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Dowtheory

NIO: Overwhelming bull trend! How to proceed?Hello traders and investors! Let’s look at how NIO is doing today! It is in a very strong bull trend, and we have two important points now: First, the support at the black line (39.74), which is a quite strong price level, as NIO retested it twice, and it didn’t close under this line at any moment. Second, we have a resistance at the $ 45.28, the previous All Time High , which seems NIO is trying to defeat right now. The 21 ema is flat, so we must wait for more confirmation, and NIO must keep above this green line for some time, because the market could see it as a false breakout , and NIO would retest the black line again. Also, the green line is a Pivot Point , that can be seen in the daily chart: Therefore, it is very important for NIO to keep above it, but the signs are all good here. Yes, a pullback would bring some opportunities, but it is quite hard to see one during such strong momentum. It seems NIO is at the second phase of its trend, the Public Participation phase, according to the Dow Theory. I never recommend shorting a stock like this, and I like to buy when it is near supports, as the R/R is better. So, now it is time just to manage positions, and look at the points mentioned in this analysis carefully. If you liked this idea, please, support it ! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses. Stay safe.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
18
S&P 500 - Waiting for Directions + Political AnalysisBefore we begin with this analysis... This time it is suited for people who are playing the long game... All ideas that are expressed are of my opinion and interpretation of the political situation. So... While the world waited anxiously to see who will become president - so did equity markets. On the technical side: A Triangle pattern has emerged on a daily chart in the S&P 500 index. This is considered a continuation pattern - meaning that if we go by classical analysis, we should be looking for a breakthrough to the upside. Our target would be the length of AB (just below 4000). We do have a bearish MACD divergence playing out On the political side: Joe Biden is a moderate democrat and this is good for the economy. Implementing a strategy to handle Covid-19 will insure the smooth function of the economy even without a vaccine (widespread testing + mask wearing). Since markets are forward looking this is probably taken into account. Despite talks of the "scary" Green New Deal, such a widespread plan could provide new jobs for people in the old and dated energy sector. (Lets not forget the the SPE has been declining for a couple of years now). Under a moderate administration the employment aspect of this will likely be reviewed heavily. To keep the people happy and voting for you you have to insure their financial safety. No sporadic tweets about tariffs means the certainty increases - Positive for markets. Even if taxes are increased, it will be marginal and only on the filthy rich. Fiscal stimulus to the MAX. On the downside: Markets might be more regulated As long as the Republicans keep control over the Senate, a Democratic administration will have a hard time passing legislation. Right now it looks like this will be the situation, but we will know for sure only in January since we have a runoff in Georgia. This increases uncertainty in the short term horizon. To sum up: I retain a positive outlook in the medium/long term since the new administration will be focused on responding to the Coronavirus and supporting the economy. However, if inflation pics up the story changes completely. Real Vision have covered this extensively - you should check them out on YouTube. If we break lower than point B without taking out point A, The market will officially enter a downtrend on a weekly basis. This is not good. The 2008 crisis started out like this (from a Dow Theory point of view) Feel free to share your opinion and happy trading!
