BTC: market structure shows us the next likely path Recent price action of BTC has been disconcertingly stable. This has allowed alts to run, so I'm not complaining. But the question every trader is trying to answer is: which way next? What happens after all this consolidation - a final shakeout sub 8k before the inevitable rise, or a slow grind up that no-one believes until they're forced to capitulate and panic-buy?
You could draw a thousand triangles over Bitcoin's price action, but looking at the last couple of months, I see a triangle forming, with an inconclusive ending (drawn in blue). It broke more up than down, but still basically sideways.
What caught my eye is a change in the market structure. You can see it in the Williams Trailing Stops indicator, where we broke the yellow short stop line, but, unlike every previous break, we didn't immediately go and break the opposing trail (the orange stop line).
In other words, we made a High, followed by a Higher Low. If price crosses the horizontal blue line, we will have made a Higher High. This signals an old-fashioned change in market structure, and gives us more reason to be bullish than bearish.
Other Reasons To Be Cheerful are the daily exponential moving averages. I've added just three of them (21, 55, 89) to make the point. The 89 has held as support, the 21 stayed over the 55, and price is now the right side of them all. A few days of closes above the 21D EMA would have it start to curl up, "bouncing" off the 55, which would be a very bullish sign.
Indicators used: TradingView Exponential Moving Average, Williams Fractal Trailing Stops
Dowtheory
A : An opportunity to get 143% Profit A (Agilent Technologies) is a good company with a healthy balance sheet.
If you believe in Dow theory, you'll probably invest in this stock. The price action shows 31 & 23 months strong support levels.
Here is a full plan to invest in "A".
I am going to invest my $XXXXX.XX.
I'll buy
30% of X amount @ $82
40% of X amount @ $61
15% of X amount @ between $96 to $100.
Rest of X amount @ $43.(If market will go down badly)
Most Important Exit price:
IMO Exit price will be $147 & $200.
Enjoy your trade!
Tesla Inc.: A strong BUY on any short-term declinesThe technical chart of the stock shows a remarkably volatile price action in the last 10 trading weeks with huge appreciations and even steeper declines. Tesla’s stock has always been considered as a rather speculative play for growth oriented investors, thus people who are familiar with the stock are no strangers to volatility. However, the moves that we have observed recently have really set some records for the stock.
After the company announced its 2nd consecutive earnings beat back on January 29th with its Q4 2019 earnings report and also gave an upbeat future guidance for 2020, the stock skyrocketed from $600 to $967 in two trading sessions. Soon after that astronomical 61% gain the stock started retracing and dropped to the $690-750 levels at the end of February, and looked quite comfortable there. However, the stock was then dragged lower with the rest of the market in March as a result of the global pandemic COVID-19 outbreak. The stock broke the initial horizontal support lying at $686, the secondary support at $542 and then proceeded its decline through the $455 tertiary support level to only stop at the 200-day moving average at the $350-360 zone. The company’s market capitalization lost 63% of its value in 4 weeks.
We are long-term buyers of Tesla’s stock as a result of the great fundamental positioning that the company has, as we believe that it is poised to benefit from the accelerated demand for the company’s products in the coming years. Additionally, the fact that the company has finally managed to become profitable and is now consistently delivering strong financial results is another great indication for the bright future ahead for the stock. However, following our cross-sector, multi-layered confirmation correlation model we have concluded that Tesla Inc. (TSLA) will give our followers a better entry point for them to open their long-term buy positions in the stock, in the next few weeks.
Thus, we would be interested in buying the stock on any pullback towards the $686 support level and will look to further add to our exposure to the stock in case the price revisits the next support zone around the $542. Our mid-term targets will be placed at the $890 and $995 marks respectively, with our extended long-term take profit levels positioned at the $1150 and $1220 per share.
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Sincerely,
DowExperts
DTX - downtrend to levels below 650DTX is tracing the early stages of primary wave 3 down that should push pri es to levels below 650. If price crosses up 872 this analysis should be reviewed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
We warned about the BEAR TRAP (again!)In my last analysis, I warned about the movement SPX was doing, which was very similar to the last bear trap I also warned here. I’ll put the links to my previous analyses bellow, and I invite you to follow me to keep in touch with our trades and analyses.
