DTX - downtrend to levels below 650DTX is tracing the early stages of primary wave 3 down that should push pri es to levels below 650. If price crosses up 872 this analysis should be reviewed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
Dowtheory
We warned about the BEAR TRAP (again!)In my last analysis, I warned about the movement SPX was doing, which was very similar to the last bear trap I also warned here. I’ll put the links to my previous analyses bellow, and I invite you to follow me to keep in touch with our trades and analyses.
It was a perfect déjà vu. Again, I saw a lot of people calling it a short trade, but we knew we should be careful here, and what I saw was exactly the same thing as the previous time . And I’ll repeat what Charles Dow said about a century ago: “Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Occurs”.
Let’s take a look at the hourly chart:
Two days ago, when SPX did that bearish candle in the daily chart the price was just doing a pullback in the hourly chart. That’s why is so important to look at different timeframes . But what’s incredible is that the same thing happened before, on Apr 28, and I warned about it too. Again, all the links bellow.
But, what now? The real challenge here is to surpass the pink line in the daily chart, because that would trigger a pivot. Also look at the weekly chart:
If we close above the 61.8% fib retracement it will be perfect. Maybe a V pattern in the weekly chart? That’s too optimistic in my opinion but yes, it's possible.
Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
- Here, you will see clean charts;
- Trades with clear risk management;
- The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology;
- Chart patterns with statistics. *
* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
BTC at U$ 55k? Is it possible?What the chart can tell us about the future of BTC?
There’re a lot of theories surrounding the crypto, and most of them are positively promising, and these theories are gaining strength now, specially with the halving coming this month. For instance, we have models that can be used to determinate the Bitcoin’s value, like the Stock-to-Flow model, which I find interesting and it makes sense, but what I’ll do here today is analyze the chart.
Let’s look the weekly chart for a good perspective. Now, BTC is trading inside a descending channel for months, which is typical of a bear market, and here I’ll quote again what Charles Dow, the technical analysis’s father, said about a century ago: “Trends persist until a clear reversal occurs”.
And that’s bad right? I mean, that “clear reversal” didn’t occurred yet. Yes, that’s true, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel here. Look more carefully at the volume.
During the last bullish movement (evidenced by the purple rectangle) the volume was low, even lower when compared to the whole year (evidenced by the red rectangle). That means that the bulls were not strong enough to change the trend.
Now, we witnessed another good bullish reaction over the past weeks again, but this time there’s a difference. Look how the volume increased! Even the 21 moving average that is in the volume is going up now. Charles Dow also said: “Volume must confirm the trend”. And that could make the whole difference for BTC now.
And if a bull market starts here, I firmly believe BTC will have the strength to breakout the U$ 14k and will test the U$ 20k again. At least that’s what the chart tells us.
So, there’s a lot in stake here. With the halving coming and the price at such delicate moment, we are living one of the most decisive moments on the history of cryptos.
Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
- Here, you will see clean charts;
- Trades with clear risk management;
- The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology;
- Chart patterns with statistics. *
* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
ALGO/BTC 8R longIn the current climate, trading alts is risky, but then when isn't it risky? For those that are risk-on..
ALGO looks interesting to me:
Bounced off long-term support
Has made a couple of higher highs and higher lows (Williams Trailing Stops)
8/21D EMA bull cross (Exponential Moving Averages)
Solid green daily trend for the last 3 weeks (Price Action Trend | Simple)
I'm thinking even if it goes where I want, it might range for a little between the nearest support and resistance zones, or at least come back to retest the 21D EMA.
So my entry bid is at 0.00002735.
Stop is under recent lows at 0.00002493. Targets are up to your style, but logical places would be under resistance zones: 0.00003786 (set stop in profit), 0.00004853 (for 8.5R), 0.005616 (and so on)
I'll pull it on signs of general market weakness.
Look at that weekly chart though - ALGO has great potential if alts do finally run.
GBPJPY SHORT/SELLPrimary trend is downtrend and the price now make a secondary uptrend, according to EMA 22 the price is at dynamic resistance and will bounce to continue bearish,after that i found pennant pattern that will make price to continue bearish, for target price I'm using Fibonacci retracement at 1.618 golden ratio
Dow theory basicsHow to identify trends and trend changes.
In downtrends - trendlines must connect the descending peaks - left to right
In uptrends - trendlines must connect rising thoroughs - left to right
"Trend is your friend unless it ends"- T. DeMark:)
GOOD LUCK!
