DXY Is King Dollar dead?Yes it is a catchy title but isn't far off from what is happening on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since October. This weekly chart shows the strong rejection on the late September Top, which was formed neatly on the Rising Resistance (Higher Highs line) that has been in effect since the November 2008 High.
That High along with the March 2015 formed similar patterns after their rejections: first sudden drop to the 1W MA50 (blue) and then structured 2 year decline supported by a declining level (Lower Lows). Notice that DXY's bottom, hence the best level to buy is when the weekly RSI makes a double bottom (more like either Lower Lows or Higher Lows). The second Low has been the most optimal entry to buy.
We are far from that scenario now and even though the 1W RSI has dropped dramatically, the USD holders can only hope at best for a rebound as the price is approaching the 1W MA50. Of course the price action doesn't necessarily need to repeat past patterns, but this 14 year Channel Up is definitely a pattern to consider.
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Dx1
DXY Major bearish break-out ahead of 1D MA200 test!The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) eventually made the bearish break-out we expected as it broke below the Bullish Megaphone pattern that it has been trading in since January 2022:
As you see, the break below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was almost on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone, was supporting this bullish pattern since June 16 2021! Naturally its break-out has been a major event and the price almost reached the next MA in line, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
We now see the price rebounding and it shouldn't come as a surprise as it hit exactly the 1.785 (blue) Fibonacci extension from the last low. Also there is the (green Support Zone) to consider from the May 13 High.
As a result, we expect a rebound to test either the 1D MA100 or 1D MA50 as Resistances and accumulate more sellers. A closing below the 1D MA200, would be a bearish continuation for us, targeting the 101.300 (May 30 Low).
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DXY Approaching multiple Support levels but no confirmed buy yetThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been pulling back since the September 28 High. Technically it has been trading within a long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern since the start of the year. Today the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 15. With the 1D RSI approaching the 41.00 Support, which has formed 3 out of the 4 total Lows of the Megaphone, this is starting to align major markers for a long-term buy that targets the next .382 Fibonacci extension in line, the 5.382 at 118.00.
For us it would be best to enter after confirmation as the selling pressure from the bond yields is strong and that confirmation can be given after the MACD makes a Bullish Cross. Until then it would be best to stay on the sidelines. As you see the Megaphone's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) is considerably lower than then 1D MA50 this time.
We are only willing to sell if the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is slightly below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone, giving us good tolerance levels hence a solid confirmation. In that case we will be targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
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Here is the deal with the USD...UP... within the next three weeks.
First, it has completed the Cup & Handle pattern, a very reliable pattern. Now on the breakout and the projection is mapped (dotted aroow line).
Second, technical indicators of the MACD are bullish, and continue to support an uptrend. There is no bearish divergence observed.
Third, the other set of technical indicators for money flow, and volume are also supporting the continued upside, with no indication of bearish divergence.
Finally, the weekly TD Sequential Sell Setup just completed (green box with black background), with a small kink... that the 8th and 9th candle highs are not higher than the 7th candle high. According to TD Sequential rules, we can expect that at some point in the next three candles (or so), the 7th candle high would be taken out and exceeded in an attempt to Perfect the TD Sequential Sell Setup.
So... expect the USD to end up in the range around the white ellipse.
Perhaps then we might see some real signs of the USD abating its bull run?
Note that with a massive bull run on the USD, markets are being affected badly, and money flow is unusually into the USD (exiting most other markets). Furthermore, the longer this stretches, the worse the unwinding becomes with commodities when the USD retraces. It is like an overstretched rubber band, and its dicey before we know who would release it first... the tension followed by the release of that tension. Oof...
DXY Can drop even lower. Buy and sell levels long-term.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been pulling back since the September 28 High. Technically it has been trading within a long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern since the start of the year. As you see, the price is below the 4H MA50 (red trend-line), and since at least May 30, the Low is formed at least on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is the level to enter if you are looking for a long-term buy that targets the next .382 Fibonacci extension in line, the 5.382 at 117.825. There is also the 62.20 1W RSI Support to consider before entering. Note that if the 4H MA50 breaks upwards first, it is a bullish break-out signal.
