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Downtrend

BTC forming a PURRfect structure!BTC following the sleepy KATATA Cloud (created by WhoIsWu). Expecting 2022 to be generally a Downtrend year, a few factors contributing to this: Institutions Geopolitical uncertainties Supply Chain woes Work from home trend Inflation (fiat) ...and a million other reasons. I've covered a few targets in my previous ideas, like BTC heading to 33K and then some, targets are still valid. 33K to 30K is a strong Support channel. There's a lot of talk from governments launching/testing CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) this year. I'm not sure what that means for BTC, but fingers crossed, we'll see 12.5K. I'll give you a moment to process that. Institutions plan for long term, that includes the institutional Short sellers. A brutal selloff is very possible, BTC has done that a few times. I trade shorter timeframes, 4H, 1H and 15M. But I always set trend on a 21H chart, and favor going Short. Whatever the future holds, a few rules I never break: #1 Setup on Multiple Timeframes #2 Always set Stop loss and Trailing-Stop #3 Never Leverage over X3 #4 While in trade, I'm glued to the screen #5 Don't chase ❤️ If you enjoy my ideas, Please like/comment, it means a lot, Thank You! ❤️ Have a Laugh! Not trading/investment advice BINANCE:BTCPERP COINBASE:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT FTX:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT OKEX:BTCUSDT OKEX:BTCUSDTPERP
by WhoIsWu
4
BTC's Downtrend Cannot Reverse While Sellers Remain in ControlPrimary Chart: Linear Regression Channel, Fibonacci-Derived Price Target, and Two Long-Term Anchored VWAPs Many crypto enthusiasts have called for a bottom at the various lows in the BTC's downtrend over the past year. At each of the major lows, eager dip buyers swooped in and tried to pick a market bottom. The major swing lows in this bear market in BTC have occurred in December 2021, January 2022, February 2022, May 2022, and June 2022. Each low likely was considered as the bottom (a final low) by investors who pounced in to buy or averaged down on already losing positions. Some savvy traders may have identified extreme oversold conditions in crypto markets at each of these lows and traded a 5-20 day rally to make a tidy profit, and such short-term traders are beneficiaries of the sharp bear rallies that have occurred. More patient short sellers have also benefitted from the bounces if they waited until overbought conditions materialized to position bearishly. The linear regression channel shown on the Primary Chart shows how each interim bear-market low has been followed by a rally back to the top of the regression channel. Once there, investors who had hoped the trend had reversed of the most recent lows were once again disappointed. How many more lows will disappoint the long-term bulls? No one knows. But the odds are stacked heavily against dip buyers for anything more than short-term rallies from extremely oversold lows at downtrend support. Both long-term VWAPs shown on the Primary Chart reveal that the average buyer is now underwater. This means sellers remain in control. As long as sellers remain in control, and as long as downtrends remain intact, it's a low-probability bet to hope for major trend reversal—traders, however, who can remain disciplined and follow technical evidence without letting their biases interfere too much, may make handsome profits as price reaches new lows only to sharply rally back to downtrend resistance. The longer-term VWAPs should be evaluated closely on the Primary Chart. They are both in dark blue. Note that this downtrend has caused price to break below both longer-term anchored VWAPs—one of which is anchored to the pandemic lows in March 2020, and the other of which is anchored to August 2017 lows. Price has paused at each of the long-term Fibonacci retracements measured from the pandemic lows on March 13, 2022, to all-time highs at $69,000. Over the summer, when BTC has rallied it has shown support at the long-term .786 retracement level at $17,792.10. But at the other major retracements, price paused for some time and tested and retested before a break of the level occurred. Price has already tested this $17,792.10 level before bouncing back above it. The next time this area is tested, it should prove weaker. Supplementary Chart A: Long-Term Fibo Retracement Levels It is possible that price is forming a giant corrective A-B-C zigzag (or WXY pattern involving multiple zigzags) from the all-time high. Elliott Wave can be tricky, and multiple wave counts can remain valid simultaneously. Additionally, Elliott Wave counts can continually evolve as price action disproves some wave counts while opening up the validity of other alternatives at the same time. At this time, however, the entire downtrend can plausibly be viewed as a 3-wave move at the largest degree of trend, thus an ABC or WXY corrective pattern. Supplementary Chart B: ABC or WXY Elliott-Wave Corrective Pattern from All-Time Highs with Price Target where Two Declining Waves Have Equality or Near Equality If this is true, price could likely find a low near the 1.00 to 1.272 projections of wave A. More specifically, this means that larger-degree wave C equals the larger-wave A x 1.00 (the same numerical distance between waves A and C), or it means that the larger-degree wave C = larger-degree wave A x 1.272 ($2,292.48), another common relationship in zigzags that is considered nearly equal as well but with a Fibonacci proportion adding a twist—this is a long way down from current levels, but remains a possible EW interpretation. In the meantime, it makes sense for experienced traders to continue to view the short side (at stronger resistance levels) as the higher probability trade. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