DOW sparks will flyCatalysts for bull runs have been seen including symmetrical triangles, and three clear bullish divergences. A broadening wedge within a broadening wedge is present, these 52% of the time (according to bulkowski's chart patterns) result in a breakout downwards. Most often this chart pattern is found in bull markets. A clear cut case is the DOW. Going off purely TA a breakdown is likely from these high levels back towards the mean of the wedge , possibly even forming a symmetrical triangle or a falling wedge within the wedge to hold it. Monthly chart. If you are looking to buy, entering is fine as long as you are prepared for downsides and want to go long, as you can see the chart is clearly bullish .
combining upward and downward gann fan toolUsing only one tool with 4 clicks (4 anchor points) so much can be understood. Open you mind to more than simple trend lines and chart patterns and take your TA to a whole new level.
downward gann fan exampleNot only can you use a gann fan in the upward position to help identify targets above, but it can be used in a downward position to help identify areas of resistance and to help predict runs out of a downtrend. The vast majority of the time when a stock passes through the last fan angle there is a significant run. Additionally, the vast majority of the time, when price action is out of the shadow of the downward gann fan the downward trend is over and the equity is in the recovery and accumulation phase. I have made many many profitable trades using this technique
Gann fan - highly under utilisedThe purpose of my post is not to teach anyone this method nor prove its success - I don't have the time. I am simply throwing out a bone to 99% of people on here whose thinking is limited to individual trend lines and patterns. These have their place however they are not the full story.
Anchor points are almost always the low before a run and the top of the bull trap following a run.
Direction was change to bullishIn Dow theory is simple method to see price direction
waiting to buy from demand zone for short term TP
LTC/USD - Coinbase Daily Chart - not longing just yet LTC is a tricky one to predict. Consider that LTC has been leading the way earlier this year and not BTC. Although BTC gets the news, LTC was usually the first to move (pump) with BTC then eth/alts. LTC topped out June 22 '19 with BTC following June 26 '19.
While BTC is playing more of a traditional DOW theory thus far (and I use traditional in the loose sense here in the Crypto world) :
swinging up uptrend topped out --selling-------------------------------------> stabilizing
(Accumulation , Public Participation, Distribution , <-we are here -> Public Participation, Accumulation)
1 2 3 4 5
LTC seems to have taken a quicker ride up and down. That is why its hard to say if we are still in the early stages or latter stage of public selling (#3->4) . I would say short but if we are in the latter stages of selling... wouldn't it be worth it to wait till it we start accumulating again and go long?
I have two green lines that represent the uptrend LTC was on. The Black circles represent the head and shoulders pattern that was drawn and confirmed as they broke both uptrends. Not only that, we established a clear downtrend (red line) that has been tested twice and failed. Moving Average 20/50/200 are all above price along with the Ichi Cloud. Only thing I see as support are the support lines I drew around the 51.20 which held up for now.
Now normally (and most likely still do) I would say not to touch this because I usually want to see the price above a MA to feel safe however there is a clear channel that is happening (purple line). The falling wedge has at least 3 points where it bounced. Not only that but the RSI is in the undersold region. Perhaps for a scalp it would work but for a long hold I am skeptical.
Falling Wedge w/ undersold RSI and stabilizing MACD
vs
Price under all the Ichimoku indicators and below 20/55/200 MA as well as Bear market sentiment.
As you can tell I am not hype about longing LTC. Consider me interested if the following happens :
We fall to $39-42 region
We break my Solid Red line and retest it (must pass the retest obviously)
Until then, just let everyone else fight it out and sit back with CASH in your account.
Dow Theory - DJIA and DJTA Clash to Signal Bearish Future*Yellow = 200 EMA | Blue = 100 EMA
This video goes over the divergence between the DJ:DJI and DJ:DJT . Currently, the DJIA is trending upwards, setting new highs, and lows. However, contrary to this movement, the DJTA is moving downwards heading towards a trendline shown in the video, but could very easily break through that trendline.
Why do I care?
In 1929, several months before the flash crash and the official start of the Great Depression, divergence indicated by Dow Theory helped forecast bearish price action. This is outlined in the Intelligent Investor . Part of Dow Theory states that if either the DJIA or DJTA starts moving in a direction in contradiction of the other, the index whose movement has not yet transitioned will begin to do so. In this case, that means that the DJIA should start to trend further downward.
On the weekly charts of both indices, the RSI shows obvious bearish divergence moving in confluence with the hypothesis presented by Dow Theory.
This could mean short term breaks of trendlines and longer-term moves to lower supports around 21 000 - 22 000 price range for the DJIA or lower.
Internationally, we've seen global growth in regard to Europe (eg. Germany's poor GDP report), China's poor manufacturing, the inverted yield curve, and greater bearish sentiment as a product of Trump and his trade war. These factors along with this analysis indicate looming bearish movement, but also the potential to BUY more stocks as they become cheaper and become bargains.
Good Luck Traders!
Dow TheoryCharles H. Dow (with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser) founded the Dow Jones & Company Inc. and developped the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the big new thing back then were big industries, now it is big tech giants Apple Amazon Google Facebook... Next is going to be renewables and biotech nah just kidding next is a huge recession and WW3 and the end of modern civilisation too late to save the world).
Dow created a theory that he descrobed in editorials in the Wall Street Journal (which he dounded):
1. The market prices everything. Whether the participants know it or not. Even future events are priced in in the form of risk.
