DX upswing?If #dx #usindex can clear the mod schiff median it gets quite bullish - target the ABCD 1:1 confluence of regular fork median & mod schif UP
DX
DXY Dollar - Another Last chance Short!I did have a very similar headline recently and whilst it was near the 4 high, this internal wave ii offers another potentially last one that covers both the micro and intermediate degree within the wave 5.
On the larger degree it's important to note this is wave 5 of wave ii of 3/C. Regardless of the 3 or C counts, they both suggest into 130+ in the next couple of years which should shake up the monetary world as we know it with all of the dollar denominated debt out there.
Dollar Index. Possible wave count. Don't be fooled DXY could be in the last wave of the corrective structure before another big drop.
Current position is wave 4 of c of C of (4).
Short term weakness shouldn't fool you and I expect wave 5 to come and lift the index higher at least to the 91.50
where wave c=a, after that we should be cautious as another big drop would come
It is quite useful to analyse alter-egos (mirror) eurusd/dxy as you can find clues in one instrument, which is not obvious in the other.
I supposed quitting eurusd (see related) as I found the clue in the dollar index.
DXY - Completing C leg of Triangle 4DXY is in the zone for a C wave completion of the larger wave 4 Triangle.
An Alternate count would have it as a Flat or developing expanded Flat. In either case wave 4's are designed to obfuscate and trivialize opinions...my suggestion is be flexible as this 4 should knock out the bulls and build bears by the time the wave 5 is complete in time for an important turn up. Not now when everyone is sure that inflation is the driver and all bullish.
DXY - Pattern Entering last subdivisionsThe Dollar DXY and DX are now down into at least the middle of this internal wave iii of v.
Whether there's an extra set of lower degree 3's and 4's to deal with is yet to be seen, however, the chart says it best.
DXY - Potentially the Last Shorting Opportunity for YrsThe wave C of 4 is right into the target zones and unless punches through 91.01-20 zone I'll be looking lower in wave 5 of C of ii.
What follows is a powerful wave iii of 3 which should really test people's will by the time it's done.
DXY Dollar wave 4 of CPrice looks to be in the early stages of forming the wave c of 4 before down in wave 5 to complete the larger pattern wave C of ii...the ii is wave ii of 3 and a very bullish setup on the monthly basis. This 4hr chart just gives a little better view of the internals generally required for completion. Over 92-93 would shift the count into a directly higher wave 3 already in progress.
An Alternate count for the internal wave 4 would be a triangle that wouldn't reach as high as the simple zigzag c (90.20-70 range)...time over price pattern.
DXY - Dollar Heading Into Final Sub-sectionsThe US Dollar Index DXY/DX count has price in the final leg of the wave 3. Which leaves only one more set of 4 and 5 remaining once this 3 is complete possibly down in the 89 zone....with 5 completing in the 88.50-88 as the primary target to complete a much larger degree pattern wave C of ii.
Alternately, this could be just wave iii of 3 that requires an additional wave iv and v, but either way we should start to see volatility into the end of this wave C...with most players finally capitulating and swinging to the short side, typically in an area they shouldn't.
This pattern suggests that once this bottom completes we should see a Bull rally in the Dollar that waters the eyes into 2019-2020.
DXY Entering Volatility iv's and v's ZoneThis little pop down completes a clean 5 waves for the (v) of iii. Alternatively it completes the larger 3, either way it means some volatility in waves iv and v with two iterations to get through for the first and main count.
Once this larger wave C of ii is complete, this should be THE Bull market of the next few years.
DXY Daily Chart Reverse Head and ShouldersWatching the dollar to form the right shoulder of the reverse head and shoulders. Assuming that the low for the intermediate term has been formed, then this suggests that we are in a prime buying opportunity to test the long side for the dollar.
Dollar Index (DXY): Up, Down, Then Strong Up. W-X-Y correctionHello there,
It looks like we are in the final stages of the large WXY correction.
We could see some strength within the flag and then another drop.
But after that I think we would see a robust upside move in the Dollar Index (DXY).
Oil - Possible Sideways RangeFollowing an extreme drop from the 53 level and clear demand in the 43-46 area, along with a weakening DX yet likely rate hikes later this year, ongoing oversupply, yet continued promises form OPEC to meet the agreed upon cuts, I just do not see a catalyst midterm for a break up or down form the current range. 45.62-50.37 is a range created in '09, a swap zone created between harsh supply during the economic crisis and demand following the initiation and strengthening of QE in '09. This range has been somewhat of a median range for the past couple of years as longer term supply/demand is being realized.
