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DOW TOP PREDICTIONThis super cycle EWT & Fibonacci analysis is showing me that we are approaching the top of the quantitative easing/money printing pump. Nearly all of the EWT theory rules apply, and the fibonacci levels are scary accurate. The top of the fibonacci retracement is a projection in this case but the accuracy of the previous trend levels with the fib retracement indicates the top in this analysis. We also have the 2.618 fib multiple within the exact same price range as the projected fib retracement top, which would make sense to be a turn around level on this macro trend. The top is projected at 36,500-37,500 which is also just before the massive psychological level of 40k, which could suck in retail participants to put the cherry on top of the crash sunday. Also as an additional flavor, the MACD is at record highs, and we just saw a confirmed cross this is more significant than the ones previously seen in the past 2 years. I have sold 35% of my holdings, will be selling an additional 15-20% at 36,000. Look out below...
AMEX:DIAShort
by craig_percoco
A Troublesome Outlook for Stocks SPY on 1 Month. In the last 12 Years we have seen 8+ Corrections Occur after a Doji Candle has formed on the One Month Chart. According to Investopedia "A doji candlestick forms when a security's open and close are virtually equal for the given time period and generally signals a reversal pattern for technical analysts." I have pin pointed 12 moments in the past 12 years where these candle formations have lead to a correction. (Not all Doji candles are perfect, the main detail I am looking for is an Open and Close that are virtually equal) All percentages were tallied at close of each month not wick. October, 2007 % Lost: 53% On October, 2007 a Green Doji Candle Formed, after that candle formed a green candle didn't form for the next 5 months, and the market fell over 50% for the next year and a 1/2. April, 2010 % Lost: 16% On April, 2010 a Green Doji Candle Formed, over the next 2 months the market saw a major correction of 16%. Now what is different about this correction compared to the 2008 crash is that volume was below the average at least 3 months prior. AVG 5.7B, ACT 3.9B. Now this is a trend we will see prior to the corrections in the future. April, 2011 % Lost: 18% On April, 2011 a Red Doji Candle formed, over the next 4 months the market fell 18%. The Volume 3 months prior was below the average, AVG 4B, ACT 2B. A new trend that we will see from here on out is that the bottom occurs around the 55 EMA line. April, 2012 % Lost: 9% April 20, 2012 a Red Doji Candle formed, over the next month the market fell 9% right around to the 55 EMA. The Volume 3 months prior was AVG 4.2, ACT 3B. Below Average. April, May, July, 2015 %Lost: 10% These 3 months each had a Green Doji candle leading up to a market correction of 10%. Which Lasted 7 Months, and two wicks ended around the 55 EMA. The volume was below the average at AVG 2.3B, ACT 1.9B. September, 2018 % Lost 15% On September, 2018 a Green Doji formed, for the next 4 months after the market fell 15%, and a wick landed right around the 55 EMA. The Volume 3 Months before was AVG 1.6B, ACT 1.3B. January, 2020 % Lost 23% On January 2020 a Red Doji formed, over the next 3 months the market fell 23%, and closed on the 55 EMA. At its peak the market fell 33%. 3 Months prior the Volume was below average Rectangle Future Outlook: The Last Two Months have been shaping up like the 7 corrections previously stated. 4 out of the last 5 months have been below average AVG 1.8B, ACT 1B. with TWO GREEN DOJI CANDLES FORMING. Not to mention the Market going up 40% in the last 15 month, Rates Expected to raise soon, Inflation expectations increased drastically, the Fed Artificially Stimulating the market (possibly easing up soon), 6 Trillion+ being printed in one year (possible 3 trillion more soon) Things are not looking good for the stock market. We all need to face the fact that a stock market crash/correction is coming. The average of the last 7 Doji Corrections is 14%. If The SPY drops 14% it will go to $360. The Last 6 Corrections have ended on or near the 55 EMA. if the SPY falls that far, it will fall around 28% to $303. Only time will be able to tell what happens next, but things are not looking good. What do you think.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Walkerwc2
7
4-digit Dow (DJIA) - SHORT; Let the (long!!) descent begin!As the ol' southern colloquialism would have it: "Darn theng (The Dow) is fixin' to be done foh, rat cheer, right about naw!"... And this where the Long March (to < 9999) bound to start, rather sooner than later. (There is also a perfect Fib. Time Cycle lurking in the background. - Look closely!) If one is afraid to Short the index outright, no problem! - You're in luck. Just (continue to) SHORT the DJIA/Gold Ratio that is already well on it's way, still with miles and miles to go (down), with no end in sight. Here is that post;
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
10
East vs. West; The Nikkei will obliterate the Dow!!... And that's without even the currency differential factored in! (... which should add an additional +8%-13% to the down-side.) This spread currently sits right at the Quarterly Pivot. As it stands, under even the most unlikely circumstances (worst case scenario) this spread, the Short DJIA / Long Nikkei225 , is a 4.5:1 R/R trade. A trade that anyone should take, especially if one finds oneself being forced to stay long equities - for some inexplicable reasons. The Weekly;
