DXY INDEXPair : DXY INDEX
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " ABC " Corrective Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Demand Zone
Dollar Index Futures DX1!
TIME TO SELL NASDAQ TIME TO SELL NASDAQ
Price finally reached weekly bearish selling zone (Akka in Spanish "area de ventas").
I expect a strong sell towards SMA 30 @ W1 changing weekly tendency from strong bullish into strong bearish.
TP areas will be triangle cuspid and 50-61.8%
DXY Channel Up bottom. Strong buy opportunity.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit both Targets that we set on our January 24 analysis (see chart below):
Yet again, a new buy opportunity is emerging as the price not only hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support Zone but also the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up, which is essentially the Bullish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up.
With the 1D MACD about to form a Bullish Cross, that will be the bullish confirmation we need to buy and target 108.000 (near the top of the dotted Channel Up and almost +4% from yesterday's Low, which is a standard rise % within the pattern).
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DXY Uptrend entering its final phase.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit the first out of our two bullish targets (January 24, see chart below), and despite a minor divergence, remains well within our pattern:
That is the 2nd Bullish Leg of the long-term Channel Up pattern. We are past a 1D Golden Cross with the short-term pull-back finding support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The last 1D Golden Cross was on September 20 2023 and it gave one last rally before forming a Higher High just below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension and completing a +7.85% rise from the Low.
Symmetry plays a key role on this pattern, so we will pursue our final 108.500 Target whih is exactly at +7.85% from the Higher Low and marginally below the 1.236 Fib. An additional indicator that can tell us when to sell could be the 1D MACD. If it hits the Resistance Zone and then forms a Bearish with the price in decline, then consider it an early sell signal.
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DXY is turning bullish short term.The U.S. Dollar Index is coming off a three day rebound after the 1D RSI almost touched the oversold (30.000) level. Even though the 1D technical outlook is bearish (RSI = 35.930, MACD = -0.200, ADX = 51.582) this small reaction is most likely the start of a counter trend rebound like late June 2023, which reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Consequently we are taking a short term long, targeting a little over the 0.5 Fib (TP = 103.800). For the past 14 months, DXY has been basically consolidating.
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DXY Should resume the long-term bullish trend.Last time we looked into the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we gave a bullish signal on two targets (January 24, see chart below), one of whom is already hit:
The long-term pattern is a 1-year Channel Up and currently the market is on the Bullish Leg to price the 3rd Higher Highs of the pattern. Target 2 (105.900) is on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous Higher High.
This time we set an even higher target for the Channel Up peak, which last time came after a +7.85% from the bottom. Based on that we expect 108.500 by June.
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DXY The uptrend is only halfway there. Still time to buy.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) gave us the most optimal buy entry last time we analyzed it (December 28 2023, see chart below), exactly at the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up:
Our perspective hasn't changed, this is the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up but this consolidation is simply a standard technical re-accumulation within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is exactly what took place during the previous Bullish Leg around the 1D MA50 (August 03 - 10). Even the 1D RSI indicates that we are on a symmetric Bullish Leg.
Our first Target remains the same (104.500), which is exactly on the 0.5 Channel Fibonacci and marginally below the horizontal 0.618 Fibonacci level. If after that the price pulls-back and re-tests the 1D MA200 and holds as in late August 2023 (i.e. close the 1D candle above it), we will buy again and target the 0.786 horizontal Fibonacci level at 15.900.
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DXY: Long term rebound expected.The U.S. Dollar Index has closed the week on a flat 1W candle, the first such since October 2nd 2023 on a marginally bearish 1W technical outlook (RSI = 43.488, MACD = -0.450, ADX = 30.953). The 1W RSI has rebounded on the S1 Zone forming a HL trendline and this gives shape to a Channel Up. This RSI formation is much like the bottom's of 2021 and 2018 as you can see on the chart.
As long as the dotted HL trendline holds, we are long, aiming at the dotter LH trendline (TP = 105.500). If the HL breaks, we will short aiming at the LL trendline (TP = 98.000).
