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Draghi

EURO LONG NOW OR NEVERAs far as risk goes you have to.. for the biscuit. We see Multiple technical confluences surrounding the 1.1170 handle with an X marks the spot scenario. Quarterly chart implies a continuation of the long term up trend for the pair. We are sitting around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and have support from an ascending and descending trendline. With the possible US rate cut later this week we could have the catalyst needed to get the ball rolling. With a 50bp cut the EUR/USD could be sent back above the 1.1300 handle by the monthly close on Wednesday. Speculatively we are looking for the 1.3900 handle being respected at some point in 2020. The 1.1700 handle will be met by the end of the year.
Long
by zenithmarkets
Dax daily: 26 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session started by the gap closure, just as we pinpointed. The resistance at 12 576 was retested twice and then the price action was dominated by fundamentals. The ECB President Mario Draghi hinted a possible rate cut into negative values to tackle Eurozone's economic stagnation. This scepticism influenced the German stock index DAX as well and we saw this reflected by a prudent downfall by more than 250 points. The session was closed at 12 344. Important zones Resistance: 12 437, 12 470 Support: 12 338 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is only 38% Macroeconomic releases 14:30 CEST - USA - Advance GDP q/q Today's session hypothesis Yesterday's volatile activity has dramatically reduced our estimations and today's hypothesis. The moves were caused by fundamental news. The statistical application signifies the gap closure probability of only 38%, yet the price around 12 338 became a balanced consensus for market participants. That's one reason this zone could be retested today as well. Besides, we have enough room for the long correction all the way towards 12 437.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
EURUSD - Short long term - Key data this weekOn our analysis on the 02.07 we were short EURUSD after a strong payroll and have since taken profit as the currency pair fell below 1.12. We are still short and long term we expected EURUSD to keep falling and believe it could fall to multi years lows below 1.08 by the end of 2019. This week could bring a significant amount of movement in the currency pair with the ECB on Thursday which could provide clues as to future EU monetary policy with Draghi to comment on potential rate cuts and further quantitative easing. Additionally US GDP data released Friday could impact the odds of a US rate cut and how aggressive the FED are in cutting rates. Therefore we hold our short position and will look for EURUSD to break 1.11 before taking further profit.
Short
by KQMarkets
Why I am going short on EURAUDEURAUD has reached to one of its strongest resistance zone. In the past few years price fell down sharply after reaching this point in several occasions. Now again market is in this area. If you look at the oscillators like RSI, MACD, Stochastic on the chart to measure the energy of the market, you see divergences and RSI overbought which all means market doesn't have enough energy to break this resistance zone. Based on price action and the Japaneese Candle Stick patterns we can easily see a few small candles has been shaped on that area which is showing buyers are not very strong to push the price higher. The last candle for yesterday is a kind of high test bar which has a long leg on its top and then a long red body indicated the pressure from sellers. As you see this candle went below the low's of its previous candle which is another selling signal. Based on Elliot Waves we had an ABC correction when priced came down from this zone last time ( From Jan 2019 to mid Apr). After than a new set of 5 waves completed. If you test the idea with Fibonacci it confirms the 5 impulse waves are counted correctly. From the fundamental analysis point of view, Mario Draghi said ECB could cut interest rates again or provide further asset purchases if inflation doesn't reach its target. He admits the only option to increase the rate is when inflation goes much higher than the target. So this sounds like a sell signal or at least not supporting a bullish rally for EUR anymore. These are just a couple of signals we have to go short on EURAUD. The other possible scenario is EUR breaking this area upward which means our forecast failed, we change the position direction and get ready for a long position then, but we don't want to put much emphasis on this scenario as it is not really high probability.
