This sector looks incredibly weak!XLB materials sector saw a nasty down day today despite the S&p500 closing positive.
Clear relative weakness is being observed.
One of the leading stocks in XLB : DD (Dupont) collapsed by 14% after issuing weak forward guidance ahead of their earnings.
If they're expecting softer demand from China you can almost count on contagion through the sector.
Dupont
$DOW $SPY #PLEXIGLASS Possible longsee full chart at www.tradingview.com
Dow
Entry $44.50
Target 1 $49
stoploss $42
Why?
Looks like we are getting sector rotation from tech to industrial and other beat up stocks.
If we contain to maintain bullishness in the market, this could be a big runner.
The Dow Chemical Company (TDCC) is an American multinational chemical corporation headquartered in Midland, Michigan, United States, and a subsidiary of Dow Inc. The company is among the three largest chemical producers in the world.
Dow manufactures plastics, chemicals, and agricultural products. With a presence in about 160 countries, it employs about 54,000 people worldwide. Dow has been called the "chemical companies' chemical company" as its sales are to other industries rather than directly to end-use consumers. Dow is a member of the American Chemistry Council. The company tagline is "Seek Together".
DD wants dem fitties too what a trendyDuPont wants to hit the 50 DMA too indicated by the purple box there.
Pretty weak dojis leading this current rally up, could call today’s candle a shooting star.
Nice random spot kind of start of this current rally shows 50% retracement right into the 50 DMA also.
Bingo
'Set It And Forget It' Trade In XLBXLB (Materials ETF) has been consolidating for weeks and looks like it's getting ready to make a move higher. With Squeezes on both the Weekly and Daily Chart this looks like a 'set it and forget it' type trade:
In a perfect world, I'll be looking for a pullback tomorrow where I can pick up the 58/57 Put Credit Spread:
Put Credit Spread
Sell 58 Jan Monthly Put
Buy 57 Jan Monthly Put
At the current price, you can nearly get a 1x1 spread is what I like doing. In this case (once again at the current closing price) risking $51 to make $49/contract. This is a trade I want to be able to put on and not have to worry about too much. Ideally, the trade will be near max profit far before the contracts expire. If you'd prefer to play an underlying, you can also trade DWDP which makes up 22% of the ETF. It too has a Weekly Squeeze setting up and its chart looks nearly identical to XLB:
Playing the ETF is just an easy way to play to movement of the entire sector which as a whole looks bullish. With the ETF you're less susceptible to things like news based moves that can affect an individual stock without affecting the entire sector.
Du Pont, new bearish correctionAn upward trend, which used to be a prevailing one is close to a revearsal. To prove this idea we use Chaikin Oscillator. It proves that the tendency is one step from a turn. The previous pick on the oscillator graph compared with the curent one used to be higher while the previous pick on the main graph is lower at the same time. Moreover, the fall of two recent days is connected with the resistance line, which had been reached. I suppose that it is an alert for short trading. The price has a fall potential of 2,5%. However, we should take into consideration the fact that tomorrow the company is going to publish its financials. If we face positive figures, than the stocks might rise. I believe if an upward trend appeares, it won't continue for a long period if time. Afterward we will see a downstream.
DD analysis Elliott Wave, along with company analysisDD has recently broken out, and seems to be in the process of it's own 3rd wave movement upwards. According to GuruFocus, the latest major guru trades have been buys with no sells. So the stock likely has some further upside potential thanks to the large shareholdings by certain major investors other than insiders. This would give further credence to the notion that the stock is currently going through a brand new 3rd wave of it's own, which when compared to the greater Elliott Wave analysis, would put this as another large 3rd wave after the first 1-2-3-4-5 and A-B-C completed their own 2 waves. The company is also completing a merger with Dow Chemicals, forming a new company DowDuPont. However, there is uncertainty about the potential of this merger as there are anti-trust issues, and economic questions in regards to the profitability of this new company. (source: Wikipedia) The stock could possibly climb through another 3rd wave, and then a 4th wave down before completing a 5th wave peak within the future.
It will be a goal to find a possible entry for this trade, initially as a day trade for the current breakout, and then later it may turn into an intra-day swing trade by locking in some profits, and letting the rest of the shares ride with potential for pyramiding later on with larger timeframes.
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: DUPONT BETWEEN MACRO MEANS, SHORT TERM RISKDu Pont trades currently within macro uncertainty - between 10-year (now at 46) and 5-year (now at 54) moving averages. Thus Du Pont has no trend long term basis at the moment.
On short term basis, however, price is trading below 1st standard deviations from 1-year (now at 59) an quarterly (now at 51) means, thus showing a clear risk to more downside, unless price trades back above 59.