DXY Will keep rising until it tests the 1D MA200.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has found itself rebounding, many months after the huge sell signal we gave last September (chart below):
The price rebound on the 100.790 Support that was first formed on the February 02 Low and is now above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI symmetry with the February rise, hints that the price may rise as high as the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That is above the Lower Highs trend-line and below the 105.885 Resistance but is projected to make or almost make direct contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is an excellent medium-term target, we are aiming at 105.000 to lower the risk. Note that the 1D MA200 has been intact since December 07 2022, so a rejection near it will be a strong sell opportunity.
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Dollar Index Futures DX1!
US DOLLAR INDEX plus CORRELATIONSDXY — RESISTANCE (4H)
✍️ Several things have led to the current success of the DXY:
(1) The Bold Way the Federal Reserve Handles Money
Interest rates were raised four times by the Fed in 2022, and this is expected to happen again in 2023. Because of this, buyers are more interested in the US dollar because it has higher interest rates than other currencies.
(2) The Conflict in Ukraine
Investors have moved away from risky investments like stocks and commodities and toward the US dollar, which is seen as a "safe haven" currency.
(3) The Sentiment of the Economy
People think that the US economy will grow more slowly in 2023 than it did in 2022. This could make fewer people want to buy US goods and services, which could cause the US dollar to fall.
(4) A Global Recession
The global economy is being pushed around by things like rising prices, problems in the supply chain, and the ongoing situation in Ukraine. These problems could lead to an economic slowdown, which would hurt the value of the US dollar.
🤔 That being said, it's possible that Price Action will respect Resistance @ 1.0255 (4H), which would make the following pairs go up in our favor:
AUDUSD 📈 EURUSD 📈 NZDUSD 📈 GBPUSD 📈
USD to drop a bit more, and create ripplesThe week ended a little confused, post NFP and other announcements.
The only slight clarity here is that over the next week (or few weeks), we should see the USD dropping a bit more, breaking down both support lines, for a few days. IF "lucky", the USD futures should reach target at 99, even for a day or two.
Now, this comes with a bit of a stretch with volatility in the other parts of the market too, affecting commodities, indexes, forex etc.
Later analysis posts, is based on the background scenario in an increased likelihood of a USD decline.
USD looks to break last low and support... The USD Futures Daily chart is already pointing that way... Once it breaks the yellow support line, it will look for 99.
MACD slowing its ascent, while VolDiv is crossing down itself and below zero line.
TD Setup is bearish for the USD.
Bearish outlook overall.
USD to slide more...watch the rest of the week.
The USD is likely to slide down further based on the MACD; but VolDiv suggests that it is not likely to be a drastic off the cliff type.
A revisit to the last low is very probable (small yellow ellipse) as it broke down the TDST (red dotted line) and should continue to remain below. If it closes the week below the TDST, USD is in a firm bearish trend and next downside target is at 99.
us dolla?good eve'
last post for awhile ---
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-pretty channel,
-rejected 221 dma
-bear flagging,
-less people are interested in this currency these days.
---
us dollar looks to me like it's ready to capitulate.
my estimated downside target is 92.
> do what you will with this information.
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read further:
4-28-23 [dxy]good day,
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yesterday i shared a very conservative case on the us dollar,
but after seeing the unfolding structure,
i have come back to revise the case.
i am predicting that the dxy expands upward in a fairly aggressive impulse upwards into may via an expanded flat.
---
will update as it goes,
but for now it's looking like we're heading up to roughly 105-106.
stay safe!
DXY: 1D MA50 closing decides the trend.DXY has found Support on S1 (100.800) and turned rather sideways on 1D as also shown by its technicals (RSI = 46.877, MACD = -0.410, ADX = 14.027). The RSI carries strong similarities with the November-January decline so as long as the price trades under the 1D MA50, we will be bearish aiming at the Channel Down bottom (TP = 99.000). If it closes a candle over the 1D MA50, we will turn bullish short term aiming at the Channel's top (TP = 104.000) and then sell.
Prior idea:
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4-27-23 [dxy]hello,
just wanted to share an extra layer of confluence,
supporting my latest spx post.
---
the us dollar, has been very corrective on this entire move down -
i will not share my full count (yet).
---
>i am theorizing that it breaks down in the month(s) ahead leading into the summer time.
---
prior to the breakdown,
i'd like to see it backtest the last point of supply.
if a rejection is apparent,
that is what i believe will cause an aggressive up-thrust in the stock market.
dxy [macro outlook].good eve'
---
don't think i've ever shared my bull macro dxy outlook,
so here it is.
---
won't give you any reasoning behind this theory as i am not a fundamentalist or anything -
just a data scientist who makes predictions using the stars.