TVC:SPXLong
by nadavhurwitz
AAPL: Next targets and Key Points!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Apple is doing today! It is resisting in a support zone (green line), which was a previous top, and now it is working as a support according to the Polarity Change . Also, it filled a Gap (blue area), and it may work as a support level as well. Any good reaction near this green line would be a very good sign . On the other hand, if AAPL doesn’t react, then it’ll just resume the bearish momentum to the next support level, the black line around $ 112.85. Now let’s see the daily chart: The green line at $ 117.85 is the most important point right now, because it was a previous top, and it worked as a pivot point yesterday, and this led the stock to fill the gap and to the 21 ema again. If AAPL trades above this green line again, the market will see this movement as a false breakout from a previous pivot point, and the bull trend will resume. The next target would be the All Time High again, especially if it triggers the Pivot Point at $ 125.39 (blue line). Also, the volume is quite low these days, as evidenced by the red arrow, and this confirms our theory that this movement is just a pullback. According to Dow Theory’s 5th Tenet: The Volume Must Confirm the Trend . A pullback with low volume indicates that it is indeed a pullback, a quick movement against the trend that usually gives great opportunities. If you liked this idea, please, support it! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses. Have a great day.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
14
TSLA: For how long will this sell-off last?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Tesla is doing today! Let’s start our study looking at the hourly chart, as usual. Yep, the $ 461 did hold the price, as it was expected, because it is a clear resistance level, and now the bullish momentum is starting to get weaker, as we already discussed yesterday. If you missed my previous analysis, the link to it is below. But this doesn’t mean the trend is going to reverse, at least not yet . This only indicates that TSLA is just going to seek lower supports, and as long as we see this sell-off on the global markets, it’ll be quite hard for Tesla to continue going up, as it follows the movements on NDX. Right now, TSLA is between the previous resistance , along with the 21 ema (which is flat now) and the next support at $ 439. It also left a gap (yellow area), which maybe is a Breakaway Gap. Let’s see the daily chart now: If the gap seen in the hourly chart is indeed a Breakaway Gap, probably Tesla will hit the 21 ema again, and the support at $ 439 may won’t be able to hold the price. On the bright side the momentum is still bullish, and there is no reversal sign on Tesla. We can expect some pullback, as the volume is still pretty low, and if the trend is going to continue, we need more volume. Remember Dow Theory 5th tenet: The Volume Must Confirm the Trend. If you liked this analysis, please, support it! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates on Tesla and other stocks! I wish you all a great day!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
10
BUY INTEL (INTC) on any dip towards the $48 support areaBy looking at the daily chart, we can see the strong bullish rally that took the price from the March 23rd lows of around $44 to the June highs at $64, for an outstanding 45% increase in just couple of months. However, the stock didn’t stay there for long as a combination of a high profit taking interest and some further selling pressure took the price down again at the end of July to the $47-48 strong horizontal support zone. Since then, we have seen a volatile and choppy sideways price action between $48-52 levels. The stock is currently sitting at the $54 mark after an attempt to make an upward break out of the above-mentioned range. However, we see multiple different and also strong resistances that are currently threatening the current bullish move. We can find the 100 DMA lying at the $54 mark and the strong horizontal resistance at $56. Today’s price action on the daily chart shows a bearish rejection candlestick, which in turn confirms the strength of the above-mentioned resistances and indicates that there might be further selling pressure ahead. This up move was anticipated as the stock built a meaningful support base around the $48 mark throughout the last couple months. However, we believe that the stock market in the US currently holds a lot of intrinsic risks - COVID-19, the upcoming presidential elections, the economic recovery etc. - which would probably mean that we could be in for a continued sideways and choppy price action in the coming months. At any rate, we our analysis shows that the uneven capital allocation across the different market sectors will continue to support the tech sector as well as the stocks in it. The large institutional investors will start looking for places to reinvest the tremendous profits that they have generated from the likes of ZOOM, TESLA, NETFLIX, Shopify etc. throughout the last 3-6 months, which will lead them to stocks like INTC! We are bullish on the INTC’s stock and believe that any profit-taking corrections would give us a great opportunity to buy the stock at a good discount. This, in turn would give us a chance to maximize our profits to the upside, once the stock resumes its uptrend movement. Furthermore, some of the technical indicators that we are monitoring closely (50 DMA, 100 DMA, Bollinger Bands, RSI etc.) are currently showing exhaustion of the recent up move and are signaling that a potential return-move to the $48-52 range might occur very soon. This will be the right time to jump on the bullish Intel train, that will take you up to the $60 mark in the coming weeks and months. Our long-term target levels are $61 and $66 respectively. Sincerely, DowExperts
