DXY First 1W MA50 test since March. Bullish or bearish?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has come the closest it's been to the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) in 6 months (since March 09 2023). So far the price action has shown a bearish reversal sentiment as the Higher Lows trend-line of the rally since the July 14 bottom, broke last week, but the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supported. This bearish sentiment will be confirmed however if the price gets rejected on the 1W MA50, i.e. test it and close the 1W candle below it.
In that case we will open a sell on the spot and target the 1D MA200 again and Support 1 at 103.000. If after that the price closes a 1D candle below, we will sell again towards Support 2 (102.000).
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Dollar Index Futures DX1!
DXY: Crossed under the 6 month Support. Sell signal.The US Dollar Index crossed today under the S1 (100.800) for the first time since February 2nd and this sets in motion the second part of this new bearish leg of the Channel Down pattern. The 1D timeframe turned oversold (RSI = 28.999, MACD = -0.360, ADX = 23.314) and with the 1D RSI imitating the November 11th 2022 Low (as well as the MACD), it is likely to get a short term rebound until the oversold state normalizes.
We will use this potential bounce as a sell entry and target the bottom of the Channel Down (TP = 97.770), which potentially completes also a -6.66% decline from the top.
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USD is now bullishThe USD has given a couple of bullish signals and these are:
1. A higher high and breakout close of the highest close in the last 10 candles;
2. the MACD is turning up, crossed up the signal line too;
3. the VolDiv is beginning to turn upward and significantly turned up (white dot trigger);
4. The higher high and higher low pattern to bottom out of a downtrend had just happened, although a bit later than projected (points 1 to 5). Look forward to a higher high surpassing 106.62 and its a clear bull primary trend.
105.62 is the upside target. Then possibly 101 the downside target.
Heads up!
ps. There is something about the spike in the USD... a combination of Powell talk and the Feds raising interest rates, with a equity market panic attack. Note the imminent latter.
This also affects a lot of other plays, Gold and Crude oil, for example. Crypto may be affected but Bond rates and prices definitely!
DXY: Aiming at a new Low. Long term bearish trend intact.DXY is having the strongest bearish 1D candle since the May 31st rejection at the top of the long term Channel Down. The 1D time frame is deep in red technicals (RSI = 36.647, MACD = 0.090, ADX = 40.756) but the fact that the price crossed under the 1D MA50 gain, calls for more selling.
Based on the previous bearish leg, we aim at a medium term correction of -4.85%, thus our target is structured TP = 99.700. Long term target is at a -6.66% (TP = 97.770) but only after a rebound, but until then our strategy will be updated with a new idea.
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DXY formed a MACD Bearish Cross and eyes April's lowThe US Dollar Index / DXY is pulling back after the rejection on the Falling Resistance.
The completion of a 1day MACD Bearish Cross yesterday is enhancing the rejection with a stronger sell signal as on March 10th.
Sell and target Support A at 101.000.
If however a 1day candle closes over the Falling Resistance, buy on the short term and target the 1day MA200 at 105.000. New sells can be added there.
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DXY Triple bearish rejection. 102.000 by month's end.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) had a major Bearish Rejection last week, and the 1W chart perfectly portrays the triple sell signal that just emerged. As you see the price hit and pulled-back off 1) The Lower Highs trend-line of the Descending Triangle pattern, 2) the 0.618 Fibonacci level and 3) the 1W RSI got rejected on its Higher Highs trend-line.
This Triple Rejection is a major medium-term sell signal at least, with the first technical target being the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which supported the downtrend last time (May 08 candle). The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the Resistance since the week of December 19 2022. If we get a weekly close below the 100.825 Support, we will re-sell and target the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at 98.550 on the long-term.
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DXY Time to start selling it. Long-term top is near.We had a good break-out buy signal on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on our last trade ten days ago (see chart below) and despite not having hit our original target, we decide to close the long position:
The reason is that it has reached the Lower Highs 1 trend-line, the first out of two Resistance levels. Our target was the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is expected to make contact with, so that will be our second (and final) sell entry. Pay attention to the 1D RSI also, which turned flat just before getting nearly overbought, same as it did on February 24. Our bearish strategy targets the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term, with a projected contact at 102.650.
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Dxy 🌊Salutations,
The US Dollar exhibits a prototypical double-zig-zag configuration,
reminiscent of what can be described as "Phase E" in the canonical Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.
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During Phase E, an asset breaks free from its trading range,
demand exerts unambiguous control and the appreciative trend becomes palpable to the discerning eye.
Potential setbacks such as shakeouts and customary corrections typically recede quickly.
Higher echelon trading ranges that encompass both profit realization and the procurement of additional holdings(“re-accumulation”) by influential stakeholders may manifest at any juncture during Phase E.
