Dollar Index Futures DX1!
DXY Channel Up close to peaking.The U.S. Dollar Index is trading inside a Channel Up pattern for more than 2 months.
The price is approaching an inner Rising Resistance, similar to late August, a quick breah of which caused the Higher High peak on Fibonacci 1.618.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the Rising Resistance.
Targets:
1. 105.350 (bottom of Channel Up, Fib 1.0, -1.44% from a potential top).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is already overbought. An additional sell indication.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DXY: Moment of truth on the 105.900 ResistanceThe U.S. Dollar Index is rising on an almost overbought 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 69.699, MACD = 0.650, ADX = 30.040) supported by a HL trendline. Following the 1D Golden Cross (first since July 26th 2021), it is now facing the most important Resistance for the long term, R1 at 105.900.
We will go long if a 1D candle closes over it and target the R2 level (TP = 108.000) and sell if rejected and target the 0.382 Fibonacci level (TP = 103.500). It has to be said that the 1D RSI has turned sideways since August 25th. This is a potential sign that the bullish trend is losing strength.
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$6E1! futures gap up, bullish for EURUSDVery brief follow up with the EURUSD short term bull case I was building last week, and finally put on a trade on Friday before close, both the Euro FX futures CME:6E1! gapped up, and the MOEX:DX1! futures gapped down. If this follows through, that bodes well for my AMEX:FXE calls.
I will add, the options market in AMEX:FXE are not very liquid. You will find yourself buying on the ask and likely selling on the bid. I tried to get an inbetween the market fill and it just wasn't happening. But, if the move is big enough through the next couple weeks, hopefully the profit still turns out fairly tidy.
Futures open on a Sunday are not exactly something you can count on for the general direction, sometimes not even for the next day, but hey, it looks good for my trade at the moment, I'll take it. We'll see what tomorrow holds and hopefully the next ~2 or so weeks.
DX - US$ Index on the way to the Center-line.In previous posts I already showed how DX is moving towards the CL.
It failed two time, then they cleaned out the Stop/Losses and now DX is on it's way to the Center-line.
Now that we have good confirmation, it would be a no brainer to load the boat even more on a pullback at the CIB line. (yellow).
DX1! - Dollar Index at equilibriumSo, here we have the USD Index at the Centerline at a balanced level.
What if the US$ starts go north?
I would say, markets, which are btw. also totally overbought, are tanking.
This scenario is on point with the CPI today.
Obvious or a fluke?
As always, anything can happen, even a new spike in the Indexes.
DX1! | DXY | US DOLLAR INDEX FUTURESSLO2 @ 105.15 ⏳
SLO1 @ 104.50 ⏳
TP1 @ 103.40
TP2 @ 102.40
TP3 @ 101.70
TP4 @ 100.55
📈 The 2D TF is showing the probability of an UTBO @ 103.85 🙏
✍️ If UTBO happens, I'm anticipating the following:
AUDUSD...DT 📉
EURUSD...DT 📉
GBPUSD...DT 📉
NZDUSD...DT 📉
USDCAD...UT 📈
USDJPY...UT 📈
🔑
DT = DOWNTREND
TF = TIME FRAME
UT = UPTREND
UTBO = UPTREND BREAKOUT
✨ Curve Analysis Analyzed Using P2P INDi
— A Supply/Demand Indicators: This indicator helps you identify key levels of support and resistance.
✨ Uptrend Breakout Analyzed Using TEMASHA
— This indicator helps you identify profitable scalping opportunities.
DXY First 1W MA50 test since March. Bullish or bearish?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has come the closest it's been to the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) in 6 months (since March 09 2023). So far the price action has shown a bearish reversal sentiment as the Higher Lows trend-line of the rally since the July 14 bottom, broke last week, but the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supported. This bearish sentiment will be confirmed however if the price gets rejected on the 1W MA50, i.e. test it and close the 1W candle below it.
