Dollar Index Futures DX1!
DOLLAR - It reminds me of Wolverine... They keep printing it... but it keeps rising
The dollar reminds me of the experiment done on Wolverine, pumped him up with lot's of Adamantium until he became a beast. So here we go we have tons of new dollars but they are heavier than most would understand.
Fed-men Apocalypse, the rise of the mighty X-dollar
How the value of the Dollar and Gold impact marketsThis is a little different than what I usually do. Very straight forward line charts of the IXIC, DJI, and SPY. Showing how the changes in the value of the Dollar over Gold, impact the market. I know this isn’t the only influencing factor, as each market has its own levers, but this simple deviation of the two can weigh heavily on the markets.
DOLLAR seems ready for a nice dipDolalr index starts to sho weakness. NFP was negative and even worse the Avergae Hourly Earnings result is a problem the Feds will have to face..
Bad news, fundamentally and technically , the dollar seems to be weak at this moment.
DOLLAR -Dead Cat Bounce? The dollar index chart updated. It has risen today like it has done frequently recently but unable to break over the resistance.
Given that the Federal Reserve news are on in a few hours, it will be a very interesting session later on today.
We will be on alert for more volatility in the next few hours
DOLLAR INDEX - Remains IndecisiveThere is nothing more important to a trader than a good prediction of the dollar's performance. At this stage and since mid-November last year, the dollar index has been going sideways. It landed on our calculated support but failed to find either a good rebound or a break through to dip lower.
At this point it's important to understand what the dollar index is.:
'The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX, or, informally, the "Dixie") is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies.'
So, we have a dollar going sideways against the rest of the fiat currencies. At the same time we have a stagnation (no great movements) in the price of Gold, whereas now Bitcoin is also sideways, correcting and flirting with 35k+ in a hard-to predict manner.
In other words fellows: when the dollar finally moves and oicks a direction, our trading will be easier. For the time being it's a cloudy and difficult time to trade so one must be able to hedge, diversify and take profits relatively early. Not a great time for swing trades, scalping seems to have better chances at this moment and it is key for a trader to be able to adjust based on changing market conditions.
When can the dollar find direction?
Well, either data or other fundamentals. Keep your eyes and ears open, things can change in a day, an hour , a single minute.
USD looks like it is about to explode...The DX1! US Dollar futures weekly chart suggests that it is about to explode upwards.
It is nearing the end of the falling wedge, and MACD just crossed up, with the RPM ready to turn upwards. Oddly enough, the candlestick pattern signals a conflicting stall though... hence, a strong event needs to happen, for a breaking and explosive move... UP
DX1 during Dec'20looking at broad picture, it seems DX1 would be in a down trend during Dec'20 expecting to visit maximum 88.000 level so far.
Hence reversal sould be early 2021 and if there is good pace would make a top by Dec 2023, if market move little bit slow then top can be achived by Dec 2025.
DXY - Our updated Small ChartOur updated small chart with possible scenarios, according to my analysis.
DXY- Volatility Inbound ⚠️🛎️Clearly on a descending formation now, 3 levels of support on our updated chart and MOST IMPORTANTLY: Jerome Powel will talk in a few minutes.
Get ready, expect volatility, trade!
Prognostics: I am 61% Bearish on the dollar at this very moment
🤔Dollar rising and Gold rising (as expected!)😉Our updated Dollar chart. Close to major resistance again.
Funnily, dollar is rising and commodities are rising which is a big discussion I will try to keep it extra short:
no inflation, dollar is doomed...what happens to gold then? it goes UP
high inflation, dollar goes down and therefore people tend to hold money in the form of gold (and btc). Therefore, in times when inflation remains high over a longer period, gold becomes a tool to hedge against inflationary conditions. This pushes gold prices higher in the inflationary period. So Gold up again 🔝
Weird yes? Not really, it's the times we live in, the times are weird more than the prices. An it will be a crazy year.
ps. CIP (inflation) data came out exactly as forecasted, no major news on inflation today. I had prognosed that Gold will rise together with dollar just 3 days ago. ask me privately and I will show you )
ps2. Dollar rising and Gold rising...what happens if dollar drops next?? Take a wild guess guys
DOLLAR - Back for good or temporary? (INFLATION WILL BE KEY🔑)Well guys we will find out soon, on Wednesday.
Last Friday we were all bombarded with headline news for poor jobs (NFP) but we did not neglect to take into account 2 things:
a. unemployment rate dropped (good for dollar) - important
b Average hourly Earnings rose by 0,8% (vs 0,2% forecast) - VERY IMPORTANT!!!
Why was average hourly earnings so important?
Well first let's understand what Average Hourly Earnings is:
It is the change in the price businesses pay for labor. When the Actual is greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency. It means this - INFLATION!
WAGES GROWING = INFLATION
Inflation right now IS GREAT NEWS FOR CENTRAL BANKS!
Why?
Well let's keep it simple: If they owe 70 trillion dollars (for example) and the economy is worth say 10 trillion dollars, they would prefer the economy to be worth 20 trillion dollars because that way the debt becomes a smaller percentage of the wealth. More controlable.
So what happens next??
