TOP 5. Issue 15 from 17.11.2019Weekly update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments where I place around 90% of the deals.
These include: Gold , Crude Oil , EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB .
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Disclaimer:
By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
Dx1
Dollar Index: Approaching the Buy Zone.DXY has been trading within a very long term Channel Up on 1M since May 2018 (RSI = 56.323, MACD = 0.620, Highs/Lows = 0.0491). The standard setting of Higher Highs and Higher Lows on the 1D MA50 and MA200 periods has been very helpful in recognizing early buy and sell entries as it happened on our latest analyses:
As the moment and following the Higher High on the Inner Higher High trend line (dashed line), the price is pulling back having already crossed the 1D MA50 (blue line). This is similar to the December 2018 - January 2019 sequence that eventually made contact with the 1D MA200 (orange line) and rebounded. We are expecting a similar price action this time also. Our Target Zone is again 99.50 - 99.80.
On a side-note, attention is required once the price hits 100.00 as last time DXY traded on that level was late April 2017. Upon contact we will follow up with an update for a longer term strategy on this one.
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DXY Nearing Supply Zone - Short Trade SetupDXY looks like it is setting up for a possible spike higher, but into strong resistance. Watch for sellers to step in if we break higher into the box region.
99.5 is a cluster of weekly candle closes and should offer strong resistance (previous swing high wick also). 100 psycological level above that, so bulls have their work cut out for them.. :)
USD bulls went on a rampage yesterday.... Large daily candle may leave bulls a bit exhausted.
Interested if a reversal in DXY will lead to a shift in risk sentiment. SPX nearing resistance around 3000, due for a little selloff imo... Watching gold / silver also for signs of support and a long entry opportunity.
Dollar Index: Potential rebound points. Near 100 target.DXY has been trading within a long term 1M Channel Up (RSI = 58.550, MACD = 0.590, Highs/Lows = 0.6224) since May 2018. The pace has been very steady and the High - Low signals clear. The price mostly traded on the inner channel with the 1D MA50 and MA200 coming to support the next rise to a Higher High.
We are currently pulling back from such a Higher High and the two potential rebound points are the MA periods and to a lesser extent (as it was only needed two times in the past year) the outer Higher Low of the 1M Channel Up.
The targeted zone is 99.50 - 99.80 as suggested by the Low-to-High sequence.
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Dollar Topped?Dollar seems to have topped for now and might be headed to 96.50 short term, If lower Trendline breaks we might see a bigger drop. MACD sell signal triggered. Fed will most likely cut rates in Sep
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Dollar Index: Approaching the Higher Low. Buy opportunity.DXY was rejected in late May on a Double Top on 1D and sellers stepped in to push the price lower within the dominant pattern of the 1M Channel Up (RSI = 53.041, MACD = 0.390, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). The price broke below both the MA50 and MA200 but so far no Death Cross has taken place, so the selling will most likely stop on the Channel's Higher Low around 95.65. This is a strong buy opportunity for the next Higher High leg towards 98.90.
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Dollar Index: Sell opportunity on 4H. DXY is on a 4H Channel Down trading at the moment on its Lower High zone (RSI = 52.008, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). The long term 1W Channel Up provides support on its Higher Low zone (red rotated Rectangle) so we expect the selling to continue but on a limited extent. Our TP is 97.00.
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Dollar Index: Resistance break out. More upside potential.The Dollar index broke the 97.70 1D Resistance this week, which has been rejecting any upside attempt since November 2018. This break out opens the way to further upside within the monthly Channel Up (RSI = 60.408, MACD = 0.450, Highs/Lows = 2.2271), which aims at a new Higher High. By our calculations this should be near 99.00 (inner channel), before the Channel pulls back again as it has done after every inner High pricing since May 2018. The extension afterwards goes as high as 99.70.
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Dollar Index: Buy opportunity lower.Following its most recent bull leg on 1D, the Dollar Index was again rejected near the 97.70 1W Resistance, causing the 4H Channel Up to break downwards (RSI = 40.558, MACD = -0.060, Highs/Lows = -0.0793, B/BP = -0.1870). This rejection technically calls for a re-testing of the 95.80 1D Support. However the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 54.944, MACD = 0.450, Highs/Lows = 0.0042) has its technical Higher Low earlier within 96.00 - 96.20 so it may rebound there. Our TP will be 97.50 upon the rebound.
On a sidenote, it is obvious that the 1W Resistance (97.70) has been rejecting every upside break out attempt since November 2018. The 1W Channel Up runs the risk of breaking the Channel (at best sideways) if the 1W Resistance doesn't break on the next test. If it doesn't break, the probability of a bearish break-out towards 95.00 will be greater and then we will need to discuss the high probability of a long term trend change. Updates will follow.
Take a look at our previous analysis, which took advantage of the 95.80 low:
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Dollar Index: Long opportunity on 1D and 1W.DXY is currently on a Higher Low mark within the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 46.563, ADX = 18.030, MACD = 0.030, Highs/Lows = -0.1686). A rebound is expected from the current level but if that fails, the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 52.527, MACD = 0.430, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) will provide the last support level at 95.80. On a long term basis the Dollar Index remains a buy opportunity and our TP is 98.00 with 98.00 as the extension.
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Dollar Index: Attention. It may break below the bullish Channel.This is a 4 year illustration of DXY's trading behavior. The chart is quite descriptive itself and since the scale is very long term it is not intended to be a trading suggestion.
It is more to give an alternative idea to the Dollar's volatile patterns lately. There is a certain sequence which shows that the index may break the 1W Channel Up downwards. The Lower High made three weeks ago is a first sign of bearish reversal. We are just calling for attention.
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Dollar Index: Double Long opportunity. Still bullish.DXY continues to trade on the 1W Channel Up started on May 2018. With 1W technicals mostly neutral (RSI = 53.089, ADX = 18.480, Highs/Lows = 0.0000, STOCH = 48.384) the pattern is indicating that we are on possible rebound levels. As seen on the chart the price is on the inner supporting line of the Channel (A). Technically the maximum downside is on the outer layer (B). That is a double long entry opportunity, TP = 98.00.
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Dollar Index (DXY). Global strength of USD could be underwayDXY couldn't break below former valley of 95.03 and now we are heading to break the former top above 96.68.
This could make valid the unfolding of 5 waves up in larger wave (5) (green) to touch the big top of 103.82.
On a bigger time frames (see related) we can go even higher.
Dollar Index: Bullish recurring patterns.A simple display of recurring patterns on DXY indicates that a strong bullish leg is about to take place. Each of those patterns delivered at least a +3% rise so we can assume that the price is headed towards 99.00 in January/ February.
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Long term approach intact. Short.The US Dollar Index continues to trade within its 1D Rectangle (RSI = 53.043, STOCH = 50.681, Williams = -48.067, CCI = 8.9068, Highs/Lows = 0), supported at 93.200 and resisted at 95.25. Today's position is a short, TP = 93.450. A lower break out is expected around one month's time, as seen on the chart.
Dollar Index (DXY). Head & ShouldersI spotted the Head & Shoulders pattern in the DXY chart and share it with you here.
It has slope down and it fortifies the short idea.
The Neckline is located around 89.30-89.40 level.
The calculated target is set at the 87.90 level. (Neckline minus Head's Height)