Draghi
EURUSD to 1.20?I think we will see a rise to 1.20 medium term in EURUSD.
Draghi seems rather unconvinced on quantitative easing. In early December his statement was extremely soft as to the extent that the ECB would be adding stimulus. The time horizon was extended to 2017 but I believe this is more to do with not wishing to provide many market shocks in a year of uncertainty. QE hasn't worked. Much of the Fed's QE has caused the problems that the world is facing in terms of china absorbing a lot of the extra cash flow. Technically, we have formed a weekly higher low after a period of consolidation. For me this can act as a key indicator that bearishness will not be sustained (it also acts as part of my trading strategy). Also, it could be argued that we have made a double bottom and are currently coming into a potential bullish flag breakout. Also, we have a big bearish inefficiency to fill to the upside, which can add to the feeling of bullishness returning.
1.20 looks to be a good target if using the 1.618 fib extn, but it also acts as past support and resistance.
Whats to come for EURUSD?Well.. doesnt need much explenation
still we are all trying to work out the implications of FED/ECB relationship and their monetary policy but one thing seems like the USD is not giving up!
making terrain across the majors today after the announcement could still TOO EARLY to call it and I am SOO! looking forward to hear from the CTF report next to see how orders and contracts performed over the FED announcement week but seems like USD long order owners dont really want to give up upon their positions yet.
we havent really seen any new positionament in the USDx so I guess this is because they still digesting and wondering what to do.
the LONG term picture still bearish bias as I am not expecting a break over 1,12 anytime soon after we retested the 1,1011-60 area over the past few days and it was empty of bids around there...
still we could see a reversal... either because ECB becomes more hawkish (sudently) or because USD long positions get trimmed off and some earnings are taken before Xmas.
too soon to call it but it will deffinetly be interesting!
Laying an egg in EuropeUncle Draghi laid an egg Thursday and sent the Euro ripping. We were hoping for a uniformed move but after some leaks before the ECB announcement the Euro had it's largest one day move in a bazillion years. There was no time to position your self so it was tough to get on a long trade. If you miss a break (like we did) the next best thing is to drop down to a lower time frame (5 or 10 Min) and look for a small pullback to get n board. This trade was done in one day. Again be tactical with all the so called "smart people" talking and making decisions.
CAUTION...fireworks a headIt's a race to the bottom on the EURO. Draghi is pretty for his spin talk...we are on the side lines until Uncle Draghi is done speaking. He likes surprises and since we don't we will wait. If you are in a Euro trade lock in gains and place stops.
Week 1 Nov'15 EURUSD Short Position Before NFPHacking the Fundamentals
Read the Link above for more a detailed writeup. But to summarize: Draghi is dragging the EUR down. The Fed is considering a rate hike on December. EUR is weak, USD is strong. Therefore we're just looking for a perfect spot to short EURUSD.
Hacking the Sentiment
Since all eyes are on NFP with many analysts saying that this could be the strongest NFP in recent months, the market is already starting to position themselves for a short on EUR. If the NFP/Employment report is within expectations or surprisingly better than expectations, it will validate an imminent Fed rate hike in December. This will make the USD stronger, bringing EURUSD down to 1.0800 support level.
Trading the EURUSD
It's best to enter hours before the NFP report. We must observe where the market is during that time and if there are opportunities to go short. From how the market looks right now, these are the possible entry points:
The ideal entry is at 1.1000 but the market might not reach that anymore.
The next ideal entry is at 1.0950. There is an expected volatility on Thursday dubbed as "Super Thursday" for the GBP that could affect EURUSD so we must let it pass first before finalizing if 1.0950 is indeed the best entry.
Since there could be a substantial move after the NFP report, I will not go for a partial take profit but aim for a full 1:4 target at 1.08.
Of course the report could disappoint completely, so I will have to decide where to place my stop loss prior to where the price is before the NFP.
EURUSD Struggling at Major Resistance ConfluenceEURUSD appears to be failing below a critical resistance zone which stretches between 1.1384 - 1.1442. 1.1384 is yesterday's high and coincides with the long term descending trendline connecting the July, September and December swing highs. 1.442 was the highest daily close in the Head and Shoulders pattern from 3 weeks ago.
