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Downtrend

AMD's False Breakout above Short-Term TrendlinePrimary Chart: Down Trendline from November 2021 to Present and Several Anchored VWAPs Recent False Breakout above Short-Term Trendline After hitting a new low on September 29, 2022, AMD had a brief a rally off the lows . This led to a brief break above a shorter down trendline from August 4, 2022 peaks (light blue down trendline) Now, AMD looks to have faked out the bulls and bottom pickers again. Before the close, AMD's price sunk all the way back to the trendline, perhaps just below depending on how exactly it is drawn, after seeming to push decisively above it. After hours it sunk well below that trendline again with preliminary earnings results that were well under expectations. Notice the daily candle from October 6, 2022. Some technicians call this a Pinocchio candle or bar. It has a long upper shadow that pushes above a key level, but the shadow being the only part of the candle above the key level by the close of the price bar. For another example for purposes of comparison, consider AMC's most recent short squeeze (which was smaller than many others in the series of short squeezes it has seen). Here, AMC formed a extremely large Pinocchio bar that effectively signaled the exhaustion and reversal that ensued. That one worked exactly as expected. A Pinocchio price bar shows up when the bar breaks temporarily above a level of resistance and then falls back below it. It also can appear when the bar breaks temporarily below a key support level, and then reclaims that level by the close of the bar. Essentially, a Pinocchio bar is a failed breakdown or failed breakout that occurs within a single price bar. Some basics of Pinocchio bars follow below for those unfamiliar with the term: Martin Pring, a technical expert, writes that these bars "give a false sense of what is really going on." Pinocchio bars tend to create bull or bear traps depending on the direction the long upper shadow points. Failed upside breakouts, such as the one shown here on AMD's chart, lock in unwary bulls with a loss by the close of the bar. Shorts similarly get stopped when intraday bars pierce well below support and then whipsaw back above that support by the close. In Martin Pring's technical-analysis reference books, he explains that the "false break" that develops is "indicative of exhaustion since the price cannot hold above the strong resistance reflected by the line ." In short, like the character Pinocchio's nose that grows when he lies, the price move beyond the resistance / support ends up being a false move, and the bigger the false move, the bigger the lie. Just because price is in a severe downtrend does not mean that prices can behave irrationally. How many sharp and powerful bear rallies have occurred so far in this market, especially in beaten down laggards? For example, price could go down and retest the lows and then rally up to high $70s. Or it could make new lows, and then rally hard back up to a key Fibonacci level, such as the .382 or .618. Until price can start exceeding major swing highs and lows, and its down trendline, it's not a great candidate for bull-trend trading or investing. Additional Comments and Considerations Not long ago, stocks like AMD and NVDA were some of the hottest technology stocks traded in the world. They had become veritable market leaders not just in their innovative technology products but also in price leadership. In terms of relative strength, AMD and NVDA both spent plenty of time at the forefront of one of the most powerful bull markets in history (funded by extra liquidity and easy-money policies of central banks) from 2020-2021. But then the cracks started to appear in what otherwise appeared to be some of the most formidable stocks on the planet. Major indices began to roll over not long afterwards. AMD has not gone unscathed. Its downtrend is not difficult to see with the clearly demarcated lower highs and lower lows. On the Primary Chart, note the orange down trendline that has contained price since November 2021 peaks. VWAPs confirm the view. The dark blue VWAP is anchored to the all-time high from November 30, 2021. It's hard to imagine that there was quite a lot of liquidity on that day, with a number of buyers paying that price at the very top, at $164.46. It can be a viable strategy to strategically buy stocks that have been hitting new 52-week highs showing extraordinary relative strength, but this time, buying at the all time high didn't work out so well for some. How many times have traders and investors started eagerly buying the dip in this bear? The chart tells the tale. Quite a few major swing lows, with candles having a nice long lower shadow, appear AMD's YTD chart. Each rally may have made a nice trade for nimble countertrend traders, but for investors hoping they caught the low of a pullback, or even better a multi-year low, disappointment ensued. AMD's days of heroic market leadership along with NVDA continue to be a distant memory as continues to fall to new lows. Should anyone be a knife catcher and hope to have a multi-bagger in 10 years? That's a question for your financial advisor or your own due diligence if you're fundamentally oriented. But from a technical perspective, a lot has to change with regard to the structure before it's safe to buy. Jesse Livermore had a fantastic adage that applies well to this situation, which was recently published by @InvestMate in an Editor's Pick here on TV: “Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.” Credit and thanks to @InvestMate for reminding everyone of these timeless truths to help in trading and understanding markets.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by SquishTrade
6
Shooting Star Formed on Weekly Basis Good Day , Hello Traders, Chalet Hotels formed a Shooting Start on Weekly Basis and it able to cross a major resistance. As of now, it may come down and test the levels for 355 and 333. Chart Self explanatory Time Frame : Weekly Disclaimer : I am not SEBI registered analyst, this is for educational purposes. Please trade as per your risk and do consult with your financial advisor before taking any trading decisions.. If you really like the analysis , please do comments, LIKE and Follow me.
NSE:CHALETShort
by Piscean17th
BTC MAY BREAK DOWN ANY TIME SOONHello Traders, Looking at my BTC Chart very closely right now only from a daily perspective, all i see is possible breakdown and I get the chart speaks for itself. I will be paying close attention to the rectangular down trend (Orange) just to watch out for any breakout above it but for as long as the down trend is not invalidated and the we see a closure below the supply zone... i will look for a good entry to short BTC to to Between $13,745 - $14,000 in the immediate. Trade carefully and with proper risk management. Regards
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Olajireolapoju
2
GBPJPY: Asscending Broadening WedgeWe will be looking for a 3rd, possibly 4th tap of the resistance. Appying the 1% rule to this trade, i will split my overall into 2 trades. ... 1st trade will be the 3rd tap with a 35-40pip S/L.> as GBPJPY you will want a bigger S/L as it moves faster and most spreads reach for S/L's.... 2nd trade will be the possible 4th tap of the resistance, to hopefully get adn even better entry, Presuming the price will break out of the wedge to the downside. Another thing to consider is GBPJPY's impulses. Ive been noticing 90-110 pip impulses. the most recent impulse was 260 pips. Although the impulses have been this big, this next impulse to the downside will be the length of the LOWEST point near entry of the ascending broadening wedge, and will go as far as the HIGHEST point within the wedge. I will set my T/P the distance FROM the breakout of the wedge equal to whatever length the wedge ends up being. I expect the wedge to ascend around 100pips from the ENTRY point LOW. . Therefore, i will hope to pick up 100Pips before closing out all of my positions. Of course closing half of each position at 50pips wihtin that move. This is NOT financial advice! This is my OWN Speculation of GBPJPY at this given moment. Hope you enjoy!~
Short
by lodose81