DUST
Gold Breaks Through Support As PredictedGold breaks through strong support region, pushed down by positive macro news flow as predicted in my previous post. This completes the descending triangle pattern, was a reversal
The support region marked could be changed based on more news flow, will be updated regularly.
1.) More positive earnings surprises will likely follow
2.) Positive trade news is more likely than negative trade news
3.) No Brexit fears currently to support Gold prices
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Gold Miners - Time to Short?This was posted on my blog at gdxdaily.com last night, be sure to follow it to get notified first of any new trade ideas! The ideas will also be explained more in detail on the blog.
Trade summary:
Given recent macro updates I believe the short to medium term outlook for gold miners is starting to look bearish, this is due to multiple factors that will likely boost the broad equity market sentiment. Below are some of the reasons:
1.) Fed committing to their stance that rates are good where they are, and most likely won’t change it for the rest of the year. This gives investors one less thing to worry about since the rates are accommodative right now. With the possibility of rate cuts lower and rate increases back on the table, investors will be less attracted to gold.
2.) The slew of US economic data coming out so far points to a still healthy economy with good job growth. China is also actively injecting their economy with growth as well, so we may get positive economic surprises from their data as well, which will boost market sentiment and drive down gold prices.
3.) The fact that the US and China have a plan to resolve the enforcement issue for the trade deal (which was one of the biggest roadblocks) is a promising sign, we could be getting more positive trade news which will ease investor fears and drive more money flowing from safe assets to riskier ones.
4.) Corporate earnings will be the next big wave of data driving the market. We’ve had many downgrades on earnings projection so far in the last couple of months, therefore the expectations are already low. There’s a high chance for some positive earnings surprises, easing investor fears and more capital will start flowing into the equity markets. Once again, a negative scenario for gold prices.
I’ve started to add to my $DUST position, with currently 10% of a full position at an average cost price of $17.5, and will be looking to add more as it retraces. The entry points in the chart are general points where I think it might retrace to, but it may change as I see what the price action looks like. Be sure to check the updates to this post and my blog to see my daily update on any entries I take.
Gold/GLD Weekly Chart Video Shows What to Expect NextThis is my first video on Tradeviews and I'm still learning the software but I wanted to give it a try and share my overall analysis for what you should expect next in gold.
GLD GDX GDXJ JNUG NUGT SIL SILJ
I share my daily pre-market video each and every day before the market opens on my website
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Commodities and Transportation paint PictureOur ongoing efforts to dissect these markets and to help educated and inform traders has led us on an exploration path into the general market activities of two leading market indicators; Commodity prices and Transportation Prices. These two core elements of any regional or global economy are usually about 3~6 months ahead of the general markets. When viewing the Transportation Index, remember that transportation is key to any growing economy and a healthy economy. When an economy is doing well, the transportation sector will be busy shipping and delivering consumer product and staples as well as manufacturing equipment and supplies. When viewing the Commodity Index, remember the Supply and Demand equation where greater demand for commodities needed to manufacture, create, deliver or sell a product will drive prices higher as supply remains relatively constant, prices will increase.
Therefore, the theory of today’s research post is “are Transportation and Commodity prices telling us anything important about the future stock market valuations?”. Let’s get into the research.
First, the NASDAQ Transportation Index is painting a very clear picture that the upside price move starting near the end of 2016 drove prices well above historical normal ranges. Even today, we are well above historical ranges originating from the lows in 1998 and including the range expansion from the highs of 2007 to the lows of 2009. Given the premise that the Transportation Index would be highlighting increased economic activities across the planet and particularly those of more mature economies, one should expect that global trade/economic activity should be near all-time highs.
What we would expect to find to help confirm our analysis is the price levels of general commodities would be increased to match the renewed optimism we believe is growing in the global markets. Obviously, if the global economies are doing well and trade/sales are increasing, then we would expect core commodity levels to increase as demand stays strong which we have seen this happen time and time again during economic cycles.
GLD SLV GDX JNUG NUGT SIL GDXJ IYT XTN TPOR
Gold should fall to this support level before bouncingThe US Dollar is poised to rally back to near $97.50 as this recent downside price swing ends. We believe the US/China trade talks and North Korea deal with result in a strong upside potential for the US Dollar and the US stock market as time progresses.
A certain number of industry analysts are starting to announce the recent December 24th lows and subsequent rally as a “new bull market”. We have been suggesting to our followers that this market has lots of room to run as a continued global capital shift takes place. We do expect some price rotation over the next 3~5+ weeks in certain sectors – including the US stock market and Gold. We believe the US Dollar INDEX:DXY strength will continue to push higher, above $97, with the potential to reach near $99 before the end of this year.
Ive lost my wife... has anyone seen her? ;pI'm not going to point out where price touches these lines as it really is simple to see that these levels have been used as both SUPPORT and RESISTANCE, how do people not spot these? Do they constantly walk around with eyes closed? or more likely with heads in phones on dating apps looking for there next sexual transmitted infection ;p
It is so simple but yet people complicate trading or are lead to believe that you must have 1000000 indicators and lines on your chart to spot the next move..... WRONG!!! Look at our charts and you will see how clean they are and that we use NO indicators at all and only trade off support/resistance levels, Trend lines and the candles going into these levels... And we are not doing bad ( Which Lamborghini do I take out today? ) ;p
But honestly just listen too yourself, learn too trust your own setups, erase people out your life who are not on the same mission as you ( because they will only drag you down, I have lost my wife... has anyone seen her? haha ) And you will see an improvement in trading.
If you have any questions about trading or life in general then just send us a message and I will be happy too help.
Short GDX, Gold. Hitting $1280 resistanceShort GDX, Gold. Hitting $1280 previous resistance, 50% Fibonacci level. $GDX has hit resistance and cannot close above $21. Sold my nugt from 2 weeks ago. Now bought 1/3 of $dust for swing. January, markets may rebound, so metals go down. Will wait and see, Happy new year!
Jnug to Gold "final drop in bound"?I am expecting gold to move into its final drop and possibly bottom in February. Then we should get a very strong move up similar to the 2016 run. I do not see the start of the bull gold market. Just a large strong C wave up to above $1400.
And miners should also make a similar move as the 2016 run. GL
Jnug to gold Well I havnt done gold for a while now but it appears to me that a nice setup to go long is presenting itself. This ICL has been stretched but that just makes me more confident that I have a safe Jnug play here. I am not about to try to guess what kind of wave count we are in. However, If we have started our move down into the larger C wave then this move up could look like what I drew. However, It could also be the beginning of the end of the B wave which would take us higher than I drew. I will be just fine with a move back up to the 1300 range before reassessing the pattern. Jnug will do well. but I will be watching its movement along with gold to get a feel for how powerful this move will be.
Jnug chart
A drop is imminent in GOLDThere is a H&S developing that I've been tracking but the right shoulder looks ugly due to the FUD of the TradeWAR...but it still want to complete its full right shoulder...which now has developed into a rising wedge..with decreasing volume and RSI fluttering at the top...as the title states "the drop is imminent in gold" time to buy $DGLD or $DUST