DOW JONES Channel Up Double Bottom. Solid buy entry either way.Dow Jones (DJI) is rising following a vastly oversold 1D RSI reading (reached even 23.60) at the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up. Based on the RSI pattern itself, we can draw comparisons with the December 2022 - March 2023 correction. According to that the 1D RSI has one more Low to make before it bottoms and that bottom will be leg (e). This will justify the emergence of a diverging Channel Up (dotted), where leg (e) will be its Higher Low while also completing a symmetrical -9.30% decline from the top.
Still, the price has dipped well below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was March's bottom formation, thus either entry is equally probable. As a result it is best to buy on both levels so that a low risk indeed opportunity won't be missed. Our target is 35000, which is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level as well as Resistance 1.
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Dowsignals
DOW JONES Approaching a critical Support cluster.The Dow Jones index (DJI) has broken below the long-term Higher Lows trend-line and has transitioned into a Channel Down. The current Lower Lows leg is approaching not just the bottom of the Channel Down but more importantly the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). The latter in particular provided a Double Support Bounce on (June 01 and May 25) and hasn't been broken since March 29.
We are waiting for the first 2-day green 1D candle streak in order to buy and target (at least) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Projected contact at 34450 (target). The 1D RSI has hit the 34.80 Support, which provided the bounce on the August 24 bottom.
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DOW JONES Strong bullish leg within a Bullish Megaphone.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us a strong bottom buy signal 8 days ago (see chart below):
On today's idea we look at the 1H time-frame, which offers a buy opportunity for quick 1-2 day profit as the index is on a strong bullish leg within a newly formed Bullish Megaphone. Based on the 1H RSI which turned overbought and the 1H MACD which just formed a Bearish Cross, this sequence resembles the August 28 - 31 fractal and we could be on a similar position as on August 30.
That was the final consolidation before the bullish leg made its peak on Resistance 1 (35100). Due to the Bullish Megaphone, this time it can go a little higher, so today's buy position targets 35150.
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DOW JONES 1st 1W Bullish Cross since 2016. Can we see 42k next?Dow Jones (DJI) is forming this week the first MA50 (blue trend-line) / MA100 (green trend-line) Bullish Cross (when the former crosses above the latter) on the 1W time-frame since September 2016 (assuming January/ February 2021 was flat due to the COVIC flash crash).
This on its own is a major long-term buy signal, especially since the 1W MA50 has been supporting since March. As you can see the 2022 - 2023 price action is very similar to the 2015 - 2016 sequence. Both fractals started on a Bear Cycle under Lower Highs, which bottomed after marginally breaking below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The new Bull Cycle was confirmed after the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line and turned it into a Support being formerly a Resistance. The 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross signified the bottom. Notice how even the 1W RSI and 1W MACD fractals are identical with their respective Higher Lows.
It appears that Dow is currently past the initial Channel Down and on the Circle pattern, which in 2016 was the final consolidation before a hyper aggressive rally that topped in January 2018. Before that top it reached the 1.5 and 1.786 Fibonacci extensions.
We treat the current pull-back as the last opportunity to buy this upcoming rally while the price is still that low. Having relatively low expectations, we expect to see at least 42000 (1.5 Fibonacci) by the end of Q1 - start of Q2 2024.
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DOW JONES Last buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) got rejected on August 31 on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and that made the price pull-back. We are now close to the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) again, which is where the initial rebound started on August 25, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
This is the final buy opportunity on this pattern, as any closing below it would be a pattern invalidation and the trend would change to bearish on the long-term. Key to this, is the formation of a 4H Golden Cross, which could be only 4-5 days away. The last such formation was on June 09 and as with the one that preceded that, it will be a bullish signal.
We will wait for either a new 1D MA50 test or a completed 4H Golden Cross in order to buy with the lowest risk possible. Target 1 will be 36000 and Target 2 36900 (just below the All Time High).
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DOW JONES sets course for the All Time High in the next 2 monthsDow Jones (DJI) held its 1D MA100 as Support and as projected on our analysis last week (see chart below), it formed a Higher Low on the 5-month Channel Up and rebounded:
We now move to the 1W time-frame where this week's 1W candle is so far the strongest since July 17 and already recovered the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). After completing the standard -4.70% correction to the Channel's bottom, the norm within this pattern is to first post a +6.15% rise and ultimately complete the Higher High with a +9.00%. As a result, our short-term target is 36100 (+6.15%) and by the end of October 36960 (+9.00%), which is the All Time High since January 2022!
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DOW JONES Buy opportunity after strongest correction since May.Dow Jones (DJI) is consolidating under the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 5th straight day and is doing so near the bottom of the 5-month just above the 1D MA50 (green trend-line). The latter has been intact since June 02, so technically we are at a very strong Support zone. In fact August's decline so far has been the strongest technical correction since May.
