Dollar support area and weekly bull divergenceDollar support area, bull divergence, and possibly #6 of a broadening formation (megaphone). Will it be enough?
DUST
GDX Long IdeaWell here we go again. GDX is at the lower side of the trading box. A buy here with a stop directly below should produce a good risk reward trade. It won't be a straight line higher, but could reach the top of the box eventually.
Jnug to Gold "bottom was on target, now where"So we bottomed at $11.37. I was thinking somewhere between the $11.50 - $11.30 range. So that worked out well. But it appears to me that we only completed wave three down and still have to do wave 4 and 5. So wave 4 should top a little over the $14 dollar mark before dropping to a much lower low...(too early to call but maybe in the mid $8 range).
Gold Miners Long Swing Trade
I went long on $NUGT after the test of key support today. I always keep my trading simple and this is as simple as it gets. I am recommending traders buy the gold miners above key support with a tight stop loss and a target near the upper resistance of the 2017 trading range.
Jnug to Gold "The drop is still not finished"Here is the 1 hour chart for Jnug. We are in the 5th wave down.....but we are only in the mini 3rd wave of this 5th wave. I wouldn't be surprised if Jnug hits below the $11.50 range. GL
Jnug to Gold "Down"So it appears that gold is finally rolling over. Jnug is already responding. On this 4 hour (and you can check the smaller time frames) it appears that this 1st wave down is complete. You can count 5 small waves down. Don't be surprised if we get a large 61.8% to 78% Fib Pop tomorrow for wave 2. Then I would absolutely be in JDST. It is hard to pick a bottom for this move so I gave it a try with the FIB tool. If today is the end of wave one, and if we only do the 61.8% retracement up, then wave 3 should be a little longer than wave 1, and then there is wave 4 32% retracement to set up wave 5. That yellow oval is not out of the question. This market has been very tricky.
My personal view of gold miners: going short.This is the view I currently favor. Ifffff correct price should not go above 25.71 (a). May want to wait for short term uptrend line to be broken. Daily RSI has a negative reversal followed by bearish divergence which often is followed by a drop. Process your way.
Ichimoku CloudsPlaying Trading Simulator Game:
Learning about Ichimoku Clouds.
Downward Trend Trading:
Used to SHORT a stock.
The setup is when the price moves down and through the cloud.
Wait for the signal.
The signal to SHORT the stock is when the cloud changes color.
Either have an exit price in mind or wait for an exit signal.
The exit signal is when the price rises above the blue line.
Upward Trend Trading:
Used to go LONG on a stock.
The setup in when the price moves up and through the cloud.
Wait for the signal.
The signal to BUY is when the cloud changes color.
Either have an exit price in mind or wait for an exit signal.
The exit signal is when the price falls below the blue line.
These are only my notes, they may be wrong.
Please do not take as advice.
Jnug to Gold "I think I fixed my cycles"A Little while back I was using cycles to help me with great accuracy, determine when to get in and out of both Jnug and JDST. Then it appeared to have gotton a little wishy washy. Well I think I got it back. If I am correct, we should continue to drop(not in a straight line) in Jnug until around the 18th or 19th. Coincidently the 19th is the day, congress votes on the budget for the year. I do not think they will pass it the first time through with all the border and DACA issues involved. I think gold will have completed its half cycle low about that time and Jnug should also reverse with gold. At this point gold has not really given a decent half cycle pullback yet. So if that starts this week, then Jnug will drop pretty well. I drew what I believe is a channel for Jnug. Lets see if that works. There is a good chance that Jnug drops to at least the 50 DMA and possibly a little lower during that last day or two of that half cycle. The 19th happens to be a Wednesday, which is the start of the next COT report. I cant tell you how hard gold and Jnug will run after that so we will wait and see. As you can also see...there is a pretty good consistency with the red half moon cycles. About 3/4 of the way through (pink vertical line) that half moon, Jnug will drop pretty hard as that also coincides with gold DCL (black Triangle). Its not perfect but timing the market is never perfect.
