The USD saw a sharp reversal higher despite a 50bp cut, simply because the markets were positioned for a more dovish dot plot. I have argued in prior analysis the USD exposure is a bit stretched over the near-term, so perhaps shorting the USD is getting a bit stale. We also have several key markets at inflection points after a risk event. Matt Simpson takes a...
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against basket of other six major currencies, extends its losses for the 5th consecutive week in a row, hovering below 102 points during the U.S. regular hours on Monday, August 19. Over the past week, Gold spot (XAUUSD) has topped $2500 per ounce psychological high also, minting new all...
We stand back to admire the long-term chart of the US dollar index, and yes there could be further downside over the coming weeks. But a quick check on the daily timeframe makes us wary of jumping into an already well-established short, given potential support levels nearby and the fact everyone and their dogs seem to be bearish the dollar.
Market corrections are tricky and in this post you can see why. Dollar index weekly chart shows signs of large sideways consolidation (aka flat correction, range) after a strong drop marked with the orange down arrow 1. This consolidation passed halfway as we can see all first moves are completed. The first major yellow counter-move is done; it will be connected...
The Dollar Index (DX1!) has been in an uptrend since the spring-summer of 2008, when it reached its lowest point. Since October 2009 (after the first leg down of the uptrend), whenever the net positions of retailers in the CoT report turn negative (or approach zero) AND retailers reach an extreme low in the CoT index (either in the short-term OR long-term), a...
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a 19-month Channel Up pattern and this week (as well as on August 05), it almost reached its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). This is a Double Bottom formation so far, which is a bullish pattern, that was also formed on the 1D RSI. The last time the RSI completed this formation, we've had a bottom that gave way...
US CPI data may not have been as soft as some would have liked, but it retains the view that the Fed will cut rates and achieve a soft landing. The US dollar index reversed earlier CPI-induced losses to close the day flat on Wednesday and form a small bullish pinbar. Its low almost perfectly respected trend support from the July 2023 low, and shows that demand...
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the May 01 High, which is a technical Bearish Leg inside the long-term Channel Up structure. The price is already very close to the bottom of the Channel Down and with the previous Bearish Leg completing a -2.36% decline, we believe this is the right time to buy again on the...
Pair : DXY Index Description : Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " A " Corrective Waves Break of Structure Demand Zone Fibonacci Level - 50.00% / 61.80% Bearish Channel in Long Time Frame
Pair : DXY INDEX Description : Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " ABC " Corrective Waves Break of Structure RSI - Divergence Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame Demand Zone
TIME TO SELL NASDAQ Price finally reached weekly bearish selling zone (Akka in Spanish "area de ventas"). I expect a strong sell towards SMA 30 @ W1 changing weekly tendency from strong bullish into strong bearish. TP areas will be triangle cuspid and 50-61.8%
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit both Targets that we set on our January 24 analysis (see chart below): Yet again, a new buy opportunity is emerging as the price not only hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support Zone but also the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up, which is essentially the Bullish Leg of the 1-year Channel...
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit the first out of our two bullish targets (January 24, see chart below), and despite a minor divergence, remains well within our pattern: That is the 2nd Bullish Leg of the long-term Channel Up pattern. We are past a 1D Golden Cross with the short-term pull-back finding support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The last 1D...
The U.S. Dollar Index is coming off a three day rebound after the 1D RSI almost touched the oversold (30.000) level. Even though the 1D technical outlook is bearish (RSI = 35.930, MACD = -0.200, ADX = 51.582) this small reaction is most likely the start of a counter trend rebound like late June 2023, which reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Consequently we are...
Last time we looked into the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we gave a bullish signal on two targets (January 24, see chart below), one of whom is already hit: The long-term pattern is a 1-year Channel Up and currently the market is on the Bullish Leg to price the 3rd Higher Highs of the pattern. Target 2 (105.900) is on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the...
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) gave us the most optimal buy entry last time we analyzed it (December 28 2023, see chart below), exactly at the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up: Our perspective hasn't changed, this is the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up but this consolidation is simply a standard technical re-accumulation within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and...
The U.S. Dollar Index has closed the week on a flat 1W candle, the first such since October 2nd 2023 on a marginally bearish 1W technical outlook (RSI = 43.488, MACD = -0.450, ADX = 30.953). The 1W RSI has rebounded on the S1 Zone forming a HL trendline and this gives shape to a Channel Up. This RSI formation is much like the bottom's of 2021 and 2018 as you can...
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has started trading within a Channel Up pattern of Higher Highs initially since the beginning of the year (2023). The price is at the moment almost on its bottom, which will be the 2nd Higher Low since July 14. Since the October 03 top after which has entered the corrective (bearish) leg, the index is within a very tight (hence...