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by DowExperts
6
EURUSD: What a gorgeous distribution structureSummary: a. EURUSD is entering distribution phase b. Go short when the price already break and retest the support area at 1.1755 c. Aggressive setup wait for price confirmation at the purple rectangle area 1.1790-1.1830 What's up traders? Here I provide a EURUSD analysis based on my knowledge about Dow Theory. Charles Henry Dow is one of the most influencing technical analysis at current era. He believed that "History repeat itself" (of course I do believe it too!) and as we can see that the flatten and bending price formation is a pretty obvious sign of the distribution phase and will likely start the panic selling phase that will push the price lower until it meet the support area that I believe is strong at 1.1365 area. That means we have plenty of space to act and this plan can be used for intraday or swing traders. The link to related ideas provided below, check it out! "you'll only miss 100% shots you never take" - Wayne Gretzky Disclaimer: All of the information that provided is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but they have no guarantees. Therefore, every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete. I have a very strict money management calculation and usually I trade with (max.) 5% risk per pair to ensure sustainability and equity endurance to make money in the futures market for a long-term period. Any profits or losses that occurred based on this analysis is your own responsibilities as a trader or an investor.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn11271960
TSLA: Exit strategies for Tesla [updated]!Hello traders and investors! How are you today? Let’s study the most recent movements on Tesla. As I’ve been telling you guys, there’s absolutely no reason to worry here . The trend is bullish and there’s still nothing indicating that it will change. It is curious to notice that our studies on the volume was right, and Tesla was accumulating during the past few days. A sideways movement with low volume is a characteristic of an accumulation, according to Dow Theory 5th Tenet: “The Volume Must Confirm the Trend”. Now, Tesla did a breakout from this previous ATH with volume increasing suddenly , so, the momentum continues strong as ever. As long Tesla continues doing ascending tops and bottoms in the hourly chart, the trend will continue very bullish in the daily chart as well. Speaking of daily chart: The daily chart is still very bullish, and the volume was quite high today as well. Now, exit strategies: If I were in Tesla right now, I would just set my exit point under the purple line , which is the previous resistance/top. If Tesla closes under it, just book your profits. It also almost coincides with our trailing stop technique at the previous candlestick low, meaning you can book you profits tomorrow, if Tesla loses the $ 2,142.50. So, the region at $ 2,127 - $ 2,142.50 is very important for Tesla, and we already discussed about it yesterday. Now we must see if Tesla will keep the price above this level. If it loses again this line and closes under it, then we will see a sharper pullback. But again, these are just “ifs”, and so far, there’s nothing confirming a pullback. So, no need to panic, ok? Everything here is going according to technical analysis. And of course, another good exit strategy is to wait for a bearish pivot in the hourly chart. No pivot? No need to book profits! But I believe the $ 2,127 is more important right now , as it was a previous ATH, and now should work as support. These are nice strategies to use, and I hope this analysis helped. In this case, support this idea, and follow me for more analyses! I do daily analyses, and I’m sure you’ll find something interesting around. Recent public trades (links below): XP: +30% AAPL: +10% LB: +45% UKOIL: +62% Congratulations to all of you, my dear subs, who believed in my trading methodology, and challenged the world by being a bull! We deserve to celebrate! BECOME A MEMBER! Remember to follow me , I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped. Thank you very much. * LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because: - Here, you will see clean charts; - Trades with clear risk management; - The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology; - Chart patterns with statistics. * * My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
12
SPX: New ATH! Crazy? No, just bull trend.Hello traders and investors! Let’s what SPX is doing today! We are at the ATH again (what a surprise), and what can we do next? The hourly chart is in an insane bull trend, and there’s no sign that things are going to change. Pullbacks to the 21 ema are acceptable and normal, and if I were on SPX right now, I would only book my profits if I see a bearish pivot triggered here. As long there’re no descending tops and bottoms, the trend will continue, and pullbacks are just opportunity to buy. But, if you ask me, I would prefer to buy at a pullback in the daily chart: Especially with this gap there. Would be an exhaustion gap or runaway gap? We will have our answer tomorrow, but right now, the question is in the air. If this is an exhaustion gap , we will see some correction ahead, which would be good. SPX could drop to the purple trendline, or even to the black line, which is the pre-coronavirus ATH, and the trend would still be bullish. Of course, it is all a big “if”, and since we don’t see any bearish sign around, let’s just stick to Dow Theory 6th tenet : “ Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Occurs ”. No clear reversal? Bull trend. If this idea helped you, please, support it! And I invite you to follow me for more analyses like this one. I'm here every day, to share a few thoughts with you. Recent public trades (links below): XP: +30% AAPL: +10% LB: +45% UKOIL: +62% Congratulations to all of you, my dear subs, who believed in my trading methodology, and challenged the world by being a bull! We deserve to celebrate! BECOME A MEMBER! Remember to follow me , I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped. Thank you very much. * LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because: - Here, you will see clean charts; - Trades with clear risk management; - The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology; - Chart patterns with statistics. * * My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
