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Draghi

EUR/NZD Channel Up - Before Draghi's SpeechThe choice to review the EUR/NZD pair was made due to the rather high demand for it during the recent 24 hours on the Swiss Foreign Exchange and the fact that it does not involve the US Dollar. From a technical perspective the rate is set to decline during the next 24 hours, as it faces strong resistance from 1.6365 to 1.6481 levels, and there is no support as low as 1.6230 mark. However, the rate can still be influenced by the speech of Mario Draghi at 19:00 GMT in Jackson Hole. Although, the ECB President is most likely going to be bullish, as he has been pressured by the heads of the EU to stop with the QE, which could provide the needed push through the resistance levels.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EURJPY - Short on Dovish DraghiWe have a lot of EUR news due out tomorrow together with a speech from Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank. His comments alone will move the market and we are hoping for an alignment with the PMI data due out later on in the morning. This will give us a great trading opportunity on the EUR throughout the rest of the week. We are planning a short trade on the EURJPY should we see and hear dovish sentiment from Draghi. The Yen has been the stronger of the two currencies over the past week, and over the past month, and is currently sitting at resistance.
Short
by Mase_00_7
Yellen surprises and US Military action push safe heavens higherUS joint military exercises in South Korea which risked to run across ultimately response from North Korean leader, has been set off. It may be a new reserve for exacerbation of the geopolitical situation on Korean peninsula. The market so far does not lend itself to provocations, the VIX index is in negative territory, gold is showing sluggish attempts to return to the growth phase, but the confrontation for the $ 1,300 level is expected to have a more complex outcome, as the fundamental picture promises to be replenished both by the Fed statements and the potential response of North Korea. There is a high probability that the risk aversion will outweigh and trade in defense assets will take place in the green zone. ECB President Mario Draghi unfortunately refrains from discussing monetary policy on the speech in Jackson Hole on Friday, but from Janet Yellen markets expect seminal comments that will allow to adjust expectations on the timeframe of money supply cuts. In the light of slowing inflation in developed countries, the markets will be able to take a stock of assumptions about why the Phillips curve does not work, whether the relationship between employment and price increases is still alive (and in what degree) and what happens with labor productivity. Gloom or optimism will either pave the way to guessing the degree of participation of central banks in supporting the economy, and hence the dynamics of rates, stimulus, etc. On the positive side for oil traders there was news about production outage at the Libyan field of Sharar. The decline in production was 280 thousand barrels, the timing of the return to operation is still unknown. Last week, the reduction in US inventories exceeded expectations, but given the increased demand for gasoline due to the travel season, it has mild effect on prices.US rig count shrunk by 5 according to Baker Hughes, but stabilization of drilling activity near 760 rigs together with oil prices swaying near $50 per barrel clearly shows that further growth in oil prices rests on a fundamental factor in the absence of radical OPEC decisions. Spreads in the futures market declined, which also suppresses the activity of American producers that hedge profits maintaining high supplies. Arthur Idiatulin, Tickmill Market Watcher
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Tickmill
Eur/Gbp getting exhausted (Short)-We're getting to the top of long-term range -Jackson Hole conference at the end of this week will host both Yellen and Draghi -Draghi will IMO be dovish to smaller or higher extend as per his latest comments of Euro "overshooting in repricing by financial markets" -Other circumstances indicate he wont be hawkish (no QE tapering for now -Will enter the trade as soon as market opens -"Sources familiar with the matter" said that Draghi will not deliver no new policy message at Jackson Hole -North Korea might spew out some aggressive headlines since there will be joint military drills in Japan (US and Japanese forces) - this might weight in to this pair as well Cheers
Short
by Chuck-Norris
1
