DX to resume uptrend next weekAlthough I am a long term dollar bear, I think next week we see some upside. Maybe even new highs later this year. Daily divergence at a major support is what interests me in a long
Dollar Index Futures DX1!
After The Trump USD Rally, What's Next?Afternoon guys..
2016 was a roller coast for markets. A year ago investors were in panic about deflation, indeed as the year progressed a good case inflation scenario unfolded. The market reaction following the US elections was even faster that expected.
In real terms the USD is ~8% above its 20y average but still 8% below its high in 2002. Hedge funds are long the USD, real money remains short which is a relatively similar positioning in the last 12 months. Rate momentum has been especially negative for EUR. Meanwhile USD remains an asset with strong equities and the steepest rates trend, capturing the most hawkish monetary policy in G10.
I remain bullish on the USD for the years ahead, there are short term risks such as the BoJ's credibility in easing monetary policy vs. the ECB. Alongside the contributions fiscal policy will play this year as a potential leader over monetary policy.
Ready For A Dollar SellOFF.....My Technicals are suggesting a selloff in USD INDEX is Imminent and sell off would be at least 10% initially, My sell levels between 101.2 - 102.7.
DX1!: Dollar index at an inflection pointThe dollar index futures have been tracing a strong monthly uptrend and currently grinded to a halt, with considerably strong declines in most dollar pairs.
Right now, it's range bound, stuck between 10 month levels that will soon become 11 months after March's close.
For price to move, it needs to clear this zone, either up or down.
Once below, it can accelerate more freely towards either the low volume support area below or a resumption of the monthly rally.
Fundamentally speaking, the rising dollar has been hurting earnings and the normalization of interest rates didn't help, creating a cascade in equity prices. Clearly, central banks world wide, are interested in keeping rates low or even negative for the most part, further inflating their asset bubbles, and keeping the fiat ecosystem healthy.
The forecast is for sideways price action in the dollar index for an extended period of time.
This makes the gold and silver (and Bitcoin!) long prospects very attractive, since this can lead to a lose of faith in fiat money as the bubbles become unsustainable, even with the most sringent of monetary policies.
To resume the long term uptrend, we would have to break the resistance above 98, but it would be interesting to go long against the 92.6-89.59 zone as well. I wouldn't bother with trend trading in this scale, and would rather trade swings in the daily.
Ivan Labrie.
Gold Sell Opportunity... 1. Looking For A Sell in Gold.
2. Near Structure @ 1089.
3. Targets @ 1050, then breakout of channel for 1000, for potential buy.
4. RSI Rejecting Rally in Daily Chart till now.
5. Dollar Might Take More Strength.
6. Keeping Stops Above 1105.
7. Also have eye on GDP Data.
Down Channel breakout setup in US Dollar IndexBelieve fast track trade approval this week and/or #FOMC minutes could catalyze dollar higher. Near a down channel breakout here. Decent support at green line. May be range bound short term though within 93.10-95.48 range. Long term believe EUR/USD will reach parity by end of year and dollar may surpass Euro given ECB QE measures. Watch for channel break for long entry. Or < 93 for short play to 200EMA.
DX US Dollar marching towards $99After clearing the HVN High Volume Node of $95 representing supply from 1997 - 1999, the $DXY $DX_F is on track to get to the next HVN of $99 and then the nice round number of $100 where I suspect it will pull back. I am bullish to $100 then bearish. Watch commodities.
DX US Dollar index $DXYUS Dollar showing signs of distribution as evidenced by accumulation in E6 Euro, J6 Yen and A6 Australian Dollar. #1 Short term excess supply signal has been flashing on/off today signalling a high probability of more selling. Note: no new cyclical support or resistance levels have calculated and printed at this time. This distribution will most likely take a week or two. $CL WTI Crude futures show accumulation also. These are my opinions based on current evidence.
$EURUSD $E6_F Euro currencyAccumulation. Near term swing low is within sight. $DX_F DXY US Dollar is encountering supply from $88 - 92 at the same time. $J6_F $USDJPY Japanese Yen is near support. All the major currencies are displaying a near term change in trend. More confirmation needed. Seeing early signs.