2. There are 3 kinds of market trends. Primary trends 1 year or more (bull or bear markets of different magnitude, consolidation). Secondary trends are pullbacks in a bull market and rallies (sharp ones) in a bear market. Last kind of trend < 3 weeks is basically noise. (Personal remark: for currencies & commodities this is different imo. For the stock market this is valid and has been for centuries)
3. Primary trends have three phases. Accumulation, public participation, excess phase in a bull market. In a bear market distribution, public participation, and panic (or despair) are the 3 phases. Check Elliot Wave theory too.
4. Indices must confirm each other. Dow used the DJIA and DJTA (transportation) indices. Now look at well the 3 USA ones and the other continents too...
5. Volume must confirm the trend. Low volume indicates a weakness in the trend. It should go up as price is going up.
6. The trend stays the primary trend until there is a CLEAR reversal.
(Tell that to FOMO moonboys)
Let's look at exemples of market cycles.
2012-2015:
2017-2021 on the linear chart:
All time, several ways to see it:
2018-2019:
Best to just look at examples:
Looking at volume... It's really not clear. The rule needs to be removed or changed.
With Bitcoin in the excess phase we clearly saw an explosion, and then decline. And that was the top.
Each market works differently but these cycles are seen everywhere.
I wanted to look at the new one, Bitcoin. Let's look at a few other ones.
Sugar ==>
Dow Jones ==>
Gold ==>
Copper ==>
EuroDollar ==>
Tesla ==>
Movie pass (LOL) ==>
Rektcoin ==>
Bitcoin: Dow's bottoming pattern and possible parabolic riseAs you all know Bitcoin dropped ~84% from 20k all the way down to 3k. In the past few months Bitcoin has been painting a bottoming pattern: the failure swing bottom from Dow's theory. I see that absolutely no one talks about this pattern, instead I just see people who talk about an ABC correction that will bring us to new lows, like 2k or even 1k, which in my opinion is not likely.
Also, I want you to notice a possible parabolic trend that is forming right now in Bitcoin . It is simply an acceleration of the upward trend, which doesn't happen since 2017's bull run. It is still at the beginning, so we need to keep an eye on the first two trendlines that formed.
And at last, but not the least, the BBSX index is growing steadily for almost 4 months, which points out a change in sentiment from bearish to bullish and the exhaustion of bears.
Will S&P drop to 2235?Hi Tradingview!
Welcome to my first published idea! I have used different methods of TA to get to a 2235 target of the S&P 500:
* Head and Shoulders pattern with a skewed neckline around current levels, target 2235.
* Dow theory: 16% drop leads to 24% drop 80% of the time. Which is 2235.
* 5th upward pointing wedge in a row. The previous 4 broke to the downside. I do not see this one breaking all the way to 2235, but it does point to short term downside.
* A downward pitchfork channel could be established; the Dec 24th drop nicely respected the -1 line. We are now at the +1 line which could prove resistance.
* When looking historically, 2235 was significant as support on Dec 30th 2016.
I am a trading amateur using Tradingview to learn. I see a lot of people get flamed and burned for posting an idea; I do not mind if you do, that seems the way of the internet nowadays. But if you disagree I'd like to learn why to improve my TA, cause this is just an idea and definitely not financial advice.
Have a great weekend!
Xvg/Btc Verge Buy Opportunity Again Hello Traders,
Verge coin already successully break symmetrical triangle chart pattern and create new high so if we use here Dow Theory so we have already HH and new HL so possibilities here start uptrend and you can book good profit for short and mid term.
Symmetrical Triangle is a chart pattern,
Characterized by converging top and bottoms. The bottom of the triangle is an up sloping support trend line and the top is down sloping resistance trend line.
It may be both reversal or continuation chart pattern.
An uptrend can simply be defined as a series of higher-highs in price,
Coupled with higher-lows. In other words, the overall price direction is higher,
Even though the price will experience corrections along the way. A downtrend is a series of lower-high and lower-low price swings.
See here our latest analysis.
BTC/USD:
SIA/BTC:
XVG/BTC:
BTC/USD:
Wish you all the best guys.
Wait to buy at the "Accumulation Phase" GBPJPYApplying Dow Theory to GBPJPY. Dow Theory - www.investopedia.com
US 30 ?Fake Breakout: Volume not ConfirmingToday's 400pt lift in Dow was unconfirmed by volume which declined as price rose. VOLUME DIVERGENCE violates basic Dow Theory:
The session volume in each day's trading reveals nearly all the session volume was traded before the thin air lift at the end of day.
A move against trend must be confirmed by increasing volume to be a true trend change, else it is merely a countertrend movement.
Expect this rally to fail and return to consolidate around price rotation area. Failure will likely lead to capitulation & panic-selling break down.
I could be wrong, but I'm buying a single put Wednesday to test my theory!
This is not investment advice, trade at your own risk and good luck!
Expecting correction on Indexes.Looking for ABC correction. Ideally S&P makes new highs and Dow fails to make new highs. (Dow Theory)