It was a perfect déjà vu. Again, I saw a lot of people calling it a short trade, but we knew we should be careful here, and what I saw was exactly the same thing as the previous time . And I’ll repeat what Charles Dow said about a century ago: “Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Occurs”.
Let’s take a look at the hourly chart:
Two days ago, when SPX did that bearish candle in the daily chart the price was just doing a pullback in the hourly chart. That’s why is so important to look at different timeframes . But what’s incredible is that the same thing happened before, on Apr 28, and I warned about it too. Again, all the links bellow.
But, what now? The real challenge here is to surpass the pink line in the daily chart, because that would trigger a pivot. Also look at the weekly chart:
If we close above the 61.8% fib retracement it will be perfect. Maybe a V pattern in the weekly chart? That’s too optimistic in my opinion but yes, it's possible.
Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
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- Trades with clear risk management;
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- Chart patterns with statistics. *
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BTC at U$ 55k? Is it possible?What the chart can tell us about the future of BTC?
There’re a lot of theories surrounding the crypto, and most of them are positively promising, and these theories are gaining strength now, specially with the halving coming this month. For instance, we have models that can be used to determinate the Bitcoin’s value, like the Stock-to-Flow model, which I find interesting and it makes sense, but what I’ll do here today is analyze the chart.
Let’s look the weekly chart for a good perspective. Now, BTC is trading inside a descending channel for months, which is typical of a bear market, and here I’ll quote again what Charles Dow, the technical analysis’s father, said about a century ago: “Trends persist until a clear reversal occurs”.
And that’s bad right? I mean, that “clear reversal” didn’t occurred yet. Yes, that’s true, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel here. Look more carefully at the volume.
During the last bullish movement (evidenced by the purple rectangle) the volume was low, even lower when compared to the whole year (evidenced by the red rectangle). That means that the bulls were not strong enough to change the trend.
Now, we witnessed another good bullish reaction over the past weeks again, but this time there’s a difference. Look how the volume increased! Even the 21 moving average that is in the volume is going up now. Charles Dow also said: “Volume must confirm the trend”. And that could make the whole difference for BTC now.
And if a bull market starts here, I firmly believe BTC will have the strength to breakout the U$ 14k and will test the U$ 20k again. At least that’s what the chart tells us.
So, there’s a lot in stake here. With the halving coming and the price at such delicate moment, we are living one of the most decisive moments on the history of cryptos.
Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
- Here, you will see clean charts;
- Trades with clear risk management;
- The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology;
- Chart patterns with statistics. *
* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
ALGO/BTC 8R longIn the current climate, trading alts is risky, but then when isn't it risky? For those that are risk-on..
ALGO looks interesting to me:
Bounced off long-term support
Has made a couple of higher highs and higher lows (Williams Trailing Stops)
8/21D EMA bull cross (Exponential Moving Averages)
Solid green daily trend for the last 3 weeks (Price Action Trend | Simple)
I'm thinking even if it goes where I want, it might range for a little between the nearest support and resistance zones, or at least come back to retest the 21D EMA.
So my entry bid is at 0.00002735.
Stop is under recent lows at 0.00002493. Targets are up to your style, but logical places would be under resistance zones: 0.00003786 (set stop in profit), 0.00004853 (for 8.5R), 0.005616 (and so on)
I'll pull it on signs of general market weakness.
Look at that weekly chart though - ALGO has great potential if alts do finally run.
GBPJPY SHORT/SELLPrimary trend is downtrend and the price now make a secondary uptrend, according to EMA 22 the price is at dynamic resistance and will bounce to continue bearish,after that i found pennant pattern that will make price to continue bearish, for target price I'm using Fibonacci retracement at 1.618 golden ratio
DOW sparks will flyCatalysts for bull runs have been seen including symmetrical triangles, and three clear bullish divergences. A broadening wedge within a broadening wedge is present, these 52% of the time (according to bulkowski's chart patterns) result in a breakout downwards. Most often this chart pattern is found in bull markets. A clear cut case is the DOW. Going off purely TA a breakdown is likely from these high levels back towards the mean of the wedge , possibly even forming a symmetrical triangle or a falling wedge within the wedge to hold it. Monthly chart. If you are looking to buy, entering is fine as long as you are prepared for downsides and want to go long, as you can see the chart is clearly bullish .