Short
by hugh_me
Fed & Dollar: Expectation and moves; Trump's tweets & EuroPresident Trump said Tuesday morning that Xi Jinping had agreed to meet with him at the Group of 20 summit next week. “We will be having an extended meeting next week at the G-20 in Japan. Our respective teams will begin talks prior to our meeting.” Trump wrote on Twitter. Markets are reacting to this tweet as a signal to relax. However, on our point of view withdrawal from safe-haven assets premature, the growth in demand for risky assets is a dubious idea. The thing is, the conflict parties need to be returned the the negotiation table. Also, Another news that triggered a surge in activity in the foreign exchange market was the statement by the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, that the rate cut by the ECB is considered by the Central Bank as part of the tool for additional stimulation of the economy. Traders rushed to sell euros. We'll take it slow. Draghi voiced that have already been said by ECB's officials earlier. Well, interest rate management is the basic toolkit of the monetary policy of any Central Bank. So we do not share the enthusiasm of euro sellers and continue to recommend using such descents for its purchases. Well, the main event of the week will be the announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee on the parameters of monetary policy in the United States. Many people are waiting for lowering interest rates. But if you look at the likelihood of this event, then at the moment it is estimated at 22%, while 78% of traders believe that the rate will be left unchanged. But at the same time, the situation in July is radically different: only 15% believe that the rate will remain at the current level, and 85% think that the rate will be lowered (at least by 0.25% and 18% believe that the decline will generally be 0.5% ). The fact is that the current situation seems ambiguous, so we are supporting those ones who are supporting the lowering. On the one hand, the trade war is uncertainties and risks to the economy. But on the other hand, 10 years in a row, economic growth in the United States has actually shown that it is too early to panic. The data on NFP this month came out disastrous, but retail sales and industrial production in the United States showed good growth. That is, we have a certain balance in the pros and cons of the rate cut today. And this gives the most obvious reason for the US Central Bank to continue to withstand a pause. The question arises "what to do with the dollar ?". Here our position is unequivocal - sell. The chances that the Fed will give reasons for the revitalization of buyers are insignificant. Unless there will be an unequivocal statement about the inexpediency of lowering rates in principle. But the probability of this is extremely small. But the likelihood of the phrase that at the next meeting the rate may be lowered, on the contrary, seems to us quite possible. And this is a signal against the dollar. So, our trading preferences are unchanged: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro and the pound, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold.
Short
by Trade24Fx
EURUSD still short On our analysis on the 04.06 we indicated that we were still short ahead of the ECB meeting but EURUSD went up after the ECB did not hint at any potential future rate cuts as anticipated by the market. However, at the ECB forum in Sintra, Mario Draghi indicated that interest rate cuts are a possibility which sent EURUSD tumbling below the 1.11926 Fibonacci level at which point we took some profit. We will now hold our short position and wait for the outcome of the FED rate decision and Powell's speech on Wednesday.
Short
by KQMarkets
EURCHF at important support. 1.14 in sight?The EURCHF pair has reached once again an important support level which can be seen on the weekly chart. The support is formed by a confluence of the 61.8% Fib level and a strong horizontal support - the lower levels of the recent range. Shorter-term charts shows a symmetrical triangle pattern which may soon break out to the upside. The pair may retest the upper range levels around 1.14xx if the mentioned support levels show to hold. The RSI on the daily also shows a bullish divergence. Short-term risks include today's ECB meeting with an expected dovish tone from Draghi, given the recent dovish stance from the Fed and the RBA.
Long
by MujkanovicFX
Dax daily: 06 Jun 2019 Yesterday’s session started without a gap and after a short correction, buyers really headed upwards to higher levels. Unfortunately, the momentum wasn’t strong enough to reach our target at 12 064. The session was then closed near it’s open at 11 986. Important zones Resistance: 12 064 Support: 11 861 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 13:45 CEST – EUR – Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement 14:30 CEST – ECB Press Conference Today’s session hypothesis Today’s session opened with a gap sized 34 points. This size of the gap has approximately 50 – 65% probability for closing, so no strong edge here, yet such a scenario would be nice for this morning. For today, we expect a weaker activity up till the ECB rate decision and the Monetary Policy Statement. The more important though will be Draghi’s presser later on at 2.30pm CEST. The ECB’s bias could influence the rest of today’s price action. On the long side, we still target the 12 064 level. On the short side, our focus is on the support level of 11 861.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
EUR/USD 1-HOUR TIMEFRAME SHORT (AFTER BEAR FLAG PATTERN)The EUR/USD currency pair is moving in a descending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and prices have just broken out of a counter trend (ascending channel) on the 1-hour timeframe. I expect further downside of the pair after a small consolidation (breather/correction/pause) in the form of a bear flag pattern. However note that prices might skip this stage if bears are looking for "skin" (powerful enough). This should be a good scaling trade and the target is at the bottom of the ascending channel pattern at the price level 1.11870.