The lower buy confirmation will come after the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, but you can also take the break-out buy signal if a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 first. In any case, our bullish target is 36300, which would represent a +6.13% rise, the minimum rise % since the Channel Up started on March 15.
If however the 1D candle closes below the 1D MA100, we will take a quick sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 33800. Upon successful hitting of the target, we will add the 2nd buy position and use it for a longer term target at 36900.
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DOW JONES The Inverse Head & Shoulders no-one is talking about.The Dow Jones (DJI) index remains within its 5 month Channel Up pattern that started in mid March and recently hit its top. What the majority of the market is missing is a stronger pattern on the wider 1W time-frame. This long-term chart shows that an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern priced its Head (bottom) when the Channel Up started and completed the Right Shoulder on the first week of July.
As a result, the aggressive 3 week rally that followed is a natural consequence of the completion of that pattern, similar to the October - November 2022 rally that led to the start of the IH&S. Such patterns can technically target as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level, which sits just above the 36975 All Time High. As the 1W RSI is bounce on a Pivot level (formerly a Resistance), we have more reasons to continue to be bullish in this market and target first the 35900 Resistance and ultimately the ATH at 36975, potentially all within the boundaries of the Channel Up.
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DOW JONES getting closer to Resistance Zone for a technical sellIt's been a while since we looked into Dow Jones (DJI) and made the bottom buy on the Channel Up last Higher Low (chart below):
Right now the index is rising after a rebound on a Double Bottom on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The dominant pattern is a Channel Up and the secondary a Diverging Channel Up (dotted lines) that forms a Higher Highs rejection zone within Resistance 1 (34530) and its top. We will look for a sell on the next candle inside it (ideally with the 1D RSI on its Resistance Zone) and target the bottom of the Channel Up at 33650 near Support 1.
If however the price breaks above Resistance 2 (34950) and the MACD maintains the Bullish Cross it is forming today, we will open a buy and target 33500 (just below Resistance 3).
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DOW JONES Small pull-back possible but bullish long-termOne and a half month ago we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down:
Right now the index is trading inside a shorter term Channel Up that is technically aiming at the 34900 Resistance, which is the December 13 2022 High, as part of its Higher Highs process. If however the 4H MACD currently completes a Bearish Cross, it is more likely to see one last pull-back below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (33600) before the next rally.
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DOW JONES Potential Head & Shoulders and invalidation level.Almost a month ago we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down:
Right now, we see an emerging Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is a technical pattern typically formed on market tops. The key now is the 4H MA100 (green trend-line). A closing below it, will most likely accelerate the pull-back towards Support 1, in which case we will target 33330.
A 4H candle close above 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) will be a bullish break-out signal and should invalidate the H&S pattern, targeting first Resistance 1 and Resistance 2 in extension, in which case our Target will be 34500.
Note the the 4H RSI has been inside a Channel Down since April 04, thus a big Bearish Divergence when compared to the price's Channel Up.
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DOW JONES Broke above the Channel Down. Nothing can stop it.Almost a month ago we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down:
The price has hit our medium-term target and zooming out into the longer term horizon we can see the grand pattern being an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S). This is a bullish reversal formation, in fact it may be characterized as the bottom formation of the 2022 Bear Phase.
The long-term target can be as high as the Shoulders Resistance, the Higher Highs trend-line. If it is inversely symmetrical to June, we can expect a +12.78% rise. This gives us a target for the next 4 weeks at 35400.
Note that if it follows the late October 2022 rally, then it is possible to give one last pull-back within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before our target is materialized.
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DOW JONES has started a rally that will amaze mostDow Jones is currently on the 3rd straight green 1W (weekly) candle above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), testing the top of the 4-month Channel Down. We have previously seen almost the same pattern during the 2015-2016 correction (E.U./ China/ Oil crisis). A fake-out below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) initiated a rebound above the correction's Lower Highs trend-line and formed a Channel Down.
This Channel Down in 2016 was nothing but a Bull Flag pattern which after another fake-out, this time below the 1W MA50, it rebounded and almost reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension with a final pull-back on Fib 0.786 that kick-started a very aggressive rally. Even the 1W RSI patterns match. Do you think that's the blue-print for Dow?
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DOW JONES has started the new bullish wave.This is basically to last week's buy signal at the bottom:
As you see Dow Jones (DJI) made a new Lower Low (bottom) on the 4-month Channel Down and broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again. The move is supported by a Higher Lows Zone (as is the RSI), similar to the previous Channel Down Low in late December. With the Fed Rate Decision tomorrow always unleashing volatility, we can see one last pull-back and then rebound towards the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and our 33100 Target.
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DOW JONES is forming a bottom, aiming at the 1D MA50 again.Dow Jones (DJI) is trading sideways for the 4th straight 1D candle on the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Down. As the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold level and rebounded, similar to the September 27 bottom, while the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crossed below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) to form the 1st Bearish Cross since that bottom, we treat this as a strong medium-term buy opportunity, targeting the 1D MA50 and 33100. We need a closing above the 1D MA50 to justify further uptrend as that level rejected the index on March 06.