Anyhoo.... I believe the main meat of the coming range will be roughly the .25-.75 levels of this range. This is not a specific trading plan, just a hypothetical scenario for sideways ranging with supply kicking in around 49 and demand around 47, please see the chart for specifics. Upthrusts towards the top of the overall range near 50.4 would not surprise me. If... this comes to fruition and prices see a couple of full swings int the range, 47-49 offer 200 ticks, and 2 full swings in the range would offer 800 ticks. It's possible that none of this plays out but again, I just do not see a catalyst short term for a larger break up or down.
If this range plays out, 4-8 weeks would not surprise me.
The stagger marks: if playing multiple positions, a portion are held from supply when shorting for the entire range and a portion for staggering are bought and resold at each line if it offers a pullback and vice versa for demand on the way back up. A simpler stagger method would be to just close half positions at the 48 level in either direction or to just pick your best risk/reward in either the supply or demand zone and trade the entire range.
Hopefully this made sense, if not, all questions and comments are welcome.
I wil add a couple chart over the next few days to show where the original 45.6-50.36 range was created in '09 as well as a Sept-Nov 2015 range that I think prices are ranging in the upper half of (43.85-49.55; I am specifically looking at the 47.04-49.55 portion of that range)
Good trading all!
Dollar Index Do or DieDollar Index is at a crucial point. We can see a nice bullish wedge. This mostly is a reversal sign for a strong wave up. However the Stoch indicator still shows enough selling pressure is left to push the price further down. ADX is a bit doubtfull about this, could hint at a reversal up.
So keep a close eyes on the dollar index. If the upper range breaks we will see a strong wave back up to 98. But if it breaks it will be a flush down to 92.
GBPUSD long off election news in anticipation of Fed.Logistic Wealth Management
Strategist-Tanner Elphee
6/12/17
GBPUSD sold off harshly after election results.
Me being the novice trader I am jumped right in off the first woosh bar. Set my stop behind the first wick and through the night it stopped me out.
In hindsight the stop was way too close and I really have no clue what is going on in UK.
I know the USD is expected to fall, if move at all, Wednesday after the fed meeting. That being said XXX/USD pairs should continue to rise like eurusd.
The whole situation is out of the ordinary and this setup looks too good to miss again. I've waited patiently and here is my precision entry. I'd certainly expect a reasonable fill between now and Wednesday.
GBPUSD short 50k
Entry 1.25708
Stop (no place particular) 1.26500
Target 1.295
Disclaimer - LWM is a fictional company at this point of time. Naming rights are not owned. The views and beliefs of current market conditions are not intended to be acted on without proper evaluation and understanding according to your own trading plan. Trade at your own risk!
GBPUSD LongGBP down harshly after election results. I am unable to relate the results to the ideology of this trade (fill in anyone?)
I have this pair on upside watch and saw an opportunity to get a discount. Jumped right on in. Kinda programmed to seeing these moves. Doubt it goes lower than the news release. Not part of the trading plan so in attempt of discipline this trade will be taken on simulator.
50,000 K Long @
Entry 1.2745
Target 1.2945
Stop 1.2689
Like and comment please!
Logistic Wealth Management
-Strategist VirginiaTElphee
Dollar Index RIPDollar Index on the daily time frame looks like it's set for a free fall.
ADX shows a very strong bearish trend and Stoch Rsi still shows strong selling pressure. When you look at the price levels its just broken through a resistance and it seems to keep trading in the fresh downwards channel.
With this in mind, stay sharp on possible sell setups on the dollar pairs. Also look to buy JPY.
DXY expected to be fallingUnless Le Pen wins next weekend, DXY is heading lower, because less and less demand is seen. Weaker bounces also support this idea.
DX to resume uptrend next weekAlthough I am a long term dollar bear, I think next week we see some upside. Maybe even new highs later this year. Daily divergence at a major support is what interests me in a long
Gold Weekly SupplyFear seems to be in the air the past couple of weeks and gold has been responding; I believe this will be short lived and I am looking at the Oct/Nov 2016 Supply/Demand exchange level for a potential reversal.
If prices find resistance at the 1238-1258 zone then I'll expect prices to retest the 1185 support level in the coming weeks and with a continuing strong DX, for gold to retest the 1100 level in the coming months.
Short entry: 1238-1258
Stop Loss: 1271
TP1: 1185
TP2: 1100
Good trading all!
Short term USD correction?DX at a major level of support with confluence from Fib and trend line. We will watch this level for a correction to the upper trend line. Use the majors and minors and look for correlating levels to take advantage of what could be a short term correction.
We are currently short EUR/USD from 1.0820 a very aggressive entry using this correlating analysis (therefore reduced risk), we will look to add in on further confirmation with T1 around 1.07 on EUR/USD
Dx looking for short term correctionDx is now at major support with confluence of fib level and TL. will we see short term correction and resume some dollar strength. Watch other markets such as eur, chf, jpy and gbp for USD strength.