12
TSLA: The difference between Pullback and Reversal.Hello traders and investors! Tesla did some very good and technical movements recently! Let’s see how it is behaving now, and how to proceed. The hourly chart is showing us that Tesla is passing through a pullback , and it is now trading around the 21 ema, which is a natural support for the price, at least in the short-term. If you are aiming for the long run, there’s no reason to sell in panic your stocks, as pullbacks are expected and healthy movements. In fact, pullbacks are opportunities to buy, or to buy more/again. It is different from a reversal sign, as the volume is decreasing during the correction. This is one of the main characteristics that differentiate a pullback from a reversal. According to Dow Theory 5th tenet, " The Volume Must Confirm the Trend ", and when we see a movement against the major trend, which has low volume, most likely it is just a pullback, because the volume isn't confirming the trend. But the high volatility may bring some erratic movements in the short-term, but nothing that changes the bull trend. We would need much more signs to see a reversal on Tesla. Right now, we just filled the Exhaustion gap in the hourly chart, and as it is usual, every time Tesla does an Exhaustion gap, it gets filled in a few days, and we see some sideways movement next. Let’s see if this pattern will repeat again! Now, let’s see the daily chart: If you are following my exit strategies for Tesla, you would’ve booked at least half of your profits yesterday, because yesterday’s candlestick closed under the previous candlestick low. This is trailing stop, and an intelligent way to manage your positions. Also, see how the volume always decreases during the accumulations, and rises after the explosion. Right now, an accumulation would be good and expected. In fact, Tesla could hit the purple trendline and the trend would still be very bullish for the stock. But since the trend is too strong, we can’t rely too much on this scenario. I believe that Tesla could hit the 21 ema, or even the redline (previous top) before the next explosion (of course, if the next explosion will happen). My recommendation here is to not panic, ok? There’s nothing indicating a reversal, and some volatility is expected now. A pullback would just be opportunity to buy Tesla, not to sell your stocks to someone who’s waiting to buy at the pullback. And if you liked this idea, please, support it! And I invite you to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses! Recent public trades (links below): XP: +30% AAPL: +10% LB: +45% UKOIL: +62% Congratulations to all of you, my dear subs, who believed in my trading methodology, and challenged the world by being a bull! We deserve to celebrate! BECOME A MEMBER! Remember to follow me , I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped. Thank you very much. * LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because: - Here, you will see clean charts; - Trades with clear risk management; - The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology; - Chart patterns with statistics. * * My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
10
AMZN: What's next?Hello traders and investors! As a request from @katgold, we will study AMZN today! And surprisingly, the situation is quite simple. We have a clear resistance at the ATH, which is the black line. But we have an upwards trendline supporting the price as well, which makes something like an Ascending Triangle chart pattern. Normally, Ascending Triangles are bullish patterns, especially in a bullish trend. Also, the volume decreased a bit in the last days, which is an indicator of a simple correction. And now the stock is going up, the volume is confirming the trend, accordingly to the Dow Theory 5th tenet. If I had to do something here, I would buy, especially if it gets closer to the purple trendline. If I were already in a trade, the stop-loss would be in the hourly chart: Since we are close to the ATH, I prefer to set a trailing stop in the previous supports/resistances zones, like this red line around 3244. If it closes under it, just book your profits. Of course, you may get out of the trade if AMZN loses its trendline in the daily chart, but I think that would requires some guts. The only thing that bugs me on AMZN is that the weekly chart is too stretched, and you can’t complain if you see a pullback to its 21 ema: But again, the trend is bullish, so, any pullback is just opportunity to buy. I see no clear targets for Amazon, but I would keep my eye open if it hits the ATH again. And I would just follow the strategy I mentioned above to keep myself in the trade if the trend continues. Nobody knows where Amazon will stop! This is my view for Amazon, and if it helped you, remember to support this idea! And you are invited to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses! Recent public trades (links below): XP: +30% AAPL: +10% LB: +45% UKOIL: +62% Congratulations to all of you, my dear subs, who believed in my trading methodology, and challenged the world by being a bull! We deserve to celebrate! BECOME A MEMBER! Remember to follow me , I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped. Thank you very much. * LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because: - Here, you will see clean charts; - Trades with clear risk management; - The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology; - Chart patterns with statistics. * * My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