We have entered short at 1.1302 with a hundred pip stop just above yesterday's high/major trendline resistance. We are once again targeting the multi-year low's and continuation (though we've been frequently disappointed of late!).
EURUSD- Medium/Long Term ShortIf policies continue to diverge, there will be strong fundamentals in place to justify a stronger dollar relative to the euro.
From a technical standpoint, the long term support line appears to be broken.
The 20v 50 day cross-over suggest momentum will be downward sloping.
Bearish MACD cross-over is not a good sign.
RSI may be over-sold but the down-trend looks pretty clear.
It is certainly possible that EUR/USD will rally in the near-term, but I think the break of the long-term support and the firmly entrenched down channel will prevail. If we go below Below 1.00 & 1.05, the all time lows will be exposed.
Draghi Extacy works great :) How long DAX stay in heaven ?TINA is doing great for stocks . If you look to the past , never before the DAX get 2300 points in 3 months.
Never before MACD has reach this high.in positive area. Only the crash from 2009 and 2011 we seen this before in negative MACD area.
So we are waiting for Draghi next step. :)
How you rehab this junky the next months Mario :)
$EURUSD Breaks Through Ascending Triangle Bottom$EURUSD Has broken below the ascending triangle bottom and looks set to break through the Double/Triple Top confirmation level 1.0720 (4h close). Another possibility is a rally off this level and a retest of 1.050 but we think this Triple/Quad Top/Double Bottom scenario is less probable. Look to sell any rallies into the broken triangle bottom or LT channel top.
$EURUSD Short Setup$EURUSD Appears to have failed below the #FOMC high, carving a lower high around 1.0950. Shorts valid with stops above swing high, targeting the bottom (1:2.5 Risk:Reward), continuation. Stop should be trailed if aiming for continuation.
EURUSD. Draghis Last Stand. Part 6. The EUR tide hits target.My longterm target is done. Faster then expected, but I was sure it will. Now it was hit.
But. Right now, I can see no end. Two possible points in the chart, but no signs that would support any of them. Basically the 1,07 is a "good" looking target, the 1:1 is the magic number target.
But. I am totally unsure where this will end. When I am sure Part 7 will come.
Best regards, hope you could profit a little bit. Hell of a ride so far.
Euro crushed 2005 low, now where next?EUR/USD has crushed 2005 low and now I would expect him to reach 0.38% fib (1.1212) or 1.0743 which has been a important level. Keep watching this 2 levels. However, I do not recommend to sell in current levels especially with Draghi speaking on Thursday.
Bellow the 0.50% (+triangle line) I am bearish: 1.2133
Good luck!
Thiago Duarte
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com
@thiagotrader
The Euro Is At a Tipping PointThe EURUSD is currently trading in a multi-year demand zone on the weekly chart. Since 2004, the pair has reached this area four times, each resulting in a nice upward trend. On the other hand, if this zone is broken, the pair could freefall.
If the euro can muster enough support within this zone (which extends to 1.1685) the pair could see a rather nice pullback to 1.22. Unfortunately, the trend and sentiment may only give enough room to shake the oversold technical in order to move lower. I expect the pair to remain in a downtrend in the near-to-mid-term.
I would look to short the EURUSD on a close underneath the demand zone at 1.1680 with targets of 1.1480 and 1.1250. This would be a position trade with a wide stop-loss to accommodate for volatility.
Some may wonder why wait until another few hundred pips – why not short now? Well, confirmation of a broken demand zone will help support another leg down for the pair. To break the zone, fundamentals would have to further breakdown, which is help support shorting, too.
For those contrarians out there, a short-term bounce is in order. The same support and resistances, as well as the demand zone, seen on the weekly chart are applied to the daily chart. Price action is resting on support and is essentially forming a quad-bottom.
Since the contrarian trade is going against the trend, stop-losses and targets must be reasonable and tight. Look for a stop-loss at 1.1775 with an upside target of 1.2025.
teachingcurrencytrading.com
The finish line is in sight. Mr. Draghi keeps helping us sneak closer to our 2nd target. He must be reading our posts ;)
Nonetheless, we have pulled stops down to where our first target was hit. We are so close to the 2nd target that we need to tighten things up. It would be foolish to get this close and let a huge swing take us out. This has been a great trade and has paid us nicely. Take a look at our past posts to see how we initiated and managed the trade.