Jnug to Gold "New cycle started couple weeks early"It appears that a new gold cycle started a couple weeks early this year. With the slight higher high from the consolidation, that is what appears to have happened. I am still expecting a zig zag pattern so we should start to consolidate next week back down to the multiple moving averages before pushing up to finish the E wave. RSI 10 is very overbought and there was decent selling near the end of the day. Jnug appears to want to drop but it needs gold to drop with it to help it out. There should be another rate hike in March so I see this rally ending around mid February before starting its bigger drop. My original idea for gold to drop to the trend line area fell short and is still posted for all to see. I am adjusting the cycles on the next chart. Gold needs to break out of this large wedge (for me to change my view) which should be approximately $1349 range for mid February. After that it would also need to make a higher high than last years high. So in the mean time, I will be waiting for a decent dip in gold and Jnug.
Jnug chart
GOLD and its impending drop, short ideaXAUSD (gold) maybe close to a good short opportunity. Looks like a bear flag forming. I suspect we go sideway for a few days then drop down to 1220. Short gold using JDST for max payback.
Jnug to Gold "Time for JDST next week"Gold and Jnug are following along nicely. I do not think we are finished quite yet moving up. Maybe by Monday or Tuesday and then I see a nice drop for another 1 1/2 - 3 weeks. I think the bottom will be approximately the 1220 range for Gold. SO for Jnug....I'll guess that will equte to the low $8 range. Now what should come next is a very nice rally for a couple months. In a subscription that I get from time to time...today they released their updated charts for gold. I was pleased to see that they are also looking for a bottom in gold soon. They are saying for gold to bottom around December 22nd. BUT....then they are saying that this rally will take gold to what appears to match the top for 2016 (1380's - 1400 range) before making a daily cycle correction. That top is supposed to happen around February 22nd. SO their time frame is almost the exact same as mine ...however, I am no thinking that gold will go anywhere near that high. I am looking for gold to top at the $1305 range and then start finally continue the bear market. So I will be buying JDST next week and then turning around and buying Jnug for about 2 1/2 - 3 months. Maybe.... And then I will sell to see whose opinion is correct... Mine or theirs.
.
Above is the 4 hour Jnug chart. Maybe a little bit more to the upside and then a hard drop. I am not sure if Jnug topped today or if this was just a messed up mini 4th wave running flat pattern. On the 2 hour chart it looks more like a 4th wave so I am leaning to one more move up by Tuesday.
Gold Chart
Gold Weekly Chart..... Maybe we are forming a Head and Shoulders patter.
Jnug to Gold "nearly time for gold to drop into yearly cycle lowI am not going to go into depth as I have in the past. I am frustrated like many have been with the weakness in gold and with this sideways chop. This is the worst kind of market to trade. That being said, I see the yearly cycle drop about to occur after we complete the short lived minor "e" wave in the wedge that we are in. I have my price target for gold. I do not think that the Rate hike in December is going to drive gold up much at all. So if I can remind you, there was a rate hike a few months back where gold actually dropped and did not rise like it usually does. I remember saying that I was wondering if the lowering inflation combined with a rate hike would have the opposite affect to real rates and tank gold instead of the other way around and that's what happened. So I am wondering the same thing this time. This hike could be the trigger for the yearly cycle low to begin. SO now lets look at the Jnug chart.
I believe that we started the new daily cycle for Jnug on the 30th and should have some upside for the next week or two. But after that, I think this thing will tank with gold into the beginning of next year. At that point it would probably be a great one to two month buy as it has been in the past with the beginning of the new yearly cycle. I am looking for the Jnug gap to fill down at $11.87 and probably bounce/bottom at $11.60 ish range. After that I will have to reassess the upside potential for Jnug. As some of you know, I have for the longest time now, been thinking that we are in a very large corrective B Wave for gold since the 2015 low. If I am correct then what comes next is the C wave down. I brought this idea up to a youtube guy named Ronnie Fatel. He disagreed at first which was over a year ago. Then as this B wave took shape over the last two years, I made the suggestion again. And low and behold he is now making videos about my idea. I kind of would have liked for him to have mentioned me but he has a business to run. You should check out his videos. They are pretty good for Elliot wave analysis.
