Wheat Holding at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat Aligning with SupportWheat 2 years after topping out at the PCZ of a Bearish Shark that initiated a downtrend in 2022, has now come back to the top side of the range wheat traded in between the years of 2016 and 2020 before ultimately confirming the bottom at the PCZ of a Bullish Deep Gartley in 2019 and breaking free to the upside of the trading range in late 2020.
Now that wheat has found its way back down here at this previous resistance zone, we can see that it has formed a Bullish Bat structure on the way down which aligns with the old resistance and that it is currently attempting to be supported by the 200-period moving average on the 2-week timeframe. We can likely assume that as the Baltic Dry Index continues higher, wheat will regain it's 2021 highs along with many other agricultural goods and that this will have an inflationary effect overall.
In the related ideas section I will leave a setup for BDRY which is the ETF that tracks the Baltic Dry Index and I will also leave the DBA which is an ETF that holds the futures contracts for various different agricultural goods such as corn, wheat, sugar, and more related items. I will also leave setups for two Dry Bulk and Containership Charterers.
Lastly I will provide my harmonic Inflation Rate projections.
Drybulkshipping
CMRE: Looking to Bullishly Breakout with the Dry Bulk IndexCostamare has a history of following the moves of the Baltic Dry Index which tracks the charter rates of various different Dry Bulk Ships and recently we've seen BDRY (the ETF that tracks the BDI) double in value and it has taken many marine shippers up with it but CMRE despite trading at good valuations is yet to move out of its trading range which is typical for this stock as it usually moves just a bit slower than the BDI.
When comparing the two you can see the BDI has already broken out and is heading for the highs but CMRE has not made any meaningful moves up, however it is attempting a breakout with some hidden bullish divergence it formed at the previous support and is now above the 55 and 200 week moving averages.
If it follows the move the BDI has made we could see CMRE come up to test the 61.8% Retrace at $16.62 or the 0.886 at $22.45 at this point in time that would open up the possibility of an ABCD move being completed to the upside that could lead it all the way up to $38.40.
I will leave below some Related Ideas within the sector and the chart of the Baltic Dry Index ETF (BDRY)
DBA: Bullish Abandoned Baby on Agriculture Futures ETFThe DBA Agriculture Fund is an ETF that has futures exposure to various different commodities including: Wheat, Corn, Sugar, Live Cattle, Lean Hogs, Cotton, Soybeans, Coffee, and others. As of right now the fund has recently pulled back due to a Bearish Test of the Bearish Bat PCZ but during this time it has formed what looks to be a Cup with Handle and has confirmed a Bullish Abandoned Baby off the 200-Day SMA with Bullish Divergence on both the MACD and RSI. With all these factors being considered along with the recent dramatic increase in charter rates across the containership and dry bulk segments, I think it is very likely that we will see the pricing of these commodities rise once more and likely break significantly above any of the bearish zones.
IMPP: Potential Bullish Consolidation In Certain ShipownersWith BDRY (The Baltic Dry Index ETF), finally going up, we may start to see more shipper stocks go up. We've already started to see an uptick in SB, GASS, TK, and TNK, now we might start to see some action across the entire sector.
I still would want to focus on those that are giving us at least a somewhat decent pattern, and IMPP in this case is both cheap and has potentially formed a Double Bottom with Bullish Divergence above the previous level of resistance. Given that it focuses on Oil and owns Ships, I think it can start rising with the Baltic Dry Index, especially if we get more demand for oil in the coming months.
Teekay Tankers: Bullish Cup with Handle Targeting $61.82Teekay Tankers is a Marine Shipping company that is a Subsidiary of The Teekay Corporation, and it mainly focuses on the Shipping and Storage of oil. Recently, the BDI has begun to rise, and oil demand has picked up, leading to increased demand for dry bulk shipping. Despite this one already being up a bunch, I do think it has formed a nice enough Cup with Handle pattern here to try and play for a measured move breakout up to around $61.82.
Safe Bulkers: 3 Rising Valleys Into a Bull Flag Bullish BAMM Safe Bulkers has formed 3 Rising Valleys with Hidden Bullish Divergence, and on the 3rd Valley, it seems to have formed a Bull Flag. Once it breaks out of the Bull Flag it will enter a Bullish BAMM that could take it up to the 0.886 all the way up to the 1.13 Extension as it enters an Alternate Bat Bullish BAMM.
Dry Bulk Shipping ETF to Rise as Export/Import Prices IncreaseBDRY the Dry Bulk Shipping ETF, which is tied to the Freight Rate Futures Contracts of the Various Ship Sizes, is now looking to rise again as both the Import and Export prices continue to rise, especially within the Natural Gas and Fuel category.
We have Confirmed Bullish Divergence on the RSI, MACD, and PPO; all while the PPO has begun to give us a Bullish Confirmation at the HOP level of this Bullish Deep Gartley on the Weekly Timeframe. As a result, I will now be expecting to see the market price of this ETF go up at an extreme rate as the Shipping, Freights, and Carrying Costs begin to rise.
I will be looking at individual Dry Bulk Shipping and other International Goods Transportation stocks such as ADM, GASS, and DLNG
BDRY Expected to Rally Towards 38.50Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. The ETF BDRY held its overall uptrend despite failing to break through the 30.75 resistance level on the previous two occasions. Support for BDRY is observed around the 23 price level. Expectations are for the ETF to break above 30.75 resistance on its 3rd attempt and rally towards 38.50. To negate this view BDRY needs to decline towards the 22.75 price level.
Technical Indicators
BDRY is currently above its short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The moving averages are trending higher as the short term MA is trading above the medium term MA and the medium term MA is trading above the long term MA. Also there has been a positive crossover on the short and medium term MAs. BDRY’s RSI is above the 50 level and there has been a positive crossover on the KST.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 22.75 and a target of 38.50. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.46.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
$CTRM Castor Maritime: The cup is starting to take shape! $$$$$$CTRM, company in the dry bulk shipping sector. Currently expanding considerably in material. In the coming days we can expect earnings from this great company with potential. We also managed to reach the 10/10 days for compliance by quoting 10 days above $ 1. The cup is starting to take shape and so all signs point to this stock being hugely bullish!