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EURUSD map: Down to 1.04-1.00 Then Up to 1.16-1.21EURUSD is in the second leg down to complete a complex correction (red down arrows). There are three crucial target points for drop to watch: 1) Valley of red leg 1 at 1.0448 and 50% Fib at 1.0406 2) 61.8% Fib at 1.0200 3) Touch point of the throwback to broken trendline around parity Next is the reversal to upside within the large leg 2 up (blue up arrows). The possible targets depend on the depth of the current drop, the deeper the lower the upside target. From the first point of drop EURUSD could hit 1.21 area. From the lowest valley of parity it could reach 1.16 handle.
by aibek
Dollar could be trapped within huge consolidationMarket corrections are tricky and in this post you can see why. Dollar index weekly chart shows signs of large sideways consolidation (aka flat correction, range) after a strong drop marked with the orange down arrow 1. This consolidation passed halfway as we can see all first moves are completed. The first major yellow counter-move is done; it will be connected with the last yellow upmove through two white and two red counter-moves. Why corrections are tricky? Because they last longer than many think, usually longer than the preceding move. Currently, first legs took the same time as the whole first orange leg down, therefore it will take almost same amount of time furthermore. After completion, the second orange leg down could resume to hit $93 (orange leg 1 = orange leg 2) or even lower to retest the valley of Y2021 at 89.6
TVC:DXY
by aibek
Dollar looks into the skyThere is much noise about dollar losing its king status in the world. The drop in the yellow wave b within a correction could have spurred that speculation. You can see that it was a natural move to retest broken former barrier. It was successfully rejected as the price bounced up quickly. The target for the next move could be around $125 where yellow wave c will be equal to yellow wave a. The next possible target is around $141 where yellow wave c will be equal to 1.618 of yellow wave a. Where do you think DXY would go next? -$125 -$141 -down
TVC:DXYLong
by aibek
5
Trading Idea - #DAXTrading Idea - #DAX Sell/Short after head and shoulders pattern forms! Entry: 15.290 (the neck line) Target: 14.937 (the head height) 1. the initial rally into the pattern is often associated with a strong rise. 2. the first shoulder forms where price peaks before falling back to a support level - the neckline. 3. once the market reaches the neckline, it rallies to make a higher high before pulling back to the neckline. 4. the market then bounces off the neckline again, this time making a lower high than the previous bounce off the neckline. 5. the pattern is only confirmed when the sell-off from the second shoulder breaks below the neckline, after which the target equals the distance between the neckline and the top of the "head".
XETR:DAXShort
by Traderherz-Analytics
2
DOLLAR RETRACE TO 103+ ON FOMC & NFP VOLATILITY ?COT: Dollar has weakened significantly since mid NOV-22 Driven by institutional selling of long contracts since begin Q4-22 Assisted by accumulation of short contracts sinds JAN-23 Outlook for Q1-23 remains sideways to down Next downside level is 99.60 FOMC & NFP: Before another drop below 100 big figure a retrace is likely 103+ will likely be mitigated in FEB 103 = mitigation level = GAP resistance = sell VWAP Begin FEB is pivotal week(s) with FOMC & NFP FOMC and/or NFP volatility will likely facilitate the retrace OUTLOOK: Will be monitoring price behaviour between 103.00 - 103.25 Looking for change of behaviour on the lower timeframe (wicks into mitigation-level) Anticipating a swing lower from 103+ to 100- after mitigation This will offer buy setups in the MAJORS, with a preference for commodity CCY's
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by xtrader1
1
Are Dax, Nasdaq Close to a New Collapse?EU and US futures are consolidating the gains of the beginning of the month. The exuberance was mainly extinguished by the interventions of two members of the Federal Reserve board. Mary Day of the San Francisco Fed and Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed reiterated that the campaign against inflation is proceeding without hesitation, and the minimum target is a rate above 5%, from the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. This is also supported by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The same line is supported in Europe. "Interest rates will still need to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels tightening enough to ensure a timely return of inflation to our medium-term target of 2%." This was stated by Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB governing council, speaking at a conference organized by the Riksbank on the independence of central banks. Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX Futures, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35: As written in previous articles, the indices are exhausting their strength, but are still supported by the rise in Chinese stock markets due to the reopening after so many months of containment of the virus. The recession, which will lead to a drop in profits, is not yet discounted by the markets. Recession Is Coming We will therefore see the real collapse of the market, and we must not be fooled by the increases at the beginning of 2023. EU indices will hold much better than US indices as the ECB is proving more dovish than the Fed. Furthermore, high inflation in the EU is destined to collapse quickly, thanks to the fall in gas prices. The ideal instrument in these cases is the VIX, also known as the fear index, which uses options on the S&P 500 index as underlying, with which it has a negative correlation: if the S&P 500 goes up, the VIX goes down and vice versa. Natural gas As predicted in previous articles, the natural gas crash has arrived. There is a clear difference between the short and long term profile of the market right now. In the long term, the situation is interesting. Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage. Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers. In the short term, the situation is negative. The European danger has vanished, with full inventories in the EU thanks to a very low demand for gas, due to anomalous heat, savings at both an industrial and retail level, and the energy transaction underway. In summer, however, the situation could be different, with possible difficulty in filling the inventories. In the USA, demand is low due to the weather and that is creating a domestic excess supply - negative for prices - which adds to the doubts regarding the reopening of some export plants, which have been offline for some time and which contribute to the oversupply. The Freeport factor will be decisive, one of the most important export plants which should reopen next week. Also the weather could continue to be an issue, as cold temperatures do not seem to arrive at the moment. In Area 4, 3.50 I still expect a technical rebound from the gas, with a target of 5. Crude oil Negative start of 2023 for oil prices due to concern from COVID-19 infections in China. While prices will suffer in the short term, the situation is positive in the long run for two reasons. The price cap, although not penalizing for Russia, could lead to an increase in demand for American oil - very positive for prices - and to a collapse in Russian oil production. Chinese demand for oil, held back by COVID-19, will restart in 2023 thanks to the easing of restrictions at the end of 2022. All this is combined with the fact that oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, with countries like Russia reporting sharply declining production, a factor that is good for prices as there is a shortage of oil. I remain positive over the long-term with a $85 target. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Bad period for the stock destined to continue There are problems in China, with lower prices, due to a weakening demand which means lower margins, and competition in Europe with Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA) is increasingly threatening. Also, Elon Musk is increasingly distracted by Twitter. The statements from Musk, who says that he will leave the post of CEO Twitter once a replacement has been found, were of no use. As written early in 2022, according to my model, the stock was worth $170 and was already very expensive at the beginning of the year. In light of the latest data, I am updating my tesla fair value at $85, a level where I will start thinking about buying the stock. Disclosure: I hold a Buy position in natural gas, VIX, and a US stock with big upside potential. For information on my services and investment strategies, you can write me on my TW
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by Antonio_Ferlito
1