Well, if last Friday we had inflation (headlines were misleading you all on the poor jobs but we didn't get tricked) then on Wednesday we have the BIG inflation numbers coming out:
CPI and CORE CPI coming out in 2 days :
Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Got is guys? Inflation is KEY 🔑
Want some more?
On Wednesday we will also know the Federal Budget Balance (Difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month).
In other words, have fun struggling with these markets conditions until Wednesday. After that, things will be crystal clear.
The USD rising again !Two weeks ago, the USD was seen to obviously be in a bullish divergence and was squeezing to burst up.
On Friday, it just did that... so to demonstrate the daily chart would be used instead.
The USD (no surprise here) popped up on Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, the USD index bounced off the descending wedge support and Friday's candlestick was a Gap Up, breaking out of a downtrend line.
Technicals support this move as MACD crossed up, while the Price Momentum crossed over into the bullish zone, as marked by the green time line.
Quite clear technical bounce observed here. Now to see if it is sustainable or trend changing.
Btw... I'm a little cautious on seeing this chart. Because, in order for the USD index to rally really hard, and breakout of the descending wedge from this point, some pretty devastating event needs to happen. Nothing in plain sight, except for the US President handover, the alarming COVID-19 spread and massacre. Something major is brewing...
Time for the USD to rise again... The USD has been falling significantly, and is now bullishly divergent in technical terms with relation to the MACD and the Relative Price Momentum.
an early attempt was just made, and despite a hasty retreat, this may be forming the consolidative base before a breakout rally ensues.
This appears in line to expectations that the S&P500 is due for a pullback on bearish divergence, Gold having a suspicious type of short term rally, and Bitcoin pulling back slightly.
DXY - Dollar video / Buying on sentimentTime to attempt a Buy on the dolalr guys.
The 'not-so undisputed these days' King is right on a MAJOR support level.
Will the Feds give it a boost North? Or will it sink further?
The dollar selloff continue....Lost support, headed down to the next one as the chart shows.
I was looking at this because I want to short Japan & Korea, but it's best to wait until the dollar stops tanking. Looks to me like it will hit support next Friday, probably on the usual Friday pump.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐The MOST IMPORTANT CHART of the year ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐1. Dollar is looking for direction (will it bounce off this level or will it drop/ and how much?)
2. NFP tomorrow is HUGE data coming out and will push Dollar over or off the current level (price is now on a crucial support level )
3. Next inflation data (Dec 10) and trade balances will be crucial data
4. Dollar price will affect most of your trades:
- metals (negative correlation- especially Gold , Silver , Copper )
- indices (positive coefficients, which means that as the value of the U.S. dollar increases, so do the stock indexes )
- stocks (which shares to choose / which to sell / how to diversify and hedge - 40% of shares follow the dollar)
- Bitcoin (the new safe haven to many may increase dramatically if the dollar crashes)
Yellen’s new appointment and future of American DollarDollar bears love hearing that Joe Biden (if and when he takes control of the White House) will appoint Janet Yellen as the next Treasury secretary, making Yellen the first woman to hold the position.
Traders see Yellen as a "dove", meaning she should be very accommodative and a strong proponent of rates staying lower for longer. Also, since she was formerly the Fed Chair and leader for the Council of Economic Advisors she will create a strong working relationship across the financial industry. Perhaps more than anything the market fully understands how Yellen communicates and views the economy. Remember, Yellen was Vice Chair under Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, during which they navigated the economy through the 2008 financial crisis.
As Fed Chair, she maintained the Fed's ultra-low rate policy well into 2015 and presided over a period of tremendous job growth.
Keep in mind, the head of the Treasury is typically the one negotiating with Congress on behalf of the White House, so it's seen as one of the most critical roles right now.
Let's also not forget we have some serious political uncertainty still in the mix during the next 45-days. with the run-off Senate election in Georgia, and the ongoing debates and recounts surrounding the Presidential debates.
This week we are waiting for Retail sales, the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys. Negative numbers plus virus cases rise, and lockdown fears may bring the dollar to new lows.
With all that in mind, I want to focus on the monthly chart of the American dollar. It has a flagging pattern similar to the one we saw in 2017. Taking into account all the fundamentals, there is a big chance to see another breakdown in a long-term perspective.
However, we are getting close to the end of the year, and the risk of potential massive profit booking is increasing. Closing of big positions may result in a rally to 96 range. I believe the 4h chart is the best option to focus on.
Time for the USD to rise...Previous talk about USD destruction, etc. have come a long way, and the USD indeed has devalued due to fundamentals. However, it broke out of a falling triangle/wedge, tested and is on the break out. For whatever reasons, the skew in the markets have pushed the USD too far down, and it is time for a USD rise. Clearly, sparked off by fear and such... so much so that bonds, precious metals and crude will be affected.
In retrospect, in mid-September, the signal was given as a preemptive warning.
Now, it is in a true breakout and should have its effect on dropping Gold and precious metals such as Silver. Crude would suffer. Bonds should be in good demand, etc.
Technically, the MACD (middle panel) is already showing support. The BMT (lowest panel) showing the relative strength and momentum is also breaking up with gusto, in good support for a size-able run up.
The USD Index is about to have a massive run up towards the end of the year, targeting 102 possibly, based on chart pattern break out.