TVC:DJI
by Nemo_Confidat
Gold-Copper Ratio, (very) LONG; This WAS the top of equities ...... most likely. Let's reason for a second. (Despite all the noise out there.) The title chart is the Monthly Gold/Copper Ratio, e.g. is very powerful. (It does not tend to turn on a dime!) This has just completed the month of Jan. 2021. 1) It has finished the month by completing a Bullish Hammer, bouncing off of the (very) round number / level of 500; 2) It did so exactly at the 78% retracement of the March 2020 highs - i.e. Pandemic equity lows; Then, instead of continuing down (equities continuing to rally) it did turn "on a dime" and finished in a Bullish Hammer - raring to go higher, i.e. equities lower. 3) As of this moment, the above picture, provides one with two distinct possibilities. a) That massive (Monthly!!) Bearish Deep Crab is going to bear down it's target at the - very - round 1000, e.g. sending the SP500, Dow and Nasdaq to a better than >65% Decline; (Most likely!) b) This ratio is going to trace back, close to the March, 2020 highs - Pandemic Equity lows - where it's going to reverse and rise, once again. I.e. The test of the March, 2020 equity lows are going to hold. Either way, the significant take away here is this; Unless these most recent Equity Index highs are taken out very soon - e.g. with this next month - Equities are headed strait to test the March, 2020 lows, where the obvious question remains: Will those hold? Have a nice day and stay short equities! Here is the Weekly chart;
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
Dow Sell position active. Target down to 24k area where we seeDow Sell position active. Target down to 24k area where we see I have been playing harmonic setups, Dow short sell downto 24k would be nice for a stop and reverse last one worked well as it approaches a double 76.8% support area. Current trade I have a hard stop above 27150 incase some spike before heading my work... R.R makes sense for allowing for such r.r (for me). any way this is my own drivvle and dont expect anyone to follow my stupid advice!! to be reading it just my own opinions of lines on screens
U
by TopCatofPeckham
Trump Said It... The BIG "V" (DJI)🤔 Will the stock market drop or fly high... Let's take a look! What is the big V pattern and what does it represent? I want you to focus on the structural support that we have drawn out connecting the 3 green arrows bottoms. This is a very key level of support that we want to take very seriously! We are all aware of the massive market selloff that we had in early 2020. We found a major level of support around 18.5k and then rebounded to run up towards 27.5k. The big v can also be considered a cup pattern which is a bullish pattern to show that the bulls are in control as we continue to print higher lows. But, let's keep in mind that patterns can change and do not always go according to the textbook of what It represents. Next let's look where our most valuable piece of historical structural data was developed at. I have circled it in red. You can see that this was an area during the selloff where we had some relevant form or an impulse to try and push the market back up. We want to correlate that piece of information with where price sits at now. As of now we have attempted to breach above that structural top where Resistance was at that ended up crashing the market back down. Their is a saying where old support and old resistance can do the opposite and act as the opposite later down the road. Support and Resistance is a very critical thing to understand when trading any market! This is a 3 hour chart as I am taking a more aggressive approach to play a short here at 26,990. We are getting early signs of a Crossover from red candles developing to Crossover the green line below. We want to see it travel towards 26,919 as that is the level of the historical top to see if it acts as new major support to push the market higher. If I wanted to long the dow jones I would look to play the breakout of 27,451. I will be applying a stoploss here of 1.72% on this short. Risk management is also a very important concept to understand when trading the market, probably the most important! If we break 26,919 next we will want to look to travel towards the cups green arrow major support level to see how that holds. Look for a textbook Crossover strategy play there or hold if the candles stay red and push through it. The next level on the way down would be the 2 green levels I've drawn out in the range of 25,000-24,600 to see if that old Resistance acts as new support. As of now let's not get carried away and not hink too far ahead. Let's play the current range and walk with it. I hope that I've helped you learn something today! 😁 If you would like to get training on how to trade the markets with our custom strategies and Indicators, then please consider checking out our website below! We wish you the best and will stay updated on this one! 🥇MLT | MAJOR LEAGUE TRADER
TVC:DJIShort
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
Dow makes HH, but 55 ema is the secret to retesting the lows!We broke downward out of the rising wedge so beautify. It looked like the top of the B wave was in until price decided to make a HH, which may be a potential bull trap. If we can range between 22k - 24k, my EW count will still be in check. A break below 22k will confirm my count and I expect to see many bears entering here. Another wave up would launch us to the 200ma/ema. Will monitor closely to see if we break either direction!
TVC:DJIShort
by danborovik