---
i'm theorizing that the us dollar hits 131 (at the minimum) by 2028.
this will be devastating for the global markets.
✌
DXY could be starting a bullish reversal.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rebounding aggressively today after holding the 100.815 Support (February 02 Low), on the strongest 4H candle so far in a month. It remains below both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA100 (green trend-line), trading inside both a core Channel Down (blue) and a Diverging Channel Down (dotted).
The very same pattern was seen prior to the February 02 Low. The Ichimoku Clouds are identical as well as the RSIs, which after Lower Lows formed a Double Bottom and rebounded. If the price breaks above the top of the Diverging Channel Down, then we will most likely see a rally extension to the 0.618 Fibonacci at 103.950. If rejected, we will resume selling and target 100.450.
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dxy 4-14-23gm,
i called both the bottom in 2021, and the top last year on the dxy
(view posts at the bottom of this thread).
very few people heard my voice -
swinging by into the public communities to share this very general post today.
---
dxy came down in 5 waves from my upside target, seemingly.
possible w5 isn't in yet as it could see a slight extension - also possible that it is.
---
once 5 waves down is indeed confirmed, a three wave retracement will take place, with force.
when this retracement takes place, the markets will take a beating.
nfa.
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PS. if the dxy see's an extension for this last leg, the bear market will get extended by 365 days.
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✌
DXY DX1! (USD INDEX) DOWNTRENDWith USD News due at 5:30 AM Pacific Time for me, I expect this Minor Resistance Level (see chart annotation) to get some attention from Price Action.
Now, an uptrend retracement is likely to continue if Price Action closes above the Uptrend Anchor Break at 101.0460.
However, if price action: (1) stays below 100.9750 AND (2) closes below 100.7880 (Downtrend Anchor Break), we should anticipate the downtrend to continue.
If the DXY continues to fall, the EUR/USD will continue to rise. AND THAT'S GOOD "NEWS" FOR US!!! LOL
DXY: Under its 1W MA50, solid opportunity to sell long termThe U.S. Dollar Index is retracing its weekly losses to more than 50%. The rejection on its 1W MA50 though two weeks ago, maintains the long term bearish trend and that retracement makes it a sell opportunity again. With 1W technicals still in red (RSI = 41.988, MACD = -0.570, ADX = 23.107) and the MACD in particular on the same level as the start of the final sell phases of the previous two 1year corrections, we expect DXY to reach at least the 1W MA200. TP = 98.500.
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DXY Huge H&S about to break downwards aggressivelyThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has hit our first short-term target as presented on our most recent analysis:
The major news however is that it failed to break above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) where in fact it got rejected last week. This validates the giant Head and Shoulders (H&S) idea we discussed in the past, which is now targeting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and Support Zone 2 at 98.300.
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USD at choke pointFor most of 2022, the USD rallied bullishly and pulled back in the last quarter of 2022, falling as 2023 unfolded. Recent weeks saw some recovery in the USD but it failed the 23EMA. The devil in the details show that there is a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern , which bodes ominously for the USD in the following weeks. Noted that the close had to be below 104.495, and the week candle closed just below at 104.490, thus qualifying a Dark Cloud Cover.
Having said that, the TD Sequential has the TDST support at 105.435, below which the primary trend is bearish. The following TD Buy Setup closed below and price still remained below despite a bounce.
Another note is that the Fibonacci 61.8% level is at 105.115, again forming another resistance to the USD for breakout.
Taken together, the USD is in a bad place with multiple resistances and appears to have failed these levels. The VolDIv shows a downward movement, albeit the MACD suggesting a short term upside.
Expecting the USD to fall in the coming weeks, maybe months to follow... watch 102 as a potential bounce area.
DXY: Consolidation and sell after the 1D MA50 breaks.The Dollar Index got rejected on R1 (105.830) that is the Resistance that formed the December 7th and January 6th Highs and turned neureal on its 1D technicals (RSI = 51.995, MACD = 0.460, ADX = 33.297). We expect some consolidation inside the R1 - S1 (103.470) range, same as in December but when the 1D MA50 breaks, we will turn bearish (TP = 101.000) targeting S2.
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DXY Excellent sell level, rejection confirmed.The U.S. Dollar Index got rejected on its January 06 High Resistance and even though it is on a short-term Channel Up, the Resistance rejection as well as mostly the September 29 Lower Highs trend-line, will soon start to weigh sell pressure on the price action.
With the 1D RSI printing a Head and Shoulders formation similar to September - October 2022, we remain short, targeting 103.700 (1D MA50) on the short-term and if a candle closes below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), extend selling towards the Support Zone (Target 2 = 102.700).
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