165
Five Long-Term VWAPs for BTCPrimary Chart: Five Long-Term VWAPs for BTCUSD with Fibonacci Price Target SUMMARY: BTC continues to consolidate and chop in a tight range around $19,246 since mid-September 2022. This range is from $18,232 to $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move to the upside or downside has failed, confounding directional bears and bulls alike. A longer-term trading range has also been in effect since June 2022. This longer-term range can be identified as between December 2018 and March 2020 VWAPs—$17,929 to $25,486. Or a simple horizontal channel can be drawn at the highs and lows from June 2020 to October 2022, which gives virtually the same range. This 5-month range aligns to some extent with the recent month's price action, which has been in an even tighter range around the $19,246 level. Price could easily test the longer-term VWAP from December 2018 in the coming weeks. This VWAP lies at $17,929. Price could easily test the longer-term VWAP from June 2017 in the coming months. This VWAP coincides with the Fibonacci projection at $12,184 discussed as a viable target since summer 2022. Over the past four to five weeks (over a month), BTC has consolidated around the $19,246 level, which is a Fibonacci level of interest discussed in SquishTrade's prior BTC posts. For example, the following post (and its excerpt quoted below) analyze the specific trading range and how the breakout moves to the upside and downside have failed: "BTC has chopped above and below this $19,246 level quite a few times, forming a tight consolidation range between and $18,232 and $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move has resulted in a bear or bull trap that fails to follow through with a sharp reversal back to the opposite side of this level." Here is the chart posted previously showing the failed breakouts and breakdowns: So the longer-term VWAPs can help place price action in perspective. Like other indicators, they cannot be considered a crystal ball or guarantee. They just help show the broader price environment over a longer term, which can provide a little clarity. 1. The primary trend remains downward. The VWAP anchored to the all-time high remains sloped downward and well above the current price. The average buyer since the all-time high remains well under water. See the Orange VWAP on the Primary Chart. 2. Price remains under the March 2020 anchored VWAP (shown in pink) which is anchored to the pandemic-crash lows. This positioning is bearish. But this is somewhat offset by price trading above the December 2018 anchored VWAP (shown in green). Price is stuck between these two in a sideways range since June 2022. A breakout move to the downside remains a high risk. This sideways action in between these longer-term VWAPS is analogous to the price action in the past month (mid-September to mid-October 2022) showing chop in a range from $18,232 to $20,225. 3. Price remains above the longest anchored VWAPs from the 2017 low and the 2011 all-time low (using all available BITSTAMP data. Price could easily test either of these VWAPs in the coming months given the strength and severity of the downtrend from all-time highs. From a longer-term perspective, these VWAPs can be helpful to watch. 4. The measured move using Fibonacci projections results in a target of $12,184.72, which has been discussed in previous BTC posts. Supplementary Chart: Measured Move using Fibonacci Projections for Targets SquishTrade still thinks the $12,184.72 target is viable especially given that price has not reversed the primary downtrend since November 2021. BTC has shown some relative strength compared to other risk assets (e.g., equity indices) by trading in a chop range sideways while the other assets have plummeted in the past month. But until BTC can change the structure materially to at least an uptrend at the primary degree of trend, it remains prudent to assume the current downtrend should be favored to resume at the primary degree of trend. Note that this Fibonacci projection aligns loosely with the VWAP anchored to the June 2017 low with a value of $13,604.01.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SquishTrade
9
GBPAUD I Potential short from reversal zoneWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **GBPAUD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
15
AAPL's Four-Month Triangle May Be BreakingPrimary Chart: AAPL's Four-Month Triangle with Various Trendlines and VWAPs SUMMARY: AAPL's longer-term charts show a symmetrical triangle arising from the convergence of a down trendline from January 2022 (dark blue) and an up trendline from March 2020 lows (also dark blue). This triangle appears to be in the process of breaking on arithmetic charts. When considering that long-term trendlines don't break easily, price may retest or whipsaw above and below this long-term up trendline (from March 2020 lows) two or more times before the line can finally break decisively. The first major level of importance below this 2020-2022 up trendline is the VWAP anchored to the 2020 lows. This VWAP lies at approximately 127.61 today. On a logarithmic chart , this VWAP coincides with a longer-term up trendline in the coming 2-4 months (see Supplementary