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According to the last 2 cycles, the bigger dip is to happen..nowThe last 2 cycles had ATH's in the first week of December; however, the way they got there was very different from each other. According to the halvings that followed each cycle, we reached ATL 546 days and 518 days in the last 2 cycles, and each cycle took 364 and 413 days to reach that ATL from the blowofftop ATH's. That would put our projection for an ATH of BTC around Oct/November. That means we're 5 to 6 months out from our ATH... Hey, would you look at that, 5 to 6 months out from the ATH's of the last 2 cycles were massive dips. Wonder what this could mean for us this cycle? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Ungovernable
19
Bitcoin 200-Day EMA Rejection Follow-UpThe analysis I posted yesterday about a likely 200-Day EMA rejection played out nicely. While the pattern played out as predicted, the fundamental backdrop got worse significantly faster than expected. Because of this I decided to leave my stop-loss as is instead of adjust for each price level. With how firm the resistance is holding up and the volume that we're selling I feel that closing my position at the 38,500 level (which would be the new stop-loss according to the first post) would be premature. I will break down my decision making process here: Chart Description Yellow flags indicate the position on each chart that the 200 day EMA was broken. Hourly chart shows 4 clear rejections of 42,000 after breaking down and a potential bear flag. Daily shows the sharp 200-day rejection as predicted yesterday as well as an approaching death cross. Analysis The first interesting move is a quadruple top after a support break. A key insight here is the volume bars during each rejection: 1 - relatively low volume with a higher volume pump off the bottom of the channel. This is about the spot where I made the post yesterday. 2 - high volume selloff which coincided with bearish news out of China. 3 - low volume bleed and reversal 4 - high volume selloff followed by potential bear flag. The reason I say potential here is because the green intervals have decently high volume compared to what I like to see for a clear flag. Although it seems to have dropped in the recent hours, this is still something I would like to confirm. The second item I'm interested in is the approaching death cross on the daily chart. The red line indicates the 20-day EMA is getting dangerously close to the 200-day EMA that is the focus of this trade. This puts bulls in a position where the clock is ticking down and there is no momentum anywhere to indicate that it can break over the resistance and hold it. I do feel like there will be a battle though which is part of the reason I don't want to move my stop-loss prematurely. With all this being said, I stuck to the plan for the profit taking and closed a small portion at target #1. I will be looking to re-enter at the top of the hourly channel and if we confirm a break below the channel. Since this situation is fluid it is important to be unattached. Although I am not seeing much for bulls right now it is important to not ignore something if it does pop up. For this reason, price targets and stop-losses may be getting adjusted as needed. If the death cross occurs I will be lowering my price targets significantly. As always, don't be blind to risks. There is still everything that was mentioned yesterday especially the unpredictability of news. If there is bullish advances re-analyze the trade and adjust as needed. Do not fall in love with a trade even if it looks solid in the moment.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Seth-Goldberg
It's not a rollercoaster if it never goes downThis is a picture perfect 2017 scenario that we've been long overdue for. On the way up to the blow-off top in 2017, we touched the bullmarket support band 2 times. We have yet to touch it. The OBV or on balance volume is coiling up similarly, the RSI has been diverging similarly, and the recent price action has been dropping similarly. If there is a time to touch this and get it over with, I'd suggest it be now; however, I think there's going to be too many antsy folks to allow it to drop that far for now. So we'll just kick the can down the road and eat dirt later I guess... So 50k for now then up. And guess what, I'm still longing because 4-5B worth of futures expire on the 30th, and the majority of them are calls, and allegedly they're aiming for 80k. That's a stretch, but hey... buy BTC while it's cheap.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ungovernable
1
Best indicator of future behavior is past behavior - 43k or 33k Fibs check out, patterns check out, we're looking at 43k or 33k if this patterns tests out like 2017 before it moonshots to a blowoff top. Not all patterns repeat exactly, but the data is indicating that we'll be visiting a new levels that'll make you wish you were pulled out. One thing no one seems to pay attention to is OBV. It's been decreasing ever since Feb. As a good bud of mine said, if we struggled to get past 59k long before, what makes you think we'll do it now with a lower OBV? He's right. We need the long-time bears to invest and everybody else to reset in order to move past 59k for good. The only way to get the bears in here are dropping to 43k or 33k - still up in the air where the low lands before we reach our blow off top. 'Don't take it up with me. Take it up with the data.' - Benjamin Cowen For the record, I'm still longing BTC. What's a 30k BTC when it's going to be 100k+? May do a 50% hedge to get in at lower levels and double up on that percentage position. Expect fake-outs that'll make you think it's not going to reach 43k or 33k before a blow-off-top. Good luck!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Ungovernable
Y'all Ready For this As The GURUs Fool You?? 👨‍🏫 Familiar pattern??? Ready yourselves for this As the GURUs mislead you to the Slaughterhouse... The Wiping and Gnashing of Teeth is soon to come Doomers be warrened with no relief in sight. This is all a code of lies the Ponzi in feeding you as the good book of fundamentals truth were burned long ago and sacrificed for gains. Chanting "We want Tendies, We want Tendies and they were granted! But what cost watch Diamond hand P.S. Prepare Yourselves 4 Pride Obliterating Price Discovery (Not Advice Just A Delusional Ding,Ding) 🤤 #TheyBuyLambos 😂 #lambo? All this time I have been saying #LandThough 🏞🏠🏘 LOL What are your thoughts? Is it bad that people like to realize gains say "Cool! More Dollars now!" Or am I really the only person that's down to pull profit and even short a lot??? LOL No advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 6 years in the world of "CRYPTO" Bra Right now me and Dollars are cool even though everyone hates them and I am all good with for cuz up north CAD and EUR I can't exhaust hating everything but 🤷‍♂️ ANYTHING! "KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK!" 🤓 I am The Coin SLayer 😈👨‍💻
KRAKEN:ETCUSDShort
by BradySWilliams
88