dxy 4-14-23gm,
i called both the bottom in 2021, and the top last year on the dxy
(view posts at the bottom of this thread).
very few people heard my voice -
swinging by into the public communities to share this very general post today.
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dxy came down in 5 waves from my upside target, seemingly.
possible w5 isn't in yet as it could see a slight extension - also possible that it is.
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once 5 waves down is indeed confirmed, a three wave retracement will take place, with force.
when this retracement takes place, the markets will take a beating.
nfa.
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PS. if the dxy see's an extension for this last leg, the bear market will get extended by 365 days.
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Dollar Index Futures DX1!
DXY DX1! (USD INDEX) DOWNTRENDWith USD News due at 5:30 AM Pacific Time for me, I expect this Minor Resistance Level (see chart annotation) to get some attention from Price Action.
Now, an uptrend retracement is likely to continue if Price Action closes above the Uptrend Anchor Break at 101.0460.
However, if price action: (1) stays below 100.9750 AND (2) closes below 100.7880 (Downtrend Anchor Break), we should anticipate the downtrend to continue.
If the DXY continues to fall, the EUR/USD will continue to rise. AND THAT'S GOOD "NEWS" FOR US!!! LOL
DXY: Under its 1W MA50, solid opportunity to sell long termThe U.S. Dollar Index is retracing its weekly losses to more than 50%. The rejection on its 1W MA50 though two weeks ago, maintains the long term bearish trend and that retracement makes it a sell opportunity again. With 1W technicals still in red (RSI = 41.988, MACD = -0.570, ADX = 23.107) and the MACD in particular on the same level as the start of the final sell phases of the previous two 1year corrections, we expect DXY to reach at least the 1W MA200. TP = 98.500.
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DXY Huge H&S about to break downwards aggressivelyThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has hit our first short-term target as presented on our most recent analysis:
The major news however is that it failed to break above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) where in fact it got rejected last week. This validates the giant Head and Shoulders (H&S) idea we discussed in the past, which is now targeting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and Support Zone 2 at 98.300.
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USD at choke pointFor most of 2022, the USD rallied bullishly and pulled back in the last quarter of 2022, falling as 2023 unfolded. Recent weeks saw some recovery in the USD but it failed the 23EMA. The devil in the details show that there is a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern , which bodes ominously for the USD in the following weeks. Noted that the close had to be below 104.495, and the week candle closed just below at 104.490, thus qualifying a Dark Cloud Cover.
Having said that, the TD Sequential has the TDST support at 105.435, below which the primary trend is bearish. The following TD Buy Setup closed below and price still remained below despite a bounce.
Another note is that the Fibonacci 61.8% level is at 105.115, again forming another resistance to the USD for breakout.
Taken together, the USD is in a bad place with multiple resistances and appears to have failed these levels. The VolDIv shows a downward movement, albeit the MACD suggesting a short term upside.
Expecting the USD to fall in the coming weeks, maybe months to follow... watch 102 as a potential bounce area.
DXY: Consolidation and sell after the 1D MA50 breaks.The Dollar Index got rejected on R1 (105.830) that is the Resistance that formed the December 7th and January 6th Highs and turned neureal on its 1D technicals (RSI = 51.995, MACD = 0.460, ADX = 33.297). We expect some consolidation inside the R1 - S1 (103.470) range, same as in December but when the 1D MA50 breaks, we will turn bearish (TP = 101.000) targeting S2.
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DXY Excellent sell level, rejection confirmed.The U.S. Dollar Index got rejected on its January 06 High Resistance and even though it is on a short-term Channel Up, the Resistance rejection as well as mostly the September 29 Lower Highs trend-line, will soon start to weigh sell pressure on the price action.
With the 1D RSI printing a Head and Shoulders formation similar to September - October 2022, we remain short, targeting 103.700 (1D MA50) on the short-term and if a candle closes below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), extend selling towards the Support Zone (Target 2 = 102.700).
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DXY Channel Up targets the January High. Sell if 4HMA100 breaks.The U.S. Dollar Index is headed towards critical crossroads as the 105.650 January 06 High is the most important Resistance with relation to the long-term trend. If broken the medium-term bullish trend transitions to the long-term.
The February Channel Up is supported by the 4H MA100 (green trend-line). If broken, we will take a sell targeting the 4H MA200 at 103.700. If we close a 4H candle below it, we will re-sell and target just above the Support Zone at 102.700.
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DXY Potential Double Top. Sell opportunity.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) came close o the 105.650 Resistance of the January 06 High and currently has been rejected. This was a level that failed to break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is holding as Resistance since December and is also inside the Pivot Zone that formed three rejections and one rebound since May 13 2022.
With the RSI almost breaching into the overbought zone (70.00) and getting rejected, it is very likely that the 105.650 Resistance will turn into a Double Top and reject the price lower. With the long-term pattern since the September top being so far a Channel Down, it is likely that the rejection will deliver Lower Lows for the Channel, initially to Support 2 (Target 99.500) and in extension Support 3 (Target 97.500), as it appears that the Higher Lows gaps of the uptrend are systematically targeted during this downtrend.
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DXY: 1D MA50 and Channel Down rejectionDXY which is short for the U.S. Dollar Index, got rejected at the top of the Channel Down and the 1D MA50. The 4H MA200 is providing the short term Support but since the 1 day sequence is Lower Highs and Lower Lows, it should break on the next Low.
The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 54.316, MACD = -0.150, ADX = 34.104) after turning overbought yesterday and the day before. The last time the 4H RSI was overbought was on January 6th which was the previous Lower High. The last two Lower Highs settled initially for a -2.50% price fall, so our target will be right over that limit (TP = 101.500).
Previous chart:
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DXY Above the 4H MA50 targeting the 1D MA50The US Dollar Index has now the opportunity to test the 4H MA50 as a Support, chaning the short term 4H technicals to neutral (RSI = 49.586, MACD = 0.050, ADX = 33.920). The last time this happened was early this month (January 4th). The 4H MA50 held and pushed DXY for a last peak and Lower High on the two month Channel Down over the 4H MA200. This time the 1D MA50 is trading inside the Channel. Our target is 103.500.
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DXY Don't lose sight of the big picture. Still bearish.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been somewhat consolidating lately in the past 2 weeks. Last time we warned that upon a pending Death Cross on the 1D time-frame, more pain would come:
It appears that we caught the exact high before a new round of selling on the USD. To maintain a broad perspective, it is useful now to look at the last two times it formed a 1D Death Cross. As you see the drop from the moment of the Death Cross until the bottom was fairly similar, -9.75% and -8.75%. An average drop of this, sets the target on the current Death Cross drop to around 96.000.
The 1W RSI offers a good perspective as to when the price hits the middle of this drop and that is when the RSI makes the first rebound after reaching the 30.000 oversold level. In those 2 past occurrences, it made one last rebound back above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before dropping towards its bottom.
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DXY Straight to the 1W MA200 (98.000) is possibleDXY is trading much lower than the 1W MA50 and is unphazed by the 1W technicals that are quickly approaching an oversold state (RSI = 35.543, MACD = -0.830, ADX = 32.507). With the pattern that has been confirmed as a Head and Shoulders since the September peak, it is possible to see a straight continuation of the downtrend to at least the 1W MA200.
Since mid November we see a straight Channel Down leading the price to the imporant 101.260 Support (May 30th low). A similar bearish Channel while the RSI was that low on 1W was formed during the 2017 downtrend that hit the 1W MA200 with ease.
As a consequence, a breach of the 101.260 Support will be all the confirmation we need to extend our selling and target the 1W MA200 on the long term.
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