The next chart is a cleaned up GLD chart which is essentially a trading platform for gold. This chart is the one I use to show my long term idea. This chart is also much cleaner.
So how low do I think gold could go. I am looking at sometime in late 2019 to 2020 for gold to bottom around the $612 range. Ronnie was guessing as low as the $400 range. The point of all this is.....if after the yearly cycle low occurs, and we get a short 1 - 2 month bounce only to start crashing, then at least you can consider my idea at that point. So lets see what happens to price in the early part of next year and go from there. You can hate my idea and have all the bias you want. But lets just wait and see what price does. In the end, that's all that matters. GL
Short term short Gold Miners. GDXAlthough longer term I suspect GDX will be bullish shorter term I am expecting more downward correction. Hope this is helpful process your way.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Clean Chart Waiting for dust to settle- no hurryBitcoin: BTCUSD Do the Math another way
Whilst Bitcoin gyrates around and waiting for a clear pattern to emerge - no hurry - old bull mode, not young one - waiting
for dust to settle - here's a review of yesterday's tough-won 2% gains. Today ETHUSD has been clearer, so wrote on that in
interim. It's just a prettier chart right now, and more profitable too today, way better than Bitcoin, so far. So am waiting f
or better signal here. In meantime, consider, please:
If you can make 1% trading Bitcoin per day, just 1%, you will make 365% per year returns, buying Bitcoin three times over.
Every year. Or you can buy and hold. Or both.
One thing we learned last night was that support just above
7800 is still strong but that we need to keep stops under 7660 for now: we don't want these taking for they're the last nails
in the freeezer lid - the stops for long term holds at 7717.
Frustrated by the timings of Bitcoin's gyrations. If only it
would sleep. It was right to accept defeat at 8175 yesterday and look for shorts. The long was a waste of time, losing
around 10 points on entry at 8175 and on exit on break of the dynamic underpinning the day's lows. But sometimes it's OK to
admit defeat if that's what the chart is telling us to do. We could have been hopefully/stubbornly long still had the chart
not shown us that bears were beginning to smell blood after such a weak rally in low volume conditions..at least we saw it
coming and so day traders cannot have been the wrong side of this - but the levels where it was expected to bounce, 7938
and 7803, proved useless in the scheme of things. The low was 7876, some 73 points away from the ideal buy point. Rubbish
Totals
Apart from a very fast 100 points short early yesterday and then a very slow 10 point loss on the long (all day, it seemed,
as Bitcoin took a rest at Thanksgiving too) followed by shorts back to 8060 from 8165 for 100 points quick profit and then a
second short from this level with stops above profits were hard to come by yesterday...and short from 8060 is where it
went wrong due to having the stop way too tight - my fault: if I'd kept to usual 50 points this short back to the next level at
7938 at least would have been good. Right call, Dumb stop. Are you learning too, would be reassuring to know that some
of you are actually reading this never-ending saga.
So 200 points of short profits coulda/woulda/shoulda been
320 but for a stop. So that was mistake 1. Stupid stop
Next was an admittedly 'speccy' buy at the small double
bottom at 7990 for an immediate 15 point loss followedby another 20 point loss after a buy at 8210.
So the last 24 hours including today's loss have yielded only 180 or so points, maybe 300 if you were more sensible than I
was with a 50 point stop, not 20.
So maybe 2%+. On a bad day. So if you can make that on a bad bad day it is quite possible to make 1% on a good day. If just
less than one in three days yield 1% returns and th either two were to cancel themselves out between wins and losses it
would be very hardwork and very tiresome, but would still yield a rough 100% return on capital each year.
So far in the past month we have taken over 3850 points from Bitcoin long and short and got some bagged up in the freezer
too...maybe. Those 3850 are REAL points. Whether Bitcoin is or not doesn't really matter.
The only thing that matters here is points. Right?