EURUSD SWING SHORTSHORT SWING TRADE
he EURUSD is in a really good trend right now.
It has been in this range on the 60m chart for the last 3 weeks trending lower.
I think that this is a good trend and will be trending this way for the next week in the very least. The average trade swing length is roughly 36-60 hours with an average swing of about 100 pips.
I will be going in and out of this trend SELLING ONLY (I don't feel comfortable buying this at all should it fall lower)
This should be incredibly interesting to watch.
Trigger Trades - Precision Trading
Bracketing The EuroIt's been a rough go around for pattern trades as of late (I'll talk more about that in my Weekend Review tonight www.youtube.com) But if the pattern is valid and meets you ROE's then you've got to pull the trigger.
I'm still holding the 2nd half of my position on a EURUSD short from earlier in the week, but today we've got both a bullish gartley and a bearish bat bracketing this pair.
For news today we want to keep an eye on 8:30am (ny) as our usual Unemployment Claims are released and then once again at 3:00pm (ny) as the ECB President Mario Draghi is set to speak.
EURUSD Breakout and pullbackAfter BCE draghi announcement and break structure of 1.30 and chanel.
We might go down until new structure support at 1.2770
EURUSD. Draghis Last Stand. Part 4. Yipiiiaheh Schweinebacke.As can be seen in the chart the red marker was spot on. I do not paint these things just for fun, but when they hit the mark like this, it is extremely fascinating. :)
EUR/USD with 2 scenarios for the next weeks. As in the title there are 2 base scenarios for EUR/USD for few next weeks (Yeah I'm a wizard and I know it can go up or down :P )
Let's start with the short scenario
Techs :
Just simple plain Price Action.. new lows after new lows and then another new lows for 3 months ? Why would we try to catch falling knife..
Every support present on daily chart was broken in past weeks without any decent retrace and round level 1.30 which is also 50% Fibo retracement of ~1.20 move to 1.40 might work as an magnet. Same as 1.40 level worked few months ago.
Fundamentals :
That's what makes most of us belive that EUR/USD will continue droping... maybe not in a straight line but it should drop further.
Rates... FED starts to talk about rate hikes while ECB might dump rates even lower at one of its next meetings.
Every single economic data... Unemployement ? Euro Zones has almost twice as much as USA ( 11,5% vs 6,2%)
Inflation ? That's the biggest issue in Euro Zone, Firdays data should point down to 0,3% YoY vs around 2% in USA.
GDP which was the big issue in USA at Q1 of 2014 ? That's still around 2,5% YoY vs 0,5% in Euro Zone.
Then we should remember about Mario Draghi and what he said about ECB doing whatever it takes to fight deflation threats.. there are talks about anothe rate cuts or ABS easing program to be anounced soon by ECB.
Then comes the Long Scenario.
Techs:
We can mark an ABC correction after 5 wave upmove from 1,275 to almost 1,40 which is about to end at current levels. There's also an demand zone present around 1,312-3 level which should provide some support for any long scenarios.
There "should" be an correction after droping 8 figures from last top and when should it start ? Exactly now when everyons is shorting and that pair is oversold
Fundamentals :
I can't find any reasonable fundies supporting EUR/USD upmove to be honest.. end month flows and position closing might give it some love in next 2-3 days but that's not something to look forward in next days or weeks.
EURUSD - Down BoyThe ECB monetary policy press conference is almost here. I believe that Draghi will use this opportunity to push the Euro lower. The inflation rate doesn't look good at all. I believe that he will say nothing in the first part of his speech, creating some volatility and drag the euro down in his second part (or so I hope :) ).
From the technical perspective the price is now sitting at 1.3370, local support. A drop and close below this level would signal a drop (I believe that 1.33 can be a target). If Draghi will not take a dovish side, then we might see the Euro rally above the trend line of the current channel, targeting 1.3400.