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DXY at the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has started trading within a Channel Up pattern of Higher Highs initially since the beginning of the year (2023). The price is at the moment almost on its bottom, which will be the 2nd Higher Low since July 14. Since the October 03 top after which has entered the corrective (bearish) leg, the index is within a very tight (hence aggressive) Channel Down that hasn't seen a retrace yet.
As a result, the probability of a rebound becomes stronger on each candle, especially now that the Channel Up has bottomed. The price measurements are so far quite symmetrical as you can see. The previous Bearish Legs have been on -4.83% and -4.94% declines respectively, and so far the first phase of the current one has been -4.59%. Right now the 2nd phase is at 5.00%, which is within the tolerance levels.
If it prices a bottom now, we will buy and target 104.500, which will be on the 0.5 Channel Fibonacci level and marginally below the 0.618 horizontal Fibonacci level (which is where the first consolidation took place on the previous Bullish Leg on August 16). If however the Channel Up breaks downwards, we will wait for a 2nd and final buy entry at 99.125, which will reresent a -4.96% decline from the recent Lower High. That buy will target 13.900.
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Us Dollar Weakness - Will Price Drop To $100 Again?The US dollar experienced a notable 1.3% drop at the end of last week, following a 0.49% gap down on Thursday. In contrast, the S&P 500 gained 0.3% on Thursday and 2.49% over the week.
Since September 2022, the dollar has been volatile, falling 13% from a high of $114, briefly dipping below $100, then recovering 7%, and falling again by 4.8%. This erratic behavior makes it hard to predict the dollar's future movements.
The dollar's latest decline suggests it might retest the $100 level, a crucial support zone. If the dollar starts to rise, surpassing the October high of $107 will be critical, as it could signal a shift from the current downward trend to a potential upward trend.
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DXY Don't let the Fed mislead you. Long-term it's still bullish.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is taking punishment since the October high and this week in particular after the Fed Rate Decision. In times of price distortion by fundamentals, we always think it is useful to look into the longer term time-frames (1W and over) for technical patterns that withstand fundamental irregularities and filter out the news noise.
In that sense, we present to you today the long-term (1W) outlook on DXY, which is trading within a Channel Up since the March 02 2009 High, which was effectively the bottom of the last major Bear Cycle, the U.S. Housing Crisis. Needless to say, such events are shape shifters for the markets and initiate dominant trends and patterns that are very difficult to break (at least without similar catalysts).
This 14-year Channel Up is such a dominant pattern with 4 confirmed Higher Highs. The Sine Waves very accurately capture all of those Highs on their tops. After every such High, the DXY declines aggressively towards the Channel's bottom and after it forms it, it starts rising on Higher Lows, effectively forming a Channel Up (dotted lines). The current Channel Up is approaching its bottom and is technically the most optimal long-term buy opportunity.
The previous two have hit at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level before declining again. That is now at 108.500 and this is our long-term target.
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DXY/USD ~ Bullish Reversal / Inverse H&S (1H)TVC:DXY chart mapping/analysis.
Bullish inverse H&S identified on lower timeframe charts, pending breakout confirmation.
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Inverse H&S breakout = extrapolated move into 23.6% Fib / ~106 horizontal line (yellow dashed) / upper range of descending parallel channel (light blue) confluence zone.
Breakout failure = re-test 50% Fib aka "Right Shoulder".
Further bearish capitulation = re-test lower range of ascending parallel channel (white) / Golden Pocket confluence zone.
Major macro economic news this week = higher probability of implied volatile swings in either direction.
DXY/USD~ Nov-Dec Snapshot (4H Intraday)TVC:DXY chart mapping/analysis for last week of November.
TBC further details/write-up via ideas section.
DXY The bottom is near. Excellent opportunity.The U.S. Dollar Index has been declining since the October 3rd High and is now under the MA200 (1d).
The RSI (1d) is nearly oversold and is double bottoming on the 30.00 level, while the price is approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the July 14th bottom.
