Darden Faces Dining Divide: Lower-Income Consumers Pull Back Darden Restaurants ( NYSE:DRI ), the parent company of popular chains like Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, is experiencing a shift in consumer behavior that reflects broader economic trends. While lower-income customers are cutting back on dining out, wealthier diners are showing an increased appetite for restaurant meals.
CEO Rick Cardenas revealed that diners earning below $75,000, particularly those below $50,000, are noticeably reducing their visits across Darden's brands. This trend, attributed to an "ongoing" shift, is most evident in the company's fine-dining segment, marking a return to pre-pandemic consumer patterns.
However, there's a silver lining for Darden ( NYSE:DRI ) as affluent customers demonstrate a willingness to dine out more frequently. At LongHorn Steakhouse, for instance, higher-earning patrons are not only visiting more often but also spending more per visit. This disparity in consumer behavior underscores a widening dining divide influenced by income levels.
Despite facing headwinds in certain regions like Texas and California, Darden ( NYSE:DRI ) remains resilient. The company has adapted its strategy by scaling back on deep discounting and heavy promotions, instead focusing on marketing efforts and brand equity building. This shift signals a departure from pre-pandemic tactics and a commitment to long-term pricing strategies.
While same-restaurant sales experienced a slight decline across Darden's brands, Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse still showcased resilience. Despite a drop in foot traffic, both brands saw an increase in average check size, indicating a balancing act between consumer spending habits and dining preferences.
Technical Outlook
The price of DRI shares has decreased $11.34 since the market last closed on Thursday, March 21. This is a 6.50% drop. but a Revival might be possible for NYSE:DRI which is up by 0.47% on Friday morning trading. NYSE:DRI has a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 38 indicating selling pressure on the ticker.
DRI
DRI Darden Restaurants Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold DRI here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DRI Darden Restaurants prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 160usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $4.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
DRI Darden Restaurants Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of DRI Darden Restaurants prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 160usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-7-21,
for a premium of approximately $2.67.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
The last hurrah is here. All aboard to 2400As projected yesterday, Intermediate wave 4 could be complete based on the early morning low on June 8. There is a slim chance Minor wave B inside of Intermediate wave 4 is the current location, but that will be invalidated if the index goes above 4300 tomorrow.
To recap. Intermediate wave 1 was 25 trading days and gained 360.62 points. Intermediate wave 2 dropped 121.2 points over 12 days for a retracement of 33.61%. Intermediate wave 3 then gained 251 points over 21 days which was a price extension of 135.99% from the starting point of Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 4 was likely completed today and would have retraced 15.22% of wave 3 by only dropping 38.21 points over 3 days. I am surprised by the accuracy of the models to project such a shallow drop over very few days in Intermediate wave 4 but the historic data was spot on. I put is in Sub-millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave B, Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 5. I use shorthand to call it 152BC5
Intermediate wave 5 must now be less than the 21 days of Intermediate wave 3 as wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. Based on models ending in 2BC5, strongest model agreement is on wave 5 to last 2 or 17 days, second most agreement is at 4, 5, and 18 days. The quartile movement extensions based on Intermediate wave 3’s movement (light blue lines) are 121.05%, 153.2%, and 186.17%. The first quartile of all historic movement reverses after a move to the 121.05% level which is 4352.12. The median movement reverses after a move to the 153.2% level which is 4432.81, while the third quartile is at 186.17% which is 4515.57.
Based on waves ending in BC5, largest model agreement places the length at 5 trading days in length, second most agreement is 6 and 18 days, third is 3, 4, 10, and 12 days. The quartile movement extensions (yellow level) are 122.06%, 137.71% and 153.2%. Final projections are based on waves ending in C5 where largest model agreement has the length at 4 days, second most at 6 days, third most at 5 days, fourth at 12 days. The quartile retracements (white line) 109.46%, 122.9%, and 151.06%.
There are also two major resistance lines in play. One stems from the end of Primary wave A from December 1, 2022 and aligned with the Intermediate wave B top from Primary wave B on February 2, 2023. The other trendline has been solid resistance since February 21st and the market never closed above it since then. If this second trendline proves the fatal resistance, it could be tested as late as June 26 around a level of 4352.12. If the first resistance line is the fatal level it could be around 4393.93 and achieved as soon as the day of the next Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.
I dramatically call this next top a fatal level in that I expect it to be the final market top for many years. This will be the end of Cycle wave B and a continuation of the Bear Market which ultimately topped on January 4, 2022. I am projecting the length of Intermediate wave 5 to last between 4 and 12 trading days. I have three key dates which could contain the top based on the historical data above. Day 4 is the next Federal Reserve rate decision on June 14th. Day 11 is June 26th where nothing major appears to be occurring which is the same on July 5 or Day 17. I do not expect the top to surpass 4410 and could possibly top out around 4393. 4393 is within 100 points from today’s close which means Intermediate wave 5 will likely be very fast. The TVC:VIX is very low right now and a huge indicator of complacency in an economy that is quickly slowing and on the immediate verge of higher inflation and/or recession. A break above the second mentioned resistance trendline may get the bulls fired up but I am 95% certain it is a false breakout and bull trap.
