DXY The bottom is near. Excellent opportunity.The U.S. Dollar Index has been declining since the October 3rd High and is now under the MA200 (1d).
The RSI (1d) is nearly oversold and is double bottoming on the 30.00 level, while the price is approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the July 14th bottom.
That will be a -4.50% decline, comparable to all three major decline of 2023: -4.55%, -4.85% and -4.88%.
Trading Plan:
1. Start buying on the current market price with a maximum extension up to -4.88%.
Targets:
1. 105.500 (the 0.618 Fibonacci level), can even extend as high as 106.200 (near the 0.786 Fibonacci level like the High of May 31st).
Tips:
1. The CCI (1d) is posting a Bullish Divergence on a Rising Support, like those of March-April and late January. This indicates that a final tick downwards is possible before calling it a bottom. But a strong indication to start buying already an oversold price level.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Dx1
US Dollar Faces Supports: Potential Double Bottom Signals MarketUS Dollar Faces Supports: Potential Double Bottom Signals Market Dynamics
Major currency pairs continue their range-bound movement on Monday as investors refrain from making significant directional bets. The market sentiment is cautious due to escalating concerns, with investors eyeing key inflation data releases from both the United States (US) and the Eurozone later in the week.
Early Monday, Asian markets saw declines, influenced by the People’s Bank of China's (PBOC) lack of detailed information on stimulus measures for private firms and rising respiratory illnesses in China. The ongoing decrease in China’s Industrial Profits, coupled with uncertainty surrounding major central banks' interest rate outlooks, further contributed to the subdued market mood.
The return of US traders after the Thanksgiving holiday break is awaited, and the US S&P 500 futures, considered a risk barometer, indicate a 0.30% decline on the day.
Despite the cautious market sentiment, the US Dollar experiences selling pressure as it hovers around the 103.200 zone. Notably, there's potential for a Double Bottom formation, suggesting a strong recovery for the USD. The existence of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $105.000 becomes noteworthy, serving as a potential target point in the event of a market reversal.
Our Preference
Above 102.600 look for further upside with 104.2150 & 105.000 as targets.
Go Down, Moses.. To Let My Shekel Go... 😕Shekel drops to 4 against the dollar, in first since 2015.
Currency’s weakness comes as conflict rages, even after Bank of Israel announced plan to intervene in the foreign exchange market to try and contain sharp shekel FOREXCOM:USDILS moves.
The exchange rate of the New Israeli Shekel on Monday crossed the threshold of NIS 4 per dollar, the local currency’s weakest level since 2015, with Israel in its 10th day of conflict with the Hamas terror group.
Since the devastating massacre launched by Hamas on October 7 in Israel’s southern communities, in which more than 1,300 were killed, more than 4,000 injured, and some 200 kidnapped by terrorists, the shekel has dropped by about four percent against the US dollar.
Investor uncertainty over the duration and scope of the conflict has been growing in recent days, with the Israel Defense Forces gearing up for a ground operation to smash the terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip.
The currency’s weakness comes even as the Bank of Israel last week announced a plan to intervene in the foreign exchange market to try and moderate shekel volatility after the country formally declared a state of war. As part of the program, the central bank can sell up to $30 billion in foreign exchange to protect the shekel from collapse.
It was also introduced to “provide necessary liquidity for the continued proper functioning of the markets,” the Bank of Israel said.
Israel’s consumer price index (CPI), a measure of inflation that tracks the average cost of household goods, unexpectedly decelerated 0.1% in September, before Hamas’s unprecedented attack, figures by the statistics bureau.
Following the lower-than-expected September print, economists and market participants have started to price in an interest rate cut by the Bank of Israel as early as at its next monetary policy meeting on October 23, or even earlier, should it be necessary.
The September CPI index points to the fact that the economy was slowing even before the conflict broke out.
Meanwhile technical graph for FOREXCOM:USDILS says, U.S. dollar is about to break out major multi year resistance against shekel, where 4 shekels is a key to watch at the end of Q4'23.
DXY: Channel Down on the 1D timeframe.The U.S. Dollar Index is reversing at the top of October's Channel Down on a technical outlook that is about to turn neutral (RSI = 56.064, MACD = 0.260, ADX = 25.484). As long as the price stays inside the Channel Down, we are bearish, aiming at the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 105.225). If the price crosses over the top of the Channel Down, while the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, we will buy, aiming at the R1 level (TP = 108.000).
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EURO VS U.S. DOLLAR. TO LOW, OR NOT TO LOW. THIS IS THE QUESTIONThis publication is for Euro against U.S. dollar, and quick and simple as well as all other publications by @Pandorra
2023 is about the end, so let's take a look on technical perspectives for FX:EURUSD .