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DOW JONES Don't get confused.It's starting a new multiyear rallyThis is a chart we've looked into in the recent past for Dow Jones (DJI) but amidst the recent uncertainty, we think it is necessary to refresh in order to keep things into a longer term perspective.
The time-frame is the 1W (weekly) where Dow is seen forming an Arc pattern on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which since the 2009 housing crisis bottom, has formed every time it corrected on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and rebounded (excluding of course the March 2020 COVID crash). On both of these occasions, this Arc pattern was an Accumulation Phase before a new multi-year rally.
The 1W RSI is also on a familiar pattern with those prior fractals, forming an Arc construct on a Lower Highs trend-line. Is this the final accumulation before Dow starts a new multi-year rally?
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DOW JONES Any doubt we are completely off Bear limits anymore?This Dow Jones (DJI) from the start of the 2022 Bear Cycle until today with the 2007 - 2009 (Housing Crisis) Bear Cycle fractal plotted on it. As you see up until the mid October bottom, the two sequences practically traded in an identical way. Since then however, Dow has completely diverged from the 07/09 fractal and despite the late weakness, it is hard to claim that we are still in Bear Cycle territory.
Is there any doubt we are off Bear limits anymore?
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DOW JONES This is the bottom. Fractals from 2022 confirm.Not surprisingly to us, Dow Jones has stayed inside the High Volatility region that we have identified back in late November:
The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) has supported twice already since November 10 and is now going for its 3rd hold. If we pay a closer attention to the 1D RSI we see that it has printed the very same pattern it made on all Lows during the 2022 Bear Cycle. That is basically 3 occasions. The RSI is very close to the 30.00 oversold barrier and as the 1D MA100 supports, it makes it the most optimal long-term buy level on a 2-month horizon.
Even though it has been mostly trading sideways within the High Volatility Zone, on RSI terms, it is comparable to all 2022 Lows that bottomed out on an oversold 30.00 1D RSI and started an aggressive rally in the form of a Rising Wedge.
Our Targets are: short-term = 33400 (Pivot Zone), medium-term = 34400 (February 14 Resistance), long-term 35500 (April 21 Resistance).
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DOW30- Will CPI data trigger a break and a push above 35k?After the double bottom under 29k and a break above descending trend line resistance, Dji has started to consolidate (as if it was waiting for Nas100 and SP500 to catch up, and now are all aligned:) ).
Technically, the picture is bullish and crystal clear, with a price waiting for a trigger to break above the triangle's resistance.
CPI could provide this trigger and, in such an instance, bulls could push Dow above 35k.
P.S: I don't think we are out of the woods and this optimism will last, but I've learned to now argue with the market
DOW JONES Scalping range emerged and our medium-term plan.Dow Jones (DJI) got rejected yesterday following Powell's speech as the Resistance Zone of 34300 - 34370 held (August 16 and January 15 Highs respectively), we expect it to turn neutral for a while and trade sideways within the rough 33640 - 34180 Scalping Range illustrated on the chart.
The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has assumed the role of the Pivot and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) that of the Support. Our short-term trading plan is to scalp this range for as long as the price remains/ re-enters inside it. On the more medium-term, above the green Pivot Zone we are buyers targeting 34300, while below the Higher Lows trend-line we are sellers targeting 32700 (above the 32480 Support). Similarly, we will take the buy break-out if the price breaks the 34370 January 15 High and target the 34910 December 13 High.
Keep in mind that this Higher Lows trend-line is what helped us take this accurate buy entry 3 weeks ago as you can see on the chart below:
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NDQ/DJI - Short; Significant Statistical Arbitrage opportunity!While the NDQ/DJI, itself, represents a significant trade opportunity here, even more notably, a number of the index components display remarkably skewed "Greeks"! (For example, APPL-GOOGL, CAT-PEP, TSLA-BA, etc..) E.g., It is a rather strait forward process - at these levels - to assemble baskets of stocks (Long) in each index (Short) with rather juicy, +30%-40% near term (<7 months!) profit targets.
All this is a strait forward process - once one starts looking :-)
p.s. Will provide ideas for some of these stock baskets if/as time allows.
DOW JONES A mix of patterns ahead of the Fed!The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has made a strong medium-term rise since our buy signal 12 days ago:
Still within the High Volatility region, hence neutral long-term, the price is rising today after finding Support within the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). The medium-term pattern is a Triangle, the short-term a Channel Up.
However the price needs to break above the 2 day Channel Down (red) in order to test the top of the Triangle and if broken extend the Channel Up into the medium-term to test the 34910 December High.
A break below the Channel Up, should extend the red Channel Down towards the bottom of the Triangle again.
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