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DUST

Gold Intraday TechnicalsGold has pulled back slightly, but still up almost 15 percent since 2016. Traders don't believe the current rally as they look hopeful of more central bank quantitative easing, which is exactly why gold has had its run this year; and it is why I have been saying fundamentals have been strengthening for gold for roughly 16 months. After gold volatility hit multi-year highs, it is beginning to moderate a bit. I expect it to remain elevated: Technically, gold downside may remain limited with minor trend and price support at $1,205 and dynamic support at the 72-4H EMA nearing $1,198. Deeper support levels are seen at $1,190 and $1,177. Volume has tapered off since the Feb. 11 high, but positive bars still remain on top. Near-term resistance can be seen at $1,214, while stronger resistance is $1,220. If gold can retake these levels, price action would challenge the recent downtrend from the recent high. At that point, bulls can look toward $1,240. What has been beneficial is that gold has been able to work off its highly overbought level while still remaining about key support. This Friday, traders are anticipating the US preliminary GDP print. Consensus is at a nauseating .4 percent, following Q4 .7 percent that is likely to be revised lower. Even if the prelim data meets consensus, it would be over two percent lower than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. Not only is it ironic that the Federal Reserve's first rate high in seven years was in a corporate profits recession and sub-one percent growth, but it also could have been done going into a recession. Way to go, Janet! Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
FX:XAUUSD
by CommoditiesTrader
Gold Miners Run Up to Key ResistanceGold mining stocks have been trending higher, along with the overall U.S. equity market, of late. The recent support in gold prices allowed the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) a strong close last week, pushing 15 percent off the November 18 low. Gold mining stocks really get a pass from traders, and it is still early to determine whether the move will last or not. And, this could depend largely on whether or not the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy for the first time since 2006. If the Fed does hike rates, gold prices could suffer. Currently, GDX has been able to close around the 50 percent Fib. retracement on the October 15 high. The daily candle closed near the top of its range on strong volume. The ADX is ticking upwards with a concurrent upward movement in + DMI, and this can garner stronger upside potential. Conversely, the GDX could see resistance at the 50 percent Fib. level, which also coincides with trend resistance (broken support). A reversal at current levels could send the mining ETF $14.20/00, while deeper price support lies at $13.38. Further upside momentum would cause the GDX to test the larger, downside trend line between $15.50 and $15.75. If the Fed fails to hike rates in a mere week, the GDX will retest the 200-daily EMA. Stock pickers could find undervalued gems in the mining space. Meera Shawn, Market Realist, points out that some miners have down quite well this year: Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), up 11.2 percent; Centerra Gold (CG), up 31.2 percent and Alacer Gold (ASR), up 8.4 percent versus a 23 percent decline in GDX as a whole. It is important when choosing commodity producers to look for strong balance sheets and low operation costs. This helps producers whether pricing declines Please follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com
AMEX:GDX
by CommoditiesTrader
1
Gold Surprises as Dollar Gets Monkey-Hammered LowerIn " Gold Leaps Higher as Worries Mount ," I briefly pointed out how those very same institutions that championed quantitative easing policies implemented by the Federal Reserve are now coming out to proclaim quantitative easing added no substantial benefit to the real economy . Gold was pushed lower on the assumption that central banking policy would all pan out and that the U.S. would finally achieve escape velocity; but the exact opposite is occurring. Despite the near 12 to 16 months of absolutely horrendous, even recessionary data, market participants believed that if the Fed began to tighten monetary policy then the economy must be alright. Central bankers,misguided by classroom academics and abhorrent to real world economic dynamics, believe that if you tinker with interest rates that somehow inflation will magically begin to rise. Not so because it is real, meaningful growth that produces inflation; and it is more evident now that the these policies do not produce meaningful growth. I mapped out the dollar's downward trajectory, which was largely based on the floundering economy and the inability for the Fed to take action that will pop asset inflation. I still believe this is based on the above factors and that the dollar will likely gather strength as the US slips into deflation. Traders and CNBC pundits think that if deflation takes hold then gold will surely decline into the abyss. And just like their "lower gas prices equal booming consumer spending" myth, gold falling off a cliff during deflation is just as preposterous. Gold is unique in that if can act like an insurance policy against both sides of tail risk (inflation and deflation). It is well-known that gold had a massive bull run when stagflation took hold of the US during the 1970s. Inflation ran amok. However, nobody mentions that gold tripled, in inflation-adjusted dollar terms, during the early 1930s (the Great Depression) prior to President Roosevelt outlawing the private ownership of gold. As I wrote last April: " There is an assumption that the dollar and gold’s performance is strictly inverse of one another, but that is not so. The WGC (World Gold Council) indicates that between early 2014 and March 20, 2015, the dollar has gained over 20 percent while gold only fell 1.2 percent. Historically, gold prices more than double on a weak dollar than it falls on a stronger dollar. Thus, a stronger dollar is not indicative of massive gold depreciation. When the dollar declines, gold has appreciated 14.9 percent. Yet, when the dollar strengthens, gold has only fallen by 6.5 percent, according to the WGC. " If you look at this chart, you will notice one thing: gold sure looks to trend with the SPX. There is an argument that this due to simple asset inflation. Notice the massive divergence began when gold began to top in 2011. The divergence is what I call the "perception" gap. I expect that divergence to close. It's no secret that I was right about the volatility of 2015, along with other key macro trends. I believe by the end of 2016 and 2017 is when the real fireworks begin. Gold's recent move has been huge, and, of course, there will be profit taking. But those who follow me know that the underlying fundamentals for gold has been strengthening for some time. (Note: the gold chart is the same I used in the above mentioned gold idea, but the minor uptrend (along with new resistance) were added). Please follow me @lemieux_26 and check out my other ideas, which have links to previous writings.