The main graph is EURUSD semi-annual 6-month chart (yes, they also exist on TradingView, as well as quarterly 3-month charts and annual 12-month charts).
EURUSD is being concentrated on multi year floor, with lowest levels at semi-annual close around 1.05 (actual again in this time).
Well, recently being inspired with finding NASDAQ:TLT multi year floor, I guess that breaking down the 1.05 floor in EURUSD can turn the price much and much lower.
Maybe to 1.6 Euro for 1 U.S. Dollar somewhere in mid or late 2020s, or early 2030s.
Patience.. Patience.. and once again Patience..
The Time will show.
Dollar looks into the skyThere is much noise about dollar losing its king status in the world.
The drop in the yellow wave b within a correction could have spurred that speculation.
You can see that it was a natural move to retest broken former barrier.
It was successfully rejected as the price bounced up quickly.
The target for the next move could be around $125
where yellow wave c will be equal to yellow wave a.
The next possible target is around $141
where yellow wave c will be equal to 1.618 of yellow wave a.
Where do you think DXY would go next?
-$125
-$141
-down
DXY/USD ~ Flat Bottom Pattern + Inverse H&S (15min)TVC:DXY developing flat bottom pattern after rejecting upper parallel channel + potential inverse H&S pattern, TBC.
Inverse H&S Playbook (Long):
- Break above 200MA/38.2% Fib/descending trend-line confluence
- Reject 50% Fib/overhead supply (white box) confluence then bounce off 38.2% Fib to create the "Right Shoulder"
- Re-test & break (hold) above overhead supply confluence to activate inverse H&S pattern
- TP 1st target = ~107.70-108 21st Nov 2022 wick top/supply (red box)
Inverse H&S breakout also coincides w/ break above ascending parallel channel.
Flat Bottom Bear Break Playbook (Short):
- Break below horizontal "Flat Bottom" line to re-test middle trend-line (dark blue/dashed)
- Failed re-test of Flat Bottom &/or middle trend-line validates Bearish price action
- Moving averages (esp. 200MA) act as dynamic resistance, pushing price action towards lower parallel channel
- TP 1st target = ~106-105.70 (green box)
DXY King Dollar has still fuel on this rally.The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is on a strong 3 month rally that has taken the market by surprise. However if we look on the (much) larger time-frames such as today's 1M (monthly), we see that this move wasn't so unexpected.
First of all, the price rebounded just before it hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). On a large scale, DXY is simply extending the Channel Up pattern that emerged after the market broken above the Lower Highs of 1985 on the January 2015 candle. Fed wanted to believe it but this break-out extended the Channel Up that has already started on the 2008 bottom, the peak of the Housing Crisis. The central bank policies certainly achieved at keeping the greenback the most desired currency in the world.
Now back to the analysis, we can see that the 1M RSI symmetry suggests that the price might be on the final bullish wave before a new correction to or even below the 1M MA50. Still though, the current bullish wave has much room to grow before it exhausts.
Do you think it will keep rising and maybe reverse by Q2 2024?
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DXY Channel Up close to peaking.The U.S. Dollar Index is trading inside a Channel Up pattern for more than 2 months.
The price is approaching an inner Rising Resistance, similar to late August, a quick breah of which caused the Higher High peak on Fibonacci 1.618.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the Rising Resistance.
Targets:
1. 105.350 (bottom of Channel Up, Fib 1.0, -1.44% from a potential top).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is already overbought. An additional sell indication.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DXY: Moment of truth on the 105.900 ResistanceThe U.S. Dollar Index is rising on an almost overbought 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 69.699, MACD = 0.650, ADX = 30.040) supported by a HL trendline. Following the 1D Golden Cross (first since July 26th 2021), it is now facing the most important Resistance for the long term, R1 at 105.900.
We will go long if a 1D candle closes over it and target the R2 level (TP = 108.000) and sell if rejected and target the 0.382 Fibonacci level (TP = 103.500). It has to be said that the 1D RSI has turned sideways since August 25th. This is a potential sign that the bullish trend is losing strength.
Prior idea:
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$6E1! futures gap up, bullish for EURUSDVery brief follow up with the EURUSD short term bull case I was building last week, and finally put on a trade on Friday before close, both the Euro FX futures CME:6E1! gapped up, and the MOEX:DX1! futures gapped down. If this follows through, that bodes well for my AMEX:FXE calls.