Short
by munyaelliott
Selling EURUSD at current levels with Targets at 1.11 and 1.09Here selling EURUSD ahead of the Brexit pantomime. We have completed the retrace since the ECB flows and it is time to start getting back to work on the sell-side in Europe. From a technical perspective, we are trading the remainder to the downside of the 2nd wave. Inside this wave 2 we have just completed an ABCDE pattern and it is time to break to the downside. All cards are in play, best of luck all those trading this one. Thanks.
Short
by ridethepig
2
EurUsd price broke again the resistanceEUR/USD price broke again the resistance, we recommend a long entrance with a target of 1,133 / 1,138 with timing not exceeding 2-3 days. Then, once there is a rejection with daily confirmation, reposition short in the short period (a few weeks) with the target area between the 1.10 and the 1.08.. It is returning to the side channel that has been stalling since October. This channel is formed by the static resistance at 1.151 and the support just mentioned (1.118). The main trend of this pair has been set down for more than a year. Due to the opposing monetary policies adopted by the respective central banks. In this period, in the short/very short term, after the slowdown declared by the Fed, that will leave the rates unchanged even in tomorrow's session, a slight weakness is expected from the US dollar against the other majors. An upward breach of 1.133 will bring the price to test the subsequent static resistance, set at 1.138. A rejection by that level will bring the price back below 1.12 sanctioning a continuation of the main downtrend that will bring EURUSD to touch the 1.10 psychological support very soon. To summarize EUR/USD price broke again the resistance, we recommend a long entrance with a target of 1,133 / 1,138 with timing not exceeding 2-3 days. Then, once there is a rejection with daily confirmation, reposition short in the short period (a few weeks) with the target area between the 1.10 and the 1.08.
Long
by BFCMInvest
Draghi departure & fate of euro, CB of Canada & Japan decisionThe main event on the foreign exchange market yesterday was the announcement of the outcome of the Bank of Canada meeting. For the fourth time, the Central Bank did not raise the rate. The decision is predictable and has been accounted for in the Canadian dollar price. But what was not considered? The fact that the Bank of Canada completely removed the mention of the possibility of a rate hike in the future from its statement. This was a surprise. For the Canadian dollar surprises with a “minus sign”. So, its sales could be called logical. The rest of the Wednesday was a rather quiet day. Dollar growth has stalled. In the absence of additional drivers for growth. However, today a surge of volatility in dollar pairs might occur after the publication of data on orders for durable goods in the United States. Well, almost certainly not avoid a “roller coaster” on Friday, when data on US GDP for the first quarter will be published. In relation to relatively calm news background, investors and traders decided to attend to promising events. In particular, what will happen with the euro after the Mario Draghi departure from the post of President of the ECB? According to analysts at UBS, the euro is waiting for its growth regardless of who takes the chair. Motivation - a new president - is a reason to start tightening monetary policy in the Eurozone. That is a positive factor for the euro anyway. So those who are engaged in long-term trading should pay attention to buying euros, which is quite cheap lately. Another important Central Bank’s meeting this time in Japan was held today. Traditionally, the Bank of Japan did not adjust the country's monetary policy. But at the same time, Central Bank made it clear that the ultra-soft monetary policy will continue until at least 2020. In addition, the Central Bank lowered its forecasts for inflation and GDP in Japan. In general, this is quite a sickening blow to the yen, so its sales remain relevant. So, we are continuing to recommend to buy USDJPY. According to the US Department of Energy, oil reserves in the United States have risen sharply over the past week (+5.479 million with a forecast of +1.0 million). Despite this clearly bearish signal, oil did not decline. This once again confirms the current situation in the oil market: buyers dominate. This means that it is necessary to continue to look for points for buying on the intraday basis. As for our other positions, today we are continuing to look for points for selling the dollar against the euro, pound, and also the franc. In addition, we return to the gold buying on the intraday basis.