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
11
SPY vs Gold Ratio at upper limitPast ~1.5yrs the ratio between SPX500 and gold (XAUUSD) has followed a channel defined by a 3pt trend line on top and its parallel 2pt trend line below. Currently close to its upper limit. The past 2 peaks were "resolved" by a short term increase in the price of gold, thereby lowering the ratio (increasing the denominator). Alternative resolutions include:, SPY can drop. or, they both drop but SPY drop faster. Also, see RSI of the ratio with long signal for Gold and short for SPY
FX:SPX500
by gb50k
1
Bullish Leveraged Gold ETFs Get Hammered – A Pullback Warranted?Given the large gains seen over the last two days, there could be support in the cards for leveraged minor ETFs following profit taking. NUGT, Direxion Daily Gold Miners, is the 3x leverage of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Price action is heavily to the downside, reaching support at $9.11 – forming a triple-bottom on the two-hour chart. Price visited this level on December 16 and 24, and NUGT is currently treading water. A short-term pullback is probable given the steep oversold condition, with the RSI at 16. The – DMI has ticked lower, signaling that downside could take a breather. However, the ADX is still sloping upward which is indicative of strong trend continuation. Next, the underlying benchmark GDX is showing the same negative sentiment. The chart, in many ways, is similar to NUGT. If the gold miners ETF can rally to the targeted resistance level of $18.46, this would represent a 9.51 percent increase in NUGT, or a move to $9.98 and just shy of the $10.08 resistance level. If prices can extend to the second resistance target of $18.74, NUGT could potentially extend to $10.33. Conversely, there is the likelihood that the intraday trend could continue lower. In this case, if GDX were to trade lower to the first support level of $17.55 then NUGT could move lower to $8.37 and break the triple-bottom support. A larger move to $17.35 would reflect a 28.5 percent loss in NUGT, causing the bearish ETF to fall to $6.48. As always, intraday charts are vulnerable to significant volatility caused by headline risk and potential outlook is only suitable for the next few trading sessions. See full post here: bullion.directory
AMEX:NUGT
by CommoditiesTrader
Potential Rallying At 1.49 | $DUST $BARS $NUGT $Gold #forexPREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING: - TG-Lo = 1.49 - 17 DEC 2014: Low-Prob Attainment, High-Prob Reversal - TG-x = 0.83 - 17 DEC 2014: Extreme Target/Invalidation level if breached - Bearish Entrenchment: 21.16/23.08 range FIBONACCI: - 0.618-Fib retracement at 22.81 into bearish predictive model's entrenchment ELLIOTT WAVE: - Point-2 results from a w-x-y-xx-z complex correction - EWP's Rule of Alternation call for simpler 4th wave formation PATTERN: - Bearish channel validation at/near predictive model values OCCULT GEO: Bearish impulse's upper and lower nodule draw core geometry at/near historical pivot ~ 14.00/14.14 OVERALL: Technically-driven bullish outlook. Proprietary pattern (Great White) call for rallying in this vicinity. Unwinding of price to the upside calls for high-probability Fibonacci guidance to standard 0.618 level. Volume spike likely institutional, acting much like stopping volume activity. This should be regarded as suspicious, in preparation of a probable counter-trend price action. Alignment of 0.618-Fibonacci with Model's bearish entrenchment adds credence to rallying target - Expect a temporizing event at/near 14.00 level. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
AMEX:JNUGLong
by 4xForecaster
21
High-Prob Decline To Wolfe 1-4 TP Line | $XAU $XAG $Gold #forexPATTERN PROFILE: Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves Pattern - Completed Target = 1-4 Line ("Take-Profit" Line) Trigger = 2-4 Line R/S action/reaction SL = 1232.55 PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: - Future R/S Levels: 1177.42 and 1165.85 - High-Prob Reversal: TG-1 = 1153.76 - 11 DEC 2014 INVALIDATION: BACA > 1232.55 ------------------------- Note: Recent analysis suggested a rallying into the 1231.93-1226.34 range, which held per forecast. At this point, a background Wolve Waves completed (see pink plots: 1-2-3-4-5). The pattern's 2-4 Line acted as support until a recent breach and small rally, stomped at the line's underbelly. Expectation here is a price compliance to background geometry, which demands further completion towads its 1-4 Line projection as dynamic support. Static support is further defined by TG-1 = 1153.76 - 11 DEC 2014, a low-probability attainment, but high-probability reversal target. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster ------
FX:XAUUSDShort
by 4xForecaster
36