Buy Bitcoin. Sell Bitcoin. So long as it moves, it doesn't matter. Isn't that the sanest way to view this phenomenon
right now ? More when the situation stabilises.
Jnug to Gold "B wave almost finished"The B wave appears to be almost complete. I still hear a lot of pros saying that this is the surge that we have been waiting for and that we are only going higher now. We will see. That being said I do believe that we will drop into the yearly cycle low. There really isn't anything to add. My previous gold post from a couple weeks ago is still how I see it. The only thing that may have changed is the date for the bottom. It may extend into January at this point. I think in the next week or two we should see who is correct. Unfortunately Jnug was not that strong with Fridays move higher. Is that a foretelling of the impending drop? Could be. We will see. GL
DXY Daily IHS and ChannelsRSI and movement look good so far. Small pullback could be neckline test. Watch channel for reverse or breakout.
DUST - 50% Retracements... Amazing!!!Check out each of these triangles and they're all at 50% from Low to High.
Test it out for yourself
Got to be a good way to predict and profit!$!
Jnug to Gold "not finished with the B wave yet?"If we are still in a triangle consolidation with everything being larger 3 wave structures, then the small b wave that we are in should not have been completed yet and we should move up to at least the 100% measured move to 1320 and possibly a little higher to the red zone. After that I really really feel that jumping into JDST or DUST is going to pay bigly. I think that gold will complete its yearly cycle low in mid to late December. I have another FIB measurement for that drop. It shows a low of 1207. I do think gold hits that very long term uptrend line. That would complete wave d. That means that the only thing left would be wave e. And after wave e then there should be a very large drop next year. ** (I understand that this is a bearish scenario and that everyone is still calling for the breakout to continue. I am not convinced. There is the slightly more bullish scenario that I am watching for that has the larger B wave for gold going up to the $1400 + range before completing the B wave. If that is going to be the case then gold really should do that move starting next week or over the next couple weeks. Otherwise its too late for this years move. And for gold to not make a higher high than the 2016 high, IS BEARISH).
SO once again I am attaching the GLD chart to show my longer term view. Its a cleaner chart with less lines but you will get the point.
I think that measured triangle move down for gold on this GLD chart equates to around the $980's level. And at that point I will have to reassess gold to figure out if gold will finally bottom there or make a measured move further down for the larger A wave move from 2011 to December 2015. A full 100% move for that drop would bring gold to $500. Eh..thats hard to envision right now. $612 would be would be the 78% move down for the entire gold rally of the 2000's. ......Too much wishful thinking right now in my opinion. so back to the present. Next chart ... Jnug
Miners obviously have not been following gold very much this last year. I am guessing that there are opposing forces at works here which is giving us the crazy pattern that we have. I think miners is being affected by both the stock markets bullishness and gold price. (TO name a few factors). I can't and wont even try to pinpoint what is. So the arrows is what I am thinking will be Jnugs movement short term. And I do think that Jnug will drop pretty hard with gold towards the end of the year. So it appears to me that we are just about to complete a mini wave 5 down. Maybe Monday or Tuesday. I am personally going to take a chance and buy Jnug around the $16.70 range and try to play a short term bounce. maybe for a week or two. Then I would get out. I do not think it will break through the red zone $20 level.
OK. Last caveat. The stock market and gold. This is really that part that is causing me grief with gold and Jnug. Will it just continue or are we going to get that 8 - 10% market correction. If we do get the correction, how is gold and Jnug going to behave through all of that? I just don't know. If the SP500 gets to around the 2600 mark then I may once again try my hand with the VIX. As for gold, I think it is safe to stay on the sidelines for a while to see what happens at the end of October or early November before resuming the gold plays. Maybe jump into ugaz (natural gas for the winter rally). Or maybe by then Oil will have topped at $54 - $56 and start its end of year drop (DWT). That's all I have for now. GL
DXY US Dollar Index - Daily Wave TargetsBasic measurements of Minor wave 5 and Intermediate wave (5) based on past wave lengths.
All targets and areas of interests are on chart. Not a trade, just using this for my trades in Gold.
