SHORT GBPUSDGBPUSD has been making lower highs and lower lows in a downward channel move.You can short now untiil the .618 retracement and close for a profit there, then I think If that trendline breaks, it will retrace back from .618 fib levelto retest the broken trendline before going down again.Trade at your own risk
Downward
Valeant Pharma: Moving back downVRX may, at first glance, look like the bloodshed is over and is moving to recovery. Not just yet. The daily MACD and StochRSI are inching toward sell indicators (see screenshot) and despite the markets upward movements today (Mon 12/14), VRX's recovery was pretty modest as more shareholders exit as they see the fall incoming.
Bottom line: Put options are a possability for short-term holding if you have the risk appetite. If you don't, then definitely wait to buy (back) in if you have been considering it. If you're holding this in hopes of shaving some of your losses or bought thinking it was recovery time, sell. Sometimes the most profitable thing you can do is take a loss.
VRX's financials aren't bad by any means, but they're product pipeline is pretty weak. Consider Addyi, the "female viagra": in the first month on the market only 224 rx's for it were sold. The market is very narrow since it is only considered safe in post-menopausal women who don't drink and think its pretty dramatic side-effect profile is worth the risk. VRX has even hired on a crisis-management firm in response to antipicated F.T.C action in regard to their pricing practices.
Valeant should have never reached as high as it did and now the correction is coming. VRX has been around a while but thier $31bln market cap is absurd. They have a price to earnings of 54(!), an earning per share <$2, and still have a fairly high debt-to-assets ratio. Compare those stats to Shire who is $38bln but have an earning per share of $15, and a price-to-earnings of only $12.21.
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: UTX IN MACRO UNCERTAINTY, ON SHORT TERM RISKUnited Technologies in a very risky situation...
On long term basis price is trading between 10-year and 5-year means. Price close to macro means is actually an outlier, an indication of uncertainty of major market participants and investors regarding the stock.
On short term basis price is currently on downward risk, as it trades below the 1st standard deviation form both 1-year mean and quarterly means - at 98 and 89 respectively - indicating downtrends on yearly and quarterly basis basis.
MACRO VIEW: MICEX IN USD RISKS ANOTHER BREAKDOWNRusian MICEX index, measured in US dollars is on risk of another severe breakdown.
Price is now currently trading at a key level - converged lower 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means (@ 24.75)
If the level is taken out, price will be open to fall to its relevant lows @ 23
and If those are broken down, next target would be 18.5 - the 2014 lows, reached at the peak of USDRUB December spike
BTC - short term bullish, medium term bearishIt looks as if we are still in wave III of a larger downtrend.
There is a possible short term bullishness towards 232-240. If we reach nearer >235 it could mean a short wave III, followed by a shorter wave V to 210-200 area.
If we hit <233 ish before continuing down we could be into wave (3) of the larger wave III, which would end around 160.
This may be a very quick process, as a breach of 212 could cause a panic sell-off.
A break of 240 would mean a re-assessment.
These are just my ideas and I don't claim to be an expert (far from it, quite a newbie), so please do not take them as given for trading purposes. I am happy to receive constructive feedback though.
p.s. please ignore the position of V, this is not literal and should be lower.
There is downside room in margin to 105-middle ?Yesterday,rebound from "BuyZone-D" and suppressed in the neck.
And attacked low, closed under 107.
From the fact that it was closed at the hidden-line firmly in Daily, I think biase of today downward.
Since a strategy of looking that not fill previous the hidden-line in 4-Hours, If exceed 107.40 / 50 level, I doubt "return" once.
The movement of yesterday to pay attention is "Movement Y".
It was bought by "BuyZone-D", but the motion was denied it.
From this movement, I see the zone of sell at 107.25 / 40. ("SellZone-D")
Look to "RELATED IDEAS".
If you press daily level, there is downside room in margin to 105-middle.
Of course, I don't think fall as it is...
June is the Bullish Pennant This month looks like it COULD possibly form a Bullish Pennant along the downward trend line that is most notably found on BTCE.
I've been making my attempts at day trading but have failed a few trades, so I've decided to take a step back to my long term strategies and continue there where my skill set is better suited.
If you're new to trading feel free to do some reading:
www.trending123.com
This could go on into July, however I'd like to believe that we should finally break this downward trend line on news by the end of the month.
StochRSI is low and signaling buyers. However, it has done this during the downtrend before and been really deceiving. I don't trust it anymore.
MACD is in the green and crossed over awhile back (uptrend)
RSI is at 53.92 so we could go either way which leads me to believe more consolidation.
RVI is 63.31. which is about right considering the "volatile" consolidation.
Stochastic is bottoming here which is a good sign signaling that we're going to see some buying to push us out of the triangle.
Our 15EMA is closing in on the 50MA which previously during the downtrend performed well with my shorts in signaling when to sell. In this case we're in the opposite scenario where it should be signaling us to buy as the EMA closes in on the MA.
The safest trade is to wait for a breakout above the downward trend line and go long, however if you're into trading smaller time-frames attempting the pennant's price movements may be for you.
GLTA.
History Has A Way of Repeating ItselfThere are a great many oscillators that seem to be either entering or in OVERSOLD mode now. UO has not been giving any divergences but we can still look at its OB/OS signals it gives.
What I initially noticed when firing up this chart was that I swear it was a Deja vu (god TV when can I post the correct way to write Deja vu?) that I swear the way the market had moved that it was back in March that I saw this pattern. Well when I went backward in time it did indeed have about the same pivotal movements that it did then as it is now.
The way that ATR is dying I would assume the market is ready to breakout. Which way? It would seem that it wants to go up since this downward trend keeps ATR going lower and lower meaning less support.
The line that you see was from a chart I made a while ago and surprisingly it has bounced off it several times. No, this is not the log trend line, but either way it is showing me that this line actually does need to be taken seriously. Need to stop and look at it because it hasn't been broken.
Targets:
Bull: 450
Bear: 420
Time: Give or take 3-4 days due to low volatility. Can occur sooner if there is some increase buy/sell pressure.