOTAL #MarketAnalysis #SupportAndResistance #Downtrend #Bearish #Crypto #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis
EURUSD - Technical Analysis [Long Setup]EURUSD
The current trend is bearish but a bullish divergence exists on the RSI indicator. Also, double double-bottom bullish reversal pattern is formed. Let's wait for confirmation. If it breaks lower high then we are in a bullish trend.
Trade Plan
Entry Level = 1.10551
Stop Loss = 1.10302
TP1 = 1.108
TP2 = 1.1105
Thats two lower highs for NVDA...What is next???
NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:VIX
NVDA: A Looming Breakout or Breakdown?
Nvidia (NVDA) has been on a rollercoaster ride lately, with its stock price exhibiting significant volatility. The recent formation of a lower high and a potential lower low suggests a downward trend may be in the works.
A key support level lies around $98, marked by trendline support that held firm on February 21, April 22, and August 5. If NVDA breaches this level, it could signal a short-term reversal of the uptrend.
Analyzing the 30-minute timeframe, we see a recent break below a bearish pennant, indicating further downside potential. If this bearish scenario unfolds, a price target of $85-90 seems plausible.
Interestingly, this price target aligns almost perfectly with NVDA's 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If the stock does indeed reach this level, it could present a compelling buying opportunity.
However, the broader market may face challenges if NVDA's downward trajectory continues. Recent economic data, such as weaker job openings and rising unemployment, suggests a deeper market correction might be on the horizon.
While the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at its next meeting, a larger-than-expected reduction could trigger market panic.
The next few months promise to be exciting, and this period can offer opportunities for significant wealth creation. For now, I'm waiting on the sidelines, patiently observing the market's dynamics.
Remember, Warren Buffett's recent moves are a testament to the importance of following the market's trends rather than blindly fighting against them.
QQQ falls back into bearish territoryQQQ past breakouts above shows it was false by selling off in a massive way with strong volume
Failed to hold above new support downward trend
Failed to hold above major horizontal support line
closed with hammer candle on high volume. This last item we dont expect to be a major turned around point back to bull. It should just be rise back up horizontal resistance before selling off again
Comparing with SPY we see that it has now for the first time broke its flat trading today and break below key support with strength. The confirmation between the indicates the bears are back in control
SPY indicating more selling to comeSPY Today pulled back much further than anticipated after the volume price exhaustion on Friday close. We have now broken below key support and into bearish territory
A pullback was expected today due to volume spike on friday close during a rally
Sell off proved to be more severe and broke below key support
Final trading period gave strong hammer candle with high volume
Hammer candle indicates reversal from downward trend
Due to firm break out I expect a bounce up to new resistance line followed by more selling off.
Originally thought we were experiencing pullback in time from SPY with it trading flat. It appears now that it was a longer term distribution phase before selling occurs.
USDJPY 1H Big Push-Down is Coming !?!?
USDJPY 1H local trend might start pushing down alongside with the strong down-trend at higher timeframes, after the green 1H supply zone has been reached today.
For that to happen, we need a downward confirmation signal Break of Structure(BOS) to emerge first, which is at level 144.229. Two rough scenarios have been drawn on the chart, we need to be patient for the BOS in order to seek Short opportunities later on. This push can potentially go to the Daily low targets at 141.684 or 140.249 (seen clearly on Daily chart).
The "Caution Level" at roughly 145.645 indicates a potential trend reversal signal once it's broken, new USDJPY analysis will be made at the time.
GBPCHF Down Trend ChannelGBPCHF is currently making lower lows, signalling a bearish trend. It recently hit the 50% retracement level on the daily timeframe and is now approaching significant resistance around 1.12500, near the upper edge of the channel. The price has been consolidating since April but has since broken out of that range. The market is now pulling back to retest the lower boundary of the former consolidation zone. This could be a classic breakout-pullback-continuation pattern. The last two daily candles are doji candles, indicating market indecision. If the price breaks below the lows of these doji candles, we could see an impulsive move down, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The target is the support level at 1.09875
BTC at Risk - Death Cross Signals Potential Drop!Welcome to another analysis, where I dive into the latest developments with BTC and explore the potential paths ahead.
I'm becoming increasingly bearish on BTC following the confirmation of a "Death Cross," where the 20- and 50-day moving averages have crossed below the 200-day moving average. This pattern is often seen as a strong indicator of a bearish reversal and the start of a new downward trend.
Historically, when we experienced a "Death Cross" in January 2022, BTC dropped from $50,000 to $15,000 per coin. While there have been instances where BTC recovered after a Death Cross, given the current pattern of lower highs and lower lows, coupled with the ongoing uncertainty and volatility in the stock market, I believe the bearish scenario is the most likely outcome.
Although I'm long-term bullish on BTC, it might be time for the cryptocurrency to take a breather, potentially allowing altcoins to take the spotlight!