Chart B below). This is probably the most conservative downside target if the bear market continues to pressure prices lower. Another anchored VWAP from the January 2019 lows is approximately at 102.45. This level coincides with the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally starting at the Covid lows, which equals 102.71. See Primary Chart. But before discussing these levels around $102-$103, price must first break through the .50 retracement of its 2.5-year rally from March 2020 to January 2022. The .50 retracement lies at $118.02 . Another long-term up trendline from the January 2019 low appears on the Primary Chart in light blue. This even longer-term trendline coincides with the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally off the Covid lows and the VWAP anchored to the January 2019 low. If this long-term trendline is tested next year in January or February, it would be about $102-$103, the same level as the VWAP from the January 2019 low and the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally—where the yellow circle appears on the Primary Chart. Could this be where AAPL puts in a lasting bottom at 102-103? This analysis will briefly cover some of the broader and longer-term levels for AAPL. If the downtrend continues as it has, and the macroeconomic and interest-rate environment remains challenging for equities, AAPL may reach the levels identified. AAPL's four-month triangle has formed from the convergence of two trendlines: (1) a downward-sloping trendline from its all-time high to the present (dark blue) and (2) an upward-sloping trendline from the pandemic-crash low in March 2020 to the present (also dark blue). On an arithmetic chart, AAPL appears to have violated this multi-year upward trendline in recent days with a couple closes below the line. One interesting perspective on the 2020-2022 trendline appears on a logarithmic chart. AAPL has shown a more decisive break of this 2020-2022 up trendline, which appears as an orange line on this Supplementary Chart below: Supplementary Chart A: Logarithmic Chart with Upward Trendlines from March 2020 low and January 2019 Low But when multi-month triangles like this break, and when multi-year trendlines like this break, it should be expected this could be a process rather than a quick event, assuming the trendline is valid. In part, this is because multi-year trendlines and multi-month triangles do not break and dissipate easily. The lower trendline of the triangle pattern is a multi-year trendline from the Covid lows to the present. Price does not always just break right through such an important level. On occasion, it can slice right through a level deemed consequential and long-term. But often when encountering a very important longer-term level, price can tag it, then break it repeatedly in both directions, whipsawing above and below the line a few times before following the ultimate direction it will take. Or it can break the line and then retest it from underneath a couple times as well. Levels of importance below this trendline are the VWAP anchored to the March 2020 low. The anchored VWAP from this 2020 lows is shown in light red. Currently, that VWAP lies at $127.61, but this can change over time due to the dynamic nature of VWAP calculations. Because it is longer-term, it shouldn't change too dramatically in the coming days or weeks unless a very sizeable rally or crash takes place. Another longer-term anchored VWAP from the January 2019 lows is approximately at 102.45. This level currently coincides with the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally starting at the Covid lows, which lies at 102.71. See Primary Chart. But before discussing this 2019 anchored VWAP and .618 retracement around $102, price must first break through the .50 retracement of its rally from March 2020 to January 2022. The .50 retracement lies at $118.02 . Another even longer-term trendline can be drawn from the January 2019 low to the present. This trendline intersects with the .618 retracement early next year in January to February 2023 (see the yellow circle on the Primary Chart). This level also coincides with the approximate location of the 2019 anchored VWAP (dark purple)—the current trajectory of this 2019 anchored VWAP looks as if it may run near or through the yellow circle in the next 3-5 months. Ultimately, this is not intended to be a bold, heroic prediction that AAPL will certaintly reach $127, $118, or $102. If the downtrend structure continues to remain intact, and rallies get sold, then these are viable targets. In short, this is just a technical overview showing that these levels are higher probability targets that could likely be reached if AAPL continues the path of least resistance lower. Lastly, consider the March 2020 anchored VWAPs discussed in this post and its relationship to the same trendlines discussed except drawn on a logarithmic chart. The 2019-2022 trendline (light blue) coincides with the March 2020 anchored VWAP (or nearly does). This level will be about $127-$130 in 1-3 months. So perhaps this can be both a conservative target or a more intermediate term low in this bear. Supplementary Chart B: Anchored VWAPs Position Relative to Logarithmic Trendlines
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by SquishTrade
5