NASDAQ:AMZN
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
SPX: Complete weekly study.Hello traders and investors! Since it is Friday, let’s do a complete study on SPX, by doing a nice Multi Time Frame Analysis (MTFA). Therefore, I invite you to follow me if you are new around here. Every day, after the market closes, I’ll share a few thoughts here, and I’m sure you’ll find something you like! The black line in the hourly chart is the ATH. Yes, we are VERY close to it, which is amazing! But we have a top lower than the previous top (see the red line), and this might indicate to us that the bull trend will get weaker. Of course, there’s no confirmation yet , but this would be the first sign of a pullback (if there will be one). Right now, SPX is resisting at its support at its purple line (previous bottom), and only if it loses it, we will see some pullback. Again, pullback is different than bear trend ! Pullbacks are healthy and natural movements, and since we are in a bull trend, they offer us just opportunities to buy at a better price. Let’s see the daily chart for a better perspective: The trend is extremely bullish from here too. We filled the blue gap on the left, and we are going up almost without rest. Now that we are close to the ATH, maybe we will see a pullback, and the volume decreasing might be a sign for us (red arrow). And this is normal, ok? According to the Dow Theory 5th tenet: The Volume Must Confirm the Trend . A pullback with low volume is a good indicator that the trend is just taking a rest before the next movement. Also, the 21 ema is pointing up, and it would be a natural support for the price if a pullback occurs, as for the pink line at 3280. If you ask me, even a pullback to the blue line at 3196 would be ok, but the 3280 is a more reasonable target , especially if you look at the weekly chart: Since we are way too far from the 21 ema, and the previous top around the purple line would be a natural support for the price, it is not crazy to think about it as an important support zone. Of course, we are thinking about a possibility of a pullback, and these are the targets for this scenario. The trend is bullish, and the odds are that the ATH will be defeated in the mid-term. But since nothing can go up forever without a rest, we can work with this scenario. And of course, support this idea if you liked it (which is probably the case, otherwise, why would you still be here?). Recent public trades (links below): XP: +30% AAPL: +10% LB: +45% UKOIL: +62% Congratulations to all of you, my dear subs, who believed in my trading methodology, and challenged the world by being a bull! We deserve to celebrate! BECOME A MEMBER! Remember to follow me , I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped. Thank you very much. * LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because: - Here, you will see clean charts; - Trades with clear risk management; - The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology; - Chart patterns with statistics. * * My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
BTC: market structure shows us the next likely path Recent price action of BTC has been disconcertingly stable. This has allowed alts to run, so I'm not complaining. But the question every trader is trying to answer is: which way next? What happens after all this consolidation - a final shakeout sub 8k before the inevitable rise, or a slow grind up that no-one believes until they're forced to capitulate and panic-buy? You could draw a thousand triangles over Bitcoin's price action, but looking at the last couple of months, I see a triangle forming, with an inconclusive ending (drawn in blue). It broke more up than down, but still basically sideways. What caught my eye is a change in the market structure. You can see it in the Williams Trailing Stops indicator, where we broke the yellow short stop line, but, unlike every previous break, we didn't immediately go and break the opposing trail (the orange stop line). In other words, we made a High, followed by a Higher Low. If price crosses the horizontal blue line, we will have made a Higher High. This signals an old-fashioned change in market structure, and gives us more reason to be bullish than bearish. Other Reasons To Be Cheerful are the daily exponential moving averages. I've added just three of them (21, 55, 89) to make the point. The 89 has held as support, the 21 stayed over the 55, and price is now the right side of them all. A few days of closes above the 21D EMA would have it start to curl up, "bouncing" off the 55, which would be a very bullish sign. Indicators used: TradingView Exponential Moving Average, Williams Fractal Trailing Stops
Long
by SimpleCryptoLife
1
A : An opportunity to get 143% Profit A (Agilent Technologies) is a good company with a healthy balance sheet. If you believe in Dow theory, you'll probably invest in this stock. The price action shows 31 & 23 months strong support levels. Here is a full plan to invest in "A". I am going to invest my $XXXXX.XX. I'll buy 30% of X amount @ $82 40% of X amount @ $61 15% of X amount @ between $96 to $100. Rest of X amount @ $43.(If market will go down badly) Most Important Exit price: IMO Exit price will be $147 & $200. Enjoy your trade!
NYSE:ALong
by Chart-read