Be sure to follow for more updates like this! I also post daily on X: @PuppyNakamoto.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Is the crash here?Throughout all of social media and YouTube I've been seeing many people panicking if weather or not we have topped and should start selling. One thing that I've learned predicting mayor world events is to: always play it on the safe side when dealing with uncertainty. Instead of shorting the market, I prefer reducing my exposure, as short trades are extremely risky, and I've personally learned that the hard way. It is true that price action is now at an infliction point. With a vast amount of stocks entering a downtrend in such a harsh manner. It is not hard to see why everyone is panicking. Do I think this is the crash we've been waiting for? Perhaps it is, but I can't tell with certainty because even tough price is over extended, it does have a lot of structure supporting it.
The reason we are at an infliction point is due to the price action reaching the 25MA which many times is used as support or resistance and going below this threshold would for sure confirm a downtrend and with my Mean Returns indicator the story is the same. We are seeing a loss in momentum after having a very bullish push in the last years.
With all the recent news in the U.S. election, it is fascinating to see the market react to these mayor events. These do change the scope of how the market should behave, as a lot of uncertainty has just been introduced to the U.S. population in general. This lack of knowing what the future hold in store is what I believe to be the driving force of this recent downtrend. Combined with increasingly worsening economic fundamentals is what will give us the crash we are waiting for. But before making a decision on how to trade, it's important to consider all possible outcomes. Which is exactly what you can see in the graph. Where I've marked what different price action would mean to the economy and the market in general, as well as setting a trading plan for all of these outcomes.
This type of panicking is what leads me away from using stop losses. People panic and push prices violently. However, many times the analysis was correct from the start but hitting a stop loss gets you to close your position prematurely. That's why I define several entry levels and dollar cost average since the beginning. Using an equation to determine how much should I invest, at which levels to determine the correct amount of exposure to avoid missing out and to always have a favorable average price.
8.3.2024 Platinum Weekend Pre Market AnalysisIt's the weekend. I like to go out to my larger charts and clean off the entire chart and start analyzing the instrument for next weeks trading.
We know that price is going to move up or down from where it currently is located, so we just need to make up a game plan to trade it..
Looking out at the 4 hour, 1 hour, and 15 minute charts for our trend and target analysis. Then dialing it down to the 3 minute or 15 minute to look for an entry!
AUD-USD Potential Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-USD is trading in a
Downtrend and the pair
Is consolidating beneath
The horizontal key level
Of 0.6580 so we are
Bearish biased and we
Will be expecting a
Further move down
Sell!
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USDCHF 1H Chart: Rebound might halt as Downtrend Trendline near.Current Situation:
The USDCHF is exhibiting a downtrend on the hourly chart. Recently, the pair has rebounded and is now approaching a critical area where the downtrend trendline intersects with the resistance level at 0.88800. This confluence of resistance factors could present a strong selling force, potentially halting the current rebound.
Technical Analysis:
1. Downtrend Trendline
2. Resistance Level 0.88800
Fundamental Analysis:
1. Upcoming US FOMC Meeting: The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is imminent. While a rate cut is not widely expected, the tone of the speech—whether dovish or hawkish—could significantly impact the USDCHF pair.
2. Market Concerns:
- Dovish Tone: If the FOMC's communication suggests a dovish stance, indicating potential rate cuts in the future, the USD could weaken & cause USDCHF to drop.
- Hawkish Tone: Conversely, if the FOMC adopts a hawkish tone, indicating a preference for maintaining rates, the USD could strengthen.
Conclusion:
Traders should closely monitor the USDCHF as it approaches the critical resistance zone around 0.88800. The combination of the downtrend trendline and the horizontal resistance level presents a significant hurdle for the pair.
Additionally, the upcoming FOMC meeting adds an element of uncertainty, with the potential for market-moving announcements. The prudent approach would be to look for signs of rejection at the resistance zone for potential short positions, while also being prepared for a breakout scenario should the FOMC deliver unexpected news.
DJT falls on stratospheric valuations SHORTDJT, the Trump media company, had a massive run up after the DWAC merger only to fade and
fall with the SEC filing showing minimalistic revenue and negative earnings. It moved up in
meme fashion but is now falling as fundamentals come to light. In five months the namesake
will be able to sell if there is any remaining value. In the meanwhile, the board will likely
refuse an early sell permission because that would like cause a " long squeeze". DJT is a good
short right now no matter the locate and carry fees which are very high. I was long DWAC
and am now short DJT using the profits from the merger volatility. Selling volumes are rising
showing the longs are beginning to get squeezed. The relative trend indicator shows
a strong move down.
Down Trend continuation on XAUUSD - NOT A TRADE IDEAThis is my idea on the market currently , had a losing trade this morning, then hope in on a 1:3 RR trade that went smooth, and as we are confirming the downtrend continuation we can trend the correction and then go into the continuation from the last FVG on 5min.
I am not taking these trades marked but I want to check if the strategy is working outside of the time frame usually trading on, then let's market up and see how does the market react tho the following key levels
First Key Level was 2454.358 area we saw a good reaction from that Leve
Next Key Leve is 2459.921 area, let's see if it will be touched and if so , market will move into the downtrend direction.
this is my POV on the market 18/7/2024
PS : going today with a +1% , while still on a 2.7% drowdown :D