Downtrend Channel after the FEDCould it be that markets have been impatient? I think so. After watching yesterday's price action, I think the market gets the message now. Or do they? I need to see capitulation before I see a rally. But we're getting close. I've been thinking that the VIX needs to get to 40 or 50, and THAT would be my capitulation. So if that happened...what...we would get to 3000? 2900? I mean, it could happen in the coming weeks. Or maybe we just follow the downward trend line slowly for the rest of the year and no Santa Clause Rally? Remember the scene in the movie "The Perfect Storm" with George Clooney, where the sun starts poking in through the clouds of the hurricane, giving the fisherman a sign of hope? And then the dark storm clouds covered the sun, destroying the hopes briefly had. That's what happened yesterday. Plan for the day: I'll watch the market throughout the day to determine if I should continue to add to my short positions. The market may need a couple more days to digest yesterday. I really don't think anyone is going to want to hold anything over the weekend so if the selling continues today and tomorrow, that would not be good for the week to come. If we continue to go higher, 3970ish, 4010ish will be the area for me to watch closely. Either way, stay disciplined, be patient, trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
The trend is your friend!Hi guys, This is @CRYPTOMOJO_TA One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities. Consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange. I post short mid and long-term trade setups too. In this chart, we will present some basic information about the bedrock of technical analysis – the trend. Technical research is founded on one main assumption: market prices move in trends as they are freely traded. Traders and investors hope to buy a security at a low price at the outset of an upward trend, ride the trend, and then sell the security at a better price when the trend stops. While this technique is straightforward, putting it into effect is incredibly difficult. Trends come in all shapes and sizes, from long-term patterns that last decades to short-term patterns that emerge minute by minute. All trends tend to have the same characteristics. Investors must choose which trend is most important for them based on their investment objectives, personal preferences, and the time they are ready to spend watching market prices. Trends are obvious in hindsight, but ideally, we would like to spot a new trend right at its beginning, buy, spot its end and sell. However this ideal almost never happens, except by luck. What exactly is a trend? 1. An uptrend or upward trend occurs when prices reach higher highs and higher lows. 2. A downtrend or downward trend is the opposite: when prices reach lower lows and lower highs. 3. A sideways or flat trend occurs when prices trade in a range without significant upward or downward movement. From the investor/trader’s perspective, a trend is a directional movement of prices that remains in effect long enough to be identified and still be profitable. The most popular method amongst traders to identify a trend is looking at a graph of prices for extreme points, tops & bottoms, and drawing lines between these extreme points. These lines are called trend lines . By drawing lines between tops and bottoms we get a „feeling” of the direction of price movement, rate of change of movement, and also its limits. When those limits are broken, they can warn us that the trend might be changing. Another method for the study of trends is the moving averages which smooth out and reduce the effect of smaller trends within longer trends. The number of trend lengths is unlimited. The ability for trends to act similarly over different periods is called fractal nature. When we say that the trends are fractal in nature we mean that in any period we look at we see trends with similar characteristics and patterns as each other. The trend length of interest is determined solely by the trader’s period of interest. This doesn’t mean that different trend lengths should be ignored. Because shorter trends make up longer trends, any analysis of a period must include an analysis of longer and shorter trends around it. Trends are determined by supply and demand . As in all markets, whether apples, oil , or used car components the economic principle of interaction between supply and demand determines prices in trading markets. Each buyer bids for a certain quantity at a certain price and each seller asks for a certain quantity at a certain price. When the buyer and seller agree and transact, they establish a price for that instant in time, whatever the reasons might be for the buyer wanting to buy and the seller wanting to sell. The technical analyst, therefore, watches the price movement and the rate of change of prices and doesn’t concern himself/herself with the reasons for the transactions because most times they are indeterminable. The number of players and the number of different reasons for their participation in supply and demand is close to infinite. Thus, for the technical analyst, it is futile to analyze the components of supply and demand except through the prices it creates. Furthermore, when someone invests or trades the price is what determines profit or loss, not corporate earnings or Federal Reserve policy. The bottom line is that the price determines success and fortunately, for whatever reason, prices tend to trend. Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
Education
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
3
DXY I Short-term Short from Resistance Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **DXY - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
TVC:DXYShort
by BKTradingAcademy
2