These intermediate trading arenas are sometimes metaphorically referred to as the “stepping stones,”
paving the way to even loftier price objectives.
My conjecture posits that the recently completed local Wave B in April symbolizes one such "stepping stone".
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Wave Y - 131 - 143
☿
DXY Will keep rising until it tests the 1D MA200.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has found itself rebounding, many months after the huge sell signal we gave last September (chart below):
The price rebound on the 100.790 Support that was first formed on the February 02 Low and is now above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI symmetry with the February rise, hints that the price may rise as high as the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That is above the Lower Highs trend-line and below the 105.885 Resistance but is projected to make or almost make direct contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is an excellent medium-term target, we are aiming at 105.000 to lower the risk. Note that the 1D MA200 has been intact since December 07 2022, so a rejection near it will be a strong sell opportunity.
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US DOLLAR INDEX plus CORRELATIONSDXY — RESISTANCE (4H)
✍️ Several things have led to the current success of the DXY:
(1) The Bold Way the Federal Reserve Handles Money
Interest rates were raised four times by the Fed in 2022, and this is expected to happen again in 2023. Because of this, buyers are more interested in the US dollar because it has higher interest rates than other currencies.
(2) The Conflict in Ukraine
Investors have moved away from risky investments like stocks and commodities and toward the US dollar, which is seen as a "safe haven" currency.
(3) The Sentiment of the Economy
People think that the US economy will grow more slowly in 2023 than it did in 2022. This could make fewer people want to buy US goods and services, which could cause the US dollar to fall.
(4) A Global Recession
The global economy is being pushed around by things like rising prices, problems in the supply chain, and the ongoing situation in Ukraine. These problems could lead to an economic slowdown, which would hurt the value of the US dollar.
🤔 That being said, it's possible that Price Action will respect Resistance @ 1.0255 (4H), which would make the following pairs go up in our favor:
AUDUSD 📈 EURUSD 📈 NZDUSD 📈 GBPUSD 📈
USD to drop a bit more, and create ripplesThe week ended a little confused, post NFP and other announcements.
The only slight clarity here is that over the next week (or few weeks), we should see the USD dropping a bit more, breaking down both support lines, for a few days. IF "lucky", the USD futures should reach target at 99, even for a day or two.
Now, this comes with a bit of a stretch with volatility in the other parts of the market too, affecting commodities, indexes, forex etc.
Later analysis posts, is based on the background scenario in an increased likelihood of a USD decline.
USD looks to break last low and support... The USD Futures Daily chart is already pointing that way... Once it breaks the yellow support line, it will look for 99.
MACD slowing its ascent, while VolDiv is crossing down itself and below zero line.
TD Setup is bearish for the USD.
Bearish outlook overall.
USD to slide more...watch the rest of the week.
The USD is likely to slide down further based on the MACD; but VolDiv suggests that it is not likely to be a drastic off the cliff type.
A revisit to the last low is very probable (small yellow ellipse) as it broke down the TDST (red dotted line) and should continue to remain below. If it closes the week below the TDST, USD is in a firm bearish trend and next downside target is at 99.
us dolla?good eve'
last post for awhile ---
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-pretty channel,
-rejected 221 dma
-bear flagging,
-less people are interested in this currency these days.
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us dollar looks to me like it's ready to capitulate.
my estimated downside target is 92.
> do what you will with this information.
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read further:
4-28-23 [dxy]good day,
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yesterday i shared a very conservative case on the us dollar,
but after seeing the unfolding structure,
i have come back to revise the case.
i am predicting that the dxy expands upward in a fairly aggressive impulse upwards into may via an expanded flat.
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will update as it goes,
but for now it's looking like we're heading up to roughly 105-106.
stay safe!
DXY: 1D MA50 closing decides the trend.DXY has found Support on S1 (100.800) and turned rather sideways on 1D as also shown by its technicals (RSI = 46.877, MACD = -0.410, ADX = 14.027). The RSI carries strong similarities with the November-January decline so as long as the price trades under the 1D MA50, we will be bearish aiming at the Channel Down bottom (TP = 99.000). If it closes a candle over the 1D MA50, we will turn bullish short term aiming at the Channel's top (TP = 104.000) and then sell.
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4-27-23 [dxy]hello,
just wanted to share an extra layer of confluence,
supporting my latest spx post.
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the us dollar, has been very corrective on this entire move down -
i will not share my full count (yet).
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>i am theorizing that it breaks down in the month(s) ahead leading into the summer time.
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prior to the breakdown,
i'd like to see it backtest the last point of supply.
if a rejection is apparent,
that is what i believe will cause an aggressive up-thrust in the stock market.