EURUSD bounce is around the cornerOil prices break into green area expecting that the OPEC meeting will not be spent in vain and the participants will find ways to pare their production capacities The weekly report of Baker Hughes showed that the drilling activity rested on some ceiling, as the growth of active drilling rigs ceased. Last week, their number fell from 765 to 764 units. After US oil producers switched from long-term outlooks to immediate profitability of the barrel, additional capacity utilization occurred only if it was not unprofitable. Slowdown in drilling activity suggests that at current prices below $50, the US supply may have reached its peak. There has been a little bit upset with the message from Bloomberg stating that the restriction of production in Nigeria and Libya is not on the agenda of the OPEC meeting on Monday. Given that the two above-mentioned cartel participants, freed from quotas, are the two main culprits of oversaturation in the market, closing eyes to their uncontrolled production will become a rather discouraging news for investors. Significant downside risks for the oil market are not currently observed, taking into account the flight from the dollar, the growth of net positions in futures contracts (from 358.0K to 396.5K in the week ending July 21).Strong growth of prices will strengthen the chances for a transition to the ECB's more aggressive rhetoric in September, as president M. Draghi has repeatedly expressed concern about the low oil prices hindering the inflationary process. Asian stocks started a week with growth, European stock markets are traded in the red, as the beginning of the week will probably take place under the sign of caution and risk aversion before the Fed's meeting on Wednesday. The European currency retreated after the contradictory growth last week, as despite the lack of specific instructions and terms, the markets took Draghi's comments positively. Today's reports of PMI activity in Germany and the Eurozone turned out to be worse than expectations, which, coupled with sluggish inflation in the euro area and a rather illogical rise after the ECB meeting gives grounds to believe that the European currency is overvalued and expects correction. However, the rollback is hampered by the presence of downward risks in the US currency, among which are new details in the investigation of the president's relations with Russia, as well as the Fed's uncertain position regarding the reduction of monetary support and massive MBS and Treasuries portfolio. However, amid vague and cautious Draghi speech its likely that any logical in this situation rhetoric of the Fed will look more aggressive that will help the dollar recover.
Short
by Tickmill
EUR/USD Draghi's moveRecently the Euro hit the upper trend line of a massive scale channel down against the US Dollar. As a result of that event the decline of the pair began. However, that ended, as ECB President Mario Draghi began speaking at the monthly ECB press conference. The currency pair erased all previously suffered losses and surged back up to the zone marked by the upper trend line of the dominant pattern. Due to that reason market participants will be closely watching, whether the pair breaks the resistance cluster near the 1.1575 mark and begin a new, long term surge or bounces off of it to continue the already began retreat and trading in the dominant pattern's borders.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
BoJ depression seems has not yet abated.So, key points on the main economic events of this week were set forth in the analytical notes of its first half. Today, we can recap the meeting of the Japanese Central Bank and provide some additional clues on the ECB meeting with regard to the today’s data. BoJ announced that they’re not yet going to close valve of the cash pipe, continuing to pump the economy with liquidity. Interest rate and asset purchase program remained unchanged. However forecasts of economic expansion and inflation were revised. According to the report, economy should ease off so far owing to the export increase, i.e. global demand pickup. Putting together the indicators of domestic consumption the picture remains gloomy: Consumer confidence: Remains roughly unchanged from the beginning of 2017 at 43 points. The index below 50 points indicates uncertainty of households in the future. The household spending which correlates with the previous indicator shows a steady decline in the last two years. Business confidence rose to 17 points in July to the peak of several years and indicates the desire of firms to hire more and increase investments in fixed assets. However, wage growth, one of the key drivers of consumption growth, along with consumer confidence remains sluggish due to weak domestic demand. The increase in wages is for the most part announced only by exporters. The BoJ report highlights that companies are still in no hurry to raise prices for domestic products and wages accordingly due to negative consumer expectations. The Central Bank also promised to maintain the targeting of bond yields at the same level, thus controlling long-term inflation expectations. The inflation forecast was lowered, and the target inflation rate will now be reached only in 2020. In general, the report showed that the bank will adhere to an extremely dovish policy and is not going to join the Central Bank's ranks moving towards the normalization of the monetary regime. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the pairs CADJPY and AUDJPY amid growing divergence of Central Bank policies remain promising for mid-term long stands. The European Central Bank left key points of its policy unchanged at today's meeting. Investors are waiting for Mario Draghi to answer the exciting question: does the ECB consider that the European economy is ready for a tightening cycle? The alignment of forces before the Draghi press conference: The EUR / USD pair has taken a comfortable position at 1.15, European and Asian stock markets are growing waiting for the extension of the era of cheap money. EM markets have gone into red territory, indicating a speculative flow into European stocks before the ECB meeting. The focus shifted from the US dollar to Europe, data on unemployment benefits do not look like a promising report for adjusting views on the US economy, given that employment in the US is close to the maximum. UK statistics office has also released a report on retail sales today . The pound was completely tepid to th reading being under the control of other sentiments. Besides, retail sales have a very small share as a component of GDP. In an attempt to trace sustainable relationship with inflation, seasonal factors came into play- in this case, a hot summer period led to an increased demand for clothing. The indicator showed a three-percent growth in annual terms, with a forecast of 2.5%, but the contribution to GDP is only 0.1%. Precious metals are in negative territory, oil holds gains after growth on Wednesday. The EIA report showed a decrease in stocks of 4.7M barrels, but it did not have a significant impact on prices.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Tickmill
Upbeat Chinese data boosts oil bets, Dollar sinks The Asian session has paved an upward trend for commodities and stock markets after the release of spectacular figures on the Chinese economy. The growth in industrial production and retail sales, the two key drivers of the economy exceeded expectations, while GDP for the second quarter grew by 6.9% compared to the same period last year. Chinese data has direct translation to the Australian economy, one of China's key partners, which stirred growth of Aussie despite RBA holding rates low at the previous meeting. There is a divergence in the RBA policy and market outlook on monetary support and investors are likely to sell the fact of Central Bank's rate increase at the next meeting. AUDUSD continues to hit the peak after peak, holding steady at a two-year high at 0.7825 on Monday. Upbeat Chinese data suggests Central banks’ policymakers will be able to write off the impact of external risks considerably when forecasting policies and making monetary decisions. And if the Fed's caution fits with weak wages, in retail sales and underperforming inflation, for ECB it is much more difficult to restrain market optimism, as the current stimulus looks unreasonably bloated for the observed economic performance. However, the ECB has its own goals and plans. The elusive 2% of target inflation, which is still so far, is likely to force Mario Draghi at a meeting on Thursday to break the hearts of investors who made a bet on the fast tapering of monetary support. The current growth of EURUSD means only the weakness of the dollar, but caution for the euro, as confidence in European bank decisions would allow the pair to leave 1.15 level behind. The number of euro bets grew according to the CFTC data - net position increased from 77.5K to 83.8K in the week ending on July 14th. Combining recent ECB comments with European statistics we have the following picture: the ECB has focused exclusively on inflation and wants to see its steady growth to the target level. And since it is still significantly behind (1.3% in June), the sounding of plans to reduce stimulus probably will not happen on Thursday. Across the Atlantic, weak inflation, retail sales, Yellen's dovish tone thwarted the growth of the dollar. The June CPI fell to 1.6% with a forecast of 1.7%, which caused the dollar to fall and the uncertainty in the Fed's policy grow. The chances of a rate hike in December fell to 47.1%, indicating a rebound in bullish sentiment. The investigation of Trump's relations with Russia was supplemented by new details, reinforcing political instability in the US, creating pressure on the dollar and US stock markets. Futures on the dollar fell to the level of 95.00.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tickmill
EURUSD - To see a break of 1.1500 level?It was a truly exciting two day events on Tuesday and Wednesday this week where we have a 'gathering' of the major central bankers. Here are few reasons to believe that EURUSD can see a break above 1.1500 level in the near term - 1) Fundamental - ECB and Draghi are hawkish on the recent development and outlook on Euro; a potential tapering starting 2018. 2) Sentiment / COT - We have been seeing a rise in net position, and more importantly, breaking into the net positive territory for the first time since 2014. 3) Technical - We are seeing a potential formation of a 5-wave structure, with the possibility of a wave 5 up breaking above 1.1500 level. However, based on Elliott Wave analysis, price has now met the minimum requirement for a wave 3 completion (with confluence to an internal 5-wave structure on a smaller degree), and thus we are first expecting a shallow correction towards 1.1212 - 1.1075 area before another push higher. This give us a decent area to look for potential buying opportunity targeting above 1.1500. **Disclaimer - nothing is 100% in trading. Manage your risk and follow your plan.
Long
by KarYong