In that case we will open a sell on the spot and target the 1D MA200 again and Support 1 at 103.000. If after that the price closes a 1D candle below, we will sell again towards Support 2 (102.000).
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dxy ready to gothe whole view is mentioned on the chart
do not want to spam too much..
remember to always enjoy your profits ;)
DXY: Crossed under the 6 month Support. Sell signal.The US Dollar Index crossed today under the S1 (100.800) for the first time since February 2nd and this sets in motion the second part of this new bearish leg of the Channel Down pattern. The 1D timeframe turned oversold (RSI = 28.999, MACD = -0.360, ADX = 23.314) and with the 1D RSI imitating the November 11th 2022 Low (as well as the MACD), it is likely to get a short term rebound until the oversold state normalizes.
We will use this potential bounce as a sell entry and target the bottom of the Channel Down (TP = 97.770), which potentially completes also a -6.66% decline from the top.
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USD is now bullishThe USD has given a couple of bullish signals and these are:
1. A higher high and breakout close of the highest close in the last 10 candles;
2. the MACD is turning up, crossed up the signal line too;
3. the VolDiv is beginning to turn upward and significantly turned up (white dot trigger);
4. The higher high and higher low pattern to bottom out of a downtrend had just happened, although a bit later than projected (points 1 to 5). Look forward to a higher high surpassing 106.62 and its a clear bull primary trend.
105.62 is the upside target. Then possibly 101 the downside target.
Heads up!
ps. There is something about the spike in the USD... a combination of Powell talk and the Feds raising interest rates, with a equity market panic attack. Note the imminent latter.
This also affects a lot of other plays, Gold and Crude oil, for example. Crypto may be affected but Bond rates and prices definitely!
DXY: Aiming at a new Low. Long term bearish trend intact.DXY is having the strongest bearish 1D candle since the May 31st rejection at the top of the long term Channel Down. The 1D time frame is deep in red technicals (RSI = 36.647, MACD = 0.090, ADX = 40.756) but the fact that the price crossed under the 1D MA50 gain, calls for more selling.
Based on the previous bearish leg, we aim at a medium term correction of -4.85%, thus our target is structured TP = 99.700. Long term target is at a -6.66% (TP = 97.770) but only after a rebound, but until then our strategy will be updated with a new idea.
Prior idea:
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DXY formed a MACD Bearish Cross and eyes April's lowThe US Dollar Index / DXY is pulling back after the rejection on the Falling Resistance.
The completion of a 1day MACD Bearish Cross yesterday is enhancing the rejection with a stronger sell signal as on March 10th.
Sell and target Support A at 101.000.
If however a 1day candle closes over the Falling Resistance, buy on the short term and target the 1day MA200 at 105.000. New sells can be added there.
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DXY Triple bearish rejection. 102.000 by month's end.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) had a major Bearish Rejection last week, and the 1W chart perfectly portrays the triple sell signal that just emerged. As you see the price hit and pulled-back off 1) The Lower Highs trend-line of the Descending Triangle pattern, 2) the 0.618 Fibonacci level and 3) the 1W RSI got rejected on its Higher Highs trend-line.
This Triple Rejection is a major medium-term sell signal at least, with the first technical target being the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which supported the downtrend last time (May 08 candle). The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the Resistance since the week of December 19 2022. If we get a weekly close below the 100.825 Support, we will re-sell and target the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at 98.550 on the long-term.
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USD bullish to consolidation range resistanceJust a quick note that as Biden signed the raise of the US debt ceiling, the USD is going to be bullish for a bit, and then meet the upper range resistance, and then lose it to get back to range support.
Projection Targets marked.