downward gann fan exampleNot only can you use a gann fan in the upward position to help identify targets above, but it can be used in a downward position to help identify areas of resistance and to help predict runs out of a downtrend. The vast majority of the time when a stock passes through the last fan angle there is a significant run. Additionally, the vast majority of the time, when price action is out of the shadow of the downward gann fan the downward trend is over and the equity is in the recovery and accumulation phase. I have made many many profitable trades using this technique
Gann fan - highly under utilisedThe purpose of my post is not to teach anyone this method nor prove its success - I don't have the time. I am simply throwing out a bone to 99% of people on here whose thinking is limited to individual trend lines and patterns. These have their place however they are not the full story.
Anchor points are almost always the low before a run and the top of the bull trap following a run.
LTC/USD - Coinbase Daily Chart - not longing just yet LTC is a tricky one to predict. Consider that LTC has been leading the way earlier this year and not BTC. Although BTC gets the news, LTC was usually the first to move (pump) with BTC then eth/alts. LTC topped out June 22 '19 with BTC following June 26 '19.
While BTC is playing more of a traditional DOW theory thus far (and I use traditional in the loose sense here in the Crypto world) :
swinging up uptrend topped out --selling-------------------------------------> stabilizing
(Accumulation , Public Participation, Distribution , <-we are here -> Public Participation, Accumulation)
1 2 3 4 5
LTC seems to have taken a quicker ride up and down. That is why its hard to say if we are still in the early stages or latter stage of public selling (#3->4) . I would say short but if we are in the latter stages of selling... wouldn't it be worth it to wait till it we start accumulating again and go long?
I have two green lines that represent the uptrend LTC was on. The Black circles represent the head and shoulders pattern that was drawn and confirmed as they broke both uptrends. Not only that, we established a clear downtrend (red line) that has been tested twice and failed. Moving Average 20/50/200 are all above price along with the Ichi Cloud. Only thing I see as support are the support lines I drew around the 51.20 which held up for now.
Now normally (and most likely still do) I would say not to touch this because I usually want to see the price above a MA to feel safe however there is a clear channel that is happening (purple line). The falling wedge has at least 3 points where it bounced. Not only that but the RSI is in the undersold region. Perhaps for a scalp it would work but for a long hold I am skeptical.
Falling Wedge w/ undersold RSI and stabilizing MACD
vs
Price under all the Ichimoku indicators and below 20/55/200 MA as well as Bear market sentiment.
As you can tell I am not hype about longing LTC. Consider me interested if the following happens :
We fall to $39-42 region
We break my Solid Red line and retest it (must pass the retest obviously)
Until then, just let everyone else fight it out and sit back with CASH in your account.
Dow Theory - DJIA and DJTA Clash to Signal Bearish Future*Yellow = 200 EMA | Blue = 100 EMA
This video goes over the divergence between the DJ:DJI and DJ:DJT . Currently, the DJIA is trending upwards, setting new highs, and lows. However, contrary to this movement, the DJTA is moving downwards heading towards a trendline shown in the video, but could very easily break through that trendline.
Why do I care?
In 1929, several months before the flash crash and the official start of the Great Depression, divergence indicated by Dow Theory helped forecast bearish price action. This is outlined in the Intelligent Investor . Part of Dow Theory states that if either the DJIA or DJTA starts moving in a direction in contradiction of the other, the index whose movement has not yet transitioned will begin to do so. In this case, that means that the DJIA should start to trend further downward.
On the weekly charts of both indices, the RSI shows obvious bearish divergence moving in confluence with the hypothesis presented by Dow Theory.
This could mean short term breaks of trendlines and longer-term moves to lower supports around 21 000 - 22 000 price range for the DJIA or lower.
Internationally, we've seen global growth in regard to Europe (eg. Germany's poor GDP report), China's poor manufacturing, the inverted yield curve, and greater bearish sentiment as a product of Trump and his trade war. These factors along with this analysis indicate looming bearish movement, but also the potential to BUY more stocks as they become cheaper and become bargains.
Good Luck Traders!