I will add, the options market in AMEX:FXE are not very liquid. You will find yourself buying on the ask and likely selling on the bid. I tried to get an inbetween the market fill and it just wasn't happening. But, if the move is big enough through the next couple weeks, hopefully the profit still turns out fairly tidy.
Futures open on a Sunday are not exactly something you can count on for the general direction, sometimes not even for the next day, but hey, it looks good for my trade at the moment, I'll take it. We'll see what tomorrow holds and hopefully the next ~2 or so weeks.
DX - US$ Index on the way to the Center-line.In previous posts I already showed how DX is moving towards the CL.
It failed two time, then they cleaned out the Stop/Losses and now DX is on it's way to the Center-line.
Now that we have good confirmation, it would be a no brainer to load the boat even more on a pullback at the CIB line. (yellow).
DX1! - Dollar Index at equilibriumSo, here we have the USD Index at the Centerline at a balanced level.
What if the US$ starts go north?
I would say, markets, which are btw. also totally overbought, are tanking.
This scenario is on point with the CPI today.
Obvious or a fluke?
As always, anything can happen, even a new spike in the Indexes.
DX1! | DXY | US DOLLAR INDEX FUTURESSLO2 @ 105.15 ⏳
SLO1 @ 104.50 ⏳
TP1 @ 103.40
TP2 @ 102.40
TP3 @ 101.70
TP4 @ 100.55
📈 The 2D TF is showing the probability of an UTBO @ 103.85 🙏
✍️ If UTBO happens, I'm anticipating the following:
AUDUSD...DT 📉
EURUSD...DT 📉
GBPUSD...DT 📉
NZDUSD...DT 📉
USDCAD...UT 📈
USDJPY...UT 📈
🔑
DT = DOWNTREND
TF = TIME FRAME
UT = UPTREND
UTBO = UPTREND BREAKOUT
✨ Curve Analysis Analyzed Using P2P INDi
— A Supply/Demand Indicators: This indicator helps you identify key levels of support and resistance.
✨ Uptrend Breakout Analyzed Using TEMASHA
— This indicator helps you identify profitable scalping opportunities.
DXY First 1W MA50 test since March. Bullish or bearish?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has come the closest it's been to the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) in 6 months (since March 09 2023). So far the price action has shown a bearish reversal sentiment as the Higher Lows trend-line of the rally since the July 14 bottom, broke last week, but the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supported. This bearish sentiment will be confirmed however if the price gets rejected on the 1W MA50, i.e. test it and close the 1W candle below it.
In that case we will open a sell on the spot and target the 1D MA200 again and Support 1 at 103.000. If after that the price closes a 1D candle below, we will sell again towards Support 2 (102.000).
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DXY: Crossed under the 6 month Support. Sell signal.The US Dollar Index crossed today under the S1 (100.800) for the first time since February 2nd and this sets in motion the second part of this new bearish leg of the Channel Down pattern. The 1D timeframe turned oversold (RSI = 28.999, MACD = -0.360, ADX = 23.314) and with the 1D RSI imitating the November 11th 2022 Low (as well as the MACD), it is likely to get a short term rebound until the oversold state normalizes.
We will use this potential bounce as a sell entry and target the bottom of the Channel Down (TP = 97.770), which potentially completes also a -6.66% decline from the top.
Prior idea:
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USD is now bullishThe USD has given a couple of bullish signals and these are:
1. A higher high and breakout close of the highest close in the last 10 candles;
2. the MACD is turning up, crossed up the signal line too;
3. the VolDiv is beginning to turn upward and significantly turned up (white dot trigger);
4. The higher high and higher low pattern to bottom out of a downtrend had just happened, although a bit later than projected (points 1 to 5). Look forward to a higher high surpassing 106.62 and its a clear bull primary trend.
105.62 is the upside target. Then possibly 101 the downside target.
Heads up!
ps. There is something about the spike in the USD... a combination of Powell talk and the Feds raising interest rates, with a equity market panic attack. Note the imminent latter.
This also affects a lot of other plays, Gold and Crude oil, for example. Crypto may be affected but Bond rates and prices definitely!
DXY: Aiming at a new Low. Long term bearish trend intact.DXY is having the strongest bearish 1D candle since the May 31st rejection at the top of the long term Channel Down. The 1D time frame is deep in red technicals (RSI = 36.647, MACD = 0.090, ADX = 40.756) but the fact that the price crossed under the 1D MA50 gain, calls for more selling.
Based on the previous bearish leg, we aim at a medium term correction of -4.85%, thus our target is structured TP = 99.700. Long term target is at a -6.66% (TP = 97.770) but only after a rebound, but until then our strategy will be updated with a new idea.
Prior idea:
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