DX1 DOLLAR💥1H-TIMEFRAME ANALYSISDX1 DOLLAR💥1H-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
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💥 DX1 DOLLAR 1D-TIMEFRAME ANALYSISDX1 DOLLAR💥1D-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
💗Hello ladies and gentlemen
This is my new idea for 💥Dollar Index
I hope my idea is clear
Support me by like and share thank you
Stay Safe💯💲💲💲
Good luck💰😍
DXY Time to start selling it. Long-term top is near.We had a good break-out buy signal on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on our last trade ten days ago (see chart below) and despite not having hit our original target, we decide to close the long position:
The reason is that it has reached the Lower Highs 1 trend-line, the first out of two Resistance levels. Our target was the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is expected to make contact with, so that will be our second (and final) sell entry. Pay attention to the 1D RSI also, which turned flat just before getting nearly overbought, same as it did on February 24. Our bearish strategy targets the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term, with a projected contact at 102.650.
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Dxy 🌊Salutations,
The US Dollar exhibits a prototypical double-zig-zag configuration,
reminiscent of what can be described as "Phase E" in the canonical Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.
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During Phase E, an asset breaks free from its trading range,
demand exerts unambiguous control and the appreciative trend becomes palpable to the discerning eye.
Potential setbacks such as shakeouts and customary corrections typically recede quickly.
Higher echelon trading ranges that encompass both profit realization and the procurement of additional holdings(“re-accumulation”) by influential stakeholders may manifest at any juncture during Phase E.
These intermediate trading arenas are sometimes metaphorically referred to as the “stepping stones,”
paving the way to even loftier price objectives.
My conjecture posits that the recently completed local Wave B in April symbolizes one such "stepping stone".
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Wave Y - 131 - 143
☿
DXY 25May2023Currently, DXY has touched the Fibo extension at value 1, meaning that the wave length that occurs is equal to Wave 1. A correction may not take long, but for the medium-term target, DXY can bounce up to Fibo extension 1,618 which is parallel to the high of wave 2.
DXY Will keep rising until it tests the 1D MA200.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has found itself rebounding, many months after the huge sell signal we gave last September (chart below):
The price rebound on the 100.790 Support that was first formed on the February 02 Low and is now above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI symmetry with the February rise, hints that the price may rise as high as the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That is above the Lower Highs trend-line and below the 105.885 Resistance but is projected to make or almost make direct contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is an excellent medium-term target, we are aiming at 105.000 to lower the risk. Note that the 1D MA200 has been intact since December 07 2022, so a rejection near it will be a strong sell opportunity.
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US DOLLAR INDEX plus CORRELATIONSDXY — RESISTANCE (4H)
✍️ Several things have led to the current success of the DXY:
(1) The Bold Way the Federal Reserve Handles Money
Interest rates were raised four times by the Fed in 2022, and this is expected to happen again in 2023. Because of this, buyers are more interested in the US dollar because it has higher interest rates than other currencies.
(2) The Conflict in Ukraine
Investors have moved away from risky investments like stocks and commodities and toward the US dollar, which is seen as a "safe haven" currency.
(3) The Sentiment of the Economy
People think that the US economy will grow more slowly in 2023 than it did in 2022. This could make fewer people want to buy US goods and services, which could cause the US dollar to fall.
(4) A Global Recession
The global economy is being pushed around by things like rising prices, problems in the supply chain, and the ongoing situation in Ukraine. These problems could lead to an economic slowdown, which would hurt the value of the US dollar.
🤔 That being said, it's possible that Price Action will respect Resistance @ 1.0255 (4H), which would make the following pairs go up in our favor:
AUDUSD 📈 EURUSD 📈 NZDUSD 📈 GBPUSD 📈
USD to drop a bit more, and create ripplesThe week ended a little confused, post NFP and other announcements.
The only slight clarity here is that over the next week (or few weeks), we should see the USD dropping a bit more, breaking down both support lines, for a few days. IF "lucky", the USD futures should reach target at 99, even for a day or two.
Now, this comes with a bit of a stretch with volatility in the other parts of the market too, affecting commodities, indexes, forex etc.
Later analysis posts, is based on the background scenario in an increased likelihood of a USD decline.