My initial calls for the bottom are around December 2024 somewhere between 2200-2400. I have been projecting this entire run up and final bottom since July of last year with pretty decent accuracy. I am using math, statistics and history to project forward market movement. I have figured this next drop could revolve around China taking Taiwan and disrupting the world’s microchip supply. Not sure if this happens next week but it could still be an issue that further escalates the selling over the next 12 months. There is a chance the US economy is heavily impacted now that students must continue paying their student loan debt and thus not spending money on luxury items or other facets of their daily lives. There is also a chance of Russia doing something exotic in Ukraine to attempt to upend the conflict. And as always the other black swan event most people have not seen coming. Metals will likely become more expensive and most companies selling luxury goods that are not necessary will get crushed (I am thinking NYSE:DIS and NYSE:DRI here). Casinos and gambling websites could have issues sometime next year when money starts to get very tight and people can not afford to make the gambles they will likely take in the beginning. Some companies will outright fail and go bankrupt while others will be forced to slash prices to remain relevant once the world comes out of this recession. Don’t panic, invest wisely.
$DRI Chart Breaking DownWhale opened 500 JAN 100 puts and upon checking, noticed this chart looks pretty bearish IMO.
I'm swinging JUN 100 puts tight stop as I'm looking for a quick flush now that support has been breached. Any squeeze up is a better entry to short IMO, this chart is pretty ugly.
Gap Fill below is target in the short term at 103.16
DRI: Trend Channel Break and DropSince March 26, Darden has been in an extended downtrend which just violated its regression channel for multiple trading days. This has all happened despite the S&P 500 rallying nearly 5% to all time highs over that period.
Respect the channel, and short with confidence. Remember, we did this a few weeks ago with PLTR (Palantir), and the retail cult crowd was out in force to tell me I was an idiot. Guess what? Math won, and PLTR has tanked by nearly 20% in the last 3 weeks. Some non-professional investor's opinion about "fundamentals" based on things they read in the public media is unlikely to be any sort of edge under even the soft form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
But channels and trend following have a long history of success.
Here would be a response to the fundamentalist crowd:
1. All the possible good news around reopening is priced in, yet DRI is still in an extended downtrend.
2. COVID variants make moving past COVID problematic
3. Anti-vaxxers are holding the economy hostage, and this especially effects stocks like this that own fast casual restaurants.
Bullish on DRI(This is not financial advice)
Hello everyone, haven't seen much for swings this week. This is partly due to it being a little bit choppy and not a swingers market. I haven't done any FA on this stock but it has been continuing a uptrend for a while now in this strong upwards support and resistance. I would swing from the bottom of this support and back up and maybe buy puts back down pretty confidently. I'm also watching the volume because as it enters certain amounts it often pumps up.
If you agree or disagree be sure to leave a comment and like and follow. If you have any stocks I should check out let me know!
- Thanks!
- Vlaire
DRI - Buy the Pullbacks Buy the FearDRI BUY THE FEAR BUY THE PULLBACKS
ENTRY 65-71
1st Target = 618 @89
2nd Target = 106
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
DRI - Let's Go Out For A BiteDRI had a gap up on an earnings announcement back on March 21st. The top of this gap became support while the stock price continued to rise. This rise in price created a bearish divergence with the RSI indicator.
The earnings release in September led to a gap down. The price actually consolidated just below the March gap. Friday's trading has the price testing the resistance level of the March gap zone with the stock finding strength.
DRI is finding relative strength within the Restaurant industry but still needs some more time to see if it is gaining strength on the SPX. If the price continues to rise I would expect a re-test of the bottom of the gap down zone around $122.
Take Away: Restaurant Spending Continue to DeclineSeptember's retail sales increased less than expected, partly due to the 1.8 percent decline in restaurant spending. This was the worst decline since 2016. Partly blamed on Hurricane Florence, that static is likely to be tuned out and the trend of mean reverting to continue after Q2-18's record $3.5B in sales - the strongest in almost 30 years.
BLMN is expected to report earnings of .07 cents on October 29, but we should focus on the reality that comps are likely to disappoint following such a great second quarter. We're seeing weakening comps in strong companies like DPZ and DRI.
Moreover, Bloomin' has board & mgmt issues that remain unresolved.
I believe their is more of a macro play to restaurants, though. Real consumer spending has outpaced real disposable income two of the last four months, but there has been little movement in disposable income. Furthermore, food and beverage spending has followed both the trajectory of U.S. inflation and growth gains since the 2016 election.
Q4-18 could be a difficult one for U.S. consumers and restaurant spending could decline in order to fund other consumption.
Earnings matter, but this is a trend call.
DRI SHORT - She's ready to drop! DRI is ready to drop - she's got the negative price action going on and she has closed below the 9 day moving average. Her closest support point isn't until she starts approaching the 50 day moving average at around 76.20. That's where I'll be targeting. Stop loss/invalidation 83.50 -
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