by Trade24Fx
The price is preparing to break this lateralityThe price is preparing to break this laterality.   The situation kept the price within the channel between support at 0.846 and resistance (both static and dynamic) identified respectively by 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement and by EMA20 weekly periods. If there was a confirmation of closure above this level, the price will tend to reach the subsequent static resistance area. That is located about 0.89, and could register a very short term rally on price. If the price breaks down the support in the 0.843 area, the main downtrend would remain unchanged. Bringing this change back to below 0.80, it can reach a minimum not been touched for 3 years. The macroeconomic scenario remains in favor of a short-term uptrend. The uncertainties of the Eurozone continue to weigh on the reference currency. The monetary policies that will be adopted is favoring a devaluation of the Euro in the medium term. The Brexit situation remains unchanged and according to the main analysts will set new period minimums for gbp by June. The target area that investors aim is between 0.89 and 0.91. From here it is possible that this pair will stabilize and that therefore the descent will continue again towards the EMA200 weekly (0.855). As soon as the closure above this resistance is tested, we will recommend a long entry.
by BFCMInvest
EURUSD HEAD & SHOULDERS In case you missed it, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently underscored its dovish stance by sharing that downside risks have proven “somewhat longer lasting” than previously expected. Draghi and his gang also said that it’s ready to “adjust all its instruments” in case of weaker growth and inflation prospects. Last but not the least, it doesn’t look like we’ll see any change in its low interest rates “at least through the end of 2019.” Yipes! Luckily for the euro bulls, the combo of M&A flows and better-than-expected data from China have inspired traders to look past the ECB’s dovishness. But if next week’s data releases remind traders of why the ECB is so dovish, then I’ll look for entries for EUR/USD’s possible trip back to its downtrend.
by UnknownUnicorn3717994
1
Buy EURUSDEURUSD is bouncing from the ascending trend line on daily time frame supporting the bullish view on the short term. SL should be placed under the 1.12 level. ECB will announce its rate decision tomorrow, although the inflation and growth risk are skewed to the downside but Q1 data is weak and could make Mario Draghi express his concern about economy losing its momentum which could put pressure on rate hike in 2019 summer expectations, and leaves the door open for additional easing measures. albeit I would prefer buying the pair from low level rather than selling it. Goodluck
Long
by Assem_Mansour
The price returned to test the medium term key supportThe price returned to test. The price returned to test the medium term key support at 123.8. If it were violated to the downside with closure below it would be a strongly bearish scenario. This would immediately lead it to the next static support at 122.6. Within a couple of sessions then could try to break it down. The pair could reach the next support area at 118 in a week. If, on the other hand, this level, where is the price now, resisted, a very short uptrend will follow up to the static resistance set at 125.7. Most plausible scenario Given the macroeconomic situation that is causing markets and investors worry, it is very likely that shortly we will be able to see a retracement of the main indices. This shifting investors to Japan’s currency. The scenario that is taking shape in the European currency also weighs heavily. The ECB’s stagnant economic and monetary policy is weakening the euro. The currency will continue to depreciate throughout 2019.
Short
by BFCMInvest
Focus will shift to additional ECB easing very soonThe removal of 2019 hikes is worth highlighting because it does not fully support the story we are being told from macro data meaning the bar is set high for any further hikes. History tells us it’s very unusual for the Fed to pause for a long time in hiking cycles before resuming meaning this is likely the end of hikes in the cycle. See tradingview for a more detailed review of the Fed. Focus will soon shift back to additional easing from the ECB who are more dovish than Fed so any upside will remain capped in EURUSD. I remain confident in the 1.09 forecast for Q2. We have PMIs tomorrow, inline or overshoots there will be enough to turn the ship south...otherwise we are set for more consolidation. Good luck
Short
by ridethepig
1
"One and Done" ... An update to EURUSD for FEDOn the monetary side, Fed taking the spotlight so let’s start digging into the details… Expecting the Fed to lower the “dots” signalling one hike in 2019 … a “one and done” approach. June seems unlikely now as the Fed has started to focus on inflation to keep equity markets happy. My base case is for a hike in December meaning the dollar looks underpriced at current levels and with a lingering ECB easing risk premium EURUSD will start the leg lower after we clear Fed and PMIs. From a technical standpoint we are sitting at strong resistance, any kneejerks higher (unlikely) will attract a lot of selling interest. Best of luck all those trading Fed
Short
by ridethepig
2