We are only willing to sell if the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is slightly below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone, giving us good tolerance levels hence a solid confirmation. In that case we will be targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
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DXY USDollar Monthly ContinuousThe bigger picture look at the US Dollar shows the potential for much higher, or lower from where the multi year latteral chop between 90.00 and 100.00 has been trading.
A breakout above 103, would have the US Dollar searching for the 88% target at 115.00.
Cloud support at 96.00 Area
Complete Dollar (DXY) Top Down Analysis =Where Is It Headed Now?Traders and Investors,
Dollar has been on a run again and it is moving towards our multi year target of 113 which we predicted nearly 2 years ago. Although it completed a W pattern and was inside an FCP zone, it did not have a substantial correction. On smaller time frames, it showed a little retaracement but that was not enough. The strength in dollar is taking it to our next multi year target of 113 zone. This zone again will have potential to push the price down or at least sow it a bit. After that we will have 116 as a new intermediate resistance followed by 127 zone.
In this DXY (Dollar) technical analysis we will study few scenarios which can help in understanding what is about to come next few days/weeks.
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DXY Two levels it can reverse massively on this 30 year Channel!The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been rising all year in the aftermath of the Fed to decide to raise the interest rates in their battle to lower the extreme levels of inflation. As a result, the USD has been gaining against the basket of major world currencies. From a technical perspective though, the time is approaching that it may reverse massively downwards as it is meeting two key long-term rejection levels.
The first and most important is the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 30 year Channel Down pattern, which started after the August 1992 Low! As you see this Channel has so far two Lower Lows (green arrows) and two Lower Highs (red arrows). The most recent of the latter was printed on last week's 1W candle. The price hit the top of the Channel Down and got instantly rejected. However, with this week's worse than expected CPI, we see the current 1W candle in green, attempting to hit the top again. Until we close a weekly candle above it, we have to consider this level as a possible long-term trend reversal/ rejection for the DXY.
If the USD Index does break and close above it, then we will come across very quickly another key long-term rejection level, and that is the Higher Highs trend-line of the 13 year Channel Up pattern that started in the aftermath of the Housing Crisis in 2009. As you see, so far the Higher Highs trend-line has made three contacts with that line (red Flags). The next (if the Channel Down breaks) should be around 114.00. That is the second long-term candidate level for rejection.
This historic price action shows that potentially, going short at the current levels on the U.S. Dollar, offers a low Risk high Return set-up, at least on the long-term. Of course, the macroeconomic environment has to keep up in order for the technicals to play out, especially being in this highly inflationary environment. A key factor is the Fed's Interest Rate (blue trend-line). As mentioned above, this has been rising since the start of the year, causing this parabolic rally on DXY. We see that in the course of the past 30 years, every time the Interest Rate dropped, the DXY was following downwards.
As a result, if the Fed decides by the start of next year that the job has been done and that inflation may be (partially at least) controlled, the can start cutting the Interest Rate back in order to stimulate the stock market, which has been suffering all year long. A mere hint/ announcement by the Fed of such intention early, can cause the DXY to reverse before the Interest Rate even starts decreasing, as it happened after 2006. The times we live in are unique in terms of the fundamentals and more likely than not the battle to control an inflation caused by years of abuse can take an equal amount to years.
At last, if you are a long-term investor looking for a confirmed level to sell, that would be below the Higher Lows trend-line, as it happened in December 2002.
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USD Cup & Handle BreakoutIt has been a rather long time since I looked at the US Dollar Index Futures chart. Pulled out the chart and surprise!
Since June 2022, the weekly USD chart had actually completed a Cup & Handle pattern, retested the resistance turned support at 105, and now is on a tear rocketing upwards. Technical indicators although stretched for a bit, appear to have renewed momentum, crossing over and upwards in alignment.
The daily chart shows some level of stalling in late August, and pushed further upwards late last week, closing at a multi-year high.
In an inflationary environment, with the Fed bent on continuing to raise rates and accepting painful costs, the USD is likely to rise further. Cup & Handle pattern projections put it above 120. This has many many implications, both as the USD rises, and when the USD is categorically above 110, 115 and 120. This USD move will be the backdrop of many new trends over the next couple of months to years, giving traders and investors many opportunities if handled correctly. Watch for them!