That will be a -4.50% decline, comparable to all three major decline of 2023: -4.55%, -4.85% and -4.88%.
Trading Plan:
1. Start buying on the current market price with a maximum extension up to -4.88%.
Targets:
1. 105.500 (the 0.618 Fibonacci level), can even extend as high as 106.200 (near the 0.786 Fibonacci level like the High of May 31st).
Tips:
1. The CCI (1d) is posting a Bullish Divergence on a Rising Support, like those of March-April and late January. This indicates that a final tick downwards is possible before calling it a bottom. But a strong indication to start buying already an oversold price level.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
US Dollar Faces Supports: Potential Double Bottom Signals MarketUS Dollar Faces Supports: Potential Double Bottom Signals Market Dynamics
Major currency pairs continue their range-bound movement on Monday as investors refrain from making significant directional bets. The market sentiment is cautious due to escalating concerns, with investors eyeing key inflation data releases from both the United States (US) and the Eurozone later in the week.
Early Monday, Asian markets saw declines, influenced by the People’s Bank of China's (PBOC) lack of detailed information on stimulus measures for private firms and rising respiratory illnesses in China. The ongoing decrease in China’s Industrial Profits, coupled with uncertainty surrounding major central banks' interest rate outlooks, further contributed to the subdued market mood.
The return of US traders after the Thanksgiving holiday break is awaited, and the US S&P 500 futures, considered a risk barometer, indicate a 0.30% decline on the day.
Despite the cautious market sentiment, the US Dollar experiences selling pressure as it hovers around the 103.200 zone. Notably, there's potential for a Double Bottom formation, suggesting a strong recovery for the USD. The existence of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $105.000 becomes noteworthy, serving as a potential target point in the event of a market reversal.
Our Preference
Above 102.600 look for further upside with 104.2150 & 105.000 as targets.
DXY/USD ~ November TA Outlook (4H Intraday)TVC:DXY chart mapping/analysis.
US Dollar getting thrown out with US Treasuries as punters pile into "risk-on" trade.
Downward momentum to continue until change in trend on lower timeframe &/or Markets flip back into "risk-off" sentiment.
Go Down, Moses.. To Let My Shekel Go... 😕Shekel drops to 4 against the dollar, in first since 2015.
Currency’s weakness comes as conflict rages, even after Bank of Israel announced plan to intervene in the foreign exchange market to try and contain sharp shekel FOREXCOM:USDILS moves.
The exchange rate of the New Israeli Shekel on Monday crossed the threshold of NIS 4 per dollar, the local currency’s weakest level since 2015, with Israel in its 10th day of conflict with the Hamas terror group.
Since the devastating massacre launched by Hamas on October 7 in Israel’s southern communities, in which more than 1,300 were killed, more than 4,000 injured, and some 200 kidnapped by terrorists, the shekel has dropped by about four percent against the US dollar.
Investor uncertainty over the duration and scope of the conflict has been growing in recent days, with the Israel Defense Forces gearing up for a ground operation to smash the terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip.
The currency’s weakness comes even as the Bank of Israel last week announced a plan to intervene in the foreign exchange market to try and moderate shekel volatility after the country formally declared a state of war. As part of the program, the central bank can sell up to $30 billion in foreign exchange to protect the shekel from collapse.
It was also introduced to “provide necessary liquidity for the continued proper functioning of the markets,” the Bank of Israel said.
Israel’s consumer price index (CPI), a measure of inflation that tracks the average cost of household goods, unexpectedly decelerated 0.1% in September, before Hamas’s unprecedented attack, figures by the statistics bureau.
Following the lower-than-expected September print, economists and market participants have started to price in an interest rate cut by the Bank of Israel as early as at its next monetary policy meeting on October 23, or even earlier, should it be necessary.
The September CPI index points to the fact that the economy was slowing even before the conflict broke out.
Meanwhile technical graph for FOREXCOM:USDILS says, U.S. dollar is about to break out major multi year resistance against shekel, where 4 shekels is a key to watch at the end of Q4'23.
DXY: Channel Down on the 1D timeframe.The U.S. Dollar Index is reversing at the top of October's Channel Down on a technical outlook that is about to turn neutral (RSI = 56.064, MACD = 0.260, ADX = 25.484). As long as the price stays inside the Channel Down, we are bearish, aiming at the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 105.225). If the price crosses over the top of the Channel Down, while the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, we will buy, aiming at the R1 level (TP = 108.000).
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EURO VS U.S. DOLLAR. TO LOW, OR NOT TO LOW. THIS IS THE QUESTIONThis publication is for Euro against U.S. dollar, and quick and simple as well as all other publications by @Pandorra
2023 is about the end, so let's take a look on technical perspectives for FX:EURUSD .
The main graph is EURUSD semi-annual 6-month chart (yes, they also exist on TradingView, as well as quarterly 3-month charts and annual 12-month charts).
EURUSD is being concentrated on multi year floor, with lowest levels at semi-annual close around 1.05 (actual again in this time).
Well, recently being inspired with finding NASDAQ:TLT multi year floor, I guess that breaking down the 1.05 floor in EURUSD can turn the price much and much lower.
Maybe to 1.6 Euro for 1 U.S. Dollar somewhere in mid or late 2020s, or early 2030s.
Patience.. Patience.. and once again Patience..
The Time will show.
Dollar looks into the skyThere is much noise about dollar losing its king status in the world.
The drop in the yellow wave b within a correction could have spurred that speculation.
You can see that it was a natural move to retest broken former barrier.
It was successfully rejected as the price bounced up quickly.
The target for the next move could be around $125
where yellow wave c will be equal to yellow wave a.
The next possible target is around $141
where yellow wave c will be equal to 1.618 of yellow wave a.
Where do you think DXY would go next?
-$125
-$141
-down
DXY/USD ~ Flat Bottom Pattern + Inverse H&S (15min)TVC:DXY developing flat bottom pattern after rejecting upper parallel channel + potential inverse H&S pattern, TBC.
Inverse H&S Playbook (Long):
- Break above 200MA/38.2% Fib/descending trend-line confluence
- Reject 50% Fib/overhead supply (white box) confluence then bounce off 38.2% Fib to create the "Right Shoulder"
- Re-test & break (hold) above overhead supply confluence to activate inverse H&S pattern
- TP 1st target = ~107.70-108 21st Nov 2022 wick top/supply (red box)
Inverse H&S breakout also coincides w/ break above ascending parallel channel.
Flat Bottom Bear Break Playbook (Short):
- Break below horizontal "Flat Bottom" line to re-test middle trend-line (dark blue/dashed)
- Failed re-test of Flat Bottom &/or middle trend-line validates Bearish price action
- Moving averages (esp. 200MA) act as dynamic resistance, pushing price action towards lower parallel channel
- TP 1st target = ~106-105.70 (green box)
DXY King Dollar has still fuel on this rally.The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is on a strong 3 month rally that has taken the market by surprise. However if we look on the (much) larger time-frames such as today's 1M (monthly), we see that this move wasn't so unexpected.
First of all, the price rebounded just before it hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). On a large scale, DXY is simply extending the Channel Up pattern that emerged after the market broken above the Lower Highs of 1985 on the January 2015 candle. Fed wanted to believe it but this break-out extended the Channel Up that has already started on the 2008 bottom, the peak of the Housing Crisis. The central bank policies certainly achieved at keeping the greenback the most desired currency in the world.
Now back to the analysis, we can see that the 1M RSI symmetry suggests that the price might be on the final bullish wave before a new correction to or even below the 1M MA50. Still though, the current bullish wave has much room to grow before it exhausts.
Do you think it will keep rising and maybe reverse by Q2 2024?
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DXY/USD ~ 4H Intraday Swing (Oct 2023)TVC:DXY chart mapping/analysis for